智通财经APP获悉，群智咨询发文称，进入四季度，智能手机面板市场呈现 "整体季度性增长、技术路线分化加剧"的格局。低端面板凭借华南 市场支撑需求高企，FOLED 受益于旗舰机型备货周期实现出货增长，而 LTPS LCD、ROLED 则面临需求挤压，这种分化态势进一步传导至价 格端，推动四季度各技术路线面板价格呈现差异化走向。 Tablet面板 具体分析如下： a-Si LCD：需求韧性支撑，迎小幅涨价窗口 a-Si LCD面板的需求韧性主要有双重支撑：一是其高性价比属性契合下游品牌在低端市场的成本控制需求，成为入门机型的核心选择;二是下 沉市场白牌机型订单稳定，叠加售后维修市场的持续性，形成需求基本盘。而且，部分旧机种的维修规格，有小量的加单需求。#群智咨询 (Sigmaintell)预计四季度a-Si LCD面板(Cell)将在华南市场迎来小幅涨价。 LTPS LCD：供需双减格局下价格维持平稳 当前智能手机市场对 LTPS LCD 面板的供需预期均处于低位：需求端，中低端机型更倾向选择性价比更高的 a-Si LCD，中高端机型则逐步向 OLED切换，导致 LTPS LCD 的应用场景持续收缩;供应端，面板 ...

Core Insights - The global smartphone terminal market is experiencing stable demand, with brand competition focusing on pricing and channel strategies. However, market growth is shrinking due to increased inventory and strong cost-reduction demands from terminal brands [1][2]. Panel Demand Analysis - **a-Si LCD**: Demand remains high due to stable needs from white-label customers and the repair market, but price sensitivity in the low-end market leads to slight price reductions from suppliers [1]. - **LTPS LCD**: Both supply and demand are expected to remain low, with manufacturers shifting capacity to mid-size products, resulting in stable prices for LTPS LCD smartphone panels [1][4]. - **ROLED**: Prices for rigid OLED panels have slightly decreased, but demand has not significantly increased due to more brands shifting towards FOLED [2]. - **FOLED**: Demand is expected to grow in the third quarter, but intense competition during project bidding has led to a disconnect between demand growth and price reductions [2]. Tablet Panel Market - In the domestic market, tablet sales exceeded expectations during the "618" promotion, but demand is adjusting post-promotion, leading to reduced panel procurement by some brands. Ongoing tightening of national subsidies is further suppressing consumer purchasing intent [3]. - In North America, overall consumer demand remains weak despite cost transfers from supply chain shifts not yet impacting end prices [3]. Supply Side Overview - **a-Si LCD**: Demand related to tablets remains stable, with prices holding steady [4]. - **LTPS Production Lines**: Despite pressure on smartphone panel demand, strong demand for mid-size products keeps production lines operating at high utilization rates, maintaining stable prices [4].

Core Insights - The global smartphone panel market is experiencing moderate growth, with a projected shipment of approximately 1.09 billion units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [1] Segment Summaries Flexible OLED Market - The flexible OLED segment is benefiting from continuous cost optimization and penetration into mid-range smartphone models, with shipments nearing 300 million units in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.2% [3] - The market share of flexible OLED is steadily increasing, driven by demand from various mid to low-end smartphone brands [3] a-Si LCD Market - The a-Si LCD segment is showing resilience in a volatile global economic environment, with shipments reaching approximately 640 million units in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of about 14.2% [2] - The cost advantage of a-Si LCD panels is contributing to their growth in shipments [2] LTPS LCD Market - The LTPS LCD market is experiencing a significant decline, with shipments falling below 50 million units for the first time, totaling approximately 48 million units, a decrease of about 56.1% year-on-year [2] - Manufacturers are shifting production capacity towards automotive, tablet, and laptop segments to seek new growth opportunities [2] Rigid OLED Market - Rigid OLED shipments are projected to be around 100 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of approximately 12.8% [2] - The market share of rigid OLED is expected to continue decreasing as flexible OLED technology penetrates more mid-range smartphone models [2] Competitive Landscape - BOE remains the leading player in the global smartphone panel market, with a total shipment of approximately 260 million units in the first half of 2025, capturing a market share of 24.2% [6] - Samsung Display ranks second with total shipments exceeding 170 million units, holding a market share of 15.7% [6] - CSOT has shown significant growth, with total shipments of approximately 140 million units, a year-on-year increase of 50.5%, and a market share of 12.7% [6] Regional Insights - Korean manufacturers continue to dominate the high-end smartphone panel market, holding a total market share of 49.1% in the first half of 2025 [8] - Chinese manufacturers have captured a 50.9% share of the global OLED panel market, with flexible OLED shipments reaching approximately 190 million units, representing a market share of 62.3% [8] Future Outlook - The OLED industry is expected to follow a development path characterized by cost optimization, increased penetration rates, and expansion into new applications [10] - The demand for smartphone OLED panels is anticipated to continue growing due to favorable factors such as cost reductions and clearer production line planning [10]

