朋友们可能都听说了，最近美国那边的媒体又在传一个说法，说什么中国"停止抛售美债"，美联储"无奈让步"。听起来挺刺激 的，好像咱们在金融战场上取得了什么重大胜利似的。 事情真的是这样吗？咱们不妨把这个话题掰开了、揉碎了好好聊聊。 说起美债这事儿，就得从最基本的数字说起。根据美国财政部2025年2月18日公布的最新数据，中国持有美国国债的规模已经降 到了7590亿美元。这个数字意味着什么呢？这是中国自2009年以来持有美债的最低水平。 回想一下，在2011年的时候，咱们持有美债的峰值是1.3万亿美元左右。从那时候到现在，总共减持了约5500亿美元，降幅超过 40%。单是2024年一整年，就减持了573亿美元。更有意思的是，2024年全年12个月里，有9个月都在减持，只有4月、6月和11月 增持了一点点。 这些数字告诉我们什么？中国确实在持续减持美债，而且这个趋势已经延续了好几年。从2022年4月开始，咱们持有的美债就一 直保持在1万亿美元以下，每年都在稳步下降：2022年减持1732亿美元，2023年减持508亿美元，2024年减持573亿美元。 那美媒说的"停止抛售"是怎么来的呢？仔细分析一下就会发现，这个说法 ...

【导读】中国人民银行11月24日将在香港招标发行450亿元两期中央银行票据 离岸人民币央票可以调节离岸人民币流动性，是央行稳汇率政策的重要工具之一。数据显 示，今年以来中国人民银行分别于1月、2月、6月、8月、9月在香港招标发行中央银行票 据，发行规模分别为600亿元、600亿元（2期）、300亿元、450亿元（2期）、600亿元。 从此前发行情况看，香港 离岸人民币 央票受到海内外多种类型投资机构的广泛欢迎，投标倍 数一般在2倍以上。 其中， 第八期中央银行票据期限3个月（91天），为固定利率附息债券，到期还本付息，发 行量为人民币300亿元，起息日为2025年11月26日，到期日为2026年2月25日，到期日遇 节假日顺延。 第九期中央银行票据期限1年，为固定利率附息债券，每半年付息一次，发行量为人民币150 亿元，起息日为2025年11月26日，到期日为2026年11月26日，到期日遇节假日顺延。 中国基金报记者 晨曦 人民币重磅消息来了！ 11月20日，中国人民银行官网发布中央银行票据发行公告〔2025〕6号。公告显示， 中国人 民银行11月24日将在香港招标发行450亿元两期中央银行票据。 | 中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines a series of monetary and financial policies aimed at supporting the real economy, optimizing credit structure, and maintaining financial stability. Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - Maintain reasonable growth of money credit by utilizing tools such as open market operations, medium-term lending facilities, and re-lending to ensure ample liquidity [1] - Promote a decrease in overall financing costs by improving the market-oriented interest rate adjustment framework and effectively implementing interest rate policies [1] Group 2: Credit Structure Optimization - Guide the adjustment and optimization of credit structure by utilizing 500 billion yuan for consumer services and elderly care re-lending, as well as new quotas for technological innovation and transformation re-lending [1] - Support key domestic demand areas such as consumption and technological innovation through risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds [1] Group 3: Exchange Rate and Risk Management - Maintain basic stability of the exchange rate by ensuring the market plays a decisive role in its formation and utilizing it to adjust macroeconomic and international balance of payments [1] - Strengthen risk prevention and resolution by systematically addressing financial risks in key areas and enhancing the monitoring, assessment, and early warning systems for financial risks [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded, the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market were stable and active, enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange increased, and their risk management awareness improved. In the short term, the USD/CNY exchange rate will maintain a range-bound and slightly stronger trend. In the medium term, guided by the high-quality growth target of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the central parity of the RMB is expected to rise moderately [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Supply and Demand Relationship Analysis - **Foreign Exchange Market Supply and Demand Balance**: In September 2025, the surplus of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales was $51.023 billion, an increase from the previous value of $14.648 billion. Both the scale of foreign exchange settlement and sales increased. This expansion reflected strengthened trading behavior rather than being driven by single trade, indicating that the supply and demand structure in the foreign exchange market remained basically balanced [9]. - **Forward Foreign Exchange Settlement and Purchase Intentions**: In September, the foreign exchange settlement and sales market showed a pattern of stable exchange rate expectations, increased willingness to settle foreign exchange, and a marginal decline in foreign exchange purchase demand. The spot exchange rate of USD/CNY depreciated by 0.31% compared with the end of last month, and the average volume of inter - bank spot inquiry transactions decreased to $37.517 billion. The collection and settlement exchange rate rose to 63.12%, and the payment and purchase exchange rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points. The forward foreign exchange settlement signing amount increased by about $10.375 billion, and the forward foreign exchange purchase signing amount decreased by about $4.607 billion, pushing the forward net foreign exchange settlement balance to a new high [14]. - **Analysis of Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales Structure**: - **Bank's Own Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: In September, the bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales changed from a surplus to a deficit of $734 million, which might be related to position management and forward performance. The activities of the bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales had limited impact on the overall trend of foreign exchange settlement and sales [12][20]. - **Bank's Agency Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: In September, the difference in domestic banks' agency foreign - related payments and receipts changed from a surplus to a deficit of $308.9 million. The surplus of the current account increased from $41.113 billion to $52.879 billion, with the goods trade surplus rising to $80.481 billion. The deficit of the capital and financial account expanded from $38.8 billion to $57.791 billion [24]. - **Deconstruction of September's Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: - **Securities Investment**: In September, although the deficit of the capital and financial account in agency foreign - related payments and receipts expanded, the trading activity through the Stock Connect mechanism increased. The trading volume of Northbound Stock Connect reached 3.179574 trillion yuan, and the trading volume of Southbound Stock Connect was 6.830467 trillion yuan. The custody volume of RMB bonds by overseas investors also rebounded, reaching about 2.782832 trillion yuan by the end of August [26]. - **Goods Trade**: In September, goods trade under the current account was the main contributor. The global manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.8, indicating a slowdown in expansion. The US manufacturing PMI was 52.0, while China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The uneven global manufacturing recovery limited the driving effect of external demand on China's exports [31]. Recent Views on Exchange Rates - **Short - term**: The US government shutdown led to the delay of major economic data release. The market re - evaluated economic momentum in a "data - lacking" state, and the US dollar entered an expectation - gaming stage. The exchange rate trend reflected a range - bound pattern under the phased repair of the Sino - US expectation difference. It is expected that the USD/CNY will remain in the range of 7.10 - 7.15, and the RMB has moderate appreciation momentum in the short term [4]. - **Medium - term**: The high - quality growth target of the 15th Five - Year Plan will be an important support for the long - term stability of the RMB. If domestic policies continue the path of stable growth centered on technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and the US growth slows down under fiscal constraints and the lag effect of monetary policy, the central parity of the RMB may rise moderately to around 7.00 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly paused its interest rate cut cycle, maintaining the benchmark rate at 4.75% to prioritize currency stability over further economic stimulus [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The seven-day reverse repo rate remains at 4.75%, the lowest level since October 2022, with a cumulative reduction of 150 basis points since September last year [1] - The decision to hold rates steady aligns with the need to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah and assess the effects of previous rate cuts [1][2] - The central bank aims to maintain the stability of the rupiah amid global uncertainties, despite a 2.90% decline year-to-date [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Growth - The inflation rate in Indonesia rose to 2.65% in September, the highest since May 2024, but remains within the central bank's target range [2] - The central bank and government are collaborating to support economic growth, with GDP growth expected to remain below the country's output potential until 2026 [2] - The central bank anticipates that economic growth will slightly exceed the forecast range of 4.6%-5.4% in 2025, with stronger growth expected next year [2] Group 3: Government Stimulus and Credit Growth - The Indonesian government has launched two stimulus packages totaling $2.8 billion, including cash transfers, food assistance, and employment programs [3] - The finance minister has transferred $12 billion from the central bank to state-owned banks to expand credit [3] - Loan growth in September accelerated to 7.7% year-on-year, the highest level since June, although overall credit demand remains weak due to cautious corporate behavior and high loan rates [3]

