Sea Limited is a triple threat in the digital economy, and it's often called the Amazon of Asia.Sea Limited (SE 8.74%) is a technology conglomerate based in Singapore. It operates the largest e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia, a globally recognized game development studio, and a booming digital financial-services business. In fact, many Wall Street analysts refer to the company as the "Amazon of Asia" because of its diverse presence in the digital economy.Sea Limited stock has soared by 40% this year, c ...

Core Insights - Financial giants have shown a bullish sentiment towards Sea, with 47% of traders being bullish and 23% bearish, indicating a positive outlook on the stock [1] - The predicted price range for Sea over the last three months has been targeted between $120.0 and $200.0 by large investors [2] - Analysts have set an average price target of $188.0 for Sea, with various firms providing differing ratings and targets [10][11] Options Analysis - A total of 17 unusual trades were identified for Sea, with 11 puts valued at $550,337 and 6 calls valued at $334,090 [1] - The analysis of volume and open interest reveals significant liquidity and interest in Sea's options, particularly within the strike price range of $120.0 to $200.0 [3] - The snapshot of options trading indicates a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments, with notable trades including a bearish call and several puts with varying sentiments [8] Company Overview - Sea operates Southeast Asia's largest e-commerce platform, Shopee, and has expanded from its origins in gaming with Garena [9] - The company also provides financial services through SeaMoney, which includes lending, payment, digital banking, and insurance [9] - As of March 31, 2024, the founder, Forrest Xiaodong Li, holds 59.8% of voting power, while Tencent owns 18.2% of issued shares without voting power [9] Current Market Position - Sea's current trading volume stands at 3,519,593, with the stock price at $139.69, reflecting a slight decrease of -0.25% [13] - The stock is approaching oversold conditions according to RSI indicators, suggesting potential for price movement [13] - An earnings announcement is expected in 109 days, which could impact future trading and investor sentiment [13]

Core Insights - Sea's VIP membership program has shown strong early growth, with a 75% increase in quarterly membership registrations, indicating positive user engagement and retention efforts [1][8] - The company believes it can achieve high GMV penetration rates similar to other regions, despite being in the early stages of market development [1][8] - Sea's growth in Southeast Asia has exceeded previous expectations, with market share increasing faster than the overall market growth [1][4] E-commerce Business Growth - The company projects over 25% growth in e-commerce for 2025, driven by current market momentum and competitive landscape [2] - Despite an increase in commission rates, e-commerce profit margins fell to 0.6% this quarter, with investments focused on logistics and fulfillment capabilities [2] - Buyer frequency increased by 12% year-over-year, and monthly active buyers grew by 15%, reflecting the effectiveness of investments in user engagement [2] Market Expansion Strategy - Sea adopts a selective approach to new market expansions, with a focus on Argentina to leverage existing cross-border infrastructure and operational experience [3] - The decision to gradually cease cross-border operations in Chile and Colombia aims to concentrate resources on key business priorities aligned with long-term strategies [3] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in Southeast Asia remains stable, with no significant changes in market dynamics or competitor behavior [5] - The company does not foresee substantial threats from competitors transitioning to shelf models, as the nature of their platforms differs [5] Logistics and Fulfillment - Over half of the orders are fulfilled through SPX, with continuous improvements in delivery costs and times contributing to growth [6] - Average delivery times in Brazil have decreased by 2 days year-over-year, enhancing service efficiency [6] Gaming Segment Outlook - Following a successful 2025, the company remains optimistic about the growth of "Free Fire" in 2026, with plans for new IP collaborations and game releases [7] AI Integration - The company is excited about AI's potential to create value but will focus on application rather than large-scale capital expenditures [10] - Key applications of AI include improving ad conversion, enhancing product discovery, and increasing customer service efficiency through AI chatbots [10]

