Core Insights - Nvidia is adjusting the specifications for its Rubin platform's HBM4, raising the Speed per Pin requirement to over 11Gbps, which necessitates design revisions from major HBM suppliers [1] - The demand for Nvidia's previous generation Blackwell products has exceeded expectations due to the AI boom, leading to adjustments in the production timeline for the Rubin platform [1] - The mass production of HBM4 is now expected to be delayed, with the earliest production anticipated by the end of Q1 2026 [1] Group 1 - TrendForce indicates that SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron have all revised their HBM4 product designs in response to Nvidia's stricter specifications [1] - Samsung is positioned to be the first supplier to pass validation for HBM4, utilizing its advanced 1Cnm process technology, which may give it a competitive edge in supplying high-spec Rubin products [1] - SK Hynix is expected to maintain a significant supply advantage in 2026 due to pre-existing HBM contracts [1] Group 2 - Nvidia's product strategy shift is significantly impacting the HBM4 validation timeline, as the demand for Blackwell series products is projected to grow substantially in the first half of 2026 [2] - Nvidia has raised its shipment targets for the B300/GB300 series and increased HBM3e orders, which allows HBM suppliers additional time to adjust their HBM4 products [2] - The anticipated mass production timeline for HBM4 is now expected to fall between the end of Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 [2]

根 据 Tr e n dFo r c e 集 邦 咨 询 最 新 调 查 ， NVIDIA （ 英 伟 达 ） 于 2 0 2 5 年 第 三 季 调 整 Ru b i n 平 台 的 HBM4规格，上修对Sp e e d p e r Pi n的要求至高于11Gb p s，致使三大HBM供应商需修正设计。 此 外 ， AI 热 潮 刺 激 NVIDIA 前 一 代 Bl a c kwe ll 产 品 需 求 优 于 预 期 ， Ru b i n 平 台 量 产 时 程 顺 势 调 整。两项因素皆导致HBM4放量时间点延后，预期最快于2 0 2 6年第一季末进入量产。 Jan. 8, 2026 产业洞察 近期文章精选 TrendForce Tr e n dFo r c e集邦咨询表示，SK h y n i x（SK海力士）、Sams u n g（三星）、Mi c r o n（美光）皆 已重新送样其HBM4产品，并持续调整设计，以回应NVIDIA更严格的规格要求。与竞争对手相 比，Sams u n g的HBM4率先采用1Cnm制程，在b a s e d i e更采用自家晶圆代工厂的先进制程，未 来将能支持相对高速 ...

四大云计算厂商在2026年的资本开支有望达到将近 5900亿美元,同比增长42%,也为英伟达明年业绩高 增长带来了保障。第三季度强劲的业绩表现以及对业 绩指引的上调,应能短期缓解股价压力。 「后续仍面临较大的竞争压力」 在英伟达超高的毛利率情况,各家厂商都有动力去自研 芯片或寻求替代方案,来实现"降本"的诉求。因而公 司当前75%的毛利率能否持续,尤其是对2027财年之 后业绩的不确定性将成为市场关注的焦点。 · 市场并非处于AI泡沫中,而是正在同时经历三 次大规模的平台转型:一是从CPU通用计算到 GPU加速计算的过渡,二是新型应用程序的出 现,三是代理型人工智能(Agentic Al)兴起。 · 英伟达会提前预测和计划市场需求,并与供应 链进行沟通交流,对需求有了较为准确的判 断。但"电力、散热、液冷"都是不可忽视的 排战。 · 从今年年初到2026年底,英伟达对Blackwell和 Rubin架构产品的营收预期已清晰可见,总额达 5000亿美元(约合人民币3.5万亿元)。 · 对OpenAl、Anthropic等公司的战略投资是为 了深化技术合作、而非市场担忧的"循环交 易"。 聚焦美股财报季 11月1 ...

