1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: L, PP neutral; - Inter - term: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - PE: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, leading to an enhanced supply surplus expectation and weak demand. International oil prices have fallen, weakening cost - side support. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is limited. After the price drops to a low level, it will fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances and macro - policy dynamics [2]. - PP: International oil prices have corrected, weakening oil - based cost support. There are still supply - demand contradictions, and short - term trends are still guided by the cost side. The supply - side pressure still exists, and demand is slowly recovering. The weak supply - demand fundamentals have not reversed, and the sustainability of price increases may be limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the cost side and the start - stop situation of PDH marginal devices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 7009 yuan/ton (+24), PP main contract at 6685 yuan/ton (+28). LL North China spot was 6960 yuan/ton (-20), LL East China spot at 7060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 6610 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (-44), LL East China basis at 51 yuan/ton (-24), PP East China basis at - 75 yuan/ton (-28) [1]. - Upstream supply: PE operating rate was 81.5% (-0.3%), PP operating rate was 75.9% (-2.3%) [1]. - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 382.3 yuan/ton (+110.9), PP oil - based production profit was - 307.7 yuan/ton (+110.9), PDH - based PP production profit was 54.5 yuan/ton (+45.3) [1]. - Import and export: LL import profit was - 16.3 yuan/ton (+20.7), PP import profit was - 295.4 yuan/ton (+10.4), PP export profit was - 16.6 US dollars/ton (-1.3) [1]. - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 47.1% (+4.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.6% (+0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.4% (+0.1%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+0.2%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Cost - side support weakens, supply is expected to increase, demand is limited, and short - term prices will fluctuate with limited upside space [2]. - PP: Cost - side support weakens, supply - demand contradictions remain, and the sustainability of price increases is limited [2]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP; - Inter - term: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of PE followed the cost side to stop falling and rebound due to a slight increase in the international oil price center, but the short - term cost side may still be limited. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand follow - up is limited. The price has fallen to a phased low, and the downward space may be limited [2]. - The cost - side support of PP has slightly recovered due to the rebound of oil prices and the stop - falling rebound of external propane. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, suppressing the price. The supply is expected to increase, the demand follow - up is insufficient, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. - The strategy suggests to wait and see for single - side trading, conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05, and shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract was 6936 yuan/ton (+53), and that of the PP main contract was 6619 yuan/ton (+36). LL and PP spot prices and basis also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), and the PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit was 491.8 yuan/ton (-23.8), the PP oil - based production profit was - 138.2 yuan/ton (-23.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit was 168.0 yuan/ton (+45.7) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit was - 147.4 yuan/ton (-0.2), the PP import profit was - 451.7 yuan/ton (+108.4), and the PP export profit was 32.2 US dollars/ton (+2.5) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), the PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), the PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost - side support is limited, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand follow - up is limited. The price has fallen to a low level, and the downward space may be limited [2]. - **PP**: The cost - side support has slightly recovered, but the supply - demand pattern is loose, the demand follow - up is insufficient, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see; short - term weak and volatile [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

聚烯烃周报 | 2025-09-28 需求跟进偏弱，压制聚烯烃上行空间 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7159元/吨（-10），PP主力合约收盘价为6893元/吨（-5），LL华北现货为7140 元/吨（+10），LL华东现货为7140元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6750元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-29元/吨（+10），LL 华东基差为-19元/吨（+10）， PP华东基差为-143元/吨（+5）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为81.8%（+1.5%），PP开工率为75.5%（+0.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-1.8元/吨（-55.8），PP油制生产利润为-631.8元/吨（-55.8），PDH制PP生产利润 为-264.0元/吨（-39.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-56.7元/吨（-1.9），PP进口利润为-532.6元/吨（-1.9），PP出口利润为15.3美元/吨（+0.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为32.9%（+6.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.4%（+0.6%），PP下游塑编开工 率为43.9%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The demand for both PE and PP remains weak, which continues to limit their upward potential and is still constrained by supply - side pressure. The recovery of demand is slow, and the cost support is insufficient. For PE, the supply is increasing, and the demand realization rate is slow; for PP, the supply pressure is large, and the profit at a low level restricts its downward space [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main - contract closed at 7,169 yuan/ton (+27), PP main - contract at 6,898 yuan/ton (+21). LL North China spot was 7,130 yuan/ton (+50), LL East China spot 7,140 yuan/ton (+30), PP East China spot 6,750 yuan/ton (+20). LL North China basis was - 39 yuan/ton (+23), LL East China basis - 29 yuan/ton (+3), PP East China basis - 148 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (+1.5%), PP开工率 was 75.5% (+0.