在过去两年的美股市场里，Applovin堪称AI应用的顶流。 这家公司凭借AI广告的业务定位，在一年内股价曾飙升超过700%，市值一度突破2000亿美元大关，成为纳斯达克乃至标普500指数中AI应用端的绝对领军 者。 业绩更是展示了令人咋舌的盈利能力，2025第三季度营收同比增长68%，调整后EBITDA利润率达到了令同业难以企及的82%。 如此强势的增长，似乎印证了华尔街对其"AI应用之王"的赞誉。 然而，就在市场情绪最为高涨的时刻，一份来自做空机构CapitalWatch的重磅报告，一下把市场热情给打下来了。2026年初，Applovin的股价遭遇了剧烈 震荡，从745美元的高点迅速回调至520美元左右。 01 深渊凝视 近期，CapitalWatch发布了题为《东南亚洗钱集团的纳斯达克"洗衣机"》的调查报告，瞬间击碎了Applovin的完美滤镜。 这份报告并没有纠结于常见的估值泡沫或技术细节，而是直接抛出了一个逆天的指控：Applovin并非单纯的商业奇迹，而是一个庞大跨国洗钱网络的关键 一环。 来源：华尔街见闻 这一指控将原本围绕"流量质量"和"隐私合规"的商业争论，瞬间升级为涉及跨国有组织犯罪、反洗 ...

Core Viewpoint - Applovin has emerged as a leading player in the AI application sector, experiencing a stock price surge of over 700% within a year, reaching a market capitalization of over $200 billion, but recent allegations of being involved in a money laundering network have raised significant concerns about its business practices [2][4][20]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Applovin reported a revenue growth of 68% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 82%, showcasing exceptional profitability compared to industry peers [3][23]. - The company's transition to a pure advertising technology platform has resulted in a software platform revenue of $3.22 billion in 2024, a 75% increase year-over-year [21][22]. Allegations and Controversies - A report by CapitalWatch accused Applovin of being a key player in a large-scale international money laundering network, implicating major shareholders in illegal financial activities [7][10]. - The report detailed a sophisticated money laundering strategy involving fictitious high-end service trades and the use of underground banking networks to transfer funds [12][13]. - Applovin has faced scrutiny from short-sellers, with previous allegations of commercial fraud regarding its AXON2.0 algorithm, which is claimed to infringe on user privacy [16][17][20]. Market Position and Future Challenges - Despite its impressive growth and profitability, Applovin's reliance on advertising as a middleman may be threatened by the rise of AI agents that could disrupt traditional advertising models [30][32]. - The company is positioned at a crossroads, balancing its status as a market darling with serious allegations of financial misconduct and the looming threat of technological disruption in the advertising space [34].

Core Insights - Applovin reported strong performance in Q2 FY25, driven by growth in game advertising, supported by technological advancements, increased market demand, and supply expansion [1] - The company aims for a 20%-30% annual growth in the core gaming market, while e-commerce currently accounts for about 10% of revenue with significant growth potential [1][29] - Following the sale of its Apps business, Applovin's free cash flow margin exceeds 60%, with plans to reinvest in business growth and conduct stock buybacks [1][23] Group 1: Business Performance - Game advertising continues to show robust growth, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately 9% and a long-term growth target of 20%-30% [7][29] - E-commerce revenue is expected to grow significantly, especially with the upcoming holiday season and the planned international market expansion [7][29] - The company has a strong cash flow performance, with a focus on organic growth through talent acquisition and shareholder returns [1][23] Group 2: Market Strategy - Applovin plans to initiate paid marketing to acquire new advertisers, leveraging its competitive business model and strong cash flow performance [2][3] - The company aims to automate the entire process from ad exposure to scaling, which will enhance customer lifetime value and customer acquisition cost efficiency [3] - The introduction of the AXON model is expected to enhance advertising capabilities, particularly in e-commerce, with a focus on integrating various advertising tools [5][12] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a significant increase in e-commerce business as it opens its self-service platform to a broader market, with expectations of rapid growth in new advertisers [6][31] - Applovin is exploring expansion into non-gaming sectors, with plans to tap into various media resources to reach a wider audience [20][21] - The company is optimistic about future growth, particularly in international markets, as it continues to enhance its platform and advertising capabilities [24][25]