Group 1: Key Insights on Energy Storage and New Energy - Major energy storage companies have diverse business models and regional layouts, with promising expansion in non-US markets [2][10] - The report highlights the strong performance of leading companies like Sungrow Power Supply and Aiko Solar in the energy storage sector, particularly in overseas markets [7][8] - The demand for energy storage in Europe, the Middle East, and Australia is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase in installed capacity [9][10] Group 2: Key Insights on Coal Industry - The coal market is currently experiencing a bottoming phase, with both thermal and coking coal prices stabilizing, and potential exits of high-cost mines [3][14] - The average sales cost for thermal coal is approximately 291 RMB/ton, while for coking coal it is about 507 RMB/ton, indicating profitability for thermal coal producers [12] - The coal industry is expected to maintain high dividend yields, with an average cash dividend payout ratio of around 62% for major listed coal companies in 2024 [14][13] Group 3: Key Insights on Semiconductor Industry - The rise of edge AI computing is driving demand for AI-enhanced System on Chip (SoC) solutions, which are crucial for smart devices [4][16] - Wireless communication technologies are expanding, with increasing demand for low-power IoT connection chips in various applications [4][16] - The integration of AI in consumer electronics is enhancing user experience, with products like smart glasses and smart speakers becoming key platforms for AI technology [4][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the demand for PHUD (Projection Head-Up Display) for LTPS LCD panels is expected to grow significantly, reaching approximately 600,000 units by 2025 and potentially increasing to 2.5 million units by 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of about 316% [2] - The explosive growth in demand is driven by leading automotive brands such as BMW and Xiaomi, with more brands likely to follow suit, indicating a penetration path of "luxury brands leading + independent car manufacturers following" [2] - By 2030, the demand for PHUD in LTPS LCD panels is projected to reach 7.8 million units, highlighting the long-term growth potential in this segment [2] Group 2 - The demand for HUD (including PHUD) LTPS LCD panels is expected to accelerate, with shipments projected at approximately 8.5 million units in 2024, exceeding 10 million units in 2025, and potentially reaching over 25 million units by 2030 [3] - Traditional HUD panels are primarily smaller in size, but the introduction of PHUD will significantly increase the size requirements, leading to a more pronounced consumption of LTPS LCD panel capacity [3] - By 2025, the demand for HUD LTPS LCD panels is estimated to require about 17,000 G6 glass substrates, with PHUD contributing 5,000 units, accounting for 29% of the HUD panel demand [3] Group 3 - The rise of PHUD and HUD technologies is expected to pose a threat to the traditional full LCD instrument market, creating new opportunities and challenges in the competition between HUD panels and instrument markets [4] - Increased demand for higher brightness will drive the adoption of Mini LED backlight products in the automotive market, while the need for high brightness and high transmittance will explore the potential of Micro LED technology, further promoting the application of new display technologies in the automotive sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global smartphone panel shipment is expected to grow by 11.4% in 2024, reaching 2.157 billion units, driven by the increase in new smartphone sales and demand for second-hand and refurbished devices. However, a decline of 3.2% is anticipated in 2025, with shipments expected to drop to 2.093 billion units due to stabilizing new device demand and a slight decrease in the second-hand market [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - BOE (京东方) remains the leading global smartphone panel supplier, with shipments projected at 613 million units in 2024 and expected to reach 630 million units in 2025, reflecting a growth of 2.7% [2]. - Samsung Display (三星显示) is forecasted to ship 378 million units in 2024, benefiting from Apple's demand for high-end AMOLED panels. However, shipments are expected to decline to 365 million units in 2025, a decrease of 3.5% due to potential changes in Apple's supplier strategy [3]. - HKC (惠科) is projected to ship 228 million units in 2024, with a slight increase to 230 million units in 2025, growing at a rate of 0.7% [4]. - CSOT (华星光电) is expected to see significant growth, with shipments reaching 215 million units in 2024, marking an 83.2% increase, and a slight rise to 223 million units in 2025 [5]. - Tianma (天马) is anticipated to ship 158 million units in 2024, with a potential 10% increase in 2025, despite facing challenges from declining LTPS LCD demand [6]. Group 2: Market Trends - The demand for AMOLED panels remains strong among smartphone brands, contributing to the overall increase in panel shipments, a trend expected to continue into 2025. However, the demand for LTPS LCD panels used in mid-range smartphones is weakening, posing challenges for suppliers focused on this technology [6]. - The market share of Taiwanese panel manufacturers is gradually shrinking due to the rapid growth of HKC and CSOT. In contrast, Japanese panel manufacturers are exiting the smartphone market, leading to a decline in their market share [6]. - Korean panel manufacturers maintain a competitive edge in the high-end smartphone market, with a market share of approximately 20% to 21% in 2024, while Chinese manufacturers are rapidly expanding their market share, projected to reach 69.8% in 2024 and potentially exceed 70% in 2025 [6].