1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the continuous fermentation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the release of a cease - fire signal by the US, the market's concern about the conflict escalation has cooled, leading to a significant decline in the futures prices of energy and chemical products. The decline in coal prices has also dragged down the prices of olefins. For PE, the supply is expected to tighten further, and the demand is gradually recovering, but the high - price raw materials make the downstream cautious. In the short term, the price still has support under the background of supply contraction. For PP, the supply is expected to continue to shrink, and the export demand is rising. In the short term, the price still has strong support due to the supply reduction and strong support from raw material propane [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 8614 yuan/ton (-190), the closing price of the PP main contract is 9103 yuan/ton (-166). LL North China spot is 8500 yuan/ton (-300), LL East China spot is 8600 yuan/ton (-330), PP East China spot is 9150 yuan/ton (-200). LL North China basis is -114 yuan/ton (-110), LL East China basis is -14 yuan/ton (-140), PP East China basis is 47 yuan/ton (-34) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 76.2% (-3.8%), PP operating rate is 70.0% (-0.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is -1195.9 yuan/ton (+415.7), PP oil - based production profit is -1015.9 yuan/ton (+415.7), PDH - made PP production profit is -3107.4 yuan/ton (+13.7) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is -497.9 yuan/ton (+431.4), PP import profit is -1076.1 yuan/ton (+268.3), PP export profit is 254.2 US dollars/ton (-45.0) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 38.9% (+3.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 47.2% (+1.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.1% (+0.9%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.4% (+1.5%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The domestic refineries are in the stage of concentrated load reduction, and the planned maintenance devices from the end of March to April will increase. The supply is expected to tighten. The demand is in the spring plowing season, and the rigid demand is gradually released, but the high - price raw materials make the downstream cautious. The inventory removal channel has not been continuously opened, but the basis has strengthened slightly. In the short term, the price still has support [3] - **PP**: The geopolitical conflict is still uncertain, and the supply of raw materials such as crude oil and propane is still a concern. The domestic refineries continue to reduce the load, and the PP operating rate is expected to decline to a low point in recent years. The supply continues to tighten, and the upstream inventory has been significantly reduced. The downstream operating rate is gradually rising, but the high - price PP squeezes the downstream profit, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The export window is open, and the export demand is rising. In the short term, the price still has strong support [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging - **Inter - period**: None - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously shrink the spread of LL05 - PP05 when it is high [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the polyethylene (PE) market show a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to rise. The demand side has limited restocking, and attention should be paid to the destocking rhythm after the downstream resumes work. The short - term cost support is strong, which boosts the price [3]. - For polypropylene (PP), geopolitical disturbances push up oil prices and propane prices, increasing the cost support. The supply is reduced in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term cost increase still boosts the price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the destocking rhythm of the upstream and middle - stream after the downstream resumes work [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,668 yuan/ton (-109), and that of the PP main contract is 6,675 yuan/ton (-45). The LL spot prices in North China and East China are 6,580 yuan/ton (-100) and 6,660 yuan/ton (-120) respectively. The PP spot price in East China is 6,650 yuan/ton (-30). The LL basis in North China is -88 yuan/ton (+9), the LL basis in East China is -8 yuan/ton (-11), and the PP basis in East China is -25 yuan/ton (+15) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-0.4%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -215.7 yuan/ton (+13.9), the PP oil - based production profit is -555.7 yuan/ton (+13.9), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -467.7 yuan/ton (+20.3) [1]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -42.0 yuan/ton (-17.3), the PP import profit is -390.5 yuan/ton (-58.0), and the PP export profit is -62.5 US dollars/ton (-8.2) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 10.1% (-14.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 24.7% (+4.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 29.3% (+5.