手术机器人：医疗器械黄金赛道，中国企业出海正当时 20260114 摘要 手术机器人市场被认为是医疗器械行业的黄金赛道，预计 2026 年全球 市场规模将达数百亿美元，腔镜机器人占据主要份额，直觉外科收入预 计达上百亿美元。 微创医疗腔镜机器人在中国市场快速发展，截至 2025 年 12 月中旬累 计中标超 160 台，仅 2025 年新增近 120 台，海外市场也呈现爆发式增 长，预计 2025 年订单达 100 台。 精峰医疗已在港股上市，成为中国首家、全球第二家同时获得多孔、单 孔腔镜及自然腔道手术机器人注册的公司，截至 2025 年 6 月已签订 61 台全球销售协议，收入快速增长，海外收入占比 41%。 骨科机器人领域，国内龙头企业如爱康医疗、春立医疗、三友医疗等积 极布局，推出各自产品并处于商业化阶段，预计国内脊柱与关节手术量 将保持稳健增长。 沛嘉医疗预计 2026 年将是发展拐点，神经介入业务已实现扭亏为盈， 瓣膜介入业务受益于价格调整预计手术量增长，反流瓣产品有望带来显 著营收增量。 Q&A 手术机器人行业的商业模式和市场前景如何？ 手术机器人行业的商业模式主要是设备带动耗材的模式，这类似于 ...

Summary of ERCP Surgical Robot Conference Call Industry Overview - The ERCP (Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography) surgical procedure volume in China is rapidly increasing, projected to reach nearly 400,000 cases in 2024, which is only 10% of the actual demand of approximately 4 million cases. By 2030, the volume is expected to rise to 800,000 to 1 million cases, indicating significant market potential [3][1]. - There is a notable shortage of qualified ERCP doctors, with only about 3,700 to 6,000 capable of performing the procedure, which is insufficient to meet the demand [9][8]. Key Points and Arguments - **ERCP Robot's Purpose**: The ERCP robot aims to address traditional surgical pain points, such as reducing radiation exposure for medical staff, standardizing operations, and shortening the learning curve for doctors from over 200 cases to potentially 100 or even fewer [1][9]. - **Remote Operation Capability**: The robot's remote control feature is expected to significantly enhance its adoption in grassroots hospitals. Future integration with 5G/6G technology could enable remote surgeries, providing technical support to remote areas [1][13]. - **Open-source Consumables**: The robot's consumables are designed to be open-source, allowing the use of any company's standard consumables, which helps reduce the financial burden on patients [15][1]. - **Hospital Acceptance**: Acceptance of the ERCP robot by hospitals depends on actual product demand. As a necessary technology, it has a high priority for procurement, especially if it can significantly improve efficiency and outcomes [17][1]. Clinical Challenges and Technical Difficulties - **Technical Challenges**: ERCP remains one of the most challenging therapeutic endoscopic techniques, with a long learning curve. The main difficulties include insufficient preoperative assessments, complex intubation processes, and radiation exposure risks [2][5]. - **Feedback Technology**: The first-generation ERCP robot's force feedback technology is not yet ideal, but doctors can adapt through learning. Safety mechanisms are in place to prevent excessive force [22][2]. - **Comparative Performance**: Initial robot-assisted surgeries do not significantly reduce operation time compared to traditional methods, but they lower the required skill level and number of assistants, thus reducing overall human resource investment [7][1]. Market Competition and Future Prospects - **Limited Competition**: Currently, only a few companies have launched finished ERCP surgical robots, with others still in the development phase. Companies like Aohua have patented technologies that are difficult for competitors to replicate in the short term [20][14]. - **Domestic vs. Imported Equipment**: The gap between domestic and imported ERCP equipment is narrowing, with domestic models like Aohua A7,400 showing improvements in imaging quality and operability [30][1]. - **Commercial Potential**: The commercial prospects for ERCP surgical robots are substantial. If policy restrictions on pricing are lifted, large hospitals may require 20 to 30 units or more, indicating a strong demand for this technology [32][1]. Additional Insights - **Patient Recovery and Complications**: There is no significant difference in complication rates between robot-assisted and traditional ERCP procedures, suggesting similar safety profiles [12][1]. - **Global Market Outlook**: The demand for surgical robots is high globally, with interest from doctors in regions like Europe, Africa, Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong, indicating a positive outlook for international market penetration [25][26]. - **Future Developments**: The integration of AI technology in surgical robots is anticipated, enhancing functionalities such as automated processes and improved interaction between humans and machines [23][1].

