年末的外汇市场，人民币对美元汇率走出强势行情。 12月23日，离岸人民币升破7.02关口，在岸人民币升破7.03关口，双双创下14个月新高，年内离岸、在 岸人民币对美元汇率累计升幅分别达4.4%和3.7%，波动率降至近十年低位。 人民币对美元双边汇率的走强，需要多维度看待。当前CFETS人民币汇率指数、BIS货币篮子指数等均 较年初有所下跌，这种"一强一弱"的态势，恰恰说明判断人民币价值不能只看单一币种，需立足一篮子 货币的全局视角。 保持汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定，正是基于对汇率波动规律的深刻把握。 实践证明，汇率双向波动、弹性增强才是常态，既能及时释放市场压力，又能防范热钱炒作和资本异常 流动，发挥宏观经济"自动稳定器"的作用。如果盲目赌单边升值，忽视内外部环境的不确定性，很可能 面临风险反噬。 从外部环境看，美联储降息空间已逐步收窄，美元指数不排除阶段性反弹可能，叠加美国中期选举年贸 易政策的潜在波动，人民币升值之路不会一帆风顺。 从内部基本面看，经济新旧动能转换尚未完成，市场预期仍需巩固，贸易顺差扩大与内部需求不足的双 重力量，让人民币汇率始终处于动态均衡的调整过程中。 脱离经济基本面的快速升值， ...

"货币保卫战"突然打响！ 面对持续贬值的韩元汇率，韩国当局12月24日表示，将采取多项新税收措施以稳定外汇市场。另据韩媒报道， 韩国政府近两周来召开系列会议，并向各部门和机构下达了响应措施。受此刺激，韩元兑美元汇率直线猛拉， 日内一度大涨2.5%。 与此同时，日本政府也对汇率市场发出了最强硬的警告。据最新消息，日本财务大臣片山皋月（Katayama） 表示，针对脱离基本面的汇率波动，日本拥有采取"大胆行动"的"自由裁量权"。 韩国"救市" 构持有的法定外汇存款准备金支付利息。 当地时间12月24日，韩国当局表示，韩元过度疲软并非好事，外汇市场将很快就会看到政府的"坚定决心"。 韩国央行、韩国财政部表示，过去两周已多次召开会议讨论韩元近期走弱问题。同时，韩国财政部宣布，将采 取多项新税收措施以稳定外汇市场。 受上述消息刺激，韩元汇率直线爆拉，日内一度暴涨2.5%，最高升至1美元兑1443.79韩元。在此之前，韩元一 度贬值至1美元兑1485韩元，逼近2009年全球金融危机以来的最低水平。 据韩联社报道，韩国政府近两周来召开系列会议，并向各部门和机构下达了响应措施。这些措施能体现韩国政 府稳定汇市的坚定意志和政策 ...

据央行消息，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度（总第111次）例会于12月18日召开。会议 研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用多种工具，加强货 币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。保 持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，促进社会 综合融资成本低位运行。强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自 律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率 的变化。畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率。增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，防范汇率超 调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 ...

汇率战的硝烟往往是无声的，但残酷程度丝毫不亚于热战，7.0关口岌岌可危，中国出口企业利润薄如刀片，就在国家队出手稳汇率的关键时刻，俄罗斯的 一纸抛售令，竟成了最好的"神助攻"，这世上哪有那么多意外？一边是国有大行逆势买入美元，一边是俄罗斯抛出千亿人民币，两股力量在冥冥之中形成了 合力，这场看似矛盾的金融操作背后，到底藏着怎样一盘呵护中国实体经济的大棋？ 7.0关口：出口企业的生死线 12月4日，路透社引述知情人士消息，中国国有大行在即期市场大量买入美元，阻止人民币升破7.0关口，同日，第一财经指出，受美联储降息预期影响，年 末企业结汇需求爆发，人民币短期升值概率极高。 现在俄罗斯因为财政困难，把这些人民币吐出来了，这些钱流向了哪里？流向了外汇市场，被需要人民币的第三方国家、或者被中国进口企业买走了。 对于中国央行来说，正愁市场上人民币买盘太强（都在结汇），突然来了个大卖盘（俄罗斯抛售），这简直是天降甘霖，如果没有俄罗斯的这波助攻，国有 大行可能需要买入更多的美元才能稳住汇率，那意味着我们要消耗更多的外汇储备。 值得关注的是，为什么人民币汇率一定要死守7.0？ 因为现在的全球经济环境太差了，欧美需求疲软，贸易保 ...