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 36.7% (-6.0%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to rise. The demand side has limited restocking, and attention should be paid to the destocking rhythm after the downstream resumes work. The short - term cost support is strong, which boosts the price [3]. - **PP**: Geopolitical disturbances push up oil prices and propane prices, increasing the cost support. The supply is reduced in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term cost increase still boosts the price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the destocking rhythm of the upstream and middle - stream after the downstream resumes work [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see; in the short term, it mainly fluctuates with the cost side [5]. - **Inter - period**: Cautiously shrink the L05 - 09 spread when it is high [5]. - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE is rated neutral, and PP is rated neutral [5] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals provide limited support, and in the short term, it follows the fluctuations of the cost side. The market has returned to fundamental trading, and it may be weak and volatile in the short term [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,640 yuan/ton (-27), and that of the PP main contract is 6,461 yuan/ton (-21). The spot price of LL in North China is 6,540 yuan/ton (-120), and in East China is 6,700 yuan/ton (-30). The spot price of PP in East China is 6,410 yuan/ton (+0). The basis of LL in North China is -100 yuan/ton (-93), in East China is 60 yuan/ton (-3), and that of PP in East China is -51 yuan/ton (+21) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 81.6% (-2.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.6% (+0.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 186.2 yuan/ton (-103.7), the PP oil - based production profit is -373.8 yuan/ton (-103.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -628.5 yuan/ton (-46.1) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 122.9 yuan/ton (-117.3), the PP import profit is -406.7 yuan/ton (-153.0), and the PP export profit is -57.9 US dollars/ton (+3.5) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 36.9% (-1.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.2% (-0.8%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.6% (-0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.6% (+0.3%) [2] Market Analysis - **PE**: The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, and international oil prices have entered a volatile phase after falling from high levels. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the market trades on the weak PE fundamentals. The supply is expected to increase steadily as there are few short - term planned maintenance of existing devices, some previously shut - down devices plan to resume production, and some full - density devices return to producing standard products. The demand shows off - season characteristics, with the overall downstream operating rate declining, and downstream factories may be less willing to replenish inventory at high prices. The inventory has been transferred from producers to middle - stream traders, but there is still pressure to reduce inventory under high supply [3] - **PP**: After the macro - sentiment is digested and due to the weak demand in the off - season, the market has corrected from high levels. The supply side has few new short - term maintenance, but the PDH is in deep loss, and some devices have maintenance expectations. The demand was boosted during the previous price increase as downstream enterprises replenished inventory, but now the downstream is in the off - season, and the resistance to high prices has increased, with limited new orders. The inventory of the upstream and middle - stream has decreased, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of oil - based production has decreased, while the PDH - based cost still provides support [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: LLDPE and PP are both rated neutral. The market may be weak and volatile in the short term [5] - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided [5] - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand continues to be weak, suppressing the rebound space. For PE, the supply is high, the demand is in the off - season, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is suppressed by the supply - demand contradiction. For PP, the short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited variables, the demand is weak, and the short - term rebound drive is limited. The current cost and supply - demand contradictions are in a game, and the upward drive is insufficient, so the expected rebound height is limited [1][2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为6461元/吨（+8），PP主力合约收盘价为6321元/吨（+47），LL华北现货为6280元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为6400元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6150元/吨（+10），LL华北基差为-181元/吨（-28），LL华东基差为-61元/吨（-8），PP华东基差为-171元/吨（-37） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为82.6%（-1.2%），PP开工率为76.9%（-2.5%）。PE油制生产利润为-24.2元/吨（-97.9），PP油制生产利润为-524.2元/吨（-97.9），PDH制PP生产利润为-793.1元/吨（+55.3） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为90.6元/吨（-0.3），PP进口利润为-380.2元/吨（-84.6），PP出口利润为-18.7美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为43.9%（-1.