Core Points - The Central Bank of Argentina announced a $20 billion currency stabilization agreement with the U.S. Treasury [1] - The agreement aims to enhance the liquidity of Argentina's foreign exchange reserves and its regulatory functions [1] - Argentina's financial markets have been experiencing turmoil, with currency depreciation and declines in bond and stock markets [1] Economic Context - The Argentine government, led by President Milei, has sought economic assistance from the U.S. and the International Monetary Fund due to recent financial instability [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen confirmed the purchase of Argentine pesos and the establishment of a $20 billion currency swap framework [1] - Critics in Argentina's economic community view the U.S. intervention as a "dangerous interference" in the country's monetary policy [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 14, the capital market maintained a loose stance; the bond market recovered; the main indices of the convertible bond market declined collectively, with most individual convertible bonds falling; yields of US Treasury bonds across various maturities generally decreased, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang chaired a symposium for experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation, emphasizing counter - cyclical adjustment, expanding domestic demand, building an industrial ecosystem, and supporting foreign trade and investment [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipping and other industries, announcing counter - measures [4]. - The central bank increased the volume of 6 - month term repurchase operations, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan in October [4]. - The central bank's monetary policy department will maintain exchange - rate stability and prevent over - adjustment risks [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank issued rules for central treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit tenders [6]. 3.1.2 International News - Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a potential rate cut this month and that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing an end, warning of a deteriorating labor - market outlook [7]. 3.1.3 Commodities - International crude - oil futures prices turned down, and international natural - gas prices continued to fall on October 14 [8]. 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On October 14, the central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, with a net injection of 91 billion yuan [10]. 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - On October 14, the capital market remained loose, with DR001 rising 0.10bp to 1.314% and DR007 falling 1.81bp to 1.431% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds - **Spot - Bond Yield Trends**: On October 14, affected by the stock - market decline, loose capital, and trade - friction uncertainties, the bond market recovered. Yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year policy - bank bonds declined [15]. - **Bond Tender Results**: Multiple bonds, including those of CDB and Treasury bonds, were tendered on October 14, with details such as issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples provided [17]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On October 14, no credit - bond transaction prices deviated by more than 10% [18]. - **Credit - Bond Events**: Country Garden will hold a creditor's meeting for overseas - debt restructuring on November 5 [19]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible - Bond Indices**: On October 14, A - share indices and convertible - bond indices fell. The convertible - bond market turnover increased, and most individual convertible bonds declined [20]. - **Convertible - Bond Tracking**: Several companies had announcements regarding debt restructuring, lawsuits, cancellation of bond issuance, and early redemptions [22][23]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Bond Market**: On October 14, yields of US Treasury bonds across various maturities generally decreased, and yield spreads between different maturities widened [24][25]. - **European Bond Market**: Yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined on October 14 [27]. - **Prices of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds as of the close on October 14 are presented, including the top 10 gainers and losers [29].

