闻乐 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 游戏&装机党注意了！ 有消息称英伟达2026上半年要对 GeForce RTX 50 系列下狠手，产量将一刀砍掉30%-40%。 16GB显存的5060 Ti、5070Ti可能最先没……这意味着消费者要么被迫选"阉割版"的8GB显卡，要么就得加钱买更贵的。 那为啥突然减产呢？ 优先保高利润机型 一方面是 "内存荒" 闹的。 不只是大家比较关注的GDDR7，现在连其他类型内存都供应紧张，就算英伟达想满负荷生产，但"巧妇难为无米之炊"，没有足够的内存也白 搭。 另一方面更现实，怕 卖不动 。 英伟达可能预判到2026年NAND和DRAM的内存成本会涨，这样必然会推高整机的价格，到时候消费者就会犹豫着不买，与其造出来堆库 存，不如提前砍掉产能，把控风险。 消息一出，网友炸锅了："我们玩家算什么！""AMD、Intel你们趁机崛起吧"。 所以只能牺牲这两款中端卡的产能，优先保高利润机型了。 而且，还有个坏消息，咱普通玩家得做好GPU缺货涨价的准备…… 现在的3A游戏对显存要求越来越高，8GB显存玩起来可能会卡顿、掉帧、降画质，可一旦市面上16GB显卡变少了，那到时 ...

闻乐 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 游戏&装机党注意了！ 有消息称英伟达2026上半年要对 GeForce RTX 50 系列下狠手，产量将一刀砍掉30%-40%。 16GB显存的5060 Ti、5070Ti可能最先没……这意味着消费者要么被迫选"阉割版"的8GB显卡，要么就得加钱买更贵的。 消息一出，网友炸锅了："我们玩家算什么！""AMD、Intel你们趁机崛起吧"。 那为啥突然减产呢？ 有朋友肯定知道，这两款卡的显存容量和更贵的RTX 5080是一样的，但售价更亲民，本来是中端玩家的"香饽饽"。 但从商业角度看，英伟达肯定想把有限的内存资源留给利润更高的RTX PRO系列和高端消费卡，毕竟同样的内存，装在贵卡上能赚更多—— 所以只能牺牲这两款中端卡的产能，优先保高利润机型了。 而且，还有个坏消息，咱普通玩家得做好GPU缺货涨价的准备…… 优先保高利润机型 一方面是 "内存荒" 闹的。 不只是大家比较关注的GDDR7，现在连其他类型内存都供应紧张，就算英伟达想满负荷生产，但"巧妇难为无米之炊"，没有足够的内存也白 搭。 另一方面更现实，怕 卖不动 。 英伟达可能预判到2026年NAND和 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of $160, representing a potential upside of 33.17% from the current price of $120.15 [2][31]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience significant growth driven by the demand for its Blackwell products, particularly in the AI and data center sectors. The revenue for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be $393 billion, a year-over-year increase of 77.9%, surpassing previous guidance and market expectations [3][5][10]. - The gross margin for the latest quarter was reported at 73.0%, slightly below expectations due to higher short-term costs associated with ramping up Blackwell production. However, margins are expected to improve as production stabilizes [5][10]. - The company anticipates a revenue guidance midpoint of $430 billion for the next quarter, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 65.1% [10][15]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending January 26, 2025, total revenue is forecasted to reach $393 billion, with a net profit of $221 billion, resulting in a GAAP diluted EPS of $0.89, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [3][6]. - The company generated free cash flow of $155 billion in the latest quarter, up from $115 billion in the same period last year, and returned $81 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends [6][10]. - The data center business saw revenue of $355.8 billion, a 93.3% increase year-over-year, driven by demand for large models and AI applications [15][19]. Product and Market Developments - The Blackwell platform is highlighted as the fastest ramping product in the company's history, with Q4 revenue reaching $110 billion, exceeding expectations. The transition from Hopper to Blackwell is noted to be more challenging, but improvements in gross margins are anticipated as production scales [10][19]. - The company launched Project DIGITS, a personal AI computer capable of running large models, showcasing its commitment to innovation in AI technology [26][20]. - The automotive business reported a revenue increase of 102.8% year-over-year, driven by rising demand for smart driving chips, with a projected market space of $5 billion for autonomous driving chips in 2025 [27][26]. Future Outlook - The company expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% for revenue and EPS over the next three years, supported by strong capital expenditure growth from major clients like Microsoft and Google [32][31]. - The report emphasizes the need for continuous product development and iteration to maintain competitive advantages in the rapidly evolving AI and semiconductor markets [32][19].

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA's FY25 Q4 revenue reached $39.331 billion, a year-on-year increase of 78% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%, exceeding guidance expectations [1][7]. Revenue Breakdown - **Data Center**: Revenue for the quarter was $35.58 billion, up 93% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter, driven by the Blackwell architecture GPUs, which generated $11 billion in revenue [2][8]. - **Gaming and AI PC**: Revenue was $2.5 billion, down 11% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter due to supply constraints [2][18]. - **Professional Visualization**: Revenue reached $511 million, a 10% year-on-year increase and a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase, primarily driven by the automotive and healthcare sectors [2][20]. - **Automotive**: Revenue hit a record $570 million, up 103% year-on-year and 27% quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from the ramp-up of autonomous vehicle production [2][21]. Future Guidance - For FY26 Q1, the revenue guidance is set at $43 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.3% [3][25]. - The gross margin is expected to be around 71%, with a potential recovery to 75% by the end of the fiscal year as production ramps up and costs are optimized [3][22]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese data center market remains competitive, with sales still below pre-export control levels, and the company will continue to comply with regulations while serving customers [4][16]. - The demand for inference AI is growing significantly, with long inference tasks requiring up to 100 times more computational power compared to single inference tasks [4][9]. Product Developments - The next-generation Blackwell Ultra is planned for release in the second half of the year, maintaining the same system architecture as the current Blackwell [4][34]. - The company is focusing on enhancing the performance of its GPUs, with the new GeForce RTX 50 series expected to redefine visual computing experiences [2][19]. Financial Returns - In Q4, the company returned $8.1 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks and cash dividends [24]. Long-term Outlook - The enterprise market is expected to surpass the CSP market in the long run, driven by the increasing integration of AI across various industries [4][41]. - The company anticipates that AI will become a core component of software and services, significantly impacting global GDP [4][39].

免责声明 本文转载于互联网公开信息。天风证券不对本信息所载资料的准确性和完整性做任何形式的 保证，在任何情况下，本信息均不构成对任何人的投资建议。相关投资观点请参考已发布的 研究报告。 业绩会纪要 感谢 Stuart。第四季度又是创纪录的一个季度。 营收为 393 亿美元，环比增长 12%，同比增长 78%。高于我们 375 亿美元的预期。2025 财 年营收为 1305 亿美元，比上一年增长 114%。 首先来看数据中心。2025 财年数据中心营收为 1152 亿美元，比上一年翻了一番还多。第四 季度，数据中心营收为 356 亿美元，创历史新高，环比增长 16%，同比增长 93%。 随着 Blackwell 开始量产，H200 继续推动增长。第四季度，Blackwell 的销售额超出了我们的 预期。我们交付了 110 亿美元的 Blackwell 收入，以满足强劲的需求，这是我们公司历史上 最快的产品量产。其速度和规模都是前所未有的。Blackwell 的生产正在全面展开，涵盖多种 配置，我们正在迅速增加供应，扩大客户的采用。第四季度，我们的数据中心计算收入环比 增长 18%，同比增长超过 2 倍。客户正在 ...