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.2%（-0.7%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.7%（-0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content Group 4: Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see. Currently, there is a game between the cost side and the supply - demand contradiction. With insufficient upward drive, the expected rebound height may be limited. - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 when it is high [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall downstream operating rate of polyolefins continues to decline. For PE, the supply is high, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. For PP, the short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited variables, and the inventory level is still high. The cost side of both has some support due to the recent rebound in international oil prices. The current cost - supply - demand contradiction restricts the price, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient [3][4] 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6390 yuan/ton (-18), PP main contract at 6266 yuan/ton (-12). LL North China spot was 6250 yuan/ton (+50), LL East China spot 6400 yuan/ton (+30), PP East China spot 6140 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was -140 yuan/ton (+68), LL East China basis 10 yuan/ton (+48), PP East China basis -126 yuan/ton (+12) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 82.6% (-1.2%), PP operating rate 76.9% (-2.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was -92.6 yuan/ton (+16.6), PP oil - based production profit -562.6 yuan/ton (+16.6), PDH - made PP production profit -819.7 yuan/ton (-10.6) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was 40.7 yuan/ton (+198.1), PP import profit -316.1 yuan/ton (-14.6), PP export profit -16.1 US dollars/ton (-13.5) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 43.9% (-1.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 48.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 43.7% (-0.3%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 63.2% (+0.0%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply remains high, with some plants planning to restart and new production capacity to be released. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream operating rate is declining. The inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The cost support has increased due to the rise in international oil prices [3] - **PP**: The short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited variables. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. The inventory level is high. The cost support has increased due to the rise in international oil prices and propane prices [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see. The short - term sentiment drives the market to rebound, but the upward driving force is insufficient, and the rebound height is expected to be limited - **Inter - period**: No strategy - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 when it is high [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Central Financial and Economic Work Conference determined the economic direction. With the improvement of market sentiment boosted by macro - policies, the polyolefin market stopped falling and rebounded. However, the current weak supply - demand fundamentals provide insufficient support for prices [3]. - For PE, the supply is expected to be loose and the demand is weak, with high inventory pressure and limited oil - based cost support. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to be substantially boosted, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, the demand follow - up is insufficient, the inventory level is high, and the cost support is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6557元/吨（+71），PP主力合约收盘价为6254元/吨（+125）；LL华北现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0）；LL华北基差为 - 57元/吨（-71），LL华东基差为23元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为 - 54元/吨（-125） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为84.1%（+0.1%），PP开工率为78.3%（+0.7%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为183.5元/吨（-105.5），PP油制生产利润为 - 436.5元/吨（-105.5），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 817.3元/吨（+75.2） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 112.2元/吨（-116.8），PP进口利润为 - 322.4元/吨（-26.9），PP出口利润为 - 10.6美元/吨（+3.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.9%（+0.3%） [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply side, in December, the overall PE maintenance volume is not high, and the planned maintenance volume in the future is also relatively limited. The PE start - up is expected to continue to rise, and a new 500,000 - ton FDPE device of BASF is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, so the supply pressure is continuous. Demand side, the overall downstream start - up of PE continues to decline, with the agricultural film start - up entering the off - season, and the demand for packaging film also weakening. Inventory side, although the PE social inventory is decreasing, the absolute inventory levels of LL and LD are still high, and the inventory pressure is expected to be large. Cost side, the oil price trend is weak, and the oil - based cost support is relatively limited [3]. - **PP**: Supply side, the previously shut - down enterprises are gradually restarting, the planned maintenance volume is relatively small, and the supply is expected to remain high. Demand side, the downstream demand start - up of BOPP, plastic weaving, etc. is okay, but the downstream replenishment is cautious. Inventory side, the overall inventory level is still high. Cost side, the international oil price is weak, and the cost support of PDH is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Go long on the L05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low; go long on the PP05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low [5]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for polyolefins continues to be weak, and the