黄天佑 长江证券通信分析师: 好的，尊敬各位投资人，大家晚上好。我是那个长江通信分析师黄天佑。那么今天的话， 我们给大家开始做一个系列的汇报，就是针对我们光纤光缆还有海缆这边，就是最新的一 个行业这边的这个近期发展的一个更新。因为那么今天第一期的话，我重点是汇报一下这 个光纤光缆这一块，因为最近的话可能也看到了板块这边有相当不错的一个股价的表现那 这边的话我们也是，一方面就是把过去的这个光联光缆的一些周期，再给它做一个简单复 盘。那么帮大家更好地去判断这一轮周期的一个持续性吧。 然后第二个的话，就是可能就讲一下我们当前对光纤光缆的整体观点那么第一个的话，还 是去复盘一下周期，因为其实，在上一期我们也，就是在去年 12 月份的时候，我们也做 过一次汇报，也是在复盘这个过去，那么实际上实际上我们说两波。比较显著的这个光年 光缆周期的话，一个是发生在当时的这个 15 年到 18 年吧，15 年到 18 年就是我们有一个 4G 的周期，再加上这个中国移动发力这个固网建设，正好叠加这个我们国内的一个流量 爆发。国内一个流量爆发，其实那个阶段里面的话。 就是有，以这个中国市场为主，就看到了一个光纤光缆市场的一个井井喷式的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a sustained increase in fiber optic prices in the Chinese market since Q3 2025, reflecting strong demand and tight supply conditions. The global demand for fiber optic cables is robust, driven by overseas demand and AI-related applications, leading to a recommendation for continued investment in the fiber optic sector [1]. Group 1: Price Trends and Demand - Since Q3 2025, the price of domestic G652D fiber has consistently increased, reaching 31.5 yuan per core kilometer in January 2026, a 79% increase from November 2025, indicating a favorable industry demand and tight supply [1]. - In 2025, China's optical fiber exports increased by 47.1% in volume and 65.4% in value, while optical preform exports rose by 89.5% in volume and 81.7% in value, reflecting strong global demand for fiber optic cables [1]. Group 2: Future Demand Projections - The demand for fiber optics is expected to grow rapidly due to AI and other factors, with significant increases in global optical module demand anticipated in 2026, which will correspondingly boost fiber demand [2]. - By around 2027, the demand for fiber optics is projected to scale up significantly, with Corning estimating that this demand could be 2-3 times that of existing enterprise network business [2]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The North American market is experiencing a supply gap, with fiber demand growth outpacing supply growth, leading to potential shortages as AI continues to drive demand [3]. - The supply-demand balance in the U.S. market is projected to show deficits of 0.28 million core kilometers in 2023, 0.24 million in 2024, and 0.24 million in 2025, indicating a tightening market [3]. - Major suppliers in North America, such as Corning and Prysmian, are operating at high capacity utilization rates and are expanding slowly, which may create significant export opportunities for leading domestic fiber optic companies [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [1] Core Insights - Google Cloud announced a price increase for global data transfer services, with North American rates doubling from $0.04/GiB to $0.08/GiB, while European and Asian rates increased by 60% and 42% respectively [2][6] - Amazon raised the price of its machine learning EC2 capacity block instances, with the p5e.48xlarge instance price increasing from $34.61 to $39.80 per hour, reflecting a 15% increase [2][13] - The expansion of computing infrastructure is driving an increase in AIDC leasing prices, with the MRR Per Cab rising from $1,877 in Q1 2018 to $2,436 in Q3 2025, a 29.8% increase [19] - The demand for CPUs is increasing due to AI agents, leading to a rise in CPU prices, particularly for the Intel Core i7 Alder Lake model, which has seen significant price increases since January 2026 [24] - The AI sector is reshaping the demand structure for optical fibers, with a clear upward price trend for G652D fibers, which have seen price increases over two consecutive quarters [42][47] - The global market for optical modules is expected to grow at a CAGR of 22% from 2024 to 2029, driven by strong demand from AI applications and cloud service providers [54] Summary by Sections Data Transfer Services - Google Cloud's price increase for data transfer services will take effect on May 1, 2026, with North American rates doubling [3][6] Machine Learning Instances - Amazon's price adjustment for the p5e.48xlarge instance reflects strong demand and rising costs, marking a significant shift in the pricing trend for cloud services [13] AIDC Leasing Prices - Equinix's MRR Per Cab has shown a consistent upward