Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: 长江电子 (Changjiang Electronics) - **Industry**: PCB (Printed Circuit Board) Technology Core Points and Arguments - **Emerging PCB Technologies**: The market is currently flooded with various new PCB technology solutions as the Rubin cabinet approaches shipment and the RubinUltra cabinet plan becomes clearer. There is still no definitive choice between orthogonal backplane and copper cable technology paths for the RubinUltra cabinet [1] - **Focus on CoWoP Technology**: Among the various PCB technology solutions, the CoWoP (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Panel) technology has a strong likelihood of successful implementation and is progressing rapidly. It is expected to transition from the laboratory phase to small-scale production by the end of 2027 and to gradually ramp up to mass production in 2028 [2] - **Cost and Efficiency Benefits**: CoWoP technology allows chips to be directly bonded to PCBs via a silicon interposer, which reduces signal transfer losses, enhances heat dissipation efficiency, and eliminates the need for ABF substrates, thereby lowering costs and addressing substrate capacity shortages [2] - **Value Increase of SLP Products**: The value of SLP (Substrate-like PCB) products used in CoWoP technology is projected to exceed 400,000 yuan per square meter for 24-layer and above SLPs, which is nearly ten times the price of HDI (High-Density Interconnect) and high-layer count products currently used in AI servers [3] Additional Important Content - **Key Players in CoWoP Development**: - **鹏鼎控股 (Pegatron)**: Has a stable mass production capability for high-end SLP products and is actively involved in the CoWoP technology development for NVIDIA [3] - **深南电路 (Shennan Circuits)**: Gradually entering overseas computing power supply due to steady release of substrate capacity and participation in CoWoP technology development [3] - **兴森科技 (XingSen Technology)**: Has strong technical capabilities in substrate technology and is deeply involved in CoWoP technology development since July 2025, anticipating product volume growth [3] - **Other Companies to Watch**: - **沪电股份 (Unimicron)**: Recently announced a $300 million capital expenditure directed towards PCB substrate technology [3] - **胜宏科技 (Shenghong Technology)**: Preparing for production with mSAP equipment, expecting an annual output value of over 1.5 billion yuan [3] - **景旺电子 (Jingwang Electronics)**: Currently ramping up SLP production capacity at its Zhuhai Jinwan factory [3]

Core Viewpoint - The PCB sector is experiencing significant performance growth driven by AI demand, with several key investment themes identified for 2023 [1][2]. Investment Themes - **PCB Upgrade Trend**: The commercialization of CoWoP technology is accelerating, leading to a new round of upgrades in AI PCB products. mSAP capacity, equipment, and technical capabilities will become higher competitive thresholds for PCB manufacturers, presenting investment opportunities across the mSAP supply chain [1][2]. - **CCL Upgrade from M8 to M9**: The transition from M8 to M9 CCL is a definitive trend, with an increasing number of GPUs, ASIC servers, and 1.6T switches adopting M9 CCL. The usage of Q fabric, HVLP 3-4, and hydrocarbon resins will continue to rise rapidly [1][2]. - **Upstream Material Price Increases**: The price of upstream materials is still in an upward cycle, which is expected to further improve profitability [1][3]. - **Rising Demand for Substrates**: Demand for BT substrates is increasing, with continuous price hikes, while ABF substrate demand is beginning to overflow to domestic manufacturers [1][4]. Market Performance - The PCB sector's performance has exceeded market expectations, particularly in the upstream materials and equipment segments, driven by global AI PCB capacity expansion. Companies like Jin'an Guoji and Huazheng New Materials in the CCL segment, and Dazhu CNC and Chipbase in the equipment segment, have shown significant excess returns [2]. Price Trends - The CCL industry average price has increased by 20%-30% in 2025, with expectations for further price hikes in 2026 potentially exceeding those of 2025 due to supply-demand dynamics and raw material price trends [3]. Demand Dynamics - The global AI data center's storage demand is robust, with TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 projected at $52-56 billion, significantly above market expectations. This indicates a strong upward trend in storage chip demand, leading to continuous price increases for BT substrates and the overflow of ABF substrate demand to domestic suppliers [4].

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing structural opportunities driven by AI demand and domestic substitution, characterized by capacity expansion and supply chain security [1][16]. - Global silicon wafer shipments are expected to reach 12.824 billion square inches in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, and this growth trend is projected to continue until 2028 [16]. - The advanced process capacity (≤7nm) is expected to grow from 850,000 wafers per month in 2024 to 1.4 million wafers per month by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% [16]. Group 2: AI Computing - AI capital expenditures are surging, with major cloud service providers (CSPs) increasing their investments in AI infrastructure, leading to growth opportunities in PCB, liquid cooling, optical modules, and HVDC [2][48]. - CSPs' capital expenditures are expected to continue rising, with North American companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta showing significant year-on-year increases in their capital spending [48][52]. - The demand for AI computing is driving the need for high-end PCB products, particularly in GPU acceleration cards, with a clear trend towards advanced technologies such as HDI and CoWoP [56]. Group 3: Storage - The storage industry is entering a "super cycle" driven by AI demand, breaking traditional storage cycle models, with prices rising and technological innovations leading the investment narrative [3]. - Despite expectations of a downturn in 2024, the market is rebounding in the first half of 2025 due to high enterprise storage demand from AI servers and strict capacity control by leading manufacturers [3]. - The transition from planar to 3D DRAM technology is becoming crucial, with the 4F² combined with CBA technology expected to increase bit density by approximately 30% [3]. Group 4: Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector is witnessing a significant shift as major companies like Apple and Meta transition from technology layout to market realization, with AI innovations providing macroeconomic momentum for the industry [9]. - The global sales of AI smart glasses surged by 370% year-on-year in Q3 2025, indicating that the industry has entered a high-growth phase [9]. - The market for optical displays and storage components is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for smart glasses and other AI-driven consumer electronics [9].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the transition from CoWoS to CoWoP faces significant technical challenges, and the reliance on ABF substrates is unlikely to change in the short term [1][2][8] Group 1: Technical Challenges - The CoWoP technology requires PCB line/space (L/S) to be reduced to below 10/10 microns, which is significantly more challenging than the current standards of ABF substrates [5][6] - The current high-density interconnect (HDI) PCB has an L/S of 40/50 microns, and even the PCB used in iPhone motherboards only reaches 20/35 microns, making the transition to CoWoP technically difficult [5][6] Group 2: Supply Chain Risks - Transitioning from CoWoS to CoWoP could introduce significant yield risks and necessitate a reconfiguration of the supply chain, which is not commercially logical given the timeline for mass production [8] - TSMC's CoWoS yield rate is nearly 100%, making a switch to a new technology unnecessarily risky [8] Group 3: Potential Advantages of CoWoP - Despite the short-term challenges, CoWoP technology has potential advantages, including shorter signal paths, improved thermal performance suitable for >1000W GPUs, better power integrity, and addressing organic substrate capacity bottlenecks [10] - The goals of adopting CoWoP include solving substrate warping issues, increasing NVLink coverage on PCBs without additional substrates, achieving higher thermal efficiency without packaging lids, and eliminating bottlenecks in certain packaging materials [10]