格隆汇11月17日｜据21财经，近日，默沙东与Cidara Therapeutics共同宣布，双方已签署最终协议，根 据该协议，默沙东将以约92亿美元的总额收购Cidara。这一消息发布后，位于圣地亚哥的生物技术公司 Cidara的股价应声飙升超105%，创下2017年以来的最高水平。而这笔交易的核心筹码是Cidara的核心候 选药物CD388，这是一种基于创新Drug-Fc Conjugate（DFC）技术平台的长效抗病毒药物，用于流感预 防。根据公开信息，在传统流感疫苗平均预防效力仅为40%左右的背景下，CD388在2b期临床试验中最 高剂量展现出76%的预防效力，且单次用药可提供长达4～5个月的保护。"若CD388成功获批上市，其 展现出的76%预防效力远高于传统疫苗，有望打开百亿美元级市场。结合默沙东成熟的商业化网络与全 球渠道，协同效应下净现值（NPV）或远超收购成本。默沙东近年持续加码传染病领域布局（如新冠药 物Lagevrio、HPV疫苗Gardasil等），此次收购其希望通过引入Cidara的专有Cloudbreak平台技术，进一 步强化在'免疫激活型抗感染药物'领域的管线厚度，为中长期增长储 ...

Core Insights - Merck (MSD) has acquired Cidara Therapeutics for approximately $9.2 billion, primarily for its innovative flu drug CD388, which has shown a prevention efficacy of up to 76% in Phase 2 clinical trials [1][2][3] - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to mitigate the impending patent cliff of Merck's leading cancer drug Keytruda, which is expected to lose patent protection by 2028, potentially resulting in a revenue loss of around $18 billion [4][9] - The market reacted positively to the acquisition, with Cidara's stock surging over 105% following the announcement, reflecting strong investor confidence in the potential of CD388 and Merck's long-term value [3][4] Company Strategy - Merck aims to strengthen its pipeline in the infectious disease sector, leveraging Cidara's proprietary Cloudbreak platform technology to enhance its portfolio of immune-activating anti-infection drugs [2][9] - The acquisition price of $221.50 per share indicates Merck's high regard for Cidara's core asset CD388 and its urgent need for new growth drivers amid stagnant performance [2][3] - Merck's recent financial performance shows total revenue of $48.611 billion for the first three quarters, with pharmaceutical revenue at $43.299 billion, highlighting the need for new products to sustain growth [3][4] Market Potential - If CD388 receives regulatory approval, it could tap into a market worth over $10 billion, given its superior efficacy compared to traditional vaccines [2][6] - The global flu vaccine market is projected to grow from $5.8 billion in 2020 to $8.9 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.2%, indicating a robust demand for flu prevention products [7] - CD388's unique mechanism of action could address significant gaps in the current flu prevention market, particularly for populations that are vaccine-averse or have inadequate responses to vaccines [8][9] Innovation and Future Outlook - The CD388 drug represents a shift from traditional vaccines to innovative preventive therapies, potentially revolutionizing flu prevention and opening avenues for treatments against other viral diseases [9][10] - The FDA has granted CD388 breakthrough therapy designation and fast track status, which could expedite its path to market if Phase 3 trials are successful [6] - The global flu treatment market is expanding steadily, and innovative therapies like CD388 are expected to create high-growth opportunities within this space [10]

Core Insights - Merck reported revenue of $17.28 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a 3.7% increase year-over-year and a surprise of +1.24% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.06 billion [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $2.58, compared to $1.57 in the same quarter last year, resulting in a surprise of +9.32% over the consensus estimate of $2.36 [1] Financial Performance - Hospital Acute Care sales for Bridion in the U.S. reached $392 million, exceeding the estimated $379.07 million, marking a +15.6% change year-over-year [4] - Oncology sales for Keytruda internationally were $3.26 billion, slightly below the estimated $3.33 billion, with a year-over-year increase of +11.4% [4] - Sales for Diabetes drug Janumet in the U.S. were $78 million, significantly surpassing the estimated $42.82 million, representing a +420% change year-over-year [4] - Alliance revenue for Lynparza in the U.S. was $184 million, exceeding the estimated $156.52 million, with a +14.3% year-over-year change [4] - Animal health sales totaled $1.62 billion, above the estimated $1.56 billion, reflecting an +8.6% change year-over-year [4] - Cardiovascular sales for Winrevair were $360 million, below the estimated $426.29 million [4] - Oncology sales for Keytruda were $8.14 billion, slightly below the estimated $8.4 billion, with a +9.6% year-over-year change [4] - Sales for Virology drug Lagevrio were $138 million, below the estimated $144.08 million, representing a -64% year-over-year change [4] - Sales for Gardasil vaccines were $1.75 billion, matching the average estimate, but reflecting a -24.2% year-over-year change [4] - Alliance revenue for Lenvima was $258 million, exceeding the estimated $242.44 million, with a +2.8% year-over-year change [4] Stock Performance - Merck's shares have returned -3.9% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Merck (MRK) reported Q2 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.13, exceeding estimates, but a 7% decline year-over-year on a reported basis due to a $200 million upfront payment for a license agreement with Hengrui Pharma [2][9][17] - Revenues decreased 2% year-over-year to $15.81 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [3][9] Sales Performance of Oncology Drugs - Keytruda sales reached $7.96 billion, a 9% increase, driven by strong uptake in various cancer indications, surpassing estimates [4][9] - Alliance revenues from Lynparza and Lenvima contributed positively, with Lynparza sales up 15% to $370 million and Lenvima revenues totaling $265 million, up 5% [5] Sales Performance of Other Key Products - HPV vaccine sales (Gardasil and Gardasil 9) fell 55% to $1.13 billion due to reduced demand in China, missing estimates [7] - Sales of other vaccines showed mixed results, with Vaxneuvance increasing 20% to $229 million, while Rotateq and Pneumovax 23 saw significant declines [8][10] Animal Health Segment - The Animal Health segment generated $1.65 billion in revenues, an 11% increase year-over-year, driven by higher demand and the inclusion of Elanco aqua business sales [12] Cost and Margin Discussion - Adjusted gross margin improved to 82.2%, up 130 basis points year-over-year, attributed to a favorable product mix [13] - Adjusted R&D spending rose 15% to $3.99 billion, influenced by the upfront payment to Hengrui Pharma and increased compensation costs [14] 2025 Guidance - Merck narrowed its 2025 revenue guidance to $64.3-$65.3 billion, reflecting a less negative currency impact [15] - Adjusted EPS guidance is now between $8.87 and $8.97, accounting for a revised negative impact from foreign exchange [16] Acquisition Plans - Merck announced plans to acquire Verona Pharma for approximately $10 billion, expected to close in Q4 2025, which will enhance its portfolio in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [19]