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 48.7 yuan/ton (-128.7), PP oil - based production profit was - 571.3 yuan/ton (-128.7), PDH - based PP production profit was - 280.6 yuan/ton (-12.9) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 64.1 yuan/ton (+84.8), PP import profit was - 529.7 yuan/ton (-0.8), PP export profit was 15.0 US dollars/ton (-19.9) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 32.9% (+6.1%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.4% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 43.9% (+0.3%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.4% (+0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply increased as many previously - shut - down plants restarted. Demand improved slightly with pre - holiday stocking, but the demand realization rate was slow, and social inventory decreased slowly. Cost support from international oil prices was insufficient [3]. - **PP**: Supply pressure was large due to expected restart of plants, increased coal - enterprise production, and new capacity release. Demand improved marginally but slowly. Cost was supported by firm propane, and low profit limited the downward space [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for L and PP is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market continues its weak consolidation due to slow demand follow - up. For PE, supply exceeds expectations, demand improvement is slow, and cost support is insufficient, so its trend is suppressed by supply. For PP, supply pressure is large, demand recovery is slow, and low profit limits its downside [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main - contract closing price is 7105 yuan/ton (- 25), PP main - contract closing price is 6842 yuan/ton (- 31), LL North China spot price is 7070 yuan/ton (- 40), LL East China spot price is 7110 yuan/ton (- 60), PP East China spot price is 6730 yuan/ton (+ 0), LL North China basis is - 35 yuan/ton (- 15), LL East China basis is 5 yuan/ton (- 35), and PP East China basis is - 112 yuan/ton (+ 31) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 80.4% (+ 2.3%), PP operating rate is 74.9% (- 1.9%). PE oil - based production profit is 316.5 yuan/ton (+ 9.5), PP oil - based production profit is - 363.5 yuan/ton (+ 9.5), PDH - based PP production profit is - 267.8 yuan/ton (- 8.2) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Information not summarized from the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 91.3 yuan/ton (+ 1.5), PP import profit is - 531.3 yuan/ton (+ 1.5), PP export profit is 35.2 US dollars/ton (- 0.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 26.8% (+ 2.6%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 51.8% (+ 0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.6% (+ 0.5%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.4% (- 0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Information not summarized from the given text Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP - Inter - period: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 - Inter - variety: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - The supply of PE is expected to increase due to device restarts, while the PP device production profit has shrunk significantly, leading to a decline in PP开工. The downstream demand is in the seasonal improvement stage of "Golden September", but the demand fulfillment rate is slow and the support is limited. The cost support has weakened as oil prices are under pressure and the external propane has corrected [2] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the plastic futures main contract trend, LL East China - main contract basis, polypropylene futures main contract trend, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工 rate is 80.4% (+2.3%), PP开工 rate is 74.9% (-1.9%). PE oil - based production profit is 219.0 yuan/ton (+48.1), PP oil - based production profit is - 411.0 yuan/ton (+48.1), PDH - made PP production profit is - 247.5 yuan/ton (+55.5) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Figures show HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [27][35][38] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is - 81.1 yuan/ton (+11.0), PP import profit is - 471.1 yuan/ton (+11.0), PP export profit is 27.7 US dollars/ton (-1.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 26.8% (+2.6%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 51.8% (+0.5%), PP downstream woven operating rate is 43.6% (+0.5%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.4% (-0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures show PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, PP port inventory [75][78][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International oil prices rebounded, and propane prices continued to rise, providing cost - side support for a slight rebound in the polyolefin market. Upstream supply is expected to remain at a high level, but there is significant inventory pressure. Downstream demand is in a seasonally improving phase, with overall downstream factory operating rates rising slightly, but the fundamental situation remains weak [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7232元/吨（+63），PP主力合约收盘价为6966元/吨（+53），LL华北现货为7160元/吨（+10），LL华东现货为7170元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6800元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 72元/吨（-53），LL华东基差为 - 62元/吨（-63），PP华东基差为 - 166元/吨（-53） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为78.0%（-2.5%），PP开工率为76.8%（-3.1%）；PE油制生产利润为277.0元/吨（-69.2），PP油制生产利润为 - 333.0元/吨（-69.2），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 271.2元/吨（+64.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the summarized content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 101.2元/吨（-22.4），PP进口利润为 - 471.2元/吨（+40.4），PP出口利润为27.7美元/吨（+0.3） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为24.1%（+3.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（+0.8%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.1%（+0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.1%） [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure is large, but specific inventory data is not provided in the summarized content [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - delivery: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L - P [3] Core Viewpoints - The fundamental situation of strong expectations and weak reality continues, and polyolefins are in weak consolidation. Multiple PE units are under maintenance, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate and a projected slight relief in supply pressure, while new PP production capacity is ramping up. Downstream demand is in the transitional period between the seasonal peak and off - peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The operating rates of downstream sectors such as agricultural films and packaging films show a slight upward trend, while those of plastic weaving and BOPP films are flat compared to the previous period. Upstream production inventory has slightly increased, mid - stream inventory has decreased, and downstream rigid - demand procurement has increased. With the arrival of the peak demand season in mid - to late September, the downstream operating rate is expected to rise, and the short - term supply - demand margin may improve. Crude oil is in weak consolidation, the profit of PDH - based PP is slightly in the red, and the maintenance volume of PDH units has increased [2] Summary by Related Catalogs I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, as well as the basis between LL in East China and the main contract, and PP in East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the production profits of LL (crude - oil - based), PP (crude - oil - based and PDH - based), and the operating rates of PE and PP, along with the weekly production and maintenance losses of PE and PP, and the capacity utilization rate of PDH - based PP [22][23][29] III. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - The differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and the differences between PP low - melt copolymer, PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China are presented [28][36][37] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The import profits of LL and PP, the export profit of PP to Southeast Asia, and the price differences between LL in different regions (US Gulf FOB - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, Europe FD - China CFR) and PP in different regions (PP homopolymer injection molding in US Gulf FOB - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR) are shown [44][51][54] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The operating rates of PE downstream agricultural films, packaging films, winding films, and PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, as well as the production profits of PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP are presented [63][64][73] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports are shown [75][79][81]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L - P [3] Core View - The peak demand season has arrived, but it is still mainly for rigid - demand procurement, with the market fluctuating narrowly. Multiple PE units are under maintenance, and the overall operating rate has slightly decreased, with supply pressure expected to ease slightly, while new PP production capacity is being released. Downstream demand is in the transition period between the "Golden September and Silver October" seasonal off - peak and peak seasons, and the operating rates of downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films show a slight upward trend. The upstream production inventory has increased slightly, while the inventory in the middle - stream has decreased. As the peak demand season arrives in mid - to late September, the downstream operating rate is expected to rise, and the short - term supply - demand margin may improve. Crude oil is weakly consolidating, and the profit of PDH - made PP is slightly in the red, with an increase in the maintenance volume of PDH units [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L (LLDPE) main contract closed at 7229 yuan/ton (- 22), and the PP main contract closed at 6949 yuan/ton (- 19). The LL North China spot price was 7180 yuan/ton (+ 30), the LL East China spot price was 7190 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the PP East China spot price was 6800 yuan/ton (+ 0). The LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 52), the LL East China basis was - 39 yuan/ton (+ 42), and the PP East China basis was - 149 yuan/ton (+ 19) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 80.5% (+ 1.9%), and the PP operating rate was 79.9% (- 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit was 344.5 yuan/ton (- 41.0), the PP oil - based production profit was - 265.5 yuan/ton (- 41.0), and the PDH - made PP production profit was - 296.9 yuan/ton (- 21.8) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit was - 238.9 yuan/ton (- 1.6), the PP import profit was - 523.0 yuan/ton (+ 54.2), and the PP export profit was 38.8 US dollars/ton (+ 3.9) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 20.2% (+ 2.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 50.5% (+ 0.9%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.7% (+ 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+ 1.0) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream production inventory increased slightly, and the inventory in the middle - stream decreased [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of polyolefins has increased significantly due to the commissioning of new capacity and the increase in the overall operating rate of existing devices. The upstream inventory has shifted downward, with a slight decrease in production enterprise inventory and inventory accumulation in the middle - link, resulting in certain pressure on the supply side. The cost - end support is weak, and the demand side is slowly rising but lacks short - term new orders, with limited upward - driving force [3]. - For trading strategies, a neutral stance is taken for single - side trading; a 01 - 05 reverse spread is recommended for inter - period trading; and going long on the L - P spread is suggested for inter - variety trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7247 yuan/ton (- 5), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6954 yuan/ton (+ 11). The LL spot price in North China is 7180 yuan/ton (+ 10), in East China is 7170 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the PP spot price in East China is 6830 yuan/ton (- 20). The LL basis in North China is - 67 yuan/ton (+ 15), in East China is - 77 yuan/ton (+ 5), and the PP basis in East China is - 124 yuan/ton (- 31) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 78.7% (+ 0.0%), and the PP operating rate is 80.2% (+ 2.0%). The PE oil - based production profit is 107.1 yuan/ton (- 95.7), the PP oil - based production profit is - 452.9 yuan/ton (- 95.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 151.5 yuan/ton (- 125.4) [1]. 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - Not provided with specific content in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 280.1 yuan/ton (- 20.0), the PP import profit is - 600.1 yuan/ton (- 50.0), and the PP export profit is 32.4 US dollars/ton (+ 6.2) [2]. 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 17.5% (+ 2.9%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 49.6% (- 0.3%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 42.3% (+ 0.3%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 60.4% (- 0.3%) [2]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream inventory has shifted downward, with a slight decrease in production enterprise inventory and inventory accumulation in the middle - link, indicating certain pressure on the supply side [3].