聚烯烃日报 | 2025-09-04 需求季节性转换，聚烯烃窄幅波动 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7247元/吨（-5），PP主力合约收盘价为6954元/吨（+11），LL华北现货为7180 元/吨（+10），LL华东现货为7170元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6830元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为-67元/吨（+15），LL 华东基差为-77元/吨（+5）， PP华东基差为-124元/吨（-31）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（+0.0%），PP开工率为80.2%（+2.0%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为107.1元/吨（-95.7），PP油制生产利润为-452.9元/吨（-95.7），PDH制PP生产利 润为-151.5元/吨（-125.4）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-280.1元/吨（-20.0），PP进口利润为-600.1元/吨（-50.0），PP出口利润为32.4美元/吨（+6.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为17.5%（+2.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.3%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.3%（+0.3%），PP下游B ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices rebounded, strengthening the cost support of oil - based production. Propane prices rose slightly, and the profit of PDH - made PP was near the break - even point. The number of PE shutdown and maintenance devices increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure. However, the overall current operation was still at a relatively high level, with inventory accumulation in production enterprises and certain de - stocking pressure upstream. The PP operation rate was flat month - on - month, and the inventory in the upstream and mid - stream links decreased slightly. The new 900,000 - ton/year Phase II device of Daxie Petrochemical started trial operation, and it was expected to produce qualified products soon. The continuous release of new production capacity would bring greater supply pressure in the long - term. The recovery of downstream demand was slow. The agricultural film entered the seasonal demand conversion stage, with the overall order follow - up slow and the terminal operation recovering slightly [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory a. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract was 7,423 yuan/ton (+43), and the closing price of the PP main contract was 7,074 yuan/ton (+36). The LL North China spot price was 7,270 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot price was 7,320 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP East China spot price was 6,980 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis was - 153 yuan/ton (-43), the LL East China basis was - 103 yuan/ton (-43), and the PP East China basis was - 94 yuan/ton (-36) [1] b. Production Profit and Operation Rate - The PE operation rate was 78.7% (-5.5%), and the PP operation rate was 78.2% (+0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit was 332.5 yuan/ton (+17.9), the PP oil - based production profit was - 247.5 yuan/ton (+17.9), and the PDH - made PP production profit was 88.2 yuan/ton (+12.0) [1] c. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not elaborated in the provided text d. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit was - 44.2 yuan/ton (+23.4), the PP import profit was - 556.9 yuan/ton (+3.4), and the PP export profit was 36.6 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1] e. Polyolefin Downstream Operation and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operation rate was 14.5% (+0.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operation rate was 49.9% (+0.8%), the PP downstream plastic braiding operation rate was 42.0% (+0.6%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operation rate was 60.7% (-0.5%) [1] f. Polyolefin Inventory - PE shutdown and maintenance devices increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure, but the overall current operation was still at a relatively high level, with inventory accumulation in production enterprises and certain de - stocking pressure upstream. The PP operation rate was flat month - on - month, and the inventory in the upstream and mid - stream links decreased slightly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The second - phase 900,000 - ton/year PP new device of Daxie Petrochemical, with a postponed initial plan, is now scheduled to be put into production around August 23 - 24. In the long - term, there is significant pressure from new PP capacity. Downstream factory start - up rates are rising slowly, inventory transfer is sluggish, and upstream inventory is accumulating. Cost - side support is weak, and the demand side is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, LL East China - main contract basis, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Figures cover LL production profit (crude oil - based), PE start - up rate, PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP start - up rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization rate [20][21][29] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Figures involve HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [28][35][36] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Figures include LL import profit, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, LL Europe FD - China CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), PP homopolymer injection molding US Gulf FOB - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR, and LL export profit [42][47][54] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profit - Figures show PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate, PE downstream packaging film start - up rate, PE downstream stretch film - LL - 2300, PP downstream woven bag start - up rate, PP downstream BOPP start - up rate, PP downstream injection molding start - up rate, PP downstream woven bag production gross profit, and PP downstream BOPP production gross profit [63][64][74] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures display PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory [73][79][84]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the import and export volumes of polyolefins in China continued to increase. The fundamentals of polyolefins were weak, with high upstream supply, rising inventories, and significant inventory pressure. Although the commissioning of some planned production capacity was postponed, the long - term pressure of new capacity was large. The cost support was weak, and the downstream demand was in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with a narrow recovery in terminal operation rates [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7347元/吨（+40），PP主力合约收盘价为7056元/吨（+40），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为 - 167元/吨（-80），LL华东基差为 - 47元/吨（-40），PP华东基差为 - 76元/吨（-60） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率为77.9%（+0.6%）；PE油制生产利润为455.9元/吨（+59.