以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 分评级来看，债项评级高评级券（评级为AAA）、中高评级券（评级为AA+）、中评级券（评级为 AA）、中低评级券（评级为AA-）和低评级券（评级为AA-及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为-0.81%、-1.48% 、-1.51%、-1.87%、-2.81%，高评级券跌幅最低。 分转债规模看，大规模转债（债券余额大于20亿元）、中大规模转债（余额在15至20亿元之间）、中规模 转债（余额在10至15亿元之间）、中小规模转债（余额在5至10亿元之间）、小规模转债（余额小于5亿 元）本周涨跌幅分别为-1.42%、-1.59%、-1.93%、-1.49% ...

Group 1 - In Q4 2025, the major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.22% and the Shenzhen Component Index declining by 0.01% [5] - The convertible bond market experienced a high-level fluctuation, with the China Convertible Bond Index increasing by 1.32%, but overall performance was weaker compared to Q3 [5] - The conversion premium rate rose from 44.73% on September 30 to 46.57% by December 31 [5] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China reported that corporate loans acted as a stabilizing force, with technology sectors maintaining double-digit growth, while real estate loans continued to decline [5] - Mortgage lending remains under pressure, and consumer loan growth is relatively slow, indicating a challenging retail loan demand environment [5] - Expectations for 2026 suggest continued corporate loan dominance with retail loans under pressure, influenced by factors such as project releases and fiscal subsidies for small and micro enterprises [5] Group 3 - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 8.4% over the week, indicating a positive trend in the new energy vehicle materials sector [6] - Prices for other materials such as cobalt and silicon carbide showed mixed trends, with cobalt prices declining while silicon carbide prices increased [6] Group 4 - China National Petroleum Corporation's 2026 work meeting emphasized the company's role in energy supply and its commitment to building a strong energy nation [7] - The meeting highlighted strategic goals and key tasks for the current and future periods, focusing on enhancing energy security and supporting national development [7]

以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 本周（2026年1月5日至2026年1月9日，共5个交易日）中证转债指数涨跌幅为+4.45%（上周涨跌幅 为-0.27%），中证全指变动为+5.04%（上周涨跌幅为-0.32%）。2026年以来中证转债涨跌幅为+4.45%， 中证全指涨跌幅为+5.04%。 分评级来看，债项评级高评级券（评级为AAA）、中高评级券（评级为AA+）、中评级券（评级为 AA）、中低评级券（评级为AA-）和低评级券（评级为AA-及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为+1.37%、+2.50% 、+5.16%、+4.83%、+4.10%，中评级券涨幅最高。 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 1、市场 ...

Compared to MicroStrategy's 672,497 BTC valued at approximately $61 billion, Metaplanet's position is smaller but growing fast. The strategic framework is identical: leverage Bitcoin's long-term appreciation to drive shareholder value while using operating businesses to generate reinvestment cash flow. Metaplanet targets 210,000 BTC by 2027—equivalent to 1% of total Bitcoin supply.The revenue model transforms Bitcoin from a passive holding into a productive asset. For fiscal year 2025, Metaplanet generated ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in cross-year funding prices has been observed, but the central bank's increased reverse repo operations have maintained a balanced liquidity environment. Concerns over government bond supply at the beginning of the year have led to bearish sentiment in the bond market, with a noticeable rise in the yield curve. The implementation of new regulations on fund sales fees is expected to alleviate redemption pressure on bond funds [1][15]. Market Overview - The yield changes for various maturities of government bonds from December 26, 2025, to January 4, 2026, include increases of 4.5 basis points (BP) for the 1-year bond, 1.44 BP for the 2-year bond, and 2.99 BP for the 5-year bond, among others [2][3]. - The bond market experienced a significant decline, particularly in long-term and ultra-long-term bonds, with the 30-year bond futures dropping 1.28%, marking the lowest level since October 2024 [5]. Regulatory Changes - The new regulations on the management of sales fees for publicly offered securities investment funds have been officially implemented, allowing for a longer redemption buffer period of 12 months and easing the redemption fee rates compared to previous drafts. This is expected to reduce the redemption pressure on bond funds [1][15][16]. Primary Market Activity - In the previous week, a total of 9 bonds were issued, amounting to 26 billion yuan, all of which were local government bonds from Beijing. For the upcoming week, 27 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling approximately 157.66 billion yuan, including 4 billion yuan in government bonds and 117.66 billion yuan in local government bonds [7]. International Market Insights - The U.S. long-term treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year treasury yield increasing by 6.3 BP to 4.19%, and the 30-year yield reaching a new high of 4.87%. This increase is attributed to better-than-expected employment data and ongoing expansion in the manufacturing sector, which has reduced demand for safe-haven assets [8][9]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from various institutions have noted that the new regulations on redemption fees for bond funds are a significant positive development, potentially stabilizing the bond market sentiment. However, concerns regarding the supply-demand imbalance for ultra-long bonds remain, and investors are advised to be cautious of re-pricing risks in the yield curve [15][16].

以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 报告摘要 1、市场行情 本周（2025年12月15日至2025年12月19日，共5个交易日）中证转债指数涨跌幅为+0.48%（上周涨跌幅为 +0.20%），中证全指变动为-0.18%（上周涨跌幅为+0.19%）。2025年以来中证转债涨跌幅为+17.06%，中 证全指涨跌幅为+21.62%。 分评级来看，债项评级高评级券（评级为AAA）、中高评级券（评级为AA+）、中评级券（评级为 AA）、中低评级券（评级为AA-）和低评级券（评级为AA-及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为+0.14%、 +0.26%、+1.18%、+0.83%和+1.16%，中评级券涨幅最高。 分转债规模看，大规模转债（债券余额大于20亿元）、中大规模转债（余额在15至20亿元之间）、中规模 转债（余额在10至15亿元之间）、中小规模转债（余额在5至10亿元之间）、小规模转债（余额小于5亿 元）本周涨跌幅分别为+0.39%、+0.28%、+0.33%、+1.40%和+1.40%，中小规模转债和小规模转债涨幅较 高。 分平价来看，超高平价券（转股价值大于 ...