12 November 2025 | 2:10AM SGT Equity Research Sea Ltd. (SE) 3Q25 Earnings Review: Robust momentum & market share intact; Buy SE 12m Price Target: $218.00 Price: $155.05 Upside: 40.6% Sea printed a strong 3Q25 as Shopee sustained its robust momentum with GMV +8% qoq/+28% yoy and management raising its FY25 GMV growth guidance from 20% to 25%. Management reiterated its prior messaging for growth to remain priority into next year - while margins may fluctuate qoq (observed this quarter, as we had expected), Sh ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue reached $6 billion, representing a 38% year-on-year growth, while adjusted EBITDA grew by 68% to $874 million [4][34] - Shopee's GMV increased by over 28% year-on-year, with gross orders rising by 28% to 3.6 billion [4][34] - Digital financial services revenue grew by 61% year-on-year to $990 million, with adjusted EBITDA up by 37% to $258 million [20][34] - Digital entertainment bookings increased by 51% year-on-year to $841 million, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 48% [26][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-commerce: Shopee achieved record highs in GMV, gross order volume, and revenue, with a GAAP marketplace revenue of $3.8 billion, up 37% year-on-year [5][34] - Digital Financial Services: The loan book expanded to $7.9 billion, up 70% year-on-year, with a stable 90-day NPL ratio of 1.1% [21][36] - Digital Entertainment: Garena's bookings were up 51% year-on-year, driven by successful campaigns for Free Fire [27][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Brazil, Shopee's GMV growth outpaced the market, with significant improvements in delivery speed and reliability [19][20] - In Taiwan, GMV showed double-digit growth year-on-year, with a strong logistics network supporting growth [11][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue delivering high and profitable growth across all three business lines, focusing on enhancing logistics capabilities and buyer engagement [4][5] - Investments in logistics and fulfillment are seen as critical for long-term competitiveness and profitability [7][12] - The company is leveraging AI to improve consumer retail experiences, enhancing product discovery and seller engagement [16][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining growth momentum, with expectations for Shopee's full-year 2025 GMV growth to exceed 25% [20][34] - The competitive landscape is viewed as stable, with no significant changes noted in market dynamics [54] - The company is optimistic about the future, particularly in expanding its digital financial services and enhancing user engagement through programs like Shopee VIP [15][19] Other Important Information - The Shopee VIP membership program has seen a 75% increase in members, indicating strong user engagement [15][71] - The company is focused on a capital-efficient approach to logistics, primarily leasing rather than purchasing land and warehouses [14][42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth guidance for 2025 and margin trends - Management indicated that the growth guidance reflects current market momentum and competitive landscape, with expectations for a 2-3% EBITDA margin improvement [40][41] Question: Investment areas affecting margins - Management noted that investments in logistics and fulfillment are contributing to margin fluctuations, but overall improvements are expected [40][42] Question: New market entry strategy and Argentina - The rationale for entering Argentina is to leverage existing capabilities from Brazil, with a focus on operational synergies [46][47] Question: Market shares in ASEAN and Taiwan - Management believes they are gaining market share in South Asia and are confident in their position in Taiwan despite competition [49][50] Question: Competitive landscape in Southeast Asia - The competitive landscape is stable, with no significant changes noted, and management does not foresee a major impact from live streaming peers [52][54] Question: Logistics fulfillment percentage and cost outlook - More than half of orders are fulfilled by SPX, with continuous improvements in cost per order and delivery speed [59][60] Question: Outlook for Free Fire in 2026 - Management remains optimistic about Free Fire's growth, with plans for new IP collaborations and game launches [63][64] Question: VIP membership unit economics - The VIP program is still in early stages, with a focus on improving retention and ensuring benefits for both users and partners [71][72] Question: AI investments and applications - Management is excited about AI's potential to enhance user experience and operational efficiency, focusing on practical applications rather than large-scale infrastructure investments [74][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for the third quarter of 2025 reached $6 billion, representing a 38% year-on-year growth, while adjusted EBITDA was $874 million, up 68% year-on-year [4][33] - The loan book for Money expanded by 70% year-on-year, reaching $7.9 billion, with a stable 90-day non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.1% [21][36] - Digital Entertainment bookings grew by 51% year-on-year to $841 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 48% [27][36] Business Line Performance Changes - Shopee's gross merchandise value (GMV) grew by over 28% year-on-year, with gross orders increasing to $3.6 billion [4][33] - E-commerce adjusted EBITDA was $186 million, significantly up from $34 million in the same quarter last year [34] - Digital financial services revenue grew by 61% year-on-year to $990 million, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 37% [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Taiwan, GMV showed double-digit growth year-on-year, with a significant increase in the number of sellers using ad products [11][18] - In Brazil, GMV growth outpaced the market, with improvements in delivery speed and reliability contributing to higher spending patterns among new buyer cohorts [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance logistics and fulfillment capabilities as core pillars of its strategy to strengthen its competitive