on 28-Oct-2025 27 October 2025 Global Memory Korea Memory Export Tracker: Upside to Samsung's 3Q25 HBM, & Downside to SK hynix's Mark Li +852 2123 2645 mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA +852 2123 2623 edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA +852 2123 2669 yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com We find Korea export data is a good leading indicator of HBM revenue from Korean suppliers. With that & the availability of the September data, we find an upside risk to Samsung's 3Q25 HBM revenue but a downside risk to SK ...

23 October 2025 | 5:19PM HKT Equity Research China Semis: HBM expert call on China development; Opportunities, Challenges, and Pricing trend The system level validation could be one of difficulties for China to develop advanced HBM (high bandwidth memory) as it takes time to test and improve the yield, quality and reliability of HBM products. The expert notes that even for global leading HBM players, it typically takes several months to validate the HBM with downstream GPU customers. The expert believes the ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The AI industry is experiencing unprecedented acceleration, with a focus on compute architectures, interconnect technologies, and memory bottlenecks, primarily driven by key companies like NVIDIA, TSMC, and OpenAI [4][16][39] - The concept of the "AI perpetual motion cycle" is introduced, where AI chips drive compute demand, which in turn stimulates infrastructure investment, further expanding AI chip applications [4][16] Key Companies and Technologies - **NVIDIA**: Significant investments have popularized the AI perpetual motion cycle, with a shift in strategy from Scale Up and Scale Out to Scale Across, promoting Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) [4][10] - **TSMC**: Central to the entire AI infrastructure, TSMC's advanced process and packaging capabilities support the entire stack from design to system integration [6][8][17] - **OpenAI**: Transitioning from reliance on NVIDIA to developing custom AI ASICs in collaboration with Broadcom, indicating a shift in power dynamics within the supply chain [60][62] Memory and Bandwidth Challenges - The widening "memory wall" is a critical focus, as GPU performance is advancing faster than High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), leading to urgent needs for new memory architectures [12][18][121] - Marvell Technology is proposing solutions for memory architectures and optical interconnects to address these bottlenecks [12] - HBM is evolving beyond just memory technology to a deeply integrated system involving logic, memory, and packaging [13][58] Technological Advancements - The industry is moving towards a focus on "System Bandwidth Engineering," where electrical design at the packaging level is crucial for sustaining future performance scaling [91] - CXL (Compute Express Link) is enabling resource pooling and near-memory compute, which is essential for addressing memory allocation challenges [25][126] - Companies like Ayar Labs and Lightmatter are innovating in silicon photonics to achieve high bandwidth and low latency, reshaping memory systems [26] Strategic Implications - The year 2026 is identified as a critical inflection point for the AI industry, with expected breakthroughs in performance and systemic transformations across technology stacks and capital markets [18][39][55] - The shift from NVIDIA-centric control to a more distributed approach among cloud service providers (CSPs) is reshaping the HBM supply chain, with companies developing their own ASICs [23][57] - Geopolitical implications arise as U.S. companies strengthen ties with Korean memory suppliers, reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains [65] Future Outlook - By 2026, significant changes in pricing for electricity, water resources, and advanced packaging capacity are anticipated, with winners being those who can leverage bandwidth engineering for productivity [28][50] - The AI chip market is transitioning from a GPU-driven economy to a multi-chip, multi-architecture landscape, with emerging pricing power centers in Samsung and SK hynix [69][70] - The integration of HBM with advanced packaging technologies will be crucial for future AI architectures, with TSMC playing a pivotal role in this evolution [92][96] Conclusion - The AI industry is on the brink of a major transformation, driven by technological advancements, strategic shifts in supply chains, and the urgent need to address memory and bandwidth challenges. The developments leading up to 2026 will redefine the competitive landscape and the value chain within the AI ecosystem [39][70][71]

Market Overview - The Dow is down over 150 points, approximately a third of 1%, while the NASDAQ has shown slight gains [2][3] - The Russell 2000 index is experiencing a pullback of about half a percent after recently reaching record levels [3] - Bond market yields have decreased slightly, with a notable downward trend leading up to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [4][5] H1B Visa Fee Impact - President Trump has announced a one-time $100,000 fee on H1B visas, which could significantly impact American tech companies and trade relations with India and China [9][12] - The H1B visa program is crucial for the tech industry, with approximately 83,000 workers receiving these visas annually, predominantly from India [12][13] - Initial confusion regarding the fee structure has been clarified, indicating it is a one-time charge rather than an annual fee [10][11] Semiconductor Sector Insights - Micron is set to report earnings, with expectations high due to its recent performance and its role in the AI market through high bandwidth memory chips [42][51] - The semiconductor sector is mixed, with some companies like Nvidia and Broadcom trading lower, while others like TSMC and ASML are performing better [7] - The overall semiconductor market is experiencing a shift, with AI demand potentially softening traditional cyclical trends [46][48] Oracle Leadership Changes - Oracle has announced the departure of CEO Saffer Katz, who will be replaced by co-CEOs Clay McGu and Mike Siccilia, while Katz transitions to executive vice chair [34][36] - The leadership change comes amid Oracle's involvement in the TikTok deal, which is expected to enhance its role in data security and cloud services [38][61] Economic and Trade Relations - The U.S.-India trade situation remains tense, with ongoing tariff discussions and the recent H1B visa fee announcement adding to the strain [14][15] - The administration's approach to tariffs and trade negotiations is causing a disconnect between market performance and job losses in sectors like manufacturing and agriculture [20][21][22] - The political implications of tariffs are significant, with a majority of Americans expressing concerns over rising costs associated with these trade policies [25][27]

ab 1 July 2025 Global Research Memory Semis Monthly July '25 Edition: HBM supply / demand remains healthy HBM supply / demand to remain in check Investors often ask us whether the disconnect between our HBM supply forecasts (i.e., shipments from HBM vendors) and demand estimates (based upon end-consumption) should be cause for concern. For now, we do not believe so. HBM typically ships into consignment inventories at TSMC, ahead of the CoWoS process taking place. This then can last up to 2 months. The packa ...