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 84.1元/吨（+59.4），PDH制PP生产利润为178.2元/吨（+6.6） [1] 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - The report does not provide detailed analysis and data for this part. 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL进口利润为 - 115.4元/吨（-4.0），PP进口利润为 - 545.0元/吨（-47.2），PP出口利润为35.1美元/吨（+0.5） [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%（+0.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.1%（-0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率为41.4%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.1%（+0.3%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report indicates that the inventories in the upstream and mid - stream sectors of polyolefins have been rising continuously, with significant inventory pressure, but no specific inventory data is provided [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - delivery: Reverse spread for 09 - 01 contracts [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - The polyolefin market has weak support due to slow demand follow - up. Macro factors offer no positive boost, causing the polyolefin futures to decline slightly. Supply pressure persists as previously shut - down plants restart. Although the postponed commissioning of the 90 - million - ton/year PP plant at Daxie Petrochemical eases short - term supply pressure, long - term new capacity pressure is significant. Cost support is weak as international oil prices are weak and propane prices are stable. The demand side is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, with slow improvement in terminal operations, providing limited market support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton (- 27), and the PP main contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton (- 32). LL North China spot was 7220 yuan/ton (- 30), LL East China spot was 7300 yuan/ton (+ 0), and PP East China spot was 7000 yuan/ton (+ 0). LL North China basis was - 87 yuan/ton (- 3), LL East China basis was - 7 yuan/ton (+ 27), and PP East China basis was - 16 yuan/ton (+ 32) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.2% (+ 0.1%), and PP operating rate was 77.9% (+ 0.6%). PE oil - based production profit was 396.5 yuan/ton (- 55.1), PP oil - based production profit was - 143.5 yuan/ton (- 55.1), and PDH - based PP production profit was 171.6 yuan/ton (- 18.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 111.4 yuan/ton (+ 3.6), PP import profit was - 497.8 yuan/ton (- 36.4), and PP export profit was 34.6 US dollars/ton (+ 4.5) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.8% (+ 0.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.1% (- 0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 41.4% (+ 0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.1% (+ 0.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data in the given text, but it is mentioned that upstream and mid - stream inventories are rising and inventory pressure is high [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market off - season continues, and polyolefins fluctuate downward. Downstream demand remains in the off - season, with low terminal operating rates, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and there is little hope of short - term improvement. The upstream petrochemical plants are in the maintenance season, with a slight increase in maintenance enterprises, a decline in capacity utilization, and continuous release of new capacity, so the overall supply maintains an incremental trend. Enterprises' inventories accumulate, and the destocking rate is slow. International oil prices rebound slightly, propane prices remain weak, and the overall cost support remains weak, while the profit of PDH - made PP remains slightly profitable [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7284元/吨（-7），PP主力合约收盘价为7067元/吨（-2），LL华北现货为7200元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7100元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为 - 84元/吨（-13），LL华东基差为 - 14元/吨（+7），PP华东基差为33元/吨（-18） [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为77.8%（-1.7%），PP开工率为76.6%（-0.8%）；PE油制生产利润为83.4元/吨（-125.8），PP油制生产利润为 - 306.6元/吨（-125.8），PDH制PP生产利润为231.2元/吨（+24.6） [1] 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 133.3元/吨（+8.4），PP进口利润为 - 628.4元/吨（-1.2），PP出口利润为28.8美元/吨（+0.2） [1] 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.6%（+0.5%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.1%（-0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率为42.0%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.6%（+0.3%） [1] 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The market trading of macro - positive factors has ended, and the atmosphere of waiting and seeing prevails. Downstream factories have low purchasing sentiment, and most end - users make purchases based on rigid demand. Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and the maintenance loss is on the rise, alleviating the market supply pressure and leading to a slight reduction in production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, international oil prices and propane prices are falling, the production profit of PDH - made PP has turned from loss to profit, and the cost - side support has weakened. The downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the bottom - up recovery of the agricultural film industry's start - up rate and the decline of the plastic weaving industry's start - up rate [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7245元/吨（-2），PP主力合约收盘价为7045元/吨（-12），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-30），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨（-28），LL华东基差为25元/吨（-18），PP华东基差为75元/吨（+12） [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%）；PE油制生产利润为166.2元/吨（-108.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 243.8元/吨（-108.4），PDH制PP生产利润为300.1元/吨（+0.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 109.6元/吨（-10.0），PP进口利润为 - 624.5元/吨（+86.2），PP出口利润为28.3美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为42.2%（-1.