Core Viewpoint - The divergence between medium to long-term bond yields and short-term bill rates reflects the current credit supply and demand dynamics, with recent declines in bill rates indicating a stronger influence from credit attributes rather than funding factors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Bond and Bill Market Analysis - Since July 22, there has been a notable divergence between medium to long-term bond yields and short-term bill rates, with the 10Y government bond yield at 1.72%, up 4 basis points from July 21, while the 3M bill discount rate fell to 0.50%, down 71 basis points [3]. - Bill market rates exhibit both funding and credit attributes; recent declines in bill rates suggest a stronger influence from credit attributes, as evidenced by the slight increase in DR007 to 1.52%, up 3 basis points from July 21 [3][4]. - The volatility of bill market rates tends to be greater in the latter part of the month, indicating banks' adjustments in credit supply, which may reflect increased credit issuance in the latter half of the month [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications and Future Outlook - Investors are currently trading on the "anti-involution" narrative and its impact on commodity prices, which may affect the attractiveness of bond assets [4][5]. - The sustainability of the "anti-involution" logic depends on the breadth of rising commodity prices and their impact on real economic growth, with a stronger influence on PPI growth compared to CPI growth [4]. - In the medium term (one to two quarters), the probability of bond yield declines is greater than increases, given ongoing economic challenges and the need to lower overall financing costs [5]. - In the short term (one to two weeks), bond yields are expected to decline, as the market has passed the peak pressure of the current adjustment phase [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the coming week, the funding pressure is expected to ease, and the central range of DR001 is likely to fall back to the range of 1.35% - 1.40%, but there is still a probability of sporadic frictions. The funding pressure on certificates of deposit (CDs) will ease, but the supply - demand pressure remains. With a maturity scale of over one trillion yuan in the coming week, CD yields may decline with fluctuations [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Liquidity Tracking 1.1 Hotspot Interpretation 1 - The central bank's draft for comments aims to cancel the freezing of collateral for bond repurchases to promote bond market opening and facilitate the central bank's bond - buying restart. This will enhance the expectation of the central bank's bond - buying, improve bond market liquidity, optimize the demand for high - rating and high - liquidity bonds, and increase secondary - market bond supply, with more positive than negative impacts [10]. 1.2 Hotspot Interpretation 2 - At a press conference, the central bank stated that small and medium - sized banks' bond investments should maintain a reasonable level. While it is reasonable for small and medium - sized banks to appropriately increase bond holdings within the regulatory scope, they need to balance investment returns and risk - taking. Currently, the bond investment proportion of most small and medium - sized banks is relatively stable, and the risk of large - scale reduction in rural commercial banks' bond investments is small [11]. 1.3 Central Bank Operations - In the past week (7/14 - 7/18), the central bank net injected 1.4 trillion yuan of short - term liquidity through open - market operations, including 200 billion yuan of net - invested term - repurchase and 1.3 trillion yuan of net - invested 7 - day reverse repurchase. As of 7/18, the central bank's reverse - repurchase balance was 1.73 trillion yuan. In the coming week (7/21 - 7/25), with the maturity of 1.73 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases and 20 billion yuan of MLF, and considering the end of the tax period and reduced government bond supply pressure, the central bank is likely to conduct net withdrawals. In July, the central bank has 1.5 trillion yuan of MLF and term - repurchase maturing [12][13][14]. 1.4 Government Bond Issuance - In the past week, the net government bond payment was 42.88 billion yuan, and in the coming week, it is expected to be 23.99 billion yuan, indicating a reduced supply pressure. The net payment pressure is relatively large on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. As of 7/18, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 57.5%, and that of new local bonds was 51.8%. The government bond supply pressure is expected to be relatively small in the second half of July, but relatively large in August and September [16][18]. 1.5 Bill Market - In the past week, most bill interest rates declined, especially the 6 - month bill interest rates. Currently, the bill interest rate trend is still significantly weaker than the seasonal level, reflecting slow credit demand recovery [25]. 1.6 Fund Review - Funds were tight first and then eased. With large - scale net injections by the central bank, the tax period passed smoothly. On 7/18, DR001 rose to 1.46%, DR007 to 1.51%, R001 to 1.49%, and R007 to 1.51%. The stability of non - bank fund prices was stronger than that of inter - bank fund prices. Term, institutional, and market stratifications of funds all converged to some extent. The market trading volume declined, the overnight trading proportion in the inter - bank market remained stable, and that in the exchange market increased. The net lending of the banking system decreased significantly, the net borrowing demand of core non - bank institutions decreased slightly, and the net lending demand of core non - bank net lenders increased [28][32][33][39][43]. 1.7 Inter - bank CDs - In the past week (7/14 - 7/20), CDs were issued worth 947.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of 170.9 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term decreased. The issuance interest rates of CDs of state - owned and joint - stock banks first increased and then decreased, and the secondary - market yields also showed the same trend. In the coming four weeks, the maturity amounts are 1.0765 trillion yuan, 376.7 billion yuan, 598.2 billion yuan, and 907.1 billion yuan respectively, with relatively large pressure in the coming week [50][54][56]. 2. Institutional Behavior Tracking 2.1 Secondary - market Transactions - The market fluctuated significantly in the past week, with a slight increase in trading - oriented players' influence and a weakening of rural commercial banks' allocation strength. Different types of bonds had different buyer and seller structures. For example, rural commercial banks, funds, and other products were the main buyers of interest - rate bonds, while joint - stock banks, securities firms, and city commercial banks were the main sellers [61]. 2.2 Institutional Duration - The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds continued to rise, while the transaction duration of general credit bonds decreased, and that of secondary - tier bonds increased [62][65]. 2.3 Institutional Leverage - The bond - market leverage ratio was 107.04% in the past week, continuing to decline from the previous week [65].