Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market based on the CFTC data, highlighting the implications of potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve and the impact on investment strategies for precious metals [2][27]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Actions - Due to the U.S. government shutdown, CFTC data on futures market positions is only updated until November 18 [2]. - The market perceives a 24.4% chance of a rate cut in January, 44% in March, and 63% in April, prompting investors to consider their strategies during the interim period [2][27]. - The next potential Federal Reserve chairpersons, Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, both support further rate cuts, but Warsh advocates for a balance sheet reduction that could negatively impact cryptocurrencies and stock markets, potentially pressuring gold prices [2][27]. Group 2: Fund Positions in Precious Metals - As of November 18, managed net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 7.9%, while silver and platinum saw declines of 11.1% and 13.8%, respectively [3]. - Year-to-date, net long positions in U.S. futures for gold have dropped by 47%, while silver has increased by 24% [8][9]. - The overall sentiment indicates a significant reduction in long positions across various metals, with a notable increase in short positions for metals other than gold [7]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has decreased by 3.3% recently, indicating that mining stocks have underperformed compared to gold itself [20]. - The gold-silver ratio, a measure of market sentiment, was at 69.38, down 3.6% week-over-week, reflecting a 23.6% decline year-to-date [25]. - The article suggests that if gold prices continue to rise while mining stocks decline, it may signal caution for investors [21]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The article raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential actions if inflation pressures resurface while interest rates are being cut [28]. - The complexity of the market dynamics necessitates close monitoring of the new chairperson's statements for clearer expectations regarding asset prices [27].

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.41% while the Nasdaq fell by 0.25% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.21% [1] - The banking sector showed signs of stabilization, while technology stocks exhibited mixed performance, and Chinese concept stocks remained weak [1] Banking Sector - Major banks such as Goldman Sachs increased by 2.45%, JPMorgan Chase by 2.34%, and other banks like Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Zions Bancorporation also saw slight gains [3] Technology Sector - The technology sector experienced weakness with Intel dropping by 3.11% and Google down by 2.43%, while Tesla and Nvidia also faced declines of over 1% [3] - Conversely, Netflix rose by 1.49% and Microsoft increased by 1.03%, indicating a divergence within the sector [3] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks saw a slight recovery but remained in narrow trading ranges, with the China Golden Dragon Index down by 0.09% [3] - Notable declines included Pinduoduo down by 2.87% and Xpeng Motors down by 2.34%, while Beike rose by 2.94% and Baidu and NIO saw gains of over 1% [3] Gold Market - COMEX gold prices experienced an upward trend, closing up by 1.2% at $4309.3 per ounce, with intraday fluctuations between a low of $4231.2 and a high of $4317.3 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 10, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.26% to 956.4 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 5.44% to 14,737 yuan/kilogram [5]. - Gold prices are maintaining high - level fluctuations as the market has fully priced in interest - rate cuts and there is uncertainty about the future path. Silver has risen significantly again due to the resonance of its "macro - industrial" dual attributes under the uncertain supply tightness. Both London spot silver and Shanghai silver futures have reached new historical highs [5]. - In the future, gold prices will remain high, and silver will show strong resilience due to the imbalance in supply - demand structure and overseas delivery risks. However, investors should be cautious of short - term sharp fluctuations in the silver market and control their positions [5]. - In the long - term, factors such as the Fed's ongoing interest - rate cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, increased great - power competition, and continued central - bank gold purchases will likely push up the long - term center of gold prices. Long - term investors are recommended to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Gold and Silver Prices on December 10, 2025**: London gold spot was at $4,206.15/ounce, London silver spot at $61.34/ounce, COMEX gold at $4,234.20/ounce, COMEX silver at $61.88/ounce, AU2602 at 956.4 yuan/gram, AG2602 at 14,373 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) at 951.2 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) at 14,351 yuan/kilogram. Compared with December 9, 2025, the price increases were 0.6%, 5.8%, 0.6%, 6.0%, 0.5%, 5.6%, 0.5%, and 5.5% respectively [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios on December 10, 2025**: The gold ID - SHFE active price spread was - 5.2 yuan/gram, the silver ID - SHFE active price spread was - 22 yuan/kilogram, the gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) spread was - 5.60 yuan/gram, the silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) spread was - 1,254 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 66.54, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 68.43, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.06 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 1 yuan/kilogram. Compared with December 9, 2025, the changes were 8.1%, 340.0%, 22.6%, 8.7%, - 4.8%, - 5.0%, - 9.6%, and - 150.0% respectively [3]. 