A股三大指数午后全线翻红，存储芯片板块午后持续回暖。截至14:15，人工智能AIETF（515070）跌幅 收窄至0.11%，其持仓股三七互娱涨停，三六零、汇顶科技等股涨幅居前，北京君正强势反弹涨 3.32%。 中金公司分析指出，AI技术的持续进步正推动半导体行业进入以"出海"与"升级"为特征的新周期。其认 为，尽管成熟产品的国产替代红利期已过，但AI相关需求的高增长以及贸易摩擦的大环境，为国产算 力芯片企业带来了商业化机遇。在芯片设计端，龙头公司有望通过产品的高端化与特色化创造业绩新 高；在制造端，地缘供应链变化则带动了国内代工、封测环节需求的持续增长。展望未来，由AI应用 落地驱动的云端算力需求，以及AI手机、AR/VR等终端硬件升级带来的端侧算力需求，将共同构成行 业发展的核心动力。 人工智能AIETF（515070）跟踪CS人工智能主题指数（930713），成分股选取为人工智能提供技术、 基础资源以及应用端个股，聚集人工智能产业链上中游，俗称"机器人"大脑"缔造者"，万物互联"地 基"。前十大权重股包括中际旭创、新易盛、寒武纪-U、中科曙光、科大讯飞、豪威集团、海康威视、 澜起科技、金山办公、紫光股份 ...

10月15日，全球资产管理巨头贝莱德（BlackRock）与人工智能芯片龙头英伟达（NVIDIA）今日联合宣 布，已就收购全球最大数据中心运营商之一Aligned Data Centers达成协议，交易总价值约400亿美元 （约合人民币2848亿元）。 此次收购由贝莱德旗下全球基础设施合作伙伴公司（GIP）主导，英伟达作为战略合作伙伴参与，阿联 酋主权财富基金穆巴达拉（Mubadala）旗下的AI投资公司MGX亦加入财团，共同完成这一年内全球最 大规模的并购案之一。 此次收购瞄准了人工智能（AI）技术爆发式增长背后的核心基础设施需求。随着OpenAI、Meta等科技 巨头加速建设AI专用数据中心，全球对高功率密度、可快速部署的数据中心需求激增。Aligned Data Centers作为全球领先的第三方数据中心运营商，目前管理着美国及南美地区的50个园区和78个数据中 心，涵盖在建及未来开发项目，其客户包括微软、亚马逊等云服务巨头。 今年1月，Aligned刚完成一轮超120亿美元的股权与债务融资，投资方包括麦格理资产管理（Macquarie Asset Management）等机构。此次被收购前，其总可售电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of stock market leaders like Cambrian reflects the extreme manifestation of market trends, particularly in the AI sector, which has shown significant growth and profitability in recent reports [2][3]. Group 1: AI Industry Performance - Cambrian's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4347.82%, with a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, marking a 295.82% growth [2]. - Other companies in the AI supply chain, such as New Yisheng and Shenghong Technology, also reported impressive growth, with revenue increasing by 282.64% and net profit by 366.89% respectively [2]. - The recovery of the tech market has provided a significant opportunity for public equity funds, with the Wind data showing a 31.45% increase in the Wande mixed equity fund index year-to-date, outperforming the 14.41% increase in the CSI 300 index [2]. Group 2: Global Supply Chain Insights - The deep globalization of the tech industry complicates the relocation of production to the U.S., as highlighted by Nvidia's plan to build a $500 billion AI infrastructure in the U.S. over four years [5][6]. - The production of advanced semiconductors relies on a global supply chain, with critical components sourced from various countries, making complete localization challenging [6][9]. - A report from the Belfer Center emphasizes that no country can fully control the advanced semiconductor supply chain, underscoring the need for a global perspective in tech investments [9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The tech investment landscape is characterized by a focus on high-growth sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and AI, necessitating a deep understanding of global industry dynamics [3][10]. - Fund managers are encouraged to integrate a mid-level framework for tracking tech industry changes, which aids in identifying investment opportunities [10][12]. - The investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of long-term factors over short-term market noise, with a focus on business model sustainability and industry leadership [15][17]. Group 4: Case Studies and Examples - Fund managers like Ouyang Liangqi have successfully identified undervalued internet companies in the AI space, leading to significant returns [15][19]. - The investment team at Yifangda has built a robust research framework that allows for continuous tracking of over 500 Taiwanese companies, enhancing their ability to gauge industry trends [24]. - The team’s approach to identifying companies that can navigate through the technology lifecycle stages is crucial for capturing excess returns in the evolving market [23][24].

