机构：长江证券 研究员：蔡方羿/米雁翔 近日，波兰Glo 官网发布Glo Hilo（一体式）和Glo Hilo Plus（分体式）加热不燃烧器具（分别有7 种颜 色选择），以及13 种口味烟支（8 种茶基调味+5 种烟草味）。分体式/一体式器具定价分别为289/149 波兰兹罗提，约合人民币约578/298 元；烟支定价19.99 波兰兹罗提/包，约合人民币约40 元/包。 事件评论 雾化电子烟：美国加强非法市场监管，合规产品迎来增长机遇，公司雾化业务修复或好于预期。1）美 国执法层面：9 月10 日，HHS 宣布FDA 和CBP 查获470 万件未经授权的电子烟产品，估计零售价值达 8650 万美元，是美国迄今规模最大的电子烟查获行动；2）从我国电子烟对美出口表现看：2025 年5-8 月，我国电子烟对美出口金额合计同比下降约23%，估计主要受监管政策收紧和关税影响。3）欧洲市 场：在一次性禁令推行背景下，公司通过快速推出创新合规新品满足市场需求，预计业务增长&产品结 构改善有望延续。 基本面趋势好、底部坚定看好全球新烟趋势下公司的成长潜力。1）雾化烟：主业修复趋势明确，有望 受益行业监管转向和大客户市占率 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - The introduction of the new heated non-combustible (HNB) products, Glo Hilo and Glo Hilo Plus, by British American Tobacco (BAT) in Japan is expected to drive growth in the HNB market, which is projected to reach a retail value of $389 billion by 2024 [4][11] - The Hilo product has received positive feedback during its trial phase, indicating a potential for rapid sales growth as it enters the broader Japanese market [10] - The global tobacco industry is nearing a trillion-dollar valuation, with new tobacco products expected to capture a larger market share as companies pivot towards harm reduction strategies [11] Industry Trends - The HNB market is anticipated to grow significantly, with BAT and other major tobacco companies increasing their focus on HNB products to facilitate a transition to smoke-free alternatives [11] - The market share for HNB products is currently dominated by Philip Morris International (71%), followed by British American Tobacco (16%) and Japan Tobacco (6%) [11] - The report suggests monitoring companies linked to BAT's HNB products, such as Smoore International, and other key players in the new tobacco product space [11] Market Performance - The report notes that the retail index increased by 4.56% during the week of June 23 to June 27, 2025, while the overall market indices also showed positive performance [12][14] - Year-to-date performance for the retail index stands at a 9.49% increase, indicating a favorable market environment for the retail sector [12][16] Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for various companies within the industry, highlighting their market capitalization, earnings projections, and investment ratings [18] - Notable companies such as Proya (P/E of 21), Betaini (P/E of 37), and Marubi (P/E of 48) are recommended for investment, indicating strong growth potential [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is expected to see a recovery in its core business of atomization, with promising growth in the HNB (Heated Not Burned) segment. The revenue growth trend is anticipated to continue into 2025, supported by increased demand for compliant products due to regulatory changes in the US and Europe [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a pre-tax profit of 255 million RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 36.3%, and a post-tax profit of 192 million RMB, down 43.4% year-over-year. This decline is attributed to increased business investments and a higher tax rate [1] - For 2025, the company expects revenues to reach 12.96 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 9.82% compared to 2024 [6] Business Segments - In the To B (business-to-business) segment, the company anticipates revenue recovery driven by stricter enforcement of regulations on non-compliant electronic vapor products in the US and increased demand for compliant products in Europe. Revenue growth in the US and Europe is projected at 5.2% and 14.4% respectively for the second half of 2024 [2] - The To C (business-to-consumer) segment is expected to see continued strong performance from the company's proprietary brand, VAPORESSO, with projected revenue of 2.48 billion RMB in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 34.0% [2] HNB Business - The company has made significant progress with its HNB business, particularly with the launch of new products by a major client, British American Tobacco (BAT). The Glo Hilo series is expected to be introduced to additional markets in 2025-2026, indicating substantial growth potential for the company [3] - The global HNB market was valued at 34.463 billion USD in 2023, with PMI holding a market share of 71% and BAT at 15.3%, highlighting the competitive landscape and growth opportunities for the company [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 1.323 billion RMB, 2.140 billion RMB, and 2.762 billion RMB respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 0.21 RMB for 2025, 0.35 RMB for 2026, and 0.45 RMB for 2027 [4][6] - The target price is set at 16.25 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 43 times the expected EPS of 0.36 RMB for 2026 [4]