美国货币供应量M2已重回疫情期间峰值水平，同时多项通胀指标显示价格压力正在重新积聚，引发市场对通胀"第二波"的担忧。 经济学家警告称， 在当前货币环境下进一步宽松政策可能重演1970年代三轮通胀浪潮的历史悲剧。 最新数据显示，美国生产者价格指数(PPI)升至3.3%的高位，而货币供应量M2的增长率正趋向5%的危险水平。 这一组合令人回想起1970年代的通胀周期 ，当时央行在通胀初步回落后过早放松政策，最终引发了更为严重的第二轮和第三轮通胀冲击。 分析师指出，虽然消费者价格指数(CPI)暂时保持相对稳定，但批发价格的上涨通常会传导至零售端，而货币供应量的快速增长为未来通胀提供了充足"燃料"。 当前形势下， 美联储主席鲍威尔对降息的延缓可能是明智之举。 经济学家担心，如果政策制定者重复1970年代的错误——在通胀尚未完全消除时就急于刺激经济——美国可能面临比过去五年更为严重的价格冲击。 货币供应重返高位，敲响通胀警钟 当前对通胀风险的评估，一个关键变量是M2货币供应量。数据显示，在2020年新冠疫情期间，美联储实施零利率并大幅扩张货币供应，导致M2创下历史性增 幅。随后，美联储通过加息等紧缩政策从系统中回笼了部分 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, which saw its largest rise in three years, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% compared to 2.3% in June, and a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, far exceeding market expectations of 0.2% [1][3] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose sharply, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, the highest since February, and a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, the highest since April 2022 [3][5] - The surge in PPI has led to a decline in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures down 0.36%, S&P 500 down 0.35%, and Dow futures down 0.29%, while the dollar index rose by 0.21% [3][5] Group 2 - A key driver of the PPI increase is the rise in service costs, which increased by 1.1% in July, the largest increase since March 2022, and wholesale and retail profit margins jumped by 2% due to mechanical equipment wholesale [3][5] - The article highlights that the increase in PPI has dampened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, as traders are now less confident in the likelihood of a rate cut due to the unexpected inflation data [5][6] - There is a lack of consensus among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some advocating for caution until inflation is fully under control, while others support immediate cuts [6][8]