3.2 Position Data - **On December 9, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1,047.97 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 15,973.1589 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 256,572 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 54,265 contracts, non - commercial net long positions were 202,307 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 54,166 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 20,945 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 33,221 contracts. Compared with December 8, 2025, the changes were - 0.11%, 0.53%, - 3.66%, - 11.97%, - 1.15%, - 3.20%, 11.17%, and - 10.50% respectively [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **On December 10, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 91,299 kilograms (unchanged from December 9, 2025), SHFE silver inventory was 741,845 kilograms (up 3.35% from December 9, 2025). On December 9, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 36,099,219 fine ounces (down 0.31% from December 8, 2025), and COMEX silver inventory was 455,821,771 fine ounces (down 0.07% from December 8, 2025) [3]. 3.4 Other Market Data - **On December 10, 2025**: The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.61%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18%, NYMEX crude oil was 16.93, the US dollar index was 99.24, VIX was 58.39, the S&P 500 was 6,840.51, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.08. Compared with December 9, 2025, the changes were 0.24%, 1.62%, - 0.09%, 1.12%, 0.14%, - 0.78%, and - 0.03% respectively [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On November 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.09% to 937 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.19% to 12,148 yuan/kilogram [5]. - Due to the increase in the number of unemployment - benefit applicants and poor ADP employment data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has rebounded. According to CME interest - rate tools, the probability has risen above 30%, boosting the precious - metal prices to stabilize and rebound [5]. - After the liquidity risks in US stocks and cryptocurrencies are gradually released, precious metals return to the partial safe - haven logic, which also supports their prices [5]. - In the short term, as the missing US economic data is gradually released, precious - metal prices are expected to stabilize and maintain high - level fluctuations. Short - term attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls report. The strategy is to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [5]. - In the long term, since the Fed is still in an interest - rate cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, US debt is unsustainable, and major - power games intensify, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run, and global central banks' gold purchases continue. The long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up. Long - term investors are advised to mainly allocate by buying on dips [5]. Group 3: Data Summaries Price Tracking - On November 19, 2025, London gold spot was at $4,092.16/ounce, London silver spot was at $51.43/ounce, COMEX gold was at $4,092.80/ounce, COMEX silver was at $51.29/ounce, AU2512 was at 937 yuan/gram, AG2512 was at 12,141 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was at 934.70 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was at 12,140 yuan/kilogram. Compared with November 18, the price changes were 2.1%, 3.9%, 2.1%, 4.1%, 2.0%, 3.9%, 2.0%, and 3.8% respectively [3]. Spread/Ratio - On November 19, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 2.3 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 1 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 2.27 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 976 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 77.18, the COMEX + London main ratio was 79.80, AU2602 - 2512 was 3.06 yuan/gram, and AG2602 - 2512 was 7 yuan/kilogram. Compared with November 18, the changes were 9.0%, - 133.3%, - 31.2%, 5.0%, - 1.8%, - 1.9%, 8.5%, and - 41.7% respectively [3]. Position Data - As of November 18, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1,041.43 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15,218.41892 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 332,808 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 66,059 contracts, non - commercial net long positions were 266,749 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 72,318 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 20,042 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 52,276 contracts. Compared with November 17, the changes were 0.00%, 0.00%, 1.85%, 9.43%, 0.13%, 0.97%, - 0.21%, and 1.43% respectively [3]. Inventory Data - On November 19, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 90,426 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory was 547,685 kilograms. Compared with November 18, the changes were 0.00% and - 2.84% respectively. On November 18, COMEX gold inventory was 37,224,744 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 465,535,121 ounces. Compared with November 17, the changes were - 0.25% and - 0.85% respectively [3]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate - On November 19, 2025, the dollar index was 99.59, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.58%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.12%, NYMEX crude oil was 24.69, the dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.09, VIX was 60.57, and the S&P 500 was 6,617.32. Compared with November 18, the changes were 0.06%, - 0.56%, - 0.24%, 10.32%, 0.02%, 1.42%, and - 0.83% respectively [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, with the weakening US job market, falling consumer confidence index, and relatively controllable inflation pressure, the market trades on the Fed's rate - cut expectations and anticipates an accelerated pace of rate cuts. The market generally expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year. Geopolitical tensions and concerns about US economic stagflation support precious metal prices at high levels, with silver showing more resilience. Before the September rate cut, precious metal prices are likely to remain strong, but volatility may increase. Attention should be paid to the Fed's September meeting and Sino - US economic and trade talks this week [5] - In the long - term, due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the de - dollarization trend, along with continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Gold and Silver - On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, London gold spot price was at $3636.27/ounce (-0.4%), London silver spot price was at $42.12/ounce (0.2%), COMEX gold was at $3674.10/ounce (-0.4%), COMEX silver was at $42.61/ounce (0.0%), AU2510 was at 831.60 yuan/gram (-0.3%), AG2510 was at 10017.00 yuan/kilogram (-0.2%), AU (T + D) was at 828.56 yuan/gram (-0.3%), and AG (T + D) was at 9997.00 yuan/kilogram (-0.1%) [3] 2. Spread/Ratio of Gold and Silver - From September 12 to September 15, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed from -3.54 yuan/gram to -3.04 yuan/gram (-14.1%), the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed from -25 yuan/kilogram to -20 yuan/kilogram (-20.0%), the spread of gold's internal - external market (TD - London) changed from -2.80 yuan/gram to -2.15 yuan/gram (-23.3%), the spread of silver's internal - external market (TD - London) changed from -741 yuan/kilogram to -776 yuan/kilogram (4.8%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio changed from 83.13 to 83.02 (-0.1%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio changed from 86.58 to 86.23 (-0.4%), AU2512 - 2510 changed from 2.48 yuan/gram to 2.50 yuan/gram (0.8%), and AG2512 - 2510 changed from 26 yuan/kilogram to 28 yuan/kilogram (7.7%) [3] 3. Position Data - As of September 12, 2025, compared with September 11, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was at 974.8 tons (-0.32%), the silver ETF - SLV was at 15069.6026 tons (0.00%), the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 324875 contracts (2.87%), the non - commercial short position was 63135 contracts (-4.72%), the non - commercial net long position was 261740 contracts (4.89%), the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 72450 contracts (-2.71%), the non - commercial short position was 18513 contracts (-0.16%), and the non - commercial net long position was 53937 contracts (-3.55%) [3] 4. Inventory Data - On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 53226.00 kilograms (0.52%), SHFE silver inventory was 1243481.00 kilograms (-0.25%), COMEX gold inventory was 38914491 troy ounces (0.01% compared with September 12), and COMEX silver inventory was 527423230 troy ounces (0.55% compared with September 12) [3] 5. Interest Rate/Foreign Exchange/Equity Market - On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.56% (0.09%), the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06% (1.25%), the US dollar index was 97.62 (0.05%), the VIX was 14.76 (0.34%), the S&P 500 was 6584.29 (-0.05%), NYMEX crude oil was 62.60 (0.58%), and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11 (1.14%) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent economic data and Federal Reserve meetings on interest rate expectations and commodity markets, particularly focusing on gold and silver prices, as well as the sentiment in the futures market regarding these precious metals [2][24][25]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 0.9% in July, significantly above the expected 0.2%, indicating the impact of tariffs on local inflation [2][23]. - The Federal Reserve's internal meeting records revealed that only two members advocated for interest rate cuts, while others prioritized controlling inflation over employment [2][23]. - Market sentiment suggests a strong expectation for a rate cut in September, with the likelihood of maintaining this stance into October depending on upcoming economic data [2][24]. Group 2: Futures Market Sentiment - As of August 19, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 8.1% to 441 tons, marking the lowest level in six weeks, while net long positions in COMEX silver increased by 1.9% to 4,477 tons [3][6]. - The article notes that the correlation between gold prices and silver is strong, with silver prices having increased by 29.4% year-to-date [6][9]. - The platinum market saw a slight decrease in net long positions, while palladium remains in a significant net short position, indicating ongoing challenges for these metals [7][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio fell to 14.094X, reflecting a 26.4% decline this year, suggesting that mining stocks have underperformed compared to gold itself [18][24]. - The article highlights the growing importance of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) considerations in investment decisions, impacting the performance of mining stocks relative to commodities [18]. - The article emphasizes the need to monitor the gold-silver ratio as a sentiment indicator, with the current ratio at 86.848, down 1.1% week-over-week [19][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for the Federal Reserve to cut rates while facing rising inflation presents a significant challenge for future monetary policy [25]. - The article suggests that if inflation remains high post-rate cuts, the Federal Reserve may face difficult decisions regarding interest rates in the coming months [25].