Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is at a critical juncture, with significant opportunities arising, but experts warn that without accompanying reforms, rapid opening could lead to severe consequences [1][10][22] Group 1: Current Status of RMB Internationalization - As of the end of this year, the RMB has become the fourth largest payment currency globally, with a 3.79% share in global payments [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the acceleration of RMB internationalization and the enhancement of capital account openness [10] Group 2: Historical Lessons - The Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s serves as a cautionary tale, where rapid capital account opening without internal reforms led to severe economic turmoil in countries like Thailand and Indonesia [4][6] - Key statistics from the crisis include a 74% depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah and a 43% depreciation of the Thai Baht within months, highlighting the risks of unprepared financial liberalization [4] Group 3: Necessary Reforms for RMB Internationalization - Six essential reforms are identified for successful RMB internationalization: strengthening the domestic circulation system, enhancing technological innovation, improving property rights protection, increasing macro governance efficiency, refining corporate governance, and solidifying capital market functions [13][15][17] - The domestic market must be robust enough to support internationalization efforts; otherwise, opening up could be ineffective [15] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Recommendations include expanding the use of RMB in pricing and settlement of commodities, particularly in strategic sectors like rare earths and high-end manufacturing [18] - Enhancing the cross-border payment environment and reducing reliance on SWIFT and CHIPS through the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is crucial for mitigating potential sanctions [20] - Increasing gold reserves to bolster the international credibility of the RMB is also suggested, aiming for reserves to reach at least half of the U.S. gold reserves [20] Group 5: Conclusion - The industry consensus emphasizes a cautious approach to RMB internationalization, advocating for steady progress while ensuring regulatory capabilities and risk management are in place [22] - The path to RMB internationalization should prioritize stability over speed, ensuring that internal capabilities are solid before pursuing aggressive internationalization strategies [22]

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is a crucial strategy for China to enhance its international competitiveness and respond to external shocks, especially in the context of the ongoing adjustments in the global economic landscape [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Internationalization Progress - Since its initiation in 2009, the RMB has made continuous progress in trade settlement, commodity pricing, international financial transactions, and official reserves, yet its usage still lags behind China's economic scale and international influence [3]. - The acceleration of RMB internationalization is not only an economic necessity but also a key measure to enhance national financial security and strategic autonomy [3]. Group 2: Supportive Factors for RMB Internationalization - The continuous expansion of China's import and export scale, along with diversified market layouts, provides greater space for RMB cross-border payment settlements [5]. - The increasing proportion of RMB usage in energy and mineral trade reflects China's dominant position in the global supply chain, aiding the expansion of RMB applications in trade and investment [5]. - Improvements in the cross-border credit environment, including a decline in RMB interest rates, have led to a rapid growth in cross-border RMB loans, indicating significant potential for RMB usage in credit [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations for RMB Internationalization - It is recommended to further expand the use of RMB in commodity pricing and settlement, leveraging China's advantages in energy, minerals, and strategic high-end industries [1][7]. - Expanding the RMB settlement network, particularly among developing countries and strategic partners, is essential for promoting RMB usage [7]. - Enhancing cross-border payment infrastructure and promoting the CIPS system's participation in global financial governance are critical for increasing the attractiveness of RMB assets [7]. - The proposal includes advancing capital account convertibility, market-oriented RMB exchange rates, and increasing gold reserves to bolster the international credibility of the RMB [7].

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is essential for China to respond to external shocks and enhance its international competitiveness, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][3] Group 1: RMB Internationalization Progress - Since its initiation in 2009, the RMB has made continuous progress in trade settlement, commodity pricing, international financial transactions, and official reserves, yet its global usage remains disproportionate to China's economic scale and influence [3][6] - The sixth Central Financial Work Conference emphasizes building a strong RMB, indicating a new phase for RMB internationalization supported by top-level design and strategic necessity [3][4] Group 2: External Challenges and Opportunities - The increasing uncertainty in the global trade environment, including the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. since 2025, adds pressure on foreign trade, making RMB cross-border usage crucial for reducing exchange rate risks and enhancing pricing power in commodities [4][5] - The global trend of "de-dollarization" accelerated by the weaponization of the dollar and unilateral sanctions presents an opportunity for the RMB to play a leading role [5][6] Group 3: Support Factors for RMB Internationalization - The continuous expansion of China's import and export scale and diversified market layout provide greater space for RMB cross-border payment settlements [6][7] - The rising proportion of RMB usage in energy and mineral trade, along with improvements in the cross-border credit environment, supports the potential for increased RMB usage in global credit markets [6][7] Group 4: Policy Recommendations for RMB Internationalization - Recommendations include expanding RMB usage in commodity pricing and settlement, enhancing cross-border payment infrastructure, and promoting RMB settlement in developing countries and strategic partners [8] - Key measures also involve improving capital account convertibility, market-oriented RMB exchange rates, and increasing gold reserves to bolster the international credibility of the RMB [8]