该机构预计由AI带来的光纤需求将持续高增，一是考虑到全球光模块需求量在2026年仍将大幅增长， 则对应光纤需求也将随之增长；二是预计2027年Scale up的光纤需求可能起量；三是DCI也将带来大量 的需求。市场对于光纤光缆的供需格局较为担忧，该机构认为，经历了2019年供需失衡，价格暴跌，此 次厂商扩产会相对理性，另外光棒等环节扩产周期较长。此轮需求回暖叠加价格上涨，行业内的龙头公 司可能盈利与估值双提升。 根据CRU数据显示，今年三季度以来，国内G652D光纤价格持续环比提升，反应出行业需求向好，整体 供应偏紧。海外需求旺盛，出口表现强劲。2025年1—11月，我国光棒出口量同比增长87.78%，金额同 比增长77.36%；光纤出口量同比增长48.74%，金额同比增长63.37%。尤其是10月以来，增速明显提 速。 中信建投证券认为，出口强劲增长反映了全球光纤光缆市场的旺盛需求，一方面海外AI需求强劲，尤 其是北美市场，2025年一季度至三季度康宁的Enterprise Network业务同比增长106%、81%、58%；另一 方面像战场用无人机等也消耗了大量的G657光纤。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on the 19th of this month, with limited impact on global liquidity due to previous rate hikes since March last year [1] - The most dangerous phase of liquidity shock has passed, as the futures market has already closed the most active "carry trade" positions, and the Federal Reserve's expansionary policy is stabilizing market liquidity expectations [1] - Concerns about the "AI bubble" in the US stock market and the overall vulnerability of the market may lead to a liquidity shock triggered by the yen's interest rate hike [1][2] Group 2 - The technology sector in the US stock market may experience adjustments that could prompt the Federal Reserve to resume quantitative easing, leading to a quick recovery in capital markets [2] - The outlook for major asset allocation remains positive for gold and RMB assets, driven by China's expanding export surplus and the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts, which will support the long-term appreciation of the RMB [2] Group 3 - The optical fiber and cable industry is showing signs of recovery, with prices entering an upward channel, as retail prices for scattered fibers have rebounded by approximately 15%-20% [3] - The demand for high-value products such as multimode and ultra-low loss fibers is surging due to the explosion of AI computing power, leading manufacturers to shift capacity towards high-end products [3][4] - The growth in overseas demand is driving a strong "volume and price increase" trend in exports, with export values for optical rods, fibers, and cables expected to grow by over 50% year-on-year by October 2025 [3] Group 4 - Domestic manufacturers are maintaining restraint in expanding core optical rod capacity due to previous years of capacity clearing and management, which will limit short-term supply amid rapidly increasing demand [4] - The mismatch between supply and demand in the context of sustained demand growth will support continued price increases in the optical fiber industry [4]