Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For the 02 contract, it is gradually following the delivery logic, and its subsequent performance will be affected by the spot market. With a neutral valuation currently, it is not recommended to enter the market. [3] - For the 04 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. The expected decline in Week 5 when MSK opens bookings may suppress the futures market, but as freight rates fall, the scale of rush - shipping may increase, potentially weakening the downward slope in March. Its valuation fluctuates within a reasonable range, and it is advisable to watch for possible corrective market trends. [3] - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for far - month contracts. However, far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Overall, it is still recommended to focus on shorting the 10 - contract on rallies. [3] Summary by Related Content Market Data of Contracts - EC2602 closed at 1719.0 with a 0.06% increase, trading volume of 2673, and an open interest of 8878 with a decrease of 1583. [2] - EC2604 closed at 1202.7 with a 2.26% decrease, trading volume of 40524, and an open interest of 40832 with an increase of 788. [2] - EC2606 closed at 1421.8 with a 0.16% decrease, trading volume of 2189, and an open interest of 3048 with a decrease of 82. [2] - EC2608 closed at 1524.9 with a 0.50% decrease, trading volume of 153, and an open interest of 1321 with an increase of 15. [2] - EC2610 closed at 1111.0 with a 0.63% decrease, trading volume of 1331, and an open interest of 7581 with a decrease of 44. [2] - The spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 516.3, with a day - on - day increase of 28.8 and a week - on - week decrease of 69.0. [2] - The spread of EC2504 - 2606 was - 219.1, with a day - on - day decrease of 25.5 and a week - on - week increase of 62.2. [2] Index Data - The SCFIS (European Line) index on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39 points, with an 8.94% increase from the previous period and a 3.05% increase in the previous period. [2] - The SCFI (European Line) index on January 9, 2026, was 1719 dollars/TEU, with a 1.72% increase from the previous available data. [2] News and Market Conditions - On January 15, Hamas officials stated they were ready to transfer the administrative power of the Gaza Strip to a technical - bureaucrat committee. [4] - On January 15, Maersk announced the resumption of the Suez Canal route for its MECL service due to improved stability in the Red Sea. [4] Shipping Company Quotations - In Week 3, MSK's booking price was 2600 dollars, other alliances had small declines, with a central price of 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market. [7] - In Week 4, MSK's booking price was 2700 dollars, other alliances remained stable, with a central price of 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market. [7] - In Week 5, MSK's booking price was 2400 dollars (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week), PA was 2200 dollars, MSC was 2600 dollars, OA was 2700 dollars. The overall central price was 2500 - 2600 dollars, equivalent to 1750 - 1820 points on the futures market. [7]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the freight futures market, mainly analyzing the prices, trends, and influencing factors of European line freight futures contracts, as well as recent news and market conditions [2]. 1. Futures Contract Price and Change 1.1 Futures Contract Prices and Fluctuations - EC2512: The price was 1749.4, with a change of 0.119%, and the trading volume was 22970, and the open interest decreased by 4048 to 21157 [2]. - EC2602: The price was 1636.6, a decrease of 3.19%, the trading volume was 27879, and the open interest increased by 3551 to 32901 [2]. - EC2604: The price was 1172.0, a decrease of 1.33%, the trading volume was 5188, and the open interest increased by 73 to 15483 [2]. - EC2606: The price was 1364.7, a decrease of 4.16%, the trading volume was 532, and the open interest increased by 144 to 1567 [2]. - EC2608: The price was 1472.1, a decrease of 4.712%, the trading volume was 336, and the open interest decreased by 5 to 1208 [2]. - EC2610: The price was 1129.9, a decrease of 0.67%, the trading volume was 609, and the open interest increased by 225 to 1833 [2]. 1.2 Month - to - Month Spread - EC2512 - 2504: The spread was 577.4, with a daily increase of 19.1 and a weekly decrease of 142.5 [2]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 112.8, with a daily increase of 57.2 and a weekly decrease of 203.4 [2]. - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was 464.6, with a daily decrease of 38.1 and a weekly increase of 60.9 [2]. 2. Index Data 2.1 Index Values and Changes - Data Index: Updated weekly on Mondays. As of 2025/11/10, it was 1504.80 points, an increase of 24.50% from the previous period and a decrease of 7.92% expected in the next period [2]. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, a decrease of 1.56% from the previous period [2]. - CCFI: Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 1366.85 points, an increase of 3.25% from the previous period and an expected increase of 2.37% in the next period [2]. - NCFI: Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 911.73 points, a decrease of 5.8% from the previous period and an expected increase of 17.43% in the next period [2]. 3. Market Analysis and Outlook 3.1 Market Movement on Wednesday - In the morning, the market oscillated, and in the afternoon, it dropped across the board due to the news that the Houthi rebels officially announced to stop attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea [2]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Contracts - EC2512: Its valuation is neutral and will gradually follow the delivery logic. The freight rate in late November will determine the implementation degree of the price - holding in December. It is expected to mainly follow the changes in spot prices and the rhythm of shipping companies' price announcements in the future [2]. - EC2602: Its valuation is more difficult to anchor. In the short term, it is expected to mainly follow the trend of EC2512. If the peak - season cargo - booking situation is gradually realized in the future, it may have more room for growth. The peak freight rate usually occurs 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year) [3]. - EC2604: It is a off - season contract. In the short term, it will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the peak - season logic. Considering the expected greater supply pressure next year and the off - season in April, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3]. 