2 月债市展望 20260210 摘要 可转债估值已达较高水平，接近 2015 年牛市中期，新券定价甚至超过 当时水平，需警惕高估值风险。 条款调整是近期高溢价率偏股型可转债溢价率压缩的主要原因，存续条 款对可转债估值支撑作用显著。 权益资产配置需求和慢牛预期是配置盘需求的刚性来源，短期内估值中 枢难以受表象问题影响。 2023 年 8 月后可转债供给快速压缩，科技股发新券或改善供给，但政 策效果预计四季度后期显现。 当前策略应聚焦资质好且有存续意愿的老券，这类标的是资金抱团和拔 高估值的主要方向。 价格中枢未明显上升至 150 元以上的转债面临赎回问题，需关注正股的 短期爆发力或具有下修意愿的中低价转债。 预计 2026 年一季度资金面维持平稳宽松，央行大概率续做 6 个月逆回 购，债市收益率或进一步下行。 Q&A 最近可转债市场波动较大，投资者持有体验不佳。请问导致这种情况的主要原 因是什么？ 最近可转债市场波动较大的主要原因包括以下几个方面： 1. 估值水平：从年初以来，可转债的溢价率大幅抬升了 6-7 个百分点，最 近估值波动率也达到了 3-4 个百分点。目前可转债的估值水平与 2015 年牛市中期相 ...

以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 分评级来看，债项评级高评级券（评级为AAA）、中高评级券（评级为AA+）、中评级券（评级为 AA）、中低评级券（评级为AA-）和低评级券（评级为AA-及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为-0.81%、-1.48% 、-1.51%、-1.87%、-2.81%，高评级券跌幅最低。 分转债规模看，大规模转债（债券余额大于20亿元）、中大规模转债（余额在15至20亿元之间）、中规模 转债（余额在10至15亿元之间）、中小规模转债（余额在5至10亿元之间）、小规模转债（余额小于5亿 元）本周涨跌幅分别为-1.42%、-1.59%、-1.93%、-1.49% ...

Group 1 - In Q4 2025, the major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.22% and the Shenzhen Component Index declining by 0.01% [5] - The convertible bond market experienced a high-level fluctuation, with the China Convertible Bond Index increasing by 1.32%, but overall performance was weaker compared to Q3 [5] - The conversion premium rate rose from 44.73% on September 30 to 46.57% by December 31 [5] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China reported that corporate loans acted as a stabilizing force, with technology sectors maintaining double-digit growth, while real estate loans continued to decline [5] - Mortgage lending remains under pressure, and consumer loan growth is relatively slow, indicating a challenging retail loan demand environment [5] - Expectations for 2026 suggest continued corporate loan dominance with retail loans under pressure, influenced by factors such as project releases and fiscal subsidies for small and micro enterprises [5] Group 3 - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 8.4% over the week, indicating a positive trend in the new energy vehicle materials sector [6] - Prices for other materials such as cobalt and silicon carbide showed mixed trends, with cobalt prices declining while silicon carbide prices increased [6] Group 4 - China National Petroleum Corporation's 2026 work meeting emphasized the company's role in energy supply and its commitment to building a strong energy nation [7] - The meeting highlighted strategic goals and key tasks for the current and future periods, focusing on enhancing energy security and supporting national development [7]

以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 本周（2026年1月5日至2026年1月9日，共5个交易日）中证转债指数涨跌幅为+4.45%（上周涨跌幅 为-0.27%），中证全指变动为+5.04%（上周涨跌幅为-0.32%）。2026年以来中证转债涨跌幅为+4.45%， 中证全指涨跌幅为+5.04%。 分评级来看，债项评级高评级券（评级为AAA）、中高评级券（评级为AA+）、中评级券（评级为 AA）、中低评级券（评级为AA-）和低评级券（评级为AA-及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为+1.37%、+2.50% 、+5.16%、+4.83%、+4.10%，中评级券涨幅最高。 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 1、市场 ...

