Core Insights - The LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index for January 2026 indicates an overall recovery in merchant confidence at the start of the new year, reflecting a stable market opening despite significant behavioral divergence among merchants regarding inventory, recruitment strategies, and category selection [1][2]. Group 1: Confidence Index - The total merchant confidence index for January 2026 is 116, representing a 5% month-on-month increase; the current index is 93, up 7%; and the expected index is 139, which has increased by 2% [2][4]. - All three main indices show an upward trend, indicating a robust recovery in the cross-border market and stable seller confidence [2]. Group 2: Decision Divergence - In terms of recruitment, 80% of merchants are either pausing or slightly increasing hiring, reflecting a conservative outlook and a focus on maintaining current team sizes to avoid risks associated with blind expansion [5]. - Only 13% of merchants are actively expanding their workforce, indicating that genuine expansion motivation remains limited and is often tied to structural opportunities [5]. - For inventory decisions, 61% of merchants are increasing stock levels, suggesting a positive short-term demand outlook, while 23% are keeping inventory levels stable, and only 16% are reducing stock [6]. Group 3: Category Confidence Index - The confidence index for the Home & Garden category reached 115, a 13% increase, driven by sustained demand in the outdoor furniture and smart home appliance markets [9]. - The Fashion & Apparel category saw its confidence index rise to 111, a 3% increase, supported by fast fashion brands leveraging agile supply chains and social media marketing [9]. - The Electronics & Gadgets category's confidence index is 122, with a slight 1% increase, primarily fueled by innovations in AIoT devices and 3C accessories [9]. Group 4: Sales Growth Trends - 30.27% of merchants reported a sales growth of 5%-10%, a decrease of 4.75% month-on-month, indicating a contraction trend among mid-to-low growth merchants [10]. - 18.07% of merchants experienced negative growth, an increase of 4.50%, suggesting some merchants face post-peak pressure due to supply chain delays or inventory management issues [10]. - Conversely, 8.40% of merchants reported a growth of 15%-20%, an increase of 1.31%, indicating that a small segment of merchants with strong operational resilience continues to thrive [10].

Core Insights - The 2025 AI Financial Innovation Development Forum highlighted the theme "Intelligent Driving Future: AI Reshaping Financial New Ecology" and announced the "Treasury Brand Plan" list, recognizing institutions and companies that excelled in AI financial innovation [1] Company Highlights - LianLian Digital was awarded the "Annual AI Financial Innovation Application Leading Institution" for its outstanding performance in AI technology application and empowerment [1] - LianLian International, a cross-border payment brand under LianLian Digital, officially announced the launch of its intelligent analysis infrastructure, the LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index [1] Product Development - The LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index was launched in January 2025 and has been published continuously for 12 months, operating on a cloud-native, big data, and AI deeply integrated intelligent platform [1] - The index aims to provide important reference indicators reflecting seller business expectations and industry confidence, systematically quantifying changes in the cross-border e-commerce environment [1] Future Outlook - LianLian, as a digital technology company with over ten years of experience in cross-border trade, will continue to focus on technological innovation as its core driving force [1] - The company aims to collaborate with global partners to create differentiated and competitive intelligent infrastructure, promoting the cross-border industry into a more intelligent and efficient new era, and opening a new chapter in global business growth [1]

Core Insights - The LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index for 2025 indicates that while cross-border sellers face cost and competitive pressures, they maintain investment and confidence in future operations [1][3] Group 1: Index Overview - The LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index consists of a total index, a current index, and a future expectations index, with values above 100 indicating optimism, 100 indicating neutrality, and below 100 indicating pessimism [1] - In 2025, the total index remained stable between 105 and 119, while the current index fluctuated between 84 and 93, indicating a cautious attitude and operational pressure among sellers [3] - The future expectations index consistently ranged from 125 to 148, reflecting strong long-term confidence among sellers regarding future sales performance and industry recovery [3] Group 2: Market Trends - The divergence between the current index and the future expectations index reveals a key trend: despite facing challenges such as high costs and increased competition, sellers remain optimistic about future sales and industry recovery [3] - Different product categories exhibit significant structural differentiation due to product characteristics, target markets, policy sensitivity, and supply chain complexity, which has been amplified by macroeconomic uncertainties in 2025 [3] Group 3: Category-Specific Insights - The health and beauty and automotive sectors maintained confidence levels above the total index for most of the year, indicating strong resilience [4] - The health and beauty sector benefits from global consumer demand and premiumization trends, while the automotive sector relies on DIY demand and strong cost pass-through capabilities [4] - Categories such as consumer electronics, home and garden, and fashion exhibit notable fluctuations in confidence, closely tied to promotional events, tariff policies, and inventory cycles [4] - Sellers are advised to focus on structural opportunities, such as shifting towards resilient categories like health and beauty, and to strategically navigate the volatility in categories like consumer electronics and fashion [4]