4. Recent European Line Quotation Situation 4.1 Cargo - Booking Situation - In week 45, the cargo - booking situation was good; in week 46, the PA cargo - receiving improved slightly, but the shipping capacity in this week was extremely low. The pressure increased in the second half of November. Among them, PA improved, while MSK faced increased cargo - receiving pressure, and the pressure on OA decreased due to sailings suspension compared with the first half of the month [4]. 4.2 Price Levels - In week 46, the average landed price was 2000 dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures). Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 dollars for the second half of November, but MSK opened the booking at 2250 dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period). It is expected that the quotes of other shipping companies will be gradually lowered this week, and they may also announce a price increase for December [4]. - In week 47, the offline PA price was around 2000 dollars, OA was 2200 - 2400 dollars, and MSK was 2000 dollars. OOCL lowered the online price for November by 300 dollars to 2600 dollars [4]. - On Tuesday, MSK opened the booking for week 48 at 1900 - 2000 dollars, equivalent to 1340 - 1400 dollars on the futures [4]. 5. Related News - On 11/12, the Houthi rebels issued a statement saying that they would end their targeted actions against maritime interests related to Israel and stop armed attacks on merchant ships passing through the Red Sea. However, they warned that if the enemy continued to invade Gaza, they would resume military operations and the navigation ban on Israeli ships [5]. - On 11/12, Hamas stated that it had completed the first phase of the cease - fire agreement. A senior Hamas member said that the previous cease - fire agreement was only a "preliminary agreement" and not a final comprehensive one. The first - phase implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement had been in place for a month, but the second - phase negotiation had not started yet. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel was determined to enforce the cease - fire agreement with a "heavy hand" in Gaza and Lebanon [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current valuation of the December contract is moderately high. With multiple price increase announcements and long - term contract signings from November to December as positive drivers, it is recommended to adopt a "buy - on - dips" strategy, waiting for next week or continue to trade based on the PA price cut/MSK's flat opening [3]. - The February contract's valuation is difficult to anchor, with high uncertainty. It is expected to follow the December contract's trend in the next month [3]. - The April contract is for the off - season. It will fluctuate within a narrow range under the current peak - season logic and face greater supply pressure next year. A "sell - on - rallies" strategy is recommended [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - For EC2512, the closing price was 1804.0, down 2.16%, with a basis of - 491.3, trading volume of 59519, and an open interest of 31365, an increase of 1259 [2]. - For EC2602, the closing price was 1553.6, down 1.86%, with a basis of - 240.9, trading volume of 11387, and an open interest of 18455, an increase of 2222 [2]. - For EC2604, the closing price was 1161.1, down 1.26%, with a basis of 151.6, trading volume of 4119, and an open interest of 14910, an increase of 450 [2]. - For EC2606, the closing price was 1379.6, down 1.69%, with a basis of - 66.9, trading volume of 366, and an open interest of 1521, an increase of 110 [2]. - For EC2608, the closing price was 1471.1, down 1.10%, with a basis of - 158.4, trading volume of 226, and an open interest of 1352, an increase of 23 [2]. - For EC2610, the closing price was 1132.0, down 0.04%, with a basis of 180.7, trading volume of 442, and an open interest of 1280, an increase of 218 [2]. Month - spread Data - The EC2512 - 2504 month - spread was 642.9, down 25.0 day - on - day and up 21.6 week - on - week [2]. - The EC2512 - 2602 month - spread was 250.4, down 10.4 day - on - day and up 39.3 week - on - week [2]. - The EC2502 - 2604 month - spread was 392.5, down 14.6 day - on - day and down 17.7 week - on - week [2]. Spot Index Data - The SCFIS (European Line) index on October 27, 2025, was 1312.71, up 15.11% from the previous period [2]. - The SCFI (European Line) on October 31, 2025, was 1344 dollars/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period [2]. - The CCFI on October 31, 2025, was 1323.81, up 2.37% from the previous period [2]. - The NCFI on October 31, 2025, was 965.62, up 17.43% from the previous period [2]. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, in week 49, there was one additional sail - canceling, and two ships postponed departure. The average weekly capacity in November and December is 290,000 and 336,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as sail - canceling, it is 286,000 and 313,000 TEU. The capacity in week 45/46/47/48 of November was 310,000/250,000/277,000/325,000 TEU respectively, with greater pressure in the second half of November [2]. - In the first half of November, OA and MSK had no pressure in receiving goods, while the PA alliance was short of goods and led the price cut [2]. Recent European Line Quotation - Downstream customers are finalizing the cabin bookings for early November (week 45). In the first half of November, the PA alliance cut prices the most, to 1700 - 1900 US dollars, GEMIN to 2100 - 2200 US dollars, and OA to 2250 US dollars, with an average of about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1430 points on the futures market) [4]. Related News - On October 31, Israel attacked Gaza for the third consecutive night, impacting the cease - fire agreement. The cease - fire agreement mediated by the US has been in effect for three weeks, but issues such as Hamas' disarmament and Israel's withdrawal schedule from Gaza remain unsolved [5]. - On November 1, Qatar warned that Gaza might fall into a "neither war nor peace" situation, calling on the international community to intervene [5]. - On November 3, the Houthi armed forces stated that they would strongly respond to any Israeli aggression [5].