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.3%（-0.1%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and production inventory has a slight reduction [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core View - The military conflict between Israel and Iran continues, the macro - atmosphere persists, and polyolefins are running strongly, but the impact of the sentiment side is narrowing. International oil prices and propane prices are running strongly, and the cost support for polyolefins is strengthening. The previously shut - down PE plants have resumed operation, and some plants are scheduled for maintenance, with overall high - level operation. PP maintenance plants have returned, resulting in greater supply - side pressure. The overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction in the de - stocking range. The overall operating rates of downstream polyolefin industries have not changed much, and terminal enterprises have a small number of new orders, with cautious procurement [2] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7462 yuan/ton (+44), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7274 yuan/ton (+60). The spot price of LL in North China is 7450 yuan/ton (+80), the spot price of LL in East China is 7470 yuan/ton (+50), and the spot price of PP in East China is 7280 yuan/ton (+30). The basis of LL in North China is - 12 yuan/ton (+36), the basis of LL in East China is 8 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis of PP in East China is 6 yuan/ton (-30) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (-0.5%), PP operating rate is 78.6% (+1.6%). PE oil - based production profit is - 271.7 yuan/ton (+47.0), PP oil - based production profit is - 681.7 yuan/ton (+47.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 110.1 yuan/ton (-76.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - The document does not provide specific data for this part 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 4.3 yuan/ton (+22.4), PP import profit is - 347.3 yuan/ton (-31.0), and PP export profit is 0.4 US dollars/ton (-1.8) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.1% (-0.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.2% (+0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.6% (-0.8%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The document does not provide specific data for this part, only mentions that the overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction in the de - stocking range [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyolefin industry is neutral for unilateral trading, and there is no rating for inter - period trading [3] Core Viewpoints - Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, causing a significant increase in international oil prices. This has strengthened the cost support for polyolefins. PE's supply remains high as some previously - shut - down plants have resumed operation, while PP's supply pressure is large due to the return of shut - down plants. The upstream inventory reduction is limited. In the seasonal off - season, downstream demand is weak, mainly driven by rigid demand from end - users. Although the agricultural film industry has bottomed out, it is still at a low level, and demand is not sufficient to drive the market. PDH - based PP production is in the red, with new and extended plant shutdowns, providing strong cost support for PP [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7338元/吨（+80），PP主力合约收盘价为7133元/吨（+44），LL华北现货为7300元/吨（+100），LL华东现货为7350元/吨（+100），PP华东现货为7180元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为 - 38元/吨（+20），LL华东基差为12元/吨（+20），PP华东基差为47元/吨（ - 14） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.2%（+1.8%），PP开工率为78.6%（+1.6%）；PE油制生产利润为 - 244.8元/吨（ - 295.9），PP油制生产利润为 - 584.8元/吨（ - 295.9），PDH制PP生产利润为33.4元/吨（+97.2） [1] 3. Non - standard Price Spread of Polyolefins - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL进口利润为 - 205.0元/吨（ - 12.8），PP进口利润为 - 352.7元/吨（+62.1），PP出口利润为6.7美元/吨（ - 7.6） [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（ - 0.5%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（ - 0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.4%（ - 0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The terminal downstream demand for polyolefins has entered the traditional off - season, with limited market demand, general restocking enthusiasm, mainly rigid - demand procurement, and a cold market trading atmosphere. The supply side continues to increase, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly improved. Currently, the number of PE inventory maintenance devices has increased, alleviating the PE supply side. The previously shut - down PP devices have gradually restarted, and the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has been depleted. It is expected that the future supply will increase. The downstream demand is in the off - season, the agricultural film operating rate is at a low level, the packaging film operating rate fluctuates slightly, and the operating rates of industries such as plastic weaving and BOPP have increased slightly [2] - For the trading strategy, it is recommended to be cautiously bearish on plastics for single - side trading, and there is no strategy for inter - period trading [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 6972 yuan/ton (- 35), the PP main contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton (- 3), the LL North China spot was 7080 yuan/ton (- 50), the LL East China spot was 7200 yuan/ton (- 50), the PP East China spot was 7060 yuan/ton (+ 0), the LL North China basis was 108 yuan/ton (- 15), the LL East China basis was 228 yuan/ton (- 15), and the PP East China basis was 167 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 78.0% (- 1.4%), and the PP operating rate was 76.8% (+ 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit was 533.5 yuan/ton (- 10.5), the PP oil - based production profit was 103.5 yuan/ton (- 10.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 363.1 yuan/ton (- 91.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data presented in the provided content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was - 213.2 yuan/ton (- 64.7), the PP import profit was - 619.4 yuan/ton (- 85.1), and the PP export profit was 23.2 US dollars/ton (+ 10.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 14.1% (- 2.6%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.2% (+ 0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 45.7% (+ 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.2% (+ 0.2%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No relevant data presented in the provided content