聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-21 基本面支撑有限，短期跟随成本端波动 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6640元/吨（-27），PP主力合约收盘价为6461元/吨（-21），LL华北现货为6540 元/吨（-120），LL华东现货为6700元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6410元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-100元/吨（-93）， LL华东基差为60元/吨（-3）， PP华东基差为-51元/吨（+21）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为81.6%（-2.1%），PP开工率为75.6%（+0.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为186.2元/吨（-103.7），PP油制生产利润为-373.8元/吨（-103.7），PDH制PP生产 利润为-628.5元/吨（-46.1）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为122.9元/吨（-117.3），PP进口利润为-406.7元/吨（-153.0），PP出口利润为-57.9美元/吨 （+3.5）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为36.9%（-1.0%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.2%（-0.8%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.6%（-0.3% ...

需求延续弱势，压制反弹空间 市场要闻与重要数据 聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-31 市场分析 PE方面，供应端维持高位，独山子石化2线与湛江巴斯夫临时检修，短期新增计划检修量有限，从现有检修计划看 明年一季度总体检修量级亦不高，供应宽松压力持续，厂家让利降库为主；需求端，PE下游进入需求淡季，下游 整体开工继续下滑，农膜开工进一步明显下滑，地膜需求驱动仍有限，后期农膜需求预期继续逐步转弱；包装膜 开工亦环比小幅下滑，刚性采购为主，需求支撑减弱。供增需弱格局使得社会库存延续累积，且LL和LD绝对社会 库存水平仍偏高，市场情绪谨慎下PE去库压力预期仍偏大。成本端国际油价近期反弹走高，成本面支撑有所回升。 总体来看需求淡季来临叠加供应端持续宽松，企业去库压力持续存在，现货端延续疲弱，基差偏弱，供需矛盾持 续压制价格。 PP方面，短期供需基本面变量有限，供应端，新增东华能源（宁波）检修，临时检修偏多使得PP开工环比下滑， 金能三线45万吨计划检修，1月存部分PDH装置预期检修，现货供应压力预期阶段性小幅缓解，供应端减量仍需等 待兑现；需求端，下游订单跟进有限，整体下游开工稳中下滑，仅BOPP开工维稳，形成一定需求支 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-26 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-92.6元/吨（+16.6），PP油制生产利润为-562.6元/吨（+16.6），PDH制PP生产利 润为-819.7元/吨（-10.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为40.7元/吨（+198.1），PP进口利润为-316.1元/吨（-14.6），PP出口利润为-16.1美元/吨 （-13.5）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为43.9%（-1.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.2%（-0.7%），PP下游塑编开工率 为43.7%（-0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.0%）。 市场分析 PE方面，供应端维持高位，扬子石化、茂名石化等装置计划重启，短期新增计划检修量有限，从现有检修计划看 明年一季度总体检修量级亦不高，且面临巴斯夫50万吨FDPE新装置即将达产释放，供应宽松压力持续；需求端， PE下游进入需求淡季，下游整体开工继续下滑，农膜开工进一步明显下滑，地膜需求驱动仍有限，后期农膜需求 预期继续逐步转弱；包装膜开工亦环比小幅下滑，刚性采购为主，需求支撑减弱。供增需弱格局使得社会库存延 续累积，且LL和LD绝 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Central Financial and Economic Work Conference determined the economic direction. With the improvement of market sentiment boosted by macro - policies, the polyolefin market stopped falling and rebounded. However, the current weak supply - demand fundamentals provide insufficient support for prices [3]. - For PE, the supply is expected to be loose and the demand is weak, with high inventory pressure and limited oil - based cost support. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to be substantially boosted, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, the demand follow - up is insufficient, the inventory level is high, and the cost support is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6557元/吨（+71），PP主力合约收盘价为6254元/吨（+125）；LL华北现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0）；LL华北基差为 - 57元/吨（-71），LL华东基差为23元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为 - 54元/吨（-125） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为84.1%（+0.1%），PP开工率为78.3%（+0.7%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为183.5元/吨（-105.5），PP油制生产利润为 - 436.5元/吨（-105.5），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 817.3元/吨（+75.2） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 112.2元/吨（-116.8），PP进口利润为 - 322.4元/吨（-26.9），PP出口利润为 - 10.6美元/吨（+3.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.9%（+0.3%） [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply side, in December, the overall PE maintenance volume is not high, and the planned maintenance volume in the future is also relatively limited. The PE start - up is expected to continue to rise, and a new 500,000 - ton FDPE device of BASF is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, so the supply pressure is continuous. Demand side, the overall downstream start - up of PE continues to decline, with the agricultural film start - up entering the off - season, and the demand for packaging film also weakening. Inventory side, although the PE social inventory is decreasing, the absolute inventory levels of LL and LD are still high, and the inventory pressure is expected to be large. Cost side, the oil price trend is weak, and the oil - based cost support is relatively limited [3]. - **PP**: Supply side, the previously shut - down enterprises are gradually restarting, the planned maintenance volume is relatively small, and the supply is expected to remain high. Demand side, the downstream demand start - up of BOPP, plastic weaving, etc. is okay, but the downstream replenishment is cautious. Inventory side, the overall inventory level is still high. Cost side, the international oil price is weak, and the cost support of PDH is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Go long on the L05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low; go long on the PP05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low [5]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for polyolefins continues to be weak, and the downstream开工率 has