美国货币供应量M2已重回疫情期间峰值水平，同时多项通胀指标显示价格压力正在重新积聚，引发市场对通胀"第二波"的担忧。 经济学家警告称， 在当前货币环境下进一步宽松政策可能重演1970年代三轮通胀浪潮的历史悲剧。 最新数据显示，美国生产者价格指数(PPI)升至3.3%的高位，而货币供应量M2的增长率正趋向5%的危险水平。 这一组合令人回想起1970年代的通胀周期 ，当时央行在通胀初步回落后过早放松政策，最终引发了更为严重的第二轮和第三轮通胀冲击。 分析师指出，虽然消费者价格指数(CPI)暂时保持相对稳定，但批发价格的上涨通常会传导至零售端，而货币供应量的快速增长为未来通胀提供了充足"燃料"。 当前形势下， 美联储主席鲍威尔对降息的延缓可能是明智之举。 经济学家担心，如果政策制定者重复1970年代的错误——在通胀尚未完全消除时就急于刺激经济——美国可能面临比过去五年更为严重的价格冲击。 货币供应重返高位，敲响通胀警钟 当前对通胀风险的评估，一个关键变量是M2货币供应量。数据显示，在2020年新冠疫情期间，美联储实施零利率并大幅扩张货币供应，导致M2创下历史性增 幅。随后，美联储通过加息等紧缩政策从系统中回笼了部分 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy by the Trump administration is likely to initially drive up inflation in the U.S., with the potential for future deflation depending on the economic conditions [1][2][3] - The article discusses the divergence in market opinions regarding the impact of high tariffs on U.S. price levels, with mainstream views suggesting that tariffs will push inflation up through import cost transmission, while others argue that it may suppress economic growth and lead to deflationary pressures [2][3] - Historical evidence shows that while tariffs can create cost-push inflation, significant economic contractions can lead to stronger deflationary forces, as seen during the Great Depression and the 2018 trade tensions [3][10] Group 2 - The current economic environment suggests that tariffs are more likely to trigger inflation rather than directly cause deflation, due to three main factors: the relative health of the U.S. economy, the significant increase in tariff rates with limited import substitution options, and a relatively weak dollar [7][8][9] - Inflationary pressures began to manifest in May 2025, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a slight increase, and further price increases are expected as the tariff policy is fully implemented [11][12] - The article notes that the price increases may not be one-time events, as the uncertain and gradual nature of the tariff implementation could lead to sustained inflationary expectations among businesses and consumers [16][17] Group 3 - Other factors influencing inflation include expansionary fiscal policies, such as the "Big and Beautiful" act, which is expected to significantly increase the federal deficit and support inflation levels, and stricter immigration policies that may lead to labor shortages and rising wage costs [19] - Conversely, potential downward pressures on inflation could arise from spending cuts and slowing economic growth, with the International Monetary Fund and OECD lowering their GDP growth forecasts for the U.S. [20]