Report Summary - **Report Title**: "沪铜日评20251205:非美地区电解铜供需预期趋紧支撑铜价" [2] - **Report Date**: 2025-12-05 - **Reporting Company**: Hongyuan Futures Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The expected tightening of the supply and demand of electrolytic copper in non-US regions, along with the increasing expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Data Comparison - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price was 86,060, up 1,770 from the previous day; the trading volume was 225,331 lots, an increase of 99,349 lots; the open interest was 234,570 lots, an increase of 10,586 lots; the inventory was 32,139 tons, an increase of 3,170 tons; the Shanghai copper basis was 265, up 495 [3]. - **London Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the LME 3-month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 11,434, down 14.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 50.44, down 37.94; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 234.51, up 17 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.362, up 0.12; the total inventory was 435,831 tons, an increase of 3,893 tons [3]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a continuous negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased compared to the previous month [3]. - **Demand Side**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cables, copper enameled tapes, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods has decreased compared to last week, and that of recycled copper rods has remained flat. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand procurement [3]. - **Inventory Side**: China's social inventory of electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, while the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange and COMEX has increased [3]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Hold existing long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support level of 83,000 - 85,000 and the resistance levels of 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level of 10,100 - 10,500 and the resistance level of 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; and the support level of 4.8 - 5.0 and the resistance level of 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3].

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 11 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜冲高回落，日内一度站上 7.9 万，但受到中美关税谈判消息扰动，沪铜在尾 盘涨幅回落，国内期现价差平稳，LME 市场因昨库存大降 1 万吨，LME0-3back 结 构再度扩大至 95.78 美金/吨，LME 市场库存紧张趋势凸显，这也令沪伦比值下降， 出口窗口打开，短期 COMEX 铜价>LME 铜>沪铜，这将令国内铜及 LME 铜低库存持 续，基本面对铜 ...