Core Insights - The global AI capital expenditure is expected to reach $3-4 trillion by 2030, driven by significant growth in AI infrastructure investments [5][12][45] - NVIDIA's sovereign AI revenue is projected to reach $20 billion this year, more than doubling from the previous year, with substantial opportunities in the Chinese market [9][19] - The new Blackwell architecture is setting a new standard for AI inference performance, with a 10x return on investment per token and a 50x improvement in efficiency compared to previous architectures [7][17] Group 1 - NVIDIA's Q2 revenue showed double-digit growth, with Blackwell chip revenue increasing by 17% quarter-over-quarter, indicating strong demand [3][12] - The data center revenue continues to lag, partly due to a decrease in H20 chip sales, with no sales to China in the quarter [3][15] - The company expects significant growth opportunities in the coming years, particularly in AI infrastructure [3][12][66] Group 2 - The Chinese market presents a $50 billion opportunity this year, with an expected annual growth rate of 50% [4][48] - NVIDIA is in discussions with the U.S. government regarding the importance of meeting the Chinese market's needs and aims to sell Blackwell architecture GPUs there [4][48] Group 3 - The anticipated $3-4 trillion in AI capital expenditure is considered reasonable, given the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure projects globally [5][12] - Major cloud service providers have doubled their capital expenditures to $600 billion over two years, indicating a robust market for AI infrastructure [5][12][43] Group 4 - Factors driving continued investment growth include the need for increased training and inference computing, the global development of sovereign AI, and the adoption of enterprise AI [6][16] - Blackwell's NVLink and CUDA architecture redefine inference economics, enabling unprecedented scalability and monetization of computing resources [7][17] Group 5 - The gross margin is expected to reach the mid-70% range by year-end, reflecting strong profitability potential [8][28] - The company is accelerating investments to capitalize on future growth opportunities, with a focus on enhancing product performance and customer profitability [8][39] Group 6 - The company anticipates total revenue of $54 billion for Q3, excluding any assumptions for H20 shipments to China [27][66] - The expected GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins for Q3 are projected to be 73.3% and 73.5%, respectively [27][28]

Core Insights - Nvidia's Q2 revenue shows double-digit growth, with Blackwell chip revenue increasing by 17% quarter-over-quarter, indicating strong demand according to CEO Jensen Huang [1][8] - The data center segment continues to underperform, partly due to a decrease in H20 chip revenue, with no sales of H20 in China during the quarter [1][11] - Nvidia anticipates significant growth opportunities in the coming years, particularly in AI infrastructure spending, projected to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by the end of the decade [3][35] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the quarter reached $46.7 billion, exceeding expectations, with data center revenue growing by 56% year-over-year despite a $4 billion drop in H20 revenue [8][12] - The company expects a gross margin of approximately 70% by year-end, with non-GAAP gross margin projected at 73.5% for Q3 [5][22] - Nvidia plans to return $10 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends, with a recent authorization for $60 billion in stock repurchases [21][22] Market Opportunities - Nvidia sees a potential $50 billion market opportunity in China this year, with expectations for annual growth of 50% [2][37] - The rise of sovereign AI is expected to generate $20 billion in revenue for Nvidia this year, more than doubling from the previous year [6][15] - The AI infrastructure market is projected to grow significantly, driven by the need for increased training and inference computing, with major cloud service providers expected to invest $600 billion over the next two years [3][12] Product Developments - The Blackwell platform is setting new standards for AI inference performance, with NVLink and CUDA architectures enhancing efficiency and scalability [4][12] - Nvidia's new NVFP4 precision technology on the GB300 platform offers a 50-fold improvement in token efficiency compared to previous generations [4][12] - The company is ramping up production of the GB300 platform, with expectations for seamless transitions for major cloud service providers [9][10] Geopolitical Considerations - Nvidia is navigating geopolitical challenges regarding the sale of H20 chips to China, with potential revenue of $2 billion to $5 billion if issues are resolved [11][28] - The company emphasizes the importance of U.S. technology companies meeting the demands of the Chinese market, particularly in AI [2][38] Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's performance in the AI market is bolstered by its extensive developer ecosystem and software innovations, which have significantly improved Blackwell's performance since its launch [13][32] - The company faces competition from ASIC projects but maintains that its GPU offerings provide superior flexibility and performance for AI applications [29][31]