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is at a critical juncture, with significant opportunities arising, but experts warn that without accompanying reforms, rapid opening could lead to severe consequences [1][10][22] Group 1: Current Status of RMB Internationalization - As of the end of this year, the RMB has become the fourth largest payment currency globally, with a 3.79% share in global payments [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the acceleration of RMB internationalization and the enhancement of capital account openness [10] Group 2: Historical Lessons - The Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s serves as a cautionary tale, where rapid capital account opening without internal reforms led to severe economic turmoil in countries like Thailand and Indonesia [4][6] - Key statistics from the crisis include a 74% depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah and a 43% depreciation of the Thai Baht within months, highlighting the risks of unprepared financial liberalization [4] Group 3: Necessary Reforms for RMB Internationalization - Six essential reforms are identified for successful RMB internationalization: strengthening the domestic circulation system, enhancing technological innovation, improving property rights protection, increasing macro governance efficiency, refining corporate governance, and solidifying capital market functions [13][15][17] - The domestic market must be robust enough to support internationalization efforts; otherwise, opening up could be ineffective [15] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Recommendations include expanding the use of RMB in pricing and settlement of commodities, particularly in strategic sectors like rare earths and high-end manufacturing [18] - Enhancing the cross-border payment environment and reducing reliance on SWIFT and CHIPS through the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is crucial for mitigating potential sanctions [20] - Increasing gold reserves to bolster the international credibility of the RMB is also suggested, aiming for reserves to reach at least half of the U.S. gold reserves [20] Group 5: Conclusion - The industry consensus emphasizes a cautious approach to RMB internationalization, advocating for steady progress while ensuring regulatory capabilities and risk management are in place [22] - The path to RMB internationalization should prioritize stability over speed, ensuring that internal capabilities are solid before pursuing aggressive internationalization strategies [22]

Core Viewpoint - Recent media claims suggest that China has "stopped selling US Treasury bonds," implying a significant victory in the financial arena, but this assertion is misleading as China continues to reduce its holdings of US debt [1][15]. Summary by Sections China's Holdings of US Treasury Bonds - As of February 18, 2025, China's holdings of US Treasury bonds have decreased to $759 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [2]. - From a peak of approximately $1.3 trillion in 2011, China has reduced its holdings by about $550 billion, a decline of over 40% [2]. - In 2024 alone, China sold off $57.3 billion in US Treasury bonds, with nine months of the year showing a reduction in holdings [4]. Reasons for Reducing Holdings - The reduction in US Treasury bonds is driven by several practical considerations: - Risk diversification is a key factor, as China seeks to allocate its foreign reserves of over $3 trillion across various assets, including European bonds and gold [5]. - Concerns over the weaponization of the dollar, particularly in light of US sanctions on Russia, have prompted a reevaluation of reliance on the dollar [5]. - The need to stabilize the yuan's exchange rate during periods of depreciation pressure has also influenced the decision to sell US bonds [5]. US Federal Reserve's Response - The characterization of the Federal Reserve's actions as "forced concessions" is exaggerated; the Fed is adjusting its monetary policy based on economic data [5][10]. - The Fed has been lowering interest rates, with the federal funds rate dropping from a high of 4.25-4.50% at the beginning of 2024 to a range of 4.00-4.25% [5]. - Internal disagreements within the Fed regarding the pace of rate cuts reflect a normal decision-making process rather than external pressures [7]. Market Dynamics - As of the end of 2024, the total US national debt exceeded $36 trillion, with foreign investors holding approximately 25.4% of this debt [8]. - Japan remains the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds, followed by the UK, which has surpassed China [8]. - The stability of the US Treasury market is primarily supported by domestic demand, indicating that foreign selling has a limited impact on overall market stability [8]. Implications for the Future - The US government's increasing financing needs, with net interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion in the 2025 fiscal year, highlight the importance of attracting buyers for new debt issuances [9]. - While foreign investor reductions may exert some pressure on the US, the adjustments in the market are part of a normal regulatory process rather than a crisis [10]. - For China, reducing US Treasury holdings while increasing gold reserves enhances the safety and yield of its foreign reserves, contributing to the stability of the yuan [11]. - The global financial landscape is gradually diversifying, with a shift away from the dollar's dominance, although this change will be gradual [14].