Core Insights - The LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index for 2025 indicates that cross-border sellers are facing cost and competitive pressures while maintaining confidence in future operations [1][2] - The index, launched in January 2025, aims to provide valuable insights and decision support for the industry through monthly surveys tracking seller performance and expectations [1] Index Structure - The index consists of three components: the total index, the expectation index, and the current index. The current index reflects sellers' views on the present situation, while the expectation index reflects their outlook for the next three months [1] - A total index value above 100 indicates optimism, equal to 100 indicates neutrality, and below 100 indicates pessimism [1] Annual Review Findings - In 2025, the total index remained stable in a high range of 105 to 119, while the current index fluctuated between 84 and 93, indicating a cautious attitude and operational pressure among sellers [1] - The expectation index consistently operated in an optimistic range of 125 to 148, showing sellers' long-term confidence in future development [1] Industry Outlook - Despite facing challenges such as increased competition, cross-border merchants maintain a strong optimistic outlook for future sales performance and industry recovery [2] - LianLian International aims to leverage its resources to provide a referenceable "thermometer" and "barometer" for the industry, continuously optimizing the LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index to offer valuable forward-looking insights [2]

Core Insights - LianLian International has officially announced the launch of the LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index, aimed at providing a quantitative measure of seller expectations and industry confidence in the cross-border e-commerce sector [1] Group 1: Index Overview - The LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index has been published monthly since its introduction in January 2025, assessing the current state and future expectations of the cross-border e-commerce industry across seven dimensions [1] - The index is designed to reflect seller performance expectations and industry confidence, providing a systematic way to track changes in the cross-border e-commerce environment [1] Group 2: Technological Infrastructure - The index operates on a cloud-native, big data, and AI-integrated intelligent platform, which includes a globally distributed infrastructure for real-time data collection and analysis [2] - This platform addresses the challenges of capturing critical market signals without being hindered by geographical or temporal barriers, ensuring comprehensive and timely insights [2] - The big data layer organizes vast amounts of heterogeneous data into structured assets, enabling effective analysis and understanding [2] Group 3: Practical Applications - Merchants have described the index as a "digital advisor," aiding in inventory planning, marketing strategy formulation, and risk assessment in new markets [4] - LianLian International emphasizes that the confidence index is not a final product but a mature application of their technology, with plans to develop a comprehensive intelligent infrastructure to reduce uncertainty for cross-border merchants [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - According to the World Trade Organization's 2025 World Trade Report, AI applications could drive global trade growth by nearly 40% by 2040 with appropriate policy support [4] - The cross-border industry is expected to face significant changes in trade policies, rules, and consumer habits as it approaches 2026, highlighting the need for technology-driven insights [4] - LianLian International aims to leverage advanced digital infrastructure to identify key signals that can change the competitive landscape, focusing on technological innovation as a core driver [4][5]

Core Insights - The LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index for 2025 indicates that cross-border sellers are facing cost and competitive pressures while maintaining confidence and investment in future operations [1][3] Group 1: Index Overview - The LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index consists of a total index, a current index, and a future expectations index, with values above 100 indicating optimism, equal to 100 indicating neutrality, and below 100 indicating pessimism [1] - In 2025, the total index remained stable between 105 and 119, while the current index fluctuated between 84 and 93, indicating a cautious attitude among sellers regarding the current operating environment [3] Group 2: Divergence in Seller Sentiment - The divergence between the current index and the future expectations index reveals a trend where sellers, despite facing challenges such as high costs and increased competition, maintain strong optimism about future sales performance and industry recovery [3] - This "current pressure, future potential" sentiment characterizes the unique confidence landscape in the cross-border trade sector for 2025 [3] Group 3: Category-Specific Insights - Different product categories exhibit significant structural divergence due to variations in product characteristics, target markets, policy sensitivity, and supply chain complexity [4] - Categories like Health & Beauty and Automotive & Industrial showed higher confidence levels than the total index, benefiting from global consumer demand and strong cost transfer capabilities [4] - Conversely, categories such as Consumer Electronics, Home & Garden, and Fashion & Apparel experienced notable fluctuations in confidence, influenced by promotional cycles, tariff policies, and inventory cycles [5] Group 4: Recommendations for Sellers - Sellers are advised to shift focus from "universal growth" to exploring "structural opportunities," particularly in resilient categories like Health & Beauty, while being strategic in volatile categories like Consumer Electronics and Fashion [5] - For categories sensitive to tariffs and compliance regulations, such as Toys and Pet Supplies, sellers should proactively address compliance requirements to establish "compliance barriers" [5] Group 5: Market Context and Future Outlook - In 2025, China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached 2.75 trillion yuan, a 69.7% increase from 2020, highlighting the sector's resilience and its role as a key driver of foreign trade growth [6] - The evolving international trade environment, intense platform competition, and changing policies create a new normal of uncertainty for cross-border merchants [6] - The LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index serves as a valuable data reference and strategic guide for sellers and industry participants, filling a gap in the quantitative confidence index for the domestic cross-border e-commerce sector [6]