declined month - on - month. The market is facing challenges due to the approaching demand off - season and the continuous release of supply from existing plants. The short - term upward driving force is insufficient, and the market may fluctuate weakly at the bottom [1][4]. - The supply and demand situation of PE and PP is complex. PE has supply pressure due to new capacity release and weakening demand, while PP has a weak supply - demand reality in the short term, with limited improvement from current maintenance on the supply - side surplus [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6699 yuan/ton (- 8), and that of the PP main contract is 6295 yuan/ton (+ 30). LL and PP have different price and basis changes in different regions [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE开工率 is 84.5% (+ 1.8%), and the PP开工率 is 78.1% (- 0.1%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 329.9 yuan/ton (- 49.2), PP oil - based production profit is - 460.1 yuan/ton (- 49.2), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 475.5 yuan/ton (- 37.9) [2]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is 51.8 yuan/ton (+ 42.8), PP import profit is - 199.8 yuan/ton (+ 32.8), and PP export profit is - 20.9 US dollars/ton (- 23.8) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film开工率 is 49.0% (- 0.9%), the PE downstream packaging film开工率 is 50.7% (- 0.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 44.1% (- 0.1%), and the PP downstream BOPP film开工率 is 62.6% (+ 0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply pressure remains due to device overhauls and new capacity release, while the demand is entering the off - season, with high inventory - clearing pressure. The cost support from oil - based production is weak [3]. - **PP**: The supply - demand situation is weakly real in the short term, with the basis fluctuating at a low level. Temporary overhauls relieve some supply pressure, but the demand is insufficient, and the cost support from oil - based and PDH production is increasing [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The market may fluctuate weakly at the bottom due to the off - season demand and continuous supply release [4]. - **Inter - period**: Conduct high - level reverse arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 [4]. - **Inter - product**: No strategy is provided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for polyolefins continues to be weak, and the cost - side support is insufficient. The market for both PE and PP is facing challenges in supply - demand balance and cost support [1][3]. - For PE, the supply pressure remains due to new capacity release and limited future planned maintenance, while the demand is entering the off - season, and the cost support from oil - based production is weakening [3]. - For PP, the weak supply - demand situation persists in the short - term. Although some short - term maintenance eases the supply pressure to some extent, the demand is also weakening, and the cost support from oil - based production is weakening while that from PDH is strengthening [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6707 yuan/ton (-55), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6265 yuan/ton (-52). The LL North China spot price is 6800 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot price is 6900 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP East China spot price is 6350 yuan/ton (-10). The LL North China basis is 93 yuan/ton (+55), the LL East China basis is 193 yuan/ton (+55), and the PP East China basis is 85 yuan/ton (+42) [2]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 82.7% (-0.4%), and PP operating rate is 78.3% (-1.3%). The PE oil - based production profit is 379.1 yuan/ton (+82.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 400.9 yuan/ton (+82.6), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 437.6 yuan/ton (-23.2) [2]. 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is 8.9 yuan/ton (+20.0), the PP import profit is - 232.6 yuan/ton (-0.9), and the PP export profit is 2.9 US dollars/ton (+0.1) [2]. 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 49.9% (-0.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.7% (-0.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.2% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.0%) [2]. 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. 3.7 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see; in the short - term, with weak cost - side support, the futures market may show a weak bottom - side oscillating trend [4]. - Inter - period: For L01 - 05, conduct a reverse arbitrage at high prices; for PP01 - 05, conduct a reverse arbitrage at high prices [4]. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PE prices continue to decline in a volatile manner due to weakened cost - side support and an unimproved supply - demand imbalance. It will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2]. - PP's weak supply - demand situation is hard to reverse, and the cost - side support also weakens. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [3]. - For investment strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; for inter - period trading, conduct sell - near - buy - far arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6785 yuan/ton (-58), PP main contract at 6392 yuan/ton (-75). LL North China spot was 6840 yuan/ton (-10), LL East China spot 6900 yuan/ton (+50), PP East China spot 6480 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was 55 yuan/ton (+48), LL East China basis 115 yuan/ton (+108), PP East China basis 88 yuan/ton (+75) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 83.1% (+0.5%), PP operating rate 79.6% (+1.8%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 181.4 yuan/ton (+5.5), PP oil - based production profit - 428.6 yuan/ton (+5.5), PDH - based PP production profit - 278.7 yuan/ton (-65.3) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 20.7 yuan/ton (-11.8), PP import profit - 176.9 yuan/ton (+31.3), PP export profit - 4.4 dollars/ton (+1.5) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 50.0% (+0.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 50.4% (-0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 44.2% (-0.2%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 62.6% (+0.2%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PE - **Cost**: Coal prices dropped significantly, and oil prices fluctuated widely with long - term supply - demand pressure, weakening the cost - side support [2]. - **Supply**: Newly added device shutdowns in Ningxia Baofeng and Jilin Petrochemical, restarts in Zhenhai Refining and Sinochem Quanzhou. Future planned maintenance is limited, the operating rate continues to rise, and new production capacities such as Guangxi Petrochemical are gradually released, so supply pressure persists [2]. - **Demand**: PE downstream overall operating rate declined month - on - month. Agricultural film demand is expected to shrink, and packaging film operating rate decreased month - on - month. Overall downstream demand is still limited [2]. - **Inventory**: Due to the unimproved supply - demand contradiction, inventory pressure persists, and there is a lack of upward drivers in the short term [2]. 3.2.2 PP - **Cost**: Coal prices dropped significantly, and although international oil prices fluctuated widely and the price of propane rebounded slightly, cost support is still limited [3]. - **Supply**: Newly added device shutdowns in Sinochem Quanzhou Line 1 and Guangdong Petrochemical Line 2, and the full - scale shutdown of Juzhengyuan's 120 - million - ton PDH device for maintenance. Although short - term temporary maintenance eases supply pressure, it has limited impact on the oversupply pattern. Upstream is actively reducing prices to sell, but demand is weak, and inventory clearance pressure is high [3]. - **Demand**: Downstream overall operating rate is gradually weakening, mainly replenishing inventory on a just - in - time basis when prices are low. Demand follow - up is still weak [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The loose supply - demand fundamentals may limit its rebound space, and it will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see. It is in a short - term volatile pattern, and prices are still under pressure in the long term [4]. - **Inter - period**: Conduct sell - near - buy - far arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No recommendation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: L, PP neutral; - Inter - term: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - PE: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, leading to an enhanced supply surplus expectation and weak demand. International oil prices have fallen, weakening cost - side support. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is limited. After the price drops to a low level, it will fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances and macro - policy dynamics [2]. - PP: International oil prices have corrected, weakening oil - based cost support. There are still supply - demand contradictions, and short - term trends are still guided by the cost side. The supply - side pressure still exists, and demand is slowly recovering. The weak supply - demand fundamentals have not reversed, and the sustainability of price increases may be limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the cost side and the start - stop situation of PDH marginal devices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 7009 yuan/ton (+24), PP main contract at 6685 yuan/ton (+28). LL North China spot was 6960 yuan/ton (-20), LL East China spot at 7060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 6610 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (-44), LL East China basis at 51 yuan/ton (-24), PP East China basis at - 75 yuan/ton (-28) [1]. - Upstream supply: PE operating rate was 81.5% (-0.3%), PP operating rate was 75.9% (-2.3%) [1]. - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 382.3 yuan/ton (+110.9), PP oil - based production profit was - 307.7 yuan/ton (+110.9), PDH - based PP production profit was 54.5 yuan/ton (+45.3) [1]. - Import and export: LL import profit was - 16.3 yuan/ton (+20.7), PP import profit was - 295.4 yuan/ton (+10.4), PP export profit was - 16.6 US dollars/ton (-1.3) [1]. - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 47.1% (+4.