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will issue 450 billion RMB in two phases of central bank bills in Hong Kong on November 24, 2025, to enhance the offshore RMB financial product offerings and improve the RMB yield curve in Hong Kong [2][3]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The eighth phase of the central bank bill has a term of 3 months (91 days), with a fixed interest rate and a total issuance of 300 billion RMB, starting from November 26, 2025, and maturing on February 25, 2026 [4]. - The ninth phase of the central bank bill has a term of 1 year, also with a fixed interest rate, with a total issuance of 150 billion RMB, starting from November 26, 2025, and maturing on November 26, 2026 [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - The issuance of these central bank bills is expected to regulate offshore RMB liquidity and is a crucial tool for the PBOC's exchange rate stabilization policy. The bills have been well-received by various types of investment institutions, with bidding multiples generally exceeding 2 times [5]. - The issuance of offshore central bank bills helps to enrich RMB investment options in the offshore market, enhancing the stability and safety of investors' asset allocations, especially amid ongoing global trade uncertainties [5]. - The PBOC has established a regular mechanism for issuing central bank bills in Hong Kong, which is significant for consolidating Hong Kong's status as an international financial center and promoting the internationalization of the RMB [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines a series of monetary and financial policies aimed at supporting the real economy, optimizing credit structure, and maintaining financial stability. Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - Maintain reasonable growth of money credit by utilizing tools such as open market operations, medium-term lending facilities, and re-lending to ensure ample liquidity [1] - Promote a decrease in overall financing costs by improving the market-oriented interest rate adjustment framework and effectively implementing interest rate policies [1] Group 2: Credit Structure Optimization - Guide the adjustment and optimization of credit structure by utilizing 500 billion yuan for consumer services and elderly care re-lending, as well as new quotas for technological innovation and transformation re-lending [1] - Support key domestic demand areas such as consumption and technological innovation through risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds [1] Group 3: Exchange Rate and Risk Management - Maintain basic stability of the exchange rate by ensuring the market plays a decisive role in its formation and utilizing it to adjust macroeconomic and international balance of payments [1] - Strengthen risk prevention and resolution by systematically addressing financial risks in key areas and enhancing the monitoring, assessment, and early warning systems for financial risks [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded, the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market were stable and active, enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange increased, and their risk management awareness improved. In the short term, the USD/CNY exchange rate will maintain a range-bound and slightly stronger trend. In the medium term, guided by the high-quality growth target of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the central parity of the RMB is expected to rise moderately [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Supply and Demand Relationship Analysis - **Foreign Exchange Market Supply and Demand Balance**: In September 2025, the surplus of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales was $51.023 billion, an increase from the previous value of $14.648 billion. Both the scale of foreign exchange settlement and sales increased. This expansion reflected strengthened trading behavior rather than being driven by single trade, indicating that the supply and demand structure in the foreign exchange market remained basically balanced [9]. - **Forward Foreign Exchange Settlement and Purchase Intentions**: In September, the foreign exchange settlement and sales market showed a pattern of stable exchange rate expectations, increased willingness to settle foreign exchange, and a marginal decline in foreign exchange purchase demand. The spot exchange rate of USD/CNY depreciated by 0.31% compared with the end of last month, and the average volume of inter - bank spot inquiry transactions decreased to $37.517 billion. The collection and settlement