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Report Date: June 3, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITC Guomao Futures [3] - Researcher: Baishuna from the Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] Group 2: Price and Performance Price Tracking - On May 30, 2025, the prices of London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, COMEX Gold, COMEX Silver, AU2508, AG2508, AU (T+D), and AG (T+D) were $3298.75/oz, $33.13/oz, $3322.40/oz, $33.25/oz, 771.80 yuan/g, 8218 yuan/kg, 767.80 yuan/g, and 8187 yuan/kg respectively [5]. - Compared with May 29, 2025, the price changes were 0.8%, -0.1%, 0.8%, -0.2%, 1.0%, -0.1%, 0.9%, and 0.0% respectively [5]. Spread and Ratio - On May 30, 2025, the spreads and ratios such as gold TD - SHFE active price, silver TD - SHFE active price, gold and silver internal - external spreads, SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios, etc. are presented in the report [5]. - The changes compared with May 29, 2025 varied, with the largest increase of 30.6% in the gold internal - external (TD - London) spread and the largest decrease of 19.14% in COMEX gold non - commercial short positions [5]. Group 3: Position Data Non - commercial Positions - As of May 27, 2025 (weekly data), the non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver, and the positions of gold ETF - SPDR and silver ETF - SLV are provided [5]. - Compared with May 29, 2025, the changes in non - commercial positions of COMEX gold and silver ranged from - 19.14% to 6.22% [5]. Inventory Data - On May 30, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 17,247 kg, with no change compared to May 29, 2025; the SHFE silver inventory was 1,066,885 kg, a 2.99% increase [5]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 38,789,194 troy ounces, unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory was 496,007,980 troy ounces, a 0.43% decrease [5]. Group 4: Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market - On May 30, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.18, a 0.08% decrease compared to May 29, 2025 [5]. - The US dollar index was 99.44, a 0.08% increase; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.89%, a 0.77% decrease; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, a 0.45% decrease [5]. - The VIX was 18.57, a 3.18% decrease; the S&P 500 was 5911.69, a 0.01% decrease; NYWEX crude oil was $60.79, a 0.21% decrease [5]. Group 5: Market Analysis and Strategy Short - term Logic - Trump's decision to raise steel tariffs to 50% and the EU's response, along with the escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe, have led to a significant increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, boosting precious metal prices [5]. - The slowdown of US PCE in April and consumer inflation expectations in June have increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the weak operation of the US dollar index also supports precious metal prices [5]. - However, due to the uncertainty and recurrence of tariff negotiations, the driving force for precious metal prices may weaken if the negotiations ease [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - Against the backdrop of the trade war, the US economy still faces the risk of "stagflation," and the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates in the second half of the year [5]. - With the intensification of great - power competition and the de - dollarization trend, global central banks' gold purchases continue, strengthening the monetary attribute of gold, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged [5]. - The strategy suggests continuous low - buying allocation [5].

Group 1 - International gold prices have rebounded, with spot gold closing up nearly 2% and COMEX gold also showing a similar increase, reaching $3317 per ounce [1][3] - Domestic gold brand prices have risen significantly, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry both quoting gold at 1008 CNY per gram, an increase of 26 CNY from the previous day [3] - The recent surge in gold prices has caught consumers off guard, with many expressing disappointment over the unexpected rise after anticipating further declines [3] Group 2 - The recent price adjustments in gold are attributed to a joint statement from the US and China following high-level economic talks, which boosted market risk appetite and put pressure on gold prices [4] - There has been a noticeable outflow from global gold ETFs since late April, influenced by trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and a cooling of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [4] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to declining dollar credibility, the onset of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and continued purchases by global central banks [4]