downstream开工率 has declined month - on - month. The market is facing challenges due to the approaching demand off - season and the continuous release of supply from existing plants. The short - term upward driving force is insufficient, and the market may fluctuate weakly at the bottom [1][4]. - The supply and demand situation of PE and PP is complex. PE has supply pressure due to new capacity release and weakening demand, while PP has a weak supply - demand reality in the short term, with limited improvement from current maintenance on the supply - side surplus [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6699 yuan/ton (- 8), and that of the PP main contract is 6295 yuan/ton (+ 30). LL and PP have different price and basis changes in different regions [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE开工率 is 84.5% (+ 1.8%), and the PP开工率 is 78.1% (- 0.1%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 329.9 yuan/ton (- 49.2), PP oil - based production profit is - 460.1 yuan/ton (- 49.2), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 475.5 yuan/ton (- 37.9) [2]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is 51.8 yuan/ton (+ 42.8), PP import profit is - 199.8 yuan/ton (+ 32.8), and PP export profit is - 20.9 US dollars/ton (- 23.8) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film开工率 is 49.0% (- 0.9%), the PE downstream packaging film开工率 is 50.7% (- 0.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 44.1% (- 0.1%), and the PP downstream BOPP film开工率 is 62.6% (+ 0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply pressure remains due to device overhauls and new capacity release, while the demand is entering the off - season, with high inventory - clearing pressure. The cost support from oil - based production is weak [3]. - **PP**: The supply - demand situation is weakly real in the short term, with the basis fluctuating at a low level. Temporary overhauls relieve some supply pressure, but the demand is insufficient, and the cost support from oil - based and PDH production is increasing [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The market may fluctuate weakly at the bottom due to the off - season demand and continuous supply release [4]. - **Inter - period**: Conduct high - level reverse arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 [4]. - **Inter - product**: No strategy is provided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for polyolefins continues to be weak, and the cost - side support is insufficient. The market for both PE and PP is facing challenges in supply - demand balance and cost support [1][3]. - For PE, the supply pressure remains due to new capacity release and limited future planned maintenance, while the demand is entering the off - season, and the cost support from oil - based production is weakening [3]. - For PP, the weak supply - demand situation persists in the short - term. Although some short - term maintenance eases the supply pressure to some extent, the demand is also weakening, and the cost support from oil - based production is weakening while that from PDH is strengthening [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6707 yuan/ton (-55), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6265 yuan/ton (-52). The LL North China spot price is 6800 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot price is 6900 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP East China spot price is 6350 yuan/ton (-10). The LL North China basis is 93 yuan/ton (+55), the LL East China basis is 193 yuan/ton (+55), and the PP East China basis is 85 yuan/ton (+42) [2]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 82.7% (-0.4%), and PP operating rate is 78.3% (-1.3%). The PE oil - based production profit is 379.1 yuan/ton (+82.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 400.9 yuan/ton (+82.6), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 437.6 yuan/ton (-23.2) [2]. 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is 8.9 yuan/ton (+20.0), the PP import profit is - 232.6 yuan/ton (-0.9), and the PP export profit is 2.9 US dollars/ton (+0.1) [2]. 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 49.9% (-0.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.7% (-0.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.2% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.0%) [2]. 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. 3.7 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see; in the short - term, with weak cost - side support, the futures market may show a weak bottom - side oscillating trend [4]. - Inter - period: For L01 - 05, conduct a reverse arbitrage at high prices; for PP01 - 05, conduct a reverse arbitrage at high prices [4]. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PE prices continue to decline in a volatile manner due to weakened cost - side support and an unimproved supply - demand imbalance. It will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2]. - PP's weak supply - demand situation is hard to reverse, and the cost - side support also weakens. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [3]. - For investment strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; for inter - period trading, conduct sell - near - buy - far arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6785 yuan/ton (-58), PP main contract at 6392 yuan/ton (-75). LL North China spot was 6840 yuan/ton (-10), LL East China spot 6900 yuan/ton (+50), PP East China spot 6480 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was 55 yuan/ton (+48), LL East China basis 115 yuan/ton (+108), PP East China basis 88 yuan/ton (+75) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 83.1% (+0.5%), PP operating rate 79.6% (+1.8%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 181.4 yuan/ton (+5.5), PP oil - based production profit - 428.6 yuan/ton (+5.5), PDH - based PP production profit - 278.7 yuan/ton (-65.3) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 20.7 yuan/ton (-11.8), PP import profit - 176.9 yuan/ton (+31.3), PP export profit - 4.4 dollars/ton (+1.5) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 50.0% (+0.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 50.4% (-0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 44.2% (-0.2%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 62.6% (+0.2%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PE - **Cost**: Coal prices dropped significantly, and oil prices fluctuated widely with long - term supply - demand pressure, weakening the cost - side support [2]. - **Supply**: Newly added device shutdowns in Ningxia Baofeng and Jilin Petrochemical, restarts in Zhenhai Refining and Sinochem Quanzhou. Future planned maintenance is limited, the operating rate continues to rise, and new production capacities such as Guangxi Petrochemical are gradually released, so supply pressure persists [2]. - **Demand**: PE downstream overall operating rate declined month - on - month. Agricultural film demand is expected to shrink, and packaging film operating rate decreased month - on - month. Overall downstream demand is still limited [2]. - **Inventory**: Due to the unimproved supply - demand contradiction, inventory pressure persists, and there is a lack of upward drivers in the short term [2]. 3.2.2 PP - **Cost**: Coal prices dropped significantly, and although international oil prices fluctuated widely and the price of propane rebounded slightly, cost support is still limited [3]. - **Supply**: Newly added device shutdowns in Sinochem Quanzhou Line 1 and Guangdong Petrochemical Line 2, and the full - scale shutdown of Juzhengyuan's 120 - million - ton PDH device for maintenance. Although short - term temporary maintenance eases supply pressure, it has limited impact on the oversupply pattern. Upstream is actively reducing prices to sell, but demand is weak, and inventory clearance pressure is high [3]. - **Demand**: Downstream overall operating rate is gradually weakening, mainly replenishing inventory on a just - in - time basis when prices are low. Demand follow - up is still weak [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The loose supply - demand fundamentals may limit its rebound space, and it will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see. It is in a short - term volatile pattern, and prices are still under pressure in the long term [4]. - **Inter - period**: Conduct sell - near - buy - far arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No recommendation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: L, PP neutral; - Inter - term: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - PE: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, leading to an enhanced supply surplus expectation and weak demand. International oil prices have fallen, weakening cost - side support. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is limited. After the price drops to a low level, it will fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances and macro - policy dynamics [2]. - PP: International oil prices have corrected, weakening oil - based cost support. There are still supply - demand contradictions, and short - term trends are still guided by the cost side. The supply - side pressure still exists, and demand is slowly recovering. The weak supply - demand fundamentals have not reversed, and the sustainability of price increases may be limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the cost side and the start - stop situation of PDH marginal devices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 7009 yuan/ton (+24), PP main contract at 6685 yuan/ton (+28). LL North China spot was 6960 yuan/ton (-20), LL East China spot at 7060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 6610 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (-44), LL East China basis at 51 yuan/ton (-24), PP East China basis at - 75 yuan/ton (-28) [1]. - Upstream supply: PE operating rate was 81.5% (-0.3%), PP operating rate was 75.9% (-2.3%) [1]. - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 382.3 yuan/ton (+110.9), PP oil - based production profit was - 307.7 yuan/ton (+110.9), PDH - based PP production profit was 54.5 yuan/ton (+45.3) [1]. - Import and export: LL import profit was - 16.3 yuan/ton (+20.7), PP import profit was - 295.4 yuan/ton (+10.4), PP export profit was - 16.6 US dollars/ton (-1.3) [1]. - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 47.1% (+4.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.6% (+0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.4% (+0.1%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+0.2%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Cost - side support weakens, supply is expected to increase, demand is limited, and short - term prices will fluctuate with limited upside space [2]. - PP: Cost - side support weakens, supply - demand contradictions remain, and the sustainability of price increases is limited [2]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP; - Inter - term: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3]