exchange rate rose to 63.12%, and the payment and purchase exchange rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points. The forward foreign exchange settlement signing amount increased by about $10.375 billion, and the forward foreign exchange purchase signing amount decreased by about $4.607 billion, pushing the forward net foreign exchange settlement balance to a new high [14]. - **Analysis of Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales Structure**: - **Bank's Own Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: In September, the bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales changed from a surplus to a deficit of $734 million, which might be related to position management and forward performance. The activities of the bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales had limited impact on the overall trend of foreign exchange settlement and sales [12][20]. - **Bank's Agency Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: In September, the difference in domestic banks' agency foreign - related payments and receipts changed from a surplus to a deficit of $308.9 million. The surplus of the current account increased from $41.113 billion to $52.879 billion, with the goods trade surplus rising to $80.481 billion. The deficit of the capital and financial account expanded from $38.8 billion to $57.791 billion [24]. - **Deconstruction of September's Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: - **Securities Investment**: In September, although the deficit of the capital and financial account in agency foreign - related payments and receipts expanded, the trading activity through the Stock Connect mechanism increased. The trading volume of Northbound Stock Connect reached 3.179574 trillion yuan, and the trading volume of Southbound Stock Connect was 6.830467 trillion yuan. The custody volume of RMB bonds by overseas investors also rebounded, reaching about 2.782832 trillion yuan by the end of August [26]. - **Goods Trade**: In September, goods trade under the current account was the main contributor. The global manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.8, indicating a slowdown in expansion. The US manufacturing PMI was 52.0, while China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The uneven global manufacturing recovery limited the driving effect of external demand on China's exports [31]. Recent Views on Exchange Rates - **Short - term**: The US government shutdown led to the delay of major economic data release. The market re - evaluated economic momentum in a "data - lacking" state, and the US dollar entered an expectation - gaming stage. The exchange rate trend reflected a range - bound pattern under the phased repair of the Sino - US expectation difference. It is expected that the USD/CNY will remain in the range of 7.10 - 7.15, and the RMB has moderate appreciation momentum in the short term [4]. - **Medium - term**: The high - quality growth target of the 15th Five - Year Plan will be an important support for the long - term stability of the RMB. If domestic policies continue the path of stable growth centered on technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and the US growth slows down under fiscal constraints and the lag effect of monetary policy, the central parity of the RMB may rise moderately to around 7.00 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly paused its interest rate cut cycle, maintaining the benchmark rate at 4.75% to prioritize currency stability over further economic stimulus [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The seven-day reverse repo rate remains at 4.75%, the lowest level since October 2022, with a cumulative reduction of 150 basis points since September last year [1] - The decision to hold rates steady aligns with the need to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah and assess the effects of previous rate cuts [1][2] - The central bank aims to maintain the stability of the rupiah amid global uncertainties, despite a 2.90% decline year-to-date [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Growth - The inflation rate in Indonesia rose to 2.65% in September, the highest since May 2024, but remains within the central bank's target range [2] - The central bank and government are collaborating to support economic growth, with GDP growth expected to remain below the country's output potential until 2026 [2] - The central bank anticipates that economic growth will slightly exceed the forecast range of 4.6%-5.4% in 2025, with stronger growth expected next year [2] Group 3: Government Stimulus and Credit Growth - The Indonesian government has launched two stimulus packages totaling $2.8 billion, including cash transfers, food assistance, and employment programs [3] - The finance minister has transferred $12 billion from the central bank to state-owned banks to expand credit [3] - Loan growth in September accelerated to 7.7% year-on-year, the highest level since June, although overall credit demand remains weak due to cautious corporate behavior and high loan rates [3]