Core Insights - Metaplanet is rapidly growing its Bitcoin holdings, targeting 210,000 BTC by 2027, which would represent 1% of the total Bitcoin supply, while currently holding 35,102 BTC valued at approximately $3.78 billion [1][6][7] - The company has generated $55 million in revenue for fiscal year 2025 through innovative options-based strategies that monetize Bitcoin volatility without selling the underlying asset [2][5][15] - As regulatory clarity improves, 2026 is expected to see increased corporate adoption of Bitcoin treasury strategies, with Metaplanet's model serving as a template for other companies [4][20][24] Company Strategy - Metaplanet's strategy involves transforming Bitcoin from a passive holding into a productive asset through options and lending strategies [2][15] - The company has pivoted from traditional operations to a Bitcoin-focused treasury model, demonstrating a commitment to aggressive accumulation [3][6] - Metaplanet's revenue generation strategies include lending protocols, covered calls, using Bitcoin as collateral, and carry trades, which have shown significant growth [15][17] Market Position - With the recent purchase of 4,279 BTC for $451 million, Metaplanet has solidified its position as the fourth-largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally [6][7] - The company's average purchase price for Bitcoin is $107,606 per coin, indicating a strategic approach to accumulation [3][7] - Metaplanet's success in combining aggressive accumulation with yield generation is being closely monitored by other companies [4][21] Industry Trends - The trend of corporate Bitcoin treasury adoption is expected to accelerate in 2026, driven by improved regulatory clarity and institutional interest [20][24] - Other companies, such as Marathon Digital and Tesla, are also adopting similar strategies, indicating a broader shift in how corporations view Bitcoin [19][20] - The maturation of custody solutions, lending platforms, and derivatives markets is facilitating sophisticated strategies for Bitcoin investment [22]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in cross-year funding prices has been observed, but the central bank's increased reverse repo operations have maintained a balanced liquidity environment. Concerns over government bond supply at the beginning of the year have led to bearish sentiment in the bond market, with a noticeable rise in the yield curve. The implementation of new regulations on fund sales fees is expected to alleviate redemption pressure on bond funds [1][15]. Market Overview - The yield changes for various maturities of government bonds from December 26, 2025, to January 4, 2026, include increases of 4.5 basis points (BP) for the 1-year bond, 1.44 BP for the 2-year bond, and 2.99 BP for the 5-year bond, among others [2][3]. - The bond market experienced a significant decline, particularly in long-term and ultra-long-term bonds, with the 30-year bond futures dropping 1.28%, marking the lowest level since October 2024 [5]. Regulatory Changes - The new regulations on the management of sales fees for publicly offered securities investment funds have been officially implemented, allowing for a longer redemption buffer period of 12 months and easing the redemption fee rates compared to previous drafts. This is expected to reduce the redemption pressure on bond funds [1][15][16]. Primary Market Activity - In the previous week, a total of 9 bonds were issued, amounting to 26 billion yuan, all of which were local government bonds from Beijing. For the upcoming week, 27 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling approximately 157.66 billion yuan, including 4 billion yuan in government bonds and 117.66 billion yuan in local government bonds [7]. International Market Insights - The U.S. long-term treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year treasury yield increasing by 6.3 BP to 4.19%, and the 30-year yield reaching a new high of 4.87%. This increase is attributed to better-than-expected employment data and ongoing expansion in the manufacturing sector, which has reduced demand for safe-haven assets [8][9]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from various institutions have noted that the new regulations on redemption fees for bond funds are a significant positive development, potentially stabilizing the bond market sentiment. However, concerns regarding the supply-demand imbalance for ultra-long bonds remain, and investors are advised to be cautious of re-pricing risks in the yield curve [15][16].

