Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) is included among the 16 Best Dividend Stocks with Rising Payouts. Deutsche Bank Upgrades Merck (MRK) to Buy, Sees “Clear Path” Beyond Keytruda Patent Cliff On February 13, Deutsche Bank analyst James Shin upgraded Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) to Buy from Hold. The analyst raised his price target on the stock to $150 from $115. In a research note, he said the market appears to be undervaluing the company because of concerns around Keytruda’s upcoming patent expiration. His an ...

Key Takeaways Bristol Myers emerges as the stronger near-term pick over Merck.BMY's new drugs, label expansions and $2B cost-savings plan support 2026 margins.MRK faces Gardasil weakness, Keytruda exclusivity loss and a $2.5B generic headwind.Merck & Co. (MRK) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) are major global drugmakers with expansive, diversified portfolios.Merck stands out for its leadership in oncology, complemented by strong positions in infectious diseases and vaccines.Bristol Myers, meanwhile, concentra ...

Core Viewpoint - Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) has received a price target increase from Scotiabank, reflecting strong execution despite a cautious outlook for 2026 due to potential revenue pressures from product exclusivity losses [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Merck reported a strong fourth quarter, exceeding revenue and earnings expectations, primarily driven by demand for its cancer immunotherapy Keytruda [4]. - The company anticipates 2026 revenue to be between $65.5 billion and $67.0 billion, which is below the consensus estimate of $67.6 billion [4]. - Merck expects approximately $2.5 billion in revenue pressure this year due to factors such as increased generic competition, Medicare price negotiations, and declining sales of its COVID-19 treatment, Lagevrio [4]. Group 2: Product Outlook - Management indicated that several drugs, including Januvia and related therapies, may underperform expectations, impacting near-term results [5]. - The company is focusing on longer-term growth drivers across its broader portfolio, despite short-term challenges [5]. Group 3: Company Overview - Merck & Co., Inc. is a global healthcare company that specializes in prescription medicines, including biologic therapies, vaccines, and animal health products, with a strong emphasis on human health drugs and vaccines [6].

Core Insights - Merck reported $16.4 billion in revenue for Q4 2025, a 5% year-over-year increase, with an EPS of $2.04 compared to $1.72 a year ago, exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates for both revenue and EPS [1] Financial Performance - Revenue surprise was +1.33% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.19 billion, while the EPS surprise was +0.62% over the consensus estimate of $2.03 [1] - Merck's shares returned +5.5% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.8% change [3] Key Product Sales - Hospital Acute Care (Bridion) in the U.S. generated $451 million, exceeding the estimated $418.39 million, reflecting an 18.1% year-over-year increase [4] - Oncology (Keytruda) international sales reached $3.45 billion, surpassing the $3.39 billion estimate, with a 15% year-over-year increase [4] - Diabetes (Janumet) in the U.S. reported $57 million, below the estimated $69.57 million, marking a significant decline of 37.4% year-over-year [4] - Oncology (Lynparza) alliance revenue in the U.S. was $180 million, slightly above the $176.62 million estimate, with a 1.7% year-over-year increase [4] - Cardiovascular (Winrevair) sales were $467 million, exceeding the estimated $452.86 million [4] - Vaccines (Vaxneuvance) generated $140 million, below the $178.52 million estimate, reflecting a 13% year-over-year decline [4] - Oncology (Welireg) sales reached $220 million, surpassing the $195.53 million estimate [4] - Oncology (Keytruda) domestic sales were $8.34 billion, slightly above the $8.31 billion estimate, with a 6.4% year-over-year increase [4] - Oncology (Lenvima) alliance revenue was $272 million, exceeding the $243.71 million estimate, with a 6.7% year-over-year increase [4] - Vaccines (Gardasil) reported $1.03 billion, close to the $1.04 billion estimate, but down 33.5% year-over-year [4] - Virology (Lagevrio) sales were $57 million, above the $45.95 million estimate, but down 52.9% year-over-year [4] - Oncology (Reblozyl) alliance revenue was $164 million, exceeding the $138.97 million estimate, with a significant 49.1% year-over-year increase [4]

Core Viewpoint - Merck has signed a final agreement to acquire Cidara Therapeutics for approximately $9.2 billion, significantly boosting Cidara's stock price by over 105% to its highest level since 2017, driven by the potential of Cidara's lead candidate drug CD388, which shows promising efficacy in flu prevention [1] Group 1 - The acquisition price of approximately $9.2 billion highlights Merck's commitment to expanding its portfolio in the infectious disease sector [1] - Cidara's CD388, based on the innovative Drug-Fc Conjugate (DFC) technology platform, demonstrated a 76% efficacy rate in phase 2 clinical trials, significantly higher than the average 40% efficacy of traditional flu vaccines [1] - If approved, CD388 could tap into a market potential exceeding $10 billion, leveraging Merck's established commercialization network and global channels to enhance its net present value (NPV) beyond the acquisition cost [1] Group 2 - Merck has been increasingly focused on the infectious disease space, with recent investments in COVID-19 treatments like Lagevrio and HPV vaccines such as Gardasil [1] - The acquisition aims to integrate Cidara's proprietary Cloudbreak platform technology, enhancing Merck's pipeline in the 'immune-activating anti-infective drugs' sector for long-term growth [1] - Analysts suggest that this strategic move will bolster Merck's capabilities in developing innovative treatments for infectious diseases [1]