Group 1: Nvidia and Dell Performance - Nvidia's performance is supported by demand from large tech companies and non-traditional clients, with a significant order demand of $20 billion from sovereign funds, doubling year-over-year [1][2] - Despite meeting expectations, Nvidia's future in the Chinese market remains uncertain due to unclear demand for H20 series products and potential export licensing issues for Blackwell series [1][2] - Dell's AI server business shows strong growth, but the profitability of its Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) has declined, leading to lower-than-expected EBIT [2] Group 2: Snowflake's Growth - Snowflake's performance indicates a strong growth trajectory, with revenue growth exceeding 30% in Q2 and a record increase in the number of million-dollar paying customers [2] Group 3: US Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has revised the US Q2 GDP growth rate to an annualized 3.3% and increased the domestic final sales growth rate to 1.9% [3] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to rise by 0.26% month-over-month in July, with a year-over-year increase of 2.87% [3] Group 4: Chinese Market Insights - The Chinese stock market has shown strong performance, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rising 8% and 10% respectively since August [4][5] - Goldman Sachs believes the liquidity-driven bull market in China has further room to extend, supported by current valuation levels and ongoing profit growth [4][5][6] Group 5: Global Market Trends - Asian bond investors are increasingly focusing on "de-dollarization," indicating a shift in asset allocation away from US dollar-denominated assets [7][8] - Structural factors, such as large current account surpluses and aging populations in Asian economies, are expected to drive demand for foreign fixed-income assets [7][8]

财报业绩虽然证实了对人工智能基础设施的需求依旧强劲，但仍未能令投资者满意。作为全球市值 最高的公司，英伟达股价在周三晚间的盘后交易中下跌了 4% ，至约 175 美元。 人工智能芯片制造商英伟达（ Nvidia ）在周三公布财报时表示，第二季度没有来自中国的 H20 芯片销 售收入，当季营收略高于华尔街预期。 英伟达加州圣克拉拉总部。图片来源：Justin Sullivan—Getty Images 自今年 4 月以来，英伟达一直面临针对 H20 芯片对华出口的贸易限制。美国政府自 7 月起开始向部 分获批的中国买家发放许可证，英伟达表示少数中国客户已获得相关许可。但英伟达表示，第二季 度财报中并未包含任何来自中国的 H20 芯片营收。（英伟达指出，第二季度有部分 H20 芯片库存 销往了中国以外的地区，为营收带来 1.8 亿美元的增量。） 本月早些时候，特朗普政府宣布了相关计划，允许英伟达及其竞争对手超威半导体（ AMD ）向获 批的中国买家出售特定人工智能芯片，而美国政府将从销售收入中抽取 15% 的分成。但英伟达表 示，目前尚未有任何实质性进展。 英伟达首席财务官科莱特 · 克雷斯（ Colette K ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报表示，尽管市场对关税问题的担忧有所缓解，但相关影响仍需 持续关注。不过就英伟达(NVDA.US)而言，其受关税的直接影响较为有限，在当前人工智能(AI)需求强 劲的背景下，英伟达有望凭借供应链灵活性等优势实现出色表现。该行将英伟达列为其半导体行业首 选，并维持"增持"评级，目标价为162美元。 以Joseph Moore为首的大摩分析师表示，目前针对硬件的10%关税可能会在未来90天内上调至32%，但 对英伟达的直接影响较小。以数据中心客户为例，当前关税对收入的直接影响约为2%，若税率上调至 32%，影响可能增至6-6.5%。然而，英伟达通过将部分生产转移至北美(如墨西哥)以规避关税，进一步 降低了潜在风险。特别是其GB200等高端产品，由于主要在北美洲组装，受关税影响的可能性更低。 从市场需求角度，该行表示，英伟达的需求端表现尤为强劲，尤其是其Blackwell系列产品已售罄，客 户对价格波动的敏感性较低。分析师指出，当前市场对AI推理能力的需求激增，促使部分客户将GPU 从训练重新部署到推理环节。 关于半导体未来是否会被征税，大摩认为目前尚不明朗。虽然半导体在特定时期 ...