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, announced support for Argentina, revealing details of a $20 billion currency swap agreement and plans to purchase Argentine dollar bonds to assist President Milei during a critical election period [1][3] - Following Becerra's announcement, Argentina's financial markets rebounded, with the peso appreciating against the dollar and dollar bonds rising significantly, alleviating liquidity concerns [1] - Analysts believe U.S. financial support will enhance Argentina's chances of returning to the international bond market by early 2026, reducing uncertainties surrounding Milei's economic plan [1][4] Group 1 - The U.S. is negotiating a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina and is prepared to provide significant backup credit through a currency stabilization fund [3] - Becerra emphasized that the U.S. will not allow market volatility to hinder Milei's major economic reforms, indicating confidence in Milei's leadership despite recent market turbulence [3][4] - Argentina's central bank reduced the one-day repo rate by 10 percentage points to 25%, which limited the peso's gains, reflecting a delicate balance between exchange rate stability and inflation pressures [2] Group 2 - The $20 billion swap exceeds the $18 billion swap agreement with the Chinese central bank, highlighting geopolitical considerations in Latin America [5] - Some U.S. economists criticize Washington's support for Milei's economic policies, warning of potential pitfalls similar to those faced by the IMF in the past [6] - Argentina has faced three debt defaults since 2001 and has struggled to comply fully with IMF program requirements, raising concerns about the sustainability of Milei's market interventions [6]

Core Points - The Argentine government announced the temporary cancellation of export withholding taxes on agricultural products, including grains, beef, and poultry, effective until October 31 [1] - This measure aims to increase the supply of US dollars in the market by encouraging the agricultural sector to sell more products [1] - The Argentine peso has depreciated over 10% against the US dollar in the past month, prompting the central bank to intervene with $1.1 billion in foreign reserves [1] Summary by Category Government Actions - The temporary cancellation of export withholding taxes is a response to ongoing financial market turmoil and aims to stabilize the exchange rate ahead of the upcoming midterm elections on October 26 [1] - Previously, on July 26, the government permanently reduced withholding tax rates on various agricultural products, including beef and poultry from 6.75% to 5%, corn and sorghum from 12% to 9.5%, sunflower seeds from 7.5% to 5.5%, soybeans from 33% to 26%, and soybean by-products from 31% to 24.5% [1] Market Impact - The cancellation of export taxes is expected to boost agricultural sales, thereby increasing the dollar supply in the market [1] - Analysts suggest that while this measure may alleviate immediate pressures, it does not address the underlying political crisis [1]

Group 1 - The Argentine stock market surged by 6% following U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen's supportive signals amid recent market sell-offs in Argentina [1][3] - Bansen committed to providing "all stabilization options" to Argentine President Javier Milei, including currency swap lines, direct repurchases of local currency, and utilizing the U.S. Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) [1][6] - Following the announcement, the Argentine stock market experienced a peak increase of 7% during trading [3] Group 2 - U.S. support will complement a $20 billion program agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was finalized by Milei in April [6] - The Argentine central bank sold $1.1 billion in three days to support the peso, while sovereign bonds faced significant pressure, marking the worst performance in emerging markets [6] - The Milei administration temporarily suspended export taxes on agricultural products to attract more U.S. dollars, indicating a strategy to reduce the depletion of international reserves [6] Group 3 - The upcoming midterm elections on October 26 represent a significant test for Milei, with rising disapproval ratings and a halved lead over the Peronist opposition party [6] - Concerns about Milei's governance have intensified due to bribery allegations, a recent electoral defeat, and challenges to his budget cuts in popular spending areas like education and healthcare [6][8] - Economic recovery under Milei has shown signs of weakness, with a slight contraction in Q2 and expectations of further decline in Q3, alongside high unemployment rates [8]