Group 1: Nvidia's Positive Outlook - Nvidia is expected to exceed earnings expectations due to a surge in demand for AI computing capabilities supported by its new Blackwell architecture [1][4][6] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Mizuho have raised their revenue and earnings forecasts for Nvidia, with Cantor Fitzgerald increasing its target price from $200 to $240, the highest on Wall Street [4][6] - Mizuho and Morgan Stanley also adjusted their target prices to $205 and $206 respectively, reflecting optimism about Nvidia's long-term revenue growth potential [8][9] Group 2: Financial Projections - FactSet estimates Nvidia's Q2 revenue at $45.8 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.00, with Cantor Fitzgerald projecting even higher figures of $48 billion in revenue and $1.06 EPS [6][8] - Mizuho's analyst noted a significant increase in capital expenditures from large tech companies, rising from 38% to 54% year-over-year, indicating strong market demand for GPUs [7] Group 3: Palantir's Negative Sentiment - In contrast to Nvidia, Palantir has faced criticism from short-sellers, with Citron Research's Andrew Left arguing that the stock is overvalued compared to true AI leaders like OpenAI [2][12] - Palantir's stock has risen over 130% this year, but its price-to-earnings ratio has reached an astonishing 588, compared to Nvidia's 58 [13][15] - Following Left's comments, Palantir's stock price dropped from a record high of $186.97 to $174.03, reflecting market concerns about its valuation [15]

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA announced the integration of its new Blackwell architecture GPU into the GeForce Now cloud gaming service, enhancing gaming capabilities with RTX 5080-level graphics processing power and supporting NVIDIA DLSS 4 technology for up to 5K resolution gaming [1] Group 1: Technology Upgrade - The Blackwell architecture will provide users with improved visual effects, stable frame rates, and minimal input latency, allowing various devices to perform like high-end gaming equipment [1] - The GeForce Now game library has surpassed 4,500 titles, including multiple AAA games, indicating a significant expansion in gaming options for users [1] Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement, NVIDIA's stock price increased by nearly 1% at the close of trading on Monday, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding the new technology [1]

关税的变数持续搅动金融市场。 "关税风暴"再度来袭，美国总统特朗普近日威胁自6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。下周全球市场将评估，6 月1日会不会是又一个4月2日（所谓"对等关税"宣布时间）。受此影响，欧洲多国市场周五集体大跌，欧元区 股指大跌1.8%。下周市场将高度关注相关事态的进展。有分析称，如果到6月1日50%的关税生效并持续下去， 这对欧盟来说将是毁灭性的打击。 在关税前景的不确定性加剧的背景下，美联储的降息前景也备受市场关注。下周一（5月26日），美联储主席 鲍威尔将发表致辞，或将释放最新的货币政策信号。美联储将于下周四公布5月货币政策会议纪要，将会成为 投资者观察美联储对关税政策担忧的窗口。 上市公司财报方面，下周的重头戏是英伟达将于5月28日美股盘后公布的业绩报告。投资者将密切关注英伟达 对全球贸易局势的判断及其前瞻性指引，以进一步了解全球人工智能的增长前景。 关税利空来袭 下周四（5月29日），美联储将公布5月货币政策会议纪要。 美东时间23日，特朗普在椭圆形办公室坚称，他并不寻求与布鲁塞尔达成快速协议，并发誓50%的关税将按计 划于6月1日生效。 有分析警告称，如果美国与欧盟贸易谈判拖到6月 ...

点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 事件： 英伟达发布FY25Q4季报，本季营收393.31亿美元，同比+78%/环比+12%，毛利率73.5%，同比-3.2pcts/ 环比-1.5pcts。综合财报及交流会议信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 1、本季营收超出指引预期，毛利率同环比微降主要系Blackwell处量产初期。 FY25Q4营收为393.31亿美元，同比+78%/环比+12%，超指引预期（375亿美元）。毛利率73.5%，同 比-3.2pcts/环比-1.5pcts，环比下降主要系Blackwell架构GPU量产初期成本高企，高度定制化设计推升生 产复杂度，产能扩张优先策略导致短期成本承压，量产规模效应释放及供应链协同优化后，毛利率有望 回升至75%左右。EPS为0.89亿美元，同比+71%/环比+10%。FY25营收为1305亿美元，同比+114%，毛 利率为75.5%，同比+1.7pcts，EPS为2.99亿美元，同比+130%。 2、 Blackwell架构GPU驱动数据中心增长，供应限制影响游戏部门收入。 1）数据中心： 本季营收为356亿美元，同比+93%/环比+16%，Blackwell架 ...