position [12][14] - Continued investment in AI is expected to improve consumer retail experiences and drive engagement [16][17] - The Shopee VIP membership program has gained traction, with membership increasing by over 75% in the last quarter [15][70] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining profitable growth across all business lines, with a focus on long-term profitability [4][5] - The competitive landscape remains stable, with no significant changes observed in market dynamics [51][53] - The company anticipates a GMV growth of more than 25% for the full year 2025, reflecting strong market momentum [40][41] Other Important Information - The company is focusing on enhancing its logistics capabilities to improve service quality and operational efficiency [8][12] - The partnership with YouTube and Meta aims to enrich the buyer community and enhance content-driven sales [16][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth guidance for 2025 and margin trends - Management indicated that the growth guidance of more than 25% is based on current market momentum and competitive landscape, expecting to maintain a 2%-3% EBITDA margin [40][41] Question: Investment areas affecting margins - The decrease in margins is attributed to ongoing investments in logistics and fulfillment capabilities, which are expected to yield long-term benefits [40][41] Question: New market entry strategy and market shares - The rationale for closing cross-border operations in some regions is to focus resources on key business priorities, with a selective approach to new market entries [45][46] Question: Competitive landscape in Southeast Asia - The competitive landscape is stable, with no significant changes in market dynamics, and the company is confident in its ability to defend market share [51][53] Question: Logistics fulfillment and cost outlook - More than half of orders are fulfilled by SPX, with continuous improvements in cost per order and delivery speed contributing to growth [58][59] Question: Outlook for Garena and Free Fire - Management remains optimistic about Garena's growth, with plans for new IP collaborations and game launches in the pipeline [62][63] Question: VIP membership unit economics - The VIP program is in early stages, with strong growth in membership and a focus on improving retention rates [69][72] Question: AI investment and applications - The company is focused on practical applications of AI to enhance user experience and operational efficiency, rather than large-scale CapEx investments [73][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue reached $6 billion, representing a 38% year-on-year growth, while adjusted EBITDA grew by 68% to $874 million [4][33] - Shopee's GMV increased by over 28% year-on-year, with gross orders rising by 28% to $3.6 billion [4][33] - Digital financial services revenue grew by 61% year-on-year to $990 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 37% to $258 million [20][34] - Digital entertainment bookings rose by 51% year-on-year to $841 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 48% to $466 million [27][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-commerce: Shopee achieved record highs in GMV, gross order volume, and revenue, with a significant increase in ad revenue by over 70% [5][34] - Digital Financial Services: The loan book expanded by 70% year-on-year to $7.9 billion, with a stable 90-day NPL ratio at 1.1% [21][36] - Digital Entertainment: Garena's performance was bolstered by successful campaigns, leading to a 51% increase in bookings [27][37] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Brazil, Shopee's GMV growth outpaced the market, with delivery speed improving significantly, allowing for expansion into higher-value product categories [19][20] - In Taiwan, Shopee's GMV showed double-digit growth year-on-year, with a strong logistics network enhancing delivery capabilities [10][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance logistics and fulfillment capabilities as core pillars of its strategy, focusing on improving service quality and price competitiveness [6][11] - Continued investment in AI to enhance consumer retail experiences and improve monetization through smarter search and personalized content [15][16] - The Shopee VIP membership program has gained traction, with a 75% increase in members, indicating strong user engagement [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining profitable growth across all business lines, with expectations for Shopee's full-year GMV growth to exceed 25% [20][32] - The competitive landscape remains stable, with the company gaining market share in Southeast Asia and Taiwan [53][54] - Future investments will focus on logistics and fulfillment to strengthen competitive advantages without significant capital expenditure [62][64] Other Important Information - The company is exploring opportunities in Argentina while winding down operations in Chile and Colombia to focus resources on key priorities [52] - The standalone ShopeePay app is gaining traction, with over 20% of monthly transacting users utilizing it [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth guidance for 2025 and margin trends - Management indicated that the growth guidance reflects current market momentum and competitive landscape, with expectations for a 2-3% EBITDA margin improvement over time [41][42] Question: New market entry strategy