Investment Logic - The company's inventory digestion is nearing completion, and the medical equipment upgrade is driving a recovery in bidding procurement, alongside accelerated expansion in overseas markets, indicating an upcoming inflection point in performance [1] - Starting in 2024, the execution of equipment upgrades will significantly delay in-hospital bidding rhythm, while the company is accelerating the launch process of AQ400, leading to a proactive inventory adjustment cycle, resulting in short-term performance pressure and temporary losses due to unmet equity incentive targets and cost disturbances [1] - By Q2 2025, the company's revenue has begun to grow quarter-on-quarter, and losses have narrowed, suggesting that overall performance is expected to improve steadily from the end of this year [1] Product Development and Market Position - The Olympus X1 endoscope has received approval, and a surge in high-end endoscope procurement is imminent, with the new AQ400 model expected to compete directly with X1 and offer 3D imaging advantages, facilitating rapid expansion in the high-end market of top-tier hospitals [2] - Olympus, as a global leader in flexible endoscopes, will see revenue growth in this region with the launch of its latest X1 model and related products, which are anticipated to trigger a procurement boom in the domestic market, particularly among top-tier hospitals [2] - The company's AQ400 high-end model, designed to compete with X1, features EDOF imaging performance and a 3D differentiation advantage, positioning it competitively to benefit from accelerated industry procurement demand and market share growth [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is strategically developing an ERCP robot to address clinical pain points related to high radiation exposure, aiming to become the first in the world to launch this product between 2027 and 2028 [3] - There is a significant patient population in China with biliary and pancreatic diseases, with approximately 3 million patients needing ERCP procedures, but only about 300,000 procedures currently performed, indicating a low penetration rate of 10% compared to mature markets like the U.S. [3] - The ERCP robot can facilitate remote operations, physically separating doctors from radiation exposure, optimizing procedural workflows, enhancing surgical precision, and reducing the need for contrast agents, thereby alleviating patient burdens and shortening training periods for doctors [3] Financial Projections - The company is focusing on R&D innovation and high-end breakthroughs, with ongoing recovery in bidding procurement and inventory digestion, alongside the anticipated high-end endoscope procurement boom driven by Olympus X1's launch [4] - The AQ400 is expected to contribute significant incremental revenue due to its upgraded performance and 3D differentiation advantage [4] - The company’s exclusive ERCP robot is designed to address domestic clinical pain points, with clinical trials progressing smoothly and a projected launch between 2027 and 2028 [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 753 million, 895 million, and 1.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.51%, 18.78%, and 22.97% respectively; net profit estimates are 10 million, 81 million, and 150 million yuan, with growth rates of -50.57%, 675.33%, and 85.96% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and a shift to net losses in the first half of 2025, with ongoing adjustments in domestic operations and successful expansion in overseas markets [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 260 million yuan, a decrease of 26.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -41 million yuan, shifting from a profit of 6 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 137 million yuan, down 25.84%, with a net profit of -12 million yuan, compared to a profit of 3 million yuan in the previous year [1]. Business Segments - Domestic terminal bidding showed signs of recovery, but revenue was under pressure due to strategic adjustments in response to market trends and product iterations [2]. - The overseas business continued to expand, with successful product approvals and market promotions in multiple countries, driving revenue growth [2]. - In H1 2025, revenue from endoscope equipment was 240 million yuan (-29.6%), while revenue from endoscopic consumables increased by 40% to 10 million yuan, and maintenance services revenue rose by 122% to 10 million yuan [2]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin decreased to 62.39%, down 9.07 percentage points, while the net margin was -15.71%, a decline of 17.29 percentage points [2]. - The increase in overseas revenue proportion contributed to the decline in gross margin, alongside higher expense ratios in sales, management, R&D, and finance [2]. Product Development - The company launched the new flagship model AQ400, enhancing its competitiveness in the high-end endoscope market, with expectations for increased domestic procurement demand following the approval of Olympus's new model [3]. - R&D investment in H1 2025 was 74 million yuan, accounting for 28.35% of revenue, leading to the launch of several new products and ongoing development of ERCP surgical robots, projected to be launched between 2027-2028 [4]. Revenue Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2025-2027 is 753 million, 892 million, and 1.057 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.51%, 18.40%, and 18.48% respectively [4]. - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 10 million, 80 million, and 143 million yuan, with growth rates of -50.57%, 671.67%, and 78.71% respectively [4].

Summary of Aohua Endoscopy Conference Call Company Overview - Aohua Endoscopy derives approximately 30% of its revenue from overseas markets, with a strong focus on expanding its business in Europe [2][4] - The company primarily focuses on the soft endoscope segment, particularly in the field of gastroenterology, while also dealing with some related consumables, which contribute a smaller portion of revenue [4] Industry Insights - Soft endoscopes are considered the gold standard for gastroenterology screening, benefiting from increased public health awareness and significant growth potential in diagnostic volumes [2][5] - The domestic production rate for soft endoscopes is currently below 20%, while Olympus holds over 70% market share, indicating substantial room for domestic replacements [2][5] Key Developments - Aohua's flagship model, the AQ400, received its registration certificate in June 2025 and won a bid for Suzhou's top-tier hospital in August, with a bid amount close to 6 million RMB [2][5] - The AQ400 is expected to be officially launched by the end of Q3 or Q4 2025, becoming a significant driver for revenue growth in 2026 [2][5] - Following the normalization of anti-corruption measures, the tendering process for medical equipment has returned to a regular pace, with an expected improvement in the volume of gastrointestinal endoscope tenders in 2025 compared to 2024 [2][6] Competitive Landscape - Olympus's latest model, the X1, has received domestic registration, which is anticipated to trigger a new wave of procurement [2][6] - Aohua's AQ400 is designed to compete directly with Olympus's X1, featuring innovative designs such as eDOF depth-of-field expansion and 3D static imaging, which may help capture additional market share during the upcoming replacement wave [2][6] Future Plans - Aohua plans to continue the iterative update of soft endoscopes while also venturing into emerging businesses such as ultrasound endoscopes and single-use endoscopes [2][7] - The company is also developing surgical robots for ERCP procedures to address clinical pain points, with an expected market launch between 2027 and 2028 [2][7] - In 2025, Aohua completed a share buyback and implemented an employee stock ownership plan, reflecting confidence in future performance [3][7] Conclusion - Aohua Endoscopy is well-positioned in the growing soft endoscope market, with strategic plans for product innovation and market expansion, particularly in the context of increasing domestic demand and potential for import substitution [2][5][7]