trend, indicating a recovery in the AIDC leasing market [19] CPU Demand and Pricing - The rise in CPU demand is attributed to the increasing complexity of AI tasks, leading to higher prices for key CPU models [24] Optical Fiber Market - The optical fiber market is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly for G652D fibers, with prices showing a positive trend [42][47] Optical Module Market - The optical module market is projected to expand significantly, driven by AI and cloud service demands, indicating a robust growth trajectory [54]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of AI computing power, particularly in the optical module CPO and optical communication sectors, with significant market gains observed [1] - As of 10:15, the 5G Communication ETF (515050) surged by 3.69%, while the AI-focused ChiNext ETF (159381) rose by 3.28%, indicating robust investor interest in these sectors [1] - The price of domestic G652D optical fibers has been steadily increasing since Q3, driven by overseas AI demand, leading to an 87.78% year-on-year increase in China's optical rod exports from January to November 2025 [1] Group 2 - LightCounting's latest report predicts that the optical module market will exceed $23 billion by 2025, with demand for many products, including optical modules, currently outpacing supply by twofold or more [1] - CITIC Securities remains optimistic about the AI computing power sector, noting that the demand for computing power is strong and the competition is ongoing, with a focus on both North American and domestic supply chains [1] - The domestic supply chain is expected to benefit from increased production capacity and the release of H200, which may accelerate the deployment of AI computing infrastructure [1] Group 3 - The ChiNext AI ETF (159381) tracks the ChiNext AI Index and has a significant weight in optical module CPOs, with the top three holdings being Zhongji Xuchuang (26.62%), Xinyi Sheng (19.35%), and Tianfu Communication (5.05%) [2] - The 5G Communication ETF (515050) focuses on the 5G communication theme index, with major holdings in companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng [2] - The Cloud Computing 50 ETF (516630) tracks a cloud computing index with a high AI computing power content, covering various sectors including optical modules, data centers, and AI servers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic G652D fiber optic prices have been steadily increasing since Q3 2023, indicating strong industry demand and tight overall supply, with robust overseas demand and export performance [1] Group 1: Export Performance - China's optical fiber rod exports from January to November 2025 saw a year-on-year increase of 87.78% in volume and 77.36% in value; optical fiber exports increased by 48.74% in volume and 63.37% in value [1] - The growth rate has notably accelerated since October 2023, reflecting strong global demand for optical fibers and cables [1] Group 2: Market Demand Drivers - Strong growth in exports is attributed to robust global demand, particularly from the AI sector, with Corning's Enterprise Network business in North America experiencing year-on-year growth of 106%, 81%, and 58% from Q1 to Q3 2025 [1] - The demand for G657 fiber is also driven by applications such as battlefield drones, which consume significant amounts of this type of fiber [1] Group 3: Future Demand Projections - The demand for optical fibers is expected to continue growing due to the anticipated increase in global optical module demand, projected to rise significantly through 2026 [1] - There is an expectation that the demand for optical fibers will scale up by 2027, with Data Center Interconnect (DCI) also contributing to substantial demand [1] Group 4: Industry Outlook - Concerns about the supply-demand balance in the optical fiber and cable market persist, but it is believed that manufacturers will approach capacity expansion more rationally compared to the imbalances seen in 2019 [1] - The current demand recovery, coupled with rising prices, may lead to both profit and valuation increases for leading companies in the industry [1]