以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 报告摘要 1、市场行情 本周（2025年12月15日至2025年12月19日，共5个交易日）中证转债指数涨跌幅为+0.48%（上周涨跌幅为 +0.20%），中证全指变动为-0.18%（上周涨跌幅为+0.19%）。2025年以来中证转债涨跌幅为+17.06%，中 证全指涨跌幅为+21.62%。 分评级来看，债项评级高评级券（评级为AAA）、中高评级券（评级为AA+）、中评级券（评级为 AA）、中低评级券（评级为AA-）和低评级券（评级为AA-及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为+0.14%、 +0.26%、+1.18%、+0.83%和+1.16%，中评级券涨幅最高。 分转债规模看，大规模转债（债券余额大于20亿元）、中大规模转债（余额在15至20亿元之间）、中规模 转债（余额在10至15亿元之间）、中小规模转债（余额在5至10亿元之间）、小规模转债（余额小于5亿 元）本周涨跌幅分别为+0.39%、+0.28%、+0.33%、+1.40%和+1.40%，中小规模转债和小规模转债涨幅较 高。 分平价来看，超高平价券（转股价值大于 ...

Group 1 - Iren Ltd. is seeking to raise $2 billion through two convertible bond issues, with $1 billion due in 2032 and another $1 billion due in 2033 [1] - The 6.5-year bond tranche is marketed with a coupon rate of 0% to 0.25%, while the 7.5-year issue has a coupon rate of 0.5% to 1% [1] - Both convertible bonds come with a conversion premium of 25% to 30% [3] Group 2 - Iren Ltd. is categorized as a neocloud, a small infrastructure provider addressing the high demand for AI computing capacity [2] - The company's shares fell by 6.4% to $45.38 in after-hours trading [2] - Iren is also conducting a private share offering and plans to repurchase some existing convertible bonds due in 2029 and 2030 [3] Group 3 - Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are involved in the share sale and convertible bond issue [4]

Market Overview - European futures are pointing lower, with the Nasdaq expected to decline by 1% as risk-off sentiment returns to equity markets [3] - Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop, starting December down 5.6%, continuing a trend that saw it lose over 15% of its value in November [3][8] - The US markets had a rally last week, but the liquidity was lower due to the Thanksgiving holiday, making it premature to draw conclusions about the sustainability of this rally [7][14] Economic Indicators - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December is reported at 87.4%, which has provided some relief to the markets, particularly in the tech sector [5][17] - The UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is facing scrutiny over claims of misleading the public regarding the state of the country's finances, with opposition calls for an investigation [3][47] Investment Sentiment - There are ongoing concerns about the strength of the US consumer and whether markets are overvalued, particularly in the context of AI spending and economic conditions [5][30] - The market is characterized by a K-shaped recovery, where the wealthiest are benefiting significantly while a large portion of the population struggles with rising costs [26][27] Sector Performance - European markets showed mixed results in November, with the Zetradax ending about 0.5% lower, while US markets saw gains across major indices [12][13] - The tech sector is under scrutiny for high valuations and potential over-reliance on debt, particularly as mega-cap tech companies shift from asset-light to asset-heavy business models [30][34] Future Outlook - The Fed's dovish stance is expected to influence market dynamics significantly, with potential cuts leading to tighter credit spreads and supporting equities [22][23] - Concerns about inflation and its impact on the consumer are prevalent, with rising costs in healthcare and living expenses potentially affecting consumer sentiment and spending [24][25]

Core Insights - The article discusses the resurgence of convertible bonds, highlighting their growing popularity among both institutional and individual investors, with over $300 billion in outstanding convertible bonds, indicating a potential "golden age" for this asset class [1] Summary by Sections What Are Convertible Bonds? - Convertible bonds are hybrid investments that combine features of both bonds and stock options, providing regular interest payments while allowing conversion into a fixed number of shares of the issuing company's stock [3] Benefits of Convertible Bonds - They offer a steady income stream from interest payments and the potential for profit if the company's stock rises, allowing investors to convert bonds into shares at potentially discounted prices [4] - Convertible bonds are less sensitive to interest rate changes compared to traditional bonds, making them attractive in volatile markets, especially with the potential for interest rates to decline further into 2026 [5] - The convertible bond market is expanding, valued at over $306 billion as of mid-2025, with many tech and AI companies issuing new convertibles to raise capital without immediate equity dilution [6] - They provide access to high-growth companies, as firms like MicroStrategy utilize convertible debt for financing, allowing investors to engage with growth opportunities while mitigating risk [6] - Convertible bonds enhance portfolio diversification by combining equity and debt investments, spreading risk while ensuring steady income [6]