泡泡玛特股价近4个月呈接连下跌趋势，较年中高点已跌去四成有余。做空资金正在围剿这家年中风头 无两的潮玩巨头。 相较三四年前其股价处在低洼时，公司接连出手回购股票的做法，如今的泡泡玛特显得有些静默。在此 情形下，多家机构已开始对泡泡玛特的发展前景产生疑虑。 截至12月12日，泡泡玛特港股市值较今年8月的高点已蒸发近2000亿港元。但考虑到自今年开年以来， 公司股价一度涨超三倍，2025年对泡泡玛特而言依然是大涨之年。 图片来源：视觉中国 回看8月，泡泡玛特发布2025年半年报时，公司股价正值高峰，炙手可热的LABUBU产品供不应求，创 始人王宁在业绩发布会上多次提及"健康"一词。他说："对我们来说，业绩增长固然重要，但也关心整 个公司的健康度。" 股价的拐点与泡泡玛特重要IP LABUBU产品的供应拐点有所重合。在全球多地出现排队购买 LABUBU，且为此出现大打出手等"不健康"情况后，泡泡玛特在今年618期间进行大规模补货， LABUBU首次开启线上预售，并着手扩大产能，加大市场供给。 随之而来的是，二手市场中LABUBU 3.0系列价格开始回落。但热度仍延续了两个月。8月底，市场出 现明显降温。黄牛开始因跌 ...

泡泡玛特的潮玩生意正与奢侈品产生更密切的联系。 12月10日，泡泡玛特宣布LVMH大中华区总裁吴越成为了公司董事会的新任非执行董事。 吴越最早在1993年就加入LVMH集团并担任Dior香水的中国业务负责人。2005年再度加入后担任LVMH 大中华区总裁，负责旗下多个奢侈品牌在华业务。 此番吴越的"兼职"落定，或指向泡泡玛特发起国际时尚潮流核心圈层的进一步探索。 尽管自业绩爆发以来，泡泡玛特接近70%毛利率被频繁与爱马仕等奢侈品对比。 但年仅十五岁的泡泡玛特，实际上还是一家年轻公司。 与昔日"一娃难求"的火爆景象相比，如今泡泡玛特产品在二级市场的溢价明显回落，热度较此前也有所 降温。 王宁曾表示其对奢侈品牌LV是如何制造"充足的稀缺"感兴趣。 "我喜欢艺术和商业，但这两件事情是很矛盾的，因为商业追求普遍，而艺术是追求独特的，我们一直 想要找一个平衡点。"王宁说。 在泡泡玛特市值动荡的当下，与全球奢侈品巨头的更多关联与交集，似乎正在成为这种平衡的新表达。 致力双赢 "稀缺"是潮玩和奢侈品行业共同的追求。 奢侈品的价值不仅在于产品本身，更在于展现身份、地位和品味。"排他性"的稀缺，构成了社会分层与 身份认同的基础 ...

文｜新消费早参 狂飙的泡泡玛特，在股价上踩了急刹车。 昨天，泡泡玛特股价又跌了5个点，以190.3港元/股收盘。这一表现较8月份高点的339.8港元/股已然缩 水近44%。市值蒸发超2000亿港元，几乎等同于一个海天味业。 这并非是新课题。当一个主打创意、IP、文化娱乐的品牌公司，开始进行规模化工业生产时，泡泡玛特 就已陷入"可获得性悖论"：稀缺的潮流IP或将沦为大众消费品。 对标"前辈"迪士尼先后布局娱乐、体育、体验等业务板块，国潮泡泡玛特可能还有很长的路要走。 股价"跌跌不休" 在最近7个交易日，泡泡玛特股价只有两日飘红。且在飘绿交易日中，该公司股价动辄就下滑八九个 点。 如果对比近期股价制高点的8月29日（339.8港元/股），泡泡玛特市值已经缩水超4成。 自2020年底登陆港股，泡泡玛特以80港元/股的发行价出现在股民面前。在2022年第四季度，其股价跌 落谷底，跌破10元。但从2024年2月底，泡泡玛特股价开始回升，至2024年10月底，其股价再度逼近发 行价。此后便一路走高，至2025年8月29日的盘中339.8港元/股。 粗略估算一下，泡泡玛特这一波下跌行情已经持续了3个多月时间。 根据外部消息 ...

