近期，国内资金市场利率呈现全面回落态势。进入2月，1月底资金需求释放完毕，短端利率小幅回落。 央行加大中期借贷便利（MLF）投放力度，市场资金供应充足，抑制中长端利率走势。 | 项目 | 2月3日Shibor | 较1月27日变化 | | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 | % | 基点 | | O/N | 1.3170 | -5.4 | | 1 W | 1.4880 | -7.6 | | 2W | 1.5110 | -8.8 | | 1M | 1.5500 | -0.56 | | 3M | 1.5859 | -1.09 | | 6M | 1.6042 | -0.52 | | 9M | 1.6104 | -1.36 | | 1Y | 1.6215 | -1.55 | 表为Shibor变化 为了满足1月底资金需求，央行上周加大逆回购投放量，导致本周有17615亿元7天期逆回购到期。本周 前两个工作日，央行仅开展了1805亿元逆回购操作，周内央行大概率通过逆回购回笼大量流动性。 预计后期国内资金市场利率将呈现"短涨长跌"格局。临近春节和月中资金需求旺季，短端利率将走强。 央行通过超额续作MLF向市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - A-share main indices closed generally higher, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue chips. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.88%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.77%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined slightly, with over 4,100 stocks rising. Industry sectors generally rose, with national defense and military industry and electronics sectors strengthening significantly, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors led the decline [2]. - Trump's statement strengthened market expectations that the new Fed chair will cut interest rates. Domestically, the economic fundamentals in November were weak, with the PPI - CPI gap widening for two consecutive months, and deflation pressure still existing. The December LPR quote remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations [2]. - The weakening of the economic indicators in November put pressure on the upside of A-shares. However, the positive tone of the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference injected confidence into the market, providing strong support for the bottom of A-shares. This week, the market is in a macro - data vacuum period, and the impact of the external environment on A-shares has increased. The recent expectation of the dovish stance of the new Fed chair has driven the US dollar weaker, and the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in January 2026 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub - main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract (2603) rose 25.2 to 4595.0, and the IC main contract (2603) rose 111.0 to 7240.4 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Various spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. also showed an upward trend. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread increased by 17.8 [2]. - **Futures Seasonal Spreads**: The spreads between current - season and current - month, and next - season and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [2]. - **Futures Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the IF top 20 net positions increased by 1739.0 to - 27,736.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Index Prices**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 13.3 to 4634.06, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 2.3 to 3025.2, the CSI 500 Index rose 95.3 to 7352.0, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 114.0 to 7506.4 [2]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis increased by 10.3 to - 39.1 [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: The A - share trading volume decreased by 241.31 billion yuan to 18,972.42 billion yuan, while the margin trading balance increased by 149.23 billion yuan to 25,315.63 billion yuan. The northbound trading volume decreased by 17.23 billion yuan to 1804.38 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks increased by 47.95% to 75.59%, the Shibor decreased by 0.005% to 1.267%, the closing price of the IO at - the - money call option increased by 12.00 to 56.60, and the implied volatility increased. The closing price of the IO at - the - money put option decreased by 10.40 to 83.20, and the implied volatility increased [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **LPR Announcement**: On December 22, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (the same as last time), and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5% (the same as last time) [2]. - **Trump's Statement**: Trump hopes that the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and the market are performing well, rather than "strangling the market" due to inflation concerns [2]. 3.5 Key Data to Watch - December 27, 9:30: China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for November [3]

Group 1 - The Shibor short-term rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.303% [1] - The 7-day rate increased by 0.5 basis points, reaching 1.431% [1] - The 14-day rate decreased by 0.7 basis points, settling at 1.51% [1] - The 1-month rate went up by 0.2 basis points, now at 1.523% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic market interest rates are showing a "short weak long stable" trend, with short-term funding demand weak and market rates declining [1][3] - As of November 24, the overnight, 1-week, and 2-week Shibor rates are reported at 1.316%, 1.447%, and 1.542%, respectively, showing decreases of 19.2, 6.7, and 0.8 basis points compared to November 17 [2][3] - The 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 9-month, and 1-year Shibor rates remain unchanged at 1.52%, 1.58%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.65% [2][3] Group 2 - A total of 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature this week, with the central bank conducting 338.7 billion yuan in reverse repo operations [3] - There is a high probability that the central bank will roll over or exceed the 900 billion yuan in medium-term lending facility (MLF) that is maturing this week [3] - Overall, the impact of the central bank's reverse repo operations on liquidity is minimal, but the likelihood of stronger domestic market interest rates next week is high due to increased funding demand entering December [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is showing a strong consolidation trend, with government bond futures mostly rising, while the interbank bond yields are exhibiting a mixed performance, indicating a short-term impact from tax payments but an overall stable liquidity environment supported by the central bank [1][6]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract down 0.21% at 115.87, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts rose by 0.06% to 108.485 and 105.935 respectively [2]. - The interbank major interest rate bonds showed a mixed performance, with long-term bonds weaker and medium-short bonds slightly stronger. The 30-year government bond yield increased by 0.95 basis points to 2.1555% [2]. International Bond Market - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield rose by 0.3 basis points to 3.459%, while the German bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 2.710% [3]. - In Asia, the 10-year Japanese bond yield surged by 5.6 basis points to 1.819% [4]. - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.52 basis points to 4.137% [4]. Primary Market - The Export-Import Bank's 1.2521-year and 3-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.3836% and 1.5434%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.28 and 7.28 respectively [5]. - The China Development Bank's 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.4699%, 1.7101%, and 1.8961%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.75, 2.86, and 3.25 respectively [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 3000 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1100 billion yuan for the day [6]. - The November LPR remained stable, with the 1-year LPR at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting a lack of adjustment momentum due to stable reverse repo rates [6]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income anticipates a friendly environment for bonds and stocks through 2026, with "fixed income +" products expected to be a core growth area for public funds, projecting returns between 2-5.5% [8]. - CITIC Securities notes that the offshore RMB bond market is likely to see increased liquidity and reduced liquidity premiums due to the expansion of investment institutions [8]. - Guosheng Macro predicts that bond yields will remain volatile, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5%-1.9% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The overnight SHIBOR rate decreased to 1.4670%, reflecting a drop of 5.3 basis points, while the 7-day SHIBOR rate fell to 1.5960%, down by 2.4 basis points. In contrast, the 3-month SHIBOR rate increased slightly to 1.5600%, up by 0.1 basis points [1]. Summary by Categories - **Overnight SHIBOR**: The rate is reported at 1.4670%, which is a decrease of 5.3 basis points [1]. - **7-Day SHIBOR**: The rate stands at 1.5960%, showing a decline of 2.4 basis points [1]. - **3-Month SHIBOR**: The rate has increased to 1.5600%, with a slight rise of 0.1 basis points [1].

Group 1 - The overnight SHIBOR rate is reported at 1.4100%, down by 6.1 basis points [1] - The 7-day SHIBOR rate is reported at 1.5150%, down by 10.2 basis points [1] - The 3-month SHIBOR rate is reported at 1.6520%, unchanged from the previous day [1]