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甲醇聚烯烃早报-20260312
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 02:07
Group 1: Methanol - Methanol price data from March 5 - 11, 2026, including动力煤期货, spot prices in different regions, CFR prices, import profit,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润 [2] - Day - to - day changes:动力煤期货 remained unchanged, some regional prices had fluctuations, and西北折盘面 decreased by 110,西北折盘面 decreased by 25,主力基差 decreased by 15 [2] Group 2: Plastic - Plastic price data from March 5 - 11, 2026, including东北亚乙烯, prices in different regions, LL美金, LL美湾,进口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 [12] - Day - to - day changes:东北亚乙烯 remained unchanged,华北LL increased by 200,华东LL increased by 275,华东HD decreased by 300,主力期货 increased by 387 [12] Group 3: Propylene and PP - Propylene and PP price data from March 5 - 11, 2026, including山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯, prices in different regions, PP美金, PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 [19] - Day - to - day changes:山东丙烯 decreased by 500,东北亚丙烯 decreased by 30,华东PP increased by 220,华北PP increased by 288,山东粉料 decreased by 570,华东共聚 increased by 290,主力期货 increased by 377 [19] Group 4: PVC - PVC price data from March 5 - 11, 2026, including西北电石,山东烧碱, prices in different regions,进口美金价,出口利润,西北综合利润,华北综合利润, and基差 [20][21] - Day - to - day changes:西北电石 increased by 50,电石法 - 华东 increased by 140 [21]
需求延续弱势,压制反弹空间
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-31 05:04
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand continues to be weak, suppressing the rebound space. For PE, the supply is high, the demand is in the off - season, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is suppressed by the supply - demand contradiction. For PP, the short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited variables, the demand is weak, and the short - term rebound drive is limited. The current cost and supply - demand contradictions are in a game, and the upward drive is insufficient, so the expected rebound height is limited [1][2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为6461元/吨(+8),PP主力合约收盘价为6321元/吨(+47),LL华北现货为6280元/吨(-20),LL华东现货为6400元/吨(+0),PP华东现货为6150元/吨(+10),LL华北基差为-181元/吨(-28),LL华东基差为-61元/吨(-8),PP华东基差为-171元/吨(-37) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为82.6%(-1.2%),PP开工率为76.9%(-2.5%)。PE油制生产利润为-24.2元/吨(-97.9),PP油制生产利润为-524.2元/吨(-97.9),PDH制PP生产利润为-793.1元/吨(+55.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为90.6元/吨(-0.3),PP进口利润为-380.2元/吨(-84.6),PP出口利润为-18.7美元/吨(+0.0) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为43.9%(-1.3%),PE下游包装膜开工率为48.2%(-0.7%),PP下游塑编开工率为43.7%(-0.3%),PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%(+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content Group 4: Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see. Currently, there is a game between the cost side and the supply - demand contradiction. With insufficient upward drive, the expected rebound height may be limited. - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 when it is high [4]