Group 1: Availability Paradox and Market Dynamics - Deutsche Bank warns that Pop Mart is facing an "Availability Paradox" as its production capacity aggressively expands to 50 million units per month by year-end, leading to Labubu transitioning from a scarce trendy IP to a mass consumer product, which may signal a decline in popularity for trend-driven toys [1] - If Labubu's popularity peaks in 2026 without new hit products, valuation pressure on Pop Mart will increase significantly [1] Group 2: Copper Market Supply and Price Forecast - Deutsche Bank indicates that the global copper market is experiencing a supply squeeze, with severe supply disruptions pushing copper prices close to historical highs [3] - The report predicts a decline in mine supply by 2025, with only a 1% rebound expected the following year, resulting in a "clear deficit" in the market [3] - As a result, Deutsche Bank raises its copper price forecast for 2026 to $10,600 per ton, with potential peaks exceeding $11,000 per ton in the first half of 2026 [3][6] Group 3: Key Company Updates and Investment Focus - Glencore is set to hold its first Capital Markets Day (CMD) in two years, aiming to restore market confidence in its operational capabilities, while Rio Tinto focuses on business simplification and capital discipline [4][9] - Deutsche Bank lists Anglo Teck, Glencore, and Freeport as preferred stocks, adjusting ratings for Boliden to "Buy" and First Quantum to "Hold" [7] - Glencore's CMD on December 3 is highly anticipated, with expectations that it will provide guidance on copper production and capital expenditures, while also addressing potential M&A discussions [8] Group 4: Rio Tinto's Strategic Focus - Rio Tinto's CMD on December 4 is expected to emphasize capital discipline, business simplification, and divestment of non-core assets, with a projected annual capital expenditure guidance of $10-11 billion [10] - The market will closely monitor production guidance for the Simandou project, amid concerns of potential oversupply [10]

德银警告，泡泡玛特正在遭遇"可获得性悖论"（Availability Paradox）。随着产能极其激进地扩张至年底的 月产5000万个 ，Labubu正从稀缺的潮流IP迅速沦 为大众消费品， 稀缺性溢价的消失将直接打击其时尚属性和二级市场价格。 据追风交易台消息，德银在12月1日的报告中表示，市场习惯于根据2025年的爆发式增长线性推导未来，但当前由Labubu推动的强劲增长掩盖了泡泡玛特供需 反转的巨大风险。 如果Labubu热度在2026年见顶且无新爆款接力（熊市情景），届时泡泡玛特估值压力将陡增。基于2025年预期的市盈率（18x/20x），德银分析师给予泡泡玛 特持有评级，港股目标价228港元， 产能狂飙与稀缺性的终结：从1000万到5000万 德银认为，泡泡玛特正在进行一场危险的赌博：用稀缺性换取短期收入规模。为了满足激增的需求，泡泡玛特的产能已从上半年的月均约1000万个，疯狂拉升 至年底的月均5000万个。 这一举措虽然将在2025年带来约为145亿人民币的调整后净利润，但也不仅解决了供应瓶颈，更制造了"可获得性悖论"。曾经的一货难求变成了随处可见， Labubu正从供应受限的"时尚单品"转变 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank warns that Pop Mart is facing an "Availability Paradox," as the rapid expansion of production capacity is transforming the once-scarce Labubu IP into a mass consumer product, which will diminish its fashion appeal and secondary market prices [1][2]. Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - Pop Mart's production capacity has surged from an average of 10 million units per month in the first half of the year to 50 million units per month by the end of the year [1]. - This aggressive capacity expansion is seen as a risky gamble, trading scarcity for short-term revenue growth [1]. Financial Projections - Deutsche Bank estimates that this strategy will yield an adjusted net profit of approximately RMB 14.5 billion in 2025 [2]. - The bank maintains a "Hold" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of HKD 228, based on a projected P/E ratio of 18x to 20x for 2025 [1][11]. Market Sentiment and Pricing Trends - Since August 2025, the premium prices for Labubu and other popular IPs have significantly declined, with some hidden variants losing over 50% of their peak value [5]. - The secondary market has shown alarming signs, with regular versions of Labubu dropping below official retail prices on platforms like "Qian Dao" and "Xian Yu" [5]. Consumer Behavior and Product Reception - The popularity of Labubu has shifted from a "must-have" to a readily available product, leading to a decrease in consumer interest and a drop in search trends on Google since mid-2025 [7]. - Recent product launches, such as "Labubu Mini" and "The Monsters 1 a.m.," have not sold out as quickly as previous releases, indicating potential consumer fatigue [10]. Valuation Scenarios - Deutsche Bank presents two contrasting valuation scenarios for Pop Mart: - Bear Case: If Labubu's popularity peaks in 2026 without new IPs, net profit could drop to RMB 10.6 billion, leading to a P/E ratio of 23x [11]. - Bull Case: If growth continues and new IPs emerge, net profit could exceed RMB 23.1 billion, resulting in a P/E ratio of 13x [11].