Group 1 - Iren Ltd. is seeking to raise $2 billion through two convertible bond issues, with $1 billion due in 2032 and another $1 billion due in 2033 [1] - The 6.5-year bond tranche is marketed with a coupon rate of 0% to 0.25%, while the 7.5-year issue has a coupon rate of 0.5% to 1% [1] - Both convertible bonds come with a conversion premium of 25% to 30% [3] Group 2 - Iren Ltd. is categorized as a neocloud, a small infrastructure provider addressing the high demand for AI computing capacity [2] - The company's shares fell by 6.4% to $45.38 in after-hours trading [2] - Iren is also conducting a private share offering and plans to repurchase some existing convertible bonds due in 2029 and 2030 [3] Group 3 - Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are involved in the share sale and convertible bond issue [4]

Market Overview - European futures are pointing lower, with the Nasdaq expected to decline by 1% as risk-off sentiment returns to equity markets [3] - Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop, starting December down 5.6%, continuing a trend that saw it lose over 15% of its value in November [3][8] - The US markets had a rally last week, but the liquidity was lower due to the Thanksgiving holiday, making it premature to draw conclusions about the sustainability of this rally [7][14] Economic Indicators - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December is reported at 87.4%, which has provided some relief to the markets, particularly in the tech sector [5][17] - The UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is facing scrutiny over claims of misleading the public regarding the state of the country's finances, with opposition calls for an investigation [3][47] Investment Sentiment - There are ongoing concerns about the strength of the US consumer and whether markets are overvalued, particularly in the context of AI spending and economic conditions [5][30] - The market is characterized by a K-shaped recovery, where the wealthiest are benefiting significantly while a large portion of the population struggles with rising costs [26][27] Sector Performance - European markets showed mixed results in November, with the Zetradax ending about 0.5% lower, while US markets saw gains across major indices [12][13] - The tech sector is under scrutiny for high valuations and potential over-reliance on debt, particularly as mega-cap tech companies shift from asset-light to asset-heavy business models [30][34] Future Outlook - The Fed's dovish stance is expected to influence market dynamics significantly, with potential cuts leading to tighter credit spreads and supporting equities [22][23] - Concerns about inflation and its impact on the consumer are prevalent, with rising costs in healthcare and living expenses potentially affecting consumer sentiment and spending [24][25]

Core Insights - The article discusses the resurgence of convertible bonds, highlighting their growing popularity among both institutional and individual investors, with over $300 billion in outstanding convertible bonds, indicating a potential "golden age" for this asset class [1] Summary by Sections What Are Convertible Bonds? - Convertible bonds are hybrid investments that combine features of both bonds and stock options, providing regular interest payments while allowing conversion into a fixed number of shares of the issuing company's stock [3] Benefits of Convertible Bonds - They offer a steady income stream from interest payments and the potential for profit if the company's stock rises, allowing investors to convert bonds into shares at potentially discounted prices [4] - Convertible bonds are less sensitive to interest rate changes compared to traditional bonds, making them attractive in volatile markets, especially with the potential for interest rates to decline further into 2026 [5] - The convertible bond market is expanding, valued at over $306 billion as of mid-2025, with many tech and AI companies issuing new convertibles to raise capital without immediate equity dilution [6] - They provide access to high-growth companies, as firms like MicroStrategy utilize convertible debt for financing, allowing investors to engage with growth opportunities while mitigating risk [6] - Convertible bonds enhance portfolio diversification by combining equity and debt investments, spreading risk while ensuring steady income [6]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is showing a strong consolidation trend, with government bond futures mostly rising, while the interbank bond yields are exhibiting a mixed performance, indicating a short-term impact from tax payments but an overall stable liquidity environment supported by the central bank [1][6]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract down 0.21% at 115.87, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts rose by 0.06% to 108.485 and 105.935 respectively [2]. - The interbank major interest rate bonds showed a mixed performance, with long-term bonds weaker and medium-short bonds slightly stronger. The 30-year government bond yield increased by 0.95 basis points to 2.1555% [2]. International Bond Market - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield rose by 0.3 basis points to 3.459%, while the German bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 2.710% [3]. - In Asia, the 10-year Japanese bond yield surged by 5.6 basis points to 1.819% [4]. - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.52 basis points to 4.137% [4]. Primary Market - The Export-Import Bank's 1.2521-year and 3-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.3836% and 1.5434%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.28 and 7.28 respectively [5]. - The China Development Bank's 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.4699%, 1.7101%, and 1.8961%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.75, 2.86, and 3.25 respectively [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 3000 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1100 billion yuan for the day [6]. - The November LPR remained stable, with the 1-year LPR at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting a lack of adjustment momentum due to stable reverse repo rates [6]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income anticipates a friendly environment for bonds and stocks through 2026, with "fixed income +" products expected to be a core growth area for public funds, projecting returns between 2-5.5% [8]. - CITIC Securities notes that the offshore RMB bond market is likely to see increased liquidity and reduced liquidity premiums due to the expansion of investment institutions [8]. - Guosheng Macro predicts that bond yields will remain volatile, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5%-1.9% [8].