Core Insights - Merck reported $15.81 billion in revenue for Q2 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.9% and an EPS of $2.13, down from $2.28 a year ago, with a slight revenue surprise of -0.02% against estimates [1] - The consensus EPS estimate was $2.01, resulting in an EPS surprise of +5.97% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Merck's stock has returned +6.2% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.6% [3] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3] Sales Performance by Product - Keytruda (Oncology) U.S. sales reached $4.75 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $4.67 billion, with a year-over-year increase of +7.6% [4] - Keytruda (Oncology) International sales were $3.21 billion, surpassing the $3.16 billion estimate, marking a +12.2% year-over-year change [4] - Janumet (Diabetes) U.S. sales were $68 million, significantly above the $45.63 million estimate, reflecting a +300% year-over-year increase [4] - Lynparza (Oncology) U.S. alliance revenue was $174 million, exceeding the $140.82 million estimate, with a +13.7% year-over-year change [4] - Lynparza (Oncology) international alliance revenue reached $370 million, surpassing the $321.44 million estimate, representing a +16.7% year-over-year increase [4] - Winrevair (Cardiovascular) sales were $336 million, slightly below the $343.79 million estimate [4] - Lenvima (Oncology) alliance revenue was $265 million, exceeding the $244.01 million estimate, with a +6.4% year-over-year change [4] - Keytruda (Oncology) total sales were $7.96 billion, slightly above the $7.9 billion estimate, reflecting a +9.4% year-over-year change [4] - Animal health sales reached $1.65 billion, exceeding the $1.55 billion estimate, with an +11.1% year-over-year increase [4] - Gardasil (Vaccines) sales were $1.13 billion, below the $1.3 billion estimate, showing a -54.6% year-over-year decline [4] - Welireg (Oncology) sales were $162 million, exceeding the $154.16 million estimate [4] - Lagevrio (Virology) sales were $83 million, surpassing the $55.63 million estimate, but reflecting a -24.6% year-over-year decline [4]

Core Insights - Merck reported Q1 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.22, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.15, with a year-over-year earnings increase of 7% on a reported basis and 12% excluding foreign exchange impacts [1][2] - Revenues declined 2% year-over-year to $15.53 billion, but still surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.39 billion [2] Sales Performance - Keytruda, Merck's flagship product, generated sales of $7.21 billion, a 6% increase, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.55 billion due to timing issues in wholesaler purchases [3] - Alliance revenues from Lynparza and Lenvima contributed positively, with Lynparza sales increasing 8% to $312 million and Lenvima revenues totaling $258 million, up 2% [4] - Welireg sales surged 63% to $137 million, driven by higher demand in the U.S. [5] Vaccine Sales - Sales of HPV vaccines Gardasil and Gardasil 9 fell 40% to $1.33 billion, primarily due to lower demand in China [6] - Combined sales of Proquad, M-M-R II, and Varivax vaccines decreased 5% to $539 million, while sales of the pneumococcal 15-valent conjugate vaccine Vaxneuvance rose 7% to $230 million [7][8] Diabetes and Other Products - Sales of the Januvia/Janumet franchise rose 21% year-over-year to $796 million, benefiting from higher net pricing in the U.S. [9] - New PAH drug Winrevair generated $280 million in sales, up from $200 million in the previous quarter [9] Animal Health Segment - The Animal Health segment generated revenues of $1.59 billion, up 5% year-over-year, driven by higher demand for livestock products [11] Cost and Margin Analysis - Adjusted gross margin was 82.2%, up 100 basis points year-over-year, while adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses rose 3% to $2.53 billion [12] - Adjusted R&D spending decreased 9% to $3.61 billion, attributed to lower business development charges [13] 2025 Guidance - Merck maintained its sales guidance for 2025, expecting revenues between $64.1 billion and $65.6 billion, with a revised negative impact from foreign exchange of around 1% [14] - Adjusted EPS guidance was revised to a range of $8.82 to $8.97, accounting for a one-time charge related to a licensing agreement [16] Market Reaction and Future Outlook - Shares of Merck traded higher in pre-market following the earnings report, despite a 21% year-to-date decline compared to a 3% fall in the industry [19] - The company is aware of its reliance on Keytruda and is taking steps to diversify its portfolio, with a late-stage pipeline that has nearly tripled over the past three years [21]