Core Insights - Merck (MSD) has acquired Cidara Therapeutics for approximately $9.2 billion, primarily for its innovative flu drug CD388, which has shown a prevention efficacy of up to 76% in Phase 2 clinical trials [1][2][3] - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to mitigate the impending patent cliff of Merck's leading cancer drug Keytruda, which is expected to lose patent protection by 2028, potentially resulting in a revenue loss of around $18 billion [4][9] - The market reacted positively to the acquisition, with Cidara's stock surging over 105% following the announcement, reflecting strong investor confidence in the potential of CD388 and Merck's long-term value [3][4] Company Strategy - Merck aims to strengthen its pipeline in the infectious disease sector, leveraging Cidara's proprietary Cloudbreak platform technology to enhance its portfolio of immune-activating anti-infection drugs [2][9] - The acquisition price of $221.50 per share indicates Merck's high regard for Cidara's core asset CD388 and its urgent need for new growth drivers amid stagnant performance [2][3] - Merck's recent financial performance shows total revenue of $48.611 billion for the first three quarters, with pharmaceutical revenue at $43.299 billion, highlighting the need for new products to sustain growth [3][4] Market Potential - If CD388 receives regulatory approval, it could tap into a market worth over $10 billion, given its superior efficacy compared to traditional vaccines [2][6] - The global flu vaccine market is projected to grow from $5.8 billion in 2020 to $8.9 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.2%, indicating a robust demand for flu prevention products [7] - CD388's unique mechanism of action could address significant gaps in the current flu prevention market, particularly for populations that are vaccine-averse or have inadequate responses to vaccines [8][9] Innovation and Future Outlook - The CD388 drug represents a shift from traditional vaccines to innovative preventive therapies, potentially revolutionizing flu prevention and opening avenues for treatments against other viral diseases [9][10] - The FDA has granted CD388 breakthrough therapy designation and fast track status, which could expedite its path to market if Phase 3 trials are successful [6] - The global flu treatment market is expanding steadily, and innovative therapies like CD388 are expected to create high-growth opportunities within this space [10]

Core Insights - Merck reported revenue of $17.28 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a 3.7% increase year-over-year and a surprise of +1.24% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.06 billion [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $2.58, compared to $1.57 in the same quarter last year, resulting in a surprise of +9.32% over the consensus estimate of $2.36 [1] Financial Performance - Hospital Acute Care sales for Bridion in the U.S. reached $392 million, exceeding the estimated $379.07 million, marking a +15.6% change year-over-year [4] - Oncology sales for Keytruda internationally were $3.26 billion, slightly below the estimated $3.33 billion, with a year-over-year increase of +11.4% [4] - Sales for Diabetes drug Janumet in the U.S. were $78 million, significantly surpassing the estimated $42.82 million, representing a +420% change year-over-year [4] - Alliance revenue for Lynparza in the U.S. was $184 million, exceeding the estimated $156.52 million, with a +14.3% year-over-year change [4] - Animal health sales totaled $1.62 billion, above the estimated $1.56 billion, reflecting an +8.6% change year-over-year [4] - Cardiovascular sales for Winrevair were $360 million, below the estimated $426.29 million [4] - Oncology sales for Keytruda were $8.14 billion, slightly below the estimated $8.4 billion, with a +9.6% year-over-year change [4] - Sales for Virology drug Lagevrio were $138 million, below the estimated $144.08 million, representing a -64% year-over-year change [4] - Sales for Gardasil vaccines were $1.75 billion, matching the average estimate, but reflecting a -24.2% year-over-year change [4] - Alliance revenue for Lenvima was $258 million, exceeding the estimated $242.44 million, with a +2.8% year-over-year change [4] Stock Performance - Merck's shares have returned -3.9% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Merck (MRK) reported Q2 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.13, exceeding estimates, but a 7% decline year-over-year on a reported basis due to a $200 million upfront payment for a license agreement with Hengrui Pharma [2][9][17] - Revenues decreased 2% year-over-year to $15.81 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [3][9] Sales Performance of Oncology Drugs - Keytruda sales reached $7.96 billion, a 9% increase, driven by strong uptake in various cancer indications, surpassing estimates [4][9] - Alliance revenues from Lynparza and Lenvima contributed positively, with Lynparza sales up 15% to $370 million and Lenvima revenues totaling $265 million, up 5% [5] Sales Performance of Other Key Products - HPV vaccine sales (Gardasil and Gardasil 9) fell 55% to $1.13 billion due to reduced demand in China, missing estimates [7] - Sales of other vaccines showed mixed results, with Vaxneuvance increasing 20% to $229 million, while Rotateq and Pneumovax 23 saw significant declines [8][10] Animal Health Segment - The Animal Health segment generated $1.65 billion in revenues, an 11% increase year-over-year, driven by higher demand and the inclusion of Elanco aqua business sales [12] Cost and Margin Discussion - Adjusted gross margin improved to 82.2%, up 130 basis points year-over-year, attributed to a favorable product mix [13] - Adjusted R&D spending rose 15% to $3.99 billion, influenced by the upfront payment to Hengrui Pharma and increased compensation costs [14] 2025 Guidance - Merck narrowed its 2025 revenue guidance to $64.3-$65.3 billion, reflecting a less negative currency impact [15] - Adjusted EPS guidance is now between $8.87 and $8.97, accounting for a revised negative impact from foreign exchange [16] Acquisition Plans - Merck announced plans to acquire Verona Pharma for approximately $10 billion, expected to close in Q4 2025, which will enhance its portfolio in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [19]