and market shares - The rationale for closing cross-border operations in some regions was to focus on key business priorities, with confidence in gaining market share in ASEAN and Taiwan [46][53] Question: Competitive landscape in Southeast Asia - Management noted a stable competitive landscape, with no significant changes in market dynamics impacting growth [56][60] Question: Logistics fulfillment and Garena's outlook - More than half of orders are fulfilled by SPX, with continuous improvements in delivery speed and cost contributing to growth [67][68] - Garena remains optimistic about Free Fire's growth, with plans for new IP collaborations and game launches [71][76] Question: VIP membership unit economics and AI investments - The VIP program is in early stages, with strong growth in user sign-ups and retention rates being closely monitored [80][81] - AI investments will focus on practical applications to enhance user experience and operational efficiency, avoiding large capital expenditures [89][90]

Overall Performance - Sea Limited experienced strong growth momentum in Q3 2025, with GAAP revenue reaching $6 billion[19] - The company's adjusted EBITDA increased to $874.3 million[16] - Sea Limited's gross cash position stood at $10.5 billion[16] E-commerce (Shopee) - E-commerce GAAP revenue reached $4.3 billion in Q3 2025[19] - Shopee's GMV is expected to grow by more than 25% for the full year 2025[24] - Ad revenue increased over 70% year-over-year, and the ad take-rate rose by more than 80 basis points year-over-year in Q3 2025[24] Digital Financial Services - Loans principal outstanding reached $7.9 billion, representing a 14.6% quarter-over-quarter increase[10] - Digital Financial Services GAAP revenue was $989.9 million in Q3 2025[19] - Adjusted EBITDA for Digital Financial Services reached $258.3 million[19] Digital Entertainment (Garena) - Digital Entertainment bookings reached $840.7 million, a 27.1% quarter-over-quarter increase[10] - Garena is on track to achieve more than 30% year-over-year growth in bookings for 2025[51] - Adjusted EBITDA for Digital Entertainment was $465.9 million[19]

Core Insights - Sea Limited reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, with total GAAP revenue reaching US$6.0 billion, a 38.3% increase year-on-year [7][11] - The company aims to sustain high and profitable growth across its three core businesses: e-commerce, digital financial services, and digital entertainment [2][3] E-commerce - Shopee achieved record-setting quarterly GMV, gross order volume, and revenue, with a projected full-year GMV growth of over 25% for 2025 [3] - E-commerce GAAP revenue increased by 36.6% to US$3.8 billion, driven by GMV growth [16] - Gross orders totaled 3.6 billion, up 28.4% year-on-year, with total GMV at US$32.2 billion, also reflecting a 28.4% increase [7] Digital Financial Services - Monee reported a GAAP revenue increase of 60.8% to US$989.9 million, primarily due to growth in the consumer and SME credit business [7][16] - The principal outstanding for consumer and SME loans reached US$7.9 billion, a 69.8% increase year-on-year [7] - Adjusted EBITDA for digital financial services was US$258.3 million, up 37.5% year-on-year [7] Digital Entertainment - Garena's bookings increased by 51% year-on-year, marking the best quarter since 2021, with a strong performance driven by campaigns for Free Fire [3][7] - Digital entertainment GAAP revenue rose by 31.2% to US$653.0 million, attributed to an increase in active users and deeper paying user penetration [16] - The segment is on track to achieve over 30% year-on-year growth in bookings for 2025 [3] Financial Performance - Total gross profit for the quarter was US$2.6 billion, up 39.7% year-on-year [7] - Total adjusted EBITDA reached US$874.3 million, a 67.7% increase from the previous year [7] - Net income for Q3 2025 was US$375.0 million, compared to US$153.3 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a 144.6% increase [25][7] User Metrics - Quarterly active users reached 670.8 million, a 6.7% increase year-on-year, while quarterly paying users grew by 31.2% to 65.9 million [10] - The average bookings per user increased to US$1.25 from US$0.89 in the previous year [10]

Core Insights - Sea Limited is a significant player in the digital economy, operating through three main segments: Shopee, SeaMoney, and Garena [1] - The company is preparing to release its third-quarter earnings on November 11, 2025, with analysts expecting an EPS of $1.03, a 90.7% increase from the previous year, and projected revenue of $5.97 billion, reflecting a 39.9% year-over-year growth [2][6] Shopee Segment - Shopee has achieved a 25% increase in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and maintains market leadership in Brazil, contributing significantly to the company's growth [2][6] SeaMoney Segment - SeaMoney's loan book has expanded by 90%, with stable credit quality, which is expected to drive a 60% year-over-year revenue increase for this segment [3][6] Garena Segment - Garena continues to contribute to revenue momentum with over 100 million daily users, although it faces margin pressure and risks related to user stability, particularly due to reliance on the game Free Fire [4] Historical Performance - Sea Limited has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 12.14%, and the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downwards by 1.4% over the past 30 days [5]