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.6% (+0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.4% (+0.1%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+0.2%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Cost - side support weakens, supply is expected to increase, demand is limited, and short - term prices will fluctuate with limited upside space [2]. - PP: Cost - side support weakens, supply - demand contradictions remain, and the sustainability of price increases is limited [2]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP; - Inter - term: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of PE followed the cost side to stop falling and rebound due to a slight increase in the international oil price center, but the short - term cost side may still be limited. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand follow - up is limited. The price has fallen to a phased low, and the downward space may be limited [2]. - The cost - side support of PP has slightly recovered due to the rebound of oil prices and the stop - falling rebound of external propane. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, suppressing the price. The supply is expected to increase, the demand follow - up is insufficient, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. - The strategy suggests to wait and see for single - side trading, conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05, and shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract was 6936 yuan/ton (+53), and that of the PP main contract was 6619 yuan/ton (+36). LL and PP spot prices and basis also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), and the PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit was 491.8 yuan/ton (-23.8), the PP oil - based production profit was - 138.2 yuan/ton (-23.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit was 168.0 yuan/ton (+45.7) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit was - 147.4 yuan/ton (-0.2), the PP import profit was - 451.7 yuan/ton (+108.4), and the PP export profit was 32.2 US dollars/ton (+2.5) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), the PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), the PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost - side support is limited, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand follow - up is limited. The price has fallen to a low level, and the downward space may be limited [2]. - **PP**: The cost - side support has slightly recovered, but the supply - demand pattern is loose, the demand follow - up is insufficient, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see; short - term weak and volatile [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - L, PP neutral; L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; no cross - variety strategy [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Demand follow - up for both PE and PP is weak, suppressing their upward space. PE supply is increasing while demand improvement is limited, and inventory reduction is slow. PP demand is slowly recovering, and it is restricted by supply and has limited profit space [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7159 yuan/ton (-10), PP main contract at 6893 yuan/ton (-5). LL North China spot was 7140 yuan/ton (+10), LL East China spot 7140 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6750 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was -29 yuan/ton (+10), LL East China basis -19 yuan/ton (+10), PP East China basis -143 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 81.8% (+1.5%), PP operating rate 75.5% (+0.6%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was -1.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), PP oil - based production profit -631.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), PDH - made PP production profit -264.0 yuan/ton (-39.2) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was -56.7 yuan/ton (-1.9), PP import profit -532.6 yuan/ton (-1.9), PP export profit 15.3 US dollars/ton (+0.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 32.9% (+6.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 52.4% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 43.9% (+0.3%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 61.4% (+0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply is increasing as many restarted devices and few new planned maintenance. Demand has a slight improvement in pre - holiday stocking, but follow - up is insufficient. Cost support from oil prices is weak, and the market is in a volatile trend [2] - **PP**: Supply may increase as the restart of devices is expected to exceed maintenance. Demand is slowly recovering, but support is limited. Cost is affected by weak oil prices and strong propane, and profit restricts the downward space [3] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: L, PP neutral [4] - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4] - **Cross - variety**: None [4]