Core Insights - Merck reported $15.81 billion in revenue for Q2 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.9% and an EPS of $2.13, down from $2.28 a year ago, with a slight revenue surprise of -0.02% against estimates [1] - The consensus EPS estimate was $2.01, resulting in an EPS surprise of +5.97% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Merck's stock has returned +6.2% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.6% [3] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3] Sales Performance by Product - Keytruda (Oncology) U.S. sales reached $4.75 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $4.67 billion, with a year-over-year increase of +7.6% [4] - Keytruda (Oncology) International sales were $3.21 billion, surpassing the $3.16 billion estimate, marking a +12.2% year-over-year change [4] - Janumet (Diabetes) U.S. sales were $68 million, significantly above the $45.63 million estimate, reflecting a +300% year-over-year increase [4] - Lynparza (Oncology) U.S. alliance revenue was $174 million, exceeding the $140.82 million estimate, with a +13.7% year-over-year change [4] - Lynparza (Oncology) international alliance revenue reached $370 million, surpassing the $321.44 million estimate, representing a +16.7% year-over-year increase [4] - Winrevair (Cardiovascular) sales were $336 million, slightly below the $343.79 million estimate [4] - Lenvima (Oncology) alliance revenue was $265 million, exceeding the $244.01 million estimate, with a +6.4% year-over-year change [4] - Keytruda (Oncology) total sales were $7.96 billion, slightly above the $7.9 billion estimate, reflecting a +9.4% year-over-year change [4] - Animal health sales reached $1.65 billion, exceeding the $1.55 billion estimate, with an +11.1% year-over-year increase [4] - Gardasil (Vaccines) sales were $1.13 billion, below the $1.3 billion estimate, showing a -54.6% year-over-year decline [4] - Welireg (Oncology) sales were $162 million, exceeding the $154.16 million estimate [4] - Lagevrio (Virology) sales were $83 million, surpassing the $55.63 million estimate, but reflecting a -24.6% year-over-year decline [4]

Core Insights - Merck reported Q1 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.22, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.15, with a year-over-year earnings increase of 7% on a reported basis and 12% excluding foreign exchange impacts [1][2] - Revenues declined 2% year-over-year to $15.53 billion, but still surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.39 billion [2] Sales Performance - Keytruda, Merck's flagship product, generated sales of $7.21 billion, a 6% increase, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.55 billion due to timing issues in wholesaler purchases [3] - Alliance revenues from Lynparza and Lenvima contributed positively, with Lynparza sales increasing 8% to $312 million and Lenvima revenues totaling $258 million, up 2% [4] - Welireg sales surged 63% to $137 million, driven by higher demand in the U.S. [5] Vaccine Sales - Sales of HPV vaccines Gardasil and Gardasil 9 fell 40% to $1.33 billion, primarily due to lower demand in China [6] - Combined sales of Proquad, M-M-R II, and Varivax vaccines decreased 5% to $539 million, while sales of the pneumococcal 15-valent conjugate vaccine Vaxneuvance rose 7% to $230 million [7][8] Diabetes and Other Products - Sales of the Januvia/Janumet franchise rose 21% year-over-year to $796 million, benefiting from higher net pricing in the U.S. [9] - New PAH drug Winrevair generated $280 million in sales, up from $200 million in the previous quarter [9] Animal Health Segment - The Animal Health segment generated revenues of $1.59 billion, up 5% year-over-year, driven by higher demand for livestock products [11] Cost and Margin Analysis - Adjusted gross margin was 82.2%, up 100 basis points year-over-year, while adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses rose 3% to $2.53 billion [12] - Adjusted R&D spending decreased 9% to $3.61 billion, attributed to lower business development charges [13] 2025 Guidance - Merck maintained its sales guidance for 2025, expecting revenues between $64.1 billion and $65.6 billion, with a revised negative impact from foreign exchange of around 1% [14] - Adjusted EPS guidance was revised to a range of $8.82 to $8.97, accounting for a one-time charge related to a licensing agreement [16] Market Reaction and Future Outlook - Shares of Merck traded higher in pre-market following the earnings report, despite a 21% year-to-date decline compared to a 3% fall in the industry [19] - The company is aware of its reliance on Keytruda and is taking steps to diversify its portfolio, with a late-stage pipeline that has nearly tripled over the past three years [21]