Group 1 - The focus is on the performance of the Xinchuang ETF fund (562030), which has seen a decline of 2.19% in its market price, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Huawei Cloud reported a nearly 250% year-on-year growth in overall computing power, with the number of customers using Ascend AI cloud services increasing from 321 last year to 1714 this year [3] - The Xinchuang industry is transitioning from being policy-driven to a dual-driven model of policy and market, with significant growth expected in the market size, projected to exceed 2.6 trillion yuan by 2026 [4] Group 2 - The Xinchuang ETF fund passively tracks the CSI Xinchuang Index, which covers key segments of the Xinchuang industry chain, including hardware, software, and information security [6] - There are four key investment rationales for the Xinchuang industry: geopolitical tensions increasing the need for self-sufficiency, government procurement likely to recover, breakthroughs in technology by domestic manufacturers, and the approach of critical procurement timelines [7]

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities highlights the sustained demand for AI computing power, with GPU cloud (computing power leasing) emerging as a key solution for the mismatch between high-end computing supply and demand in the short term, and a flexible, low-cost solution with increasing penetration in the long term [1] Industry Overview - The global computing power market continues to thrive, driven by the accelerated shipment of NVIDIA's GB series high-density computing cabinets, further enhancing the high-end computing landscape [1] - IDC forecasts that the global AI server market will reach $222.7 billion by 2028, with the share of generative AI servers increasing from 29.6% in 2025 to 37.7% in 2028 [1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - On the demand side, the need for training remains high due to rapid model iterations, while inference demand is gradually increasing as applications penetrate further [1] - On the supply side, high-performance computing chips represented by NVIDIA's B/Rubin and AMD MI series are continuously iterating, with the GB300 expected to accelerate delivery in the second half of 2025 [1] Capital Expenditure Trends - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to increase their capital expenditures significantly, with Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta projected to collectively reach $361 billion in Capex by 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 58% [1] - Domestic companies like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are anticipated to exceed 360 billion yuan in Capex, indicating a sustained high demand for AI development [1] GPU Cloud Market Development - The GPU cloud (computing power leasing) model is rapidly evolving to address the global shortage of high-end AI chips, with major AI companies like Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI announcing or completing the construction of large-scale clusters [2] - The GPU cloud market is expected to grow to $12.8 billion by 2033, marking a significant shift in the cloud computing landscape towards AI intelligent computing [2] Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA is supporting the development of GPU cloud providers (CoreWeave, NBIS, Omniva) through equity or partnership, solidifying its global leadership in high-end chips [3] - Domestic GPU cloud companies are positioned for growth, with rental returns estimated at 15%, reflecting a favorable comparison to overseas GPU cloud business models [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The global AI computing market is experiencing sustained growth, with the AI server market expected to reach $222.7 billion by 2028, driven by the increasing demand for generative AI servers [3][4] - The GPU cloud (computing rental) market is rapidly developing as a solution to the global shortage of high-end AI chips, with a projected market size of $12.8 billion by 2033 [4][73] - Domestic AI chip companies are expected to benefit from the high demand for computing power, with a projected net profit margin of around 15% for rental companies [5] Summary by Sections 1. Sustained High Demand for Computing Power - The global AI server market is projected to grow from $125.1 billion in 2024 to $158.7 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 31% from 2025 to 2028 [14][68] - In China, the AI computing market is expected to reach $25.9 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 31% from 2025 to 2028 [14][68] 2. Scarcity of High-End Computing Resources - The AI chip market is dominated by NVIDIA, which holds over 80% of the market share, while the ASIC market is rapidly growing [51][68] - The demand for AI chips is expected to continue to rise, with major cloud service providers contributing over 50% of NVIDIA's data center revenue [68] 3. Rapid Growth of GPU Cloud Market - Major AI companies are building large-scale GPU clusters, with Meta and Microsoft leading the way in constructing clusters with tens of thousands of GPUs [67] - The GPU cloud market is expected to expand significantly, driven by the need for flexible and cost-effective computing solutions [4][73] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic GPU cloud-related companies, particularly recommending companies like Runjian Co., Ltd. [5]