功率半导体市场跟踪：频传涨价背后的逻辑探讨及行情展 望 20260126 摘要 功率器件封装成本显著上升，主要受金属材料价格上涨驱动，封装成本 占器件总成本的 50%以上，其中金属材料占比高达 60%-70%，导致整 体成本增加 20%-30%。 AI 服务器市场对 MOS 管需求激增，头部国际供应商产能受限，交期延 长，进一步推高价格，但工控、汽车、家电等领域需求平稳，不足以支 撑全面大幅涨价。 国内功率器件市场中，二三极管等中小功率元件受原材料价格波动影响 更大，涨价潜力较高，而 IGBT 因晶圆成本占比高，受影响相对较小。 功率器件涨价目前处于市场试探阶段，实际涨幅有限，预计 2026 年第 一季度可能生效，高端产品和替代安氏产品的品类具有更大的上涨潜力。 全球功率器件厂商库存已基本出清，维持在较低水平，但产能仍然供过 于求，单凭库存出清不足以推动价格上涨，成本提升是主要驱动因素。 AI 服务器电源对功率器件需求带来显著增量，预计 2026 年全球市场规 模达 15-20 亿美元，2027 年可能增至 35 亿美元，主要受益于高压 MOS、碳化硅 MOS 等。 碳化硅在新能源汽车和储能领域的渗透率持续上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical tensions surrounding the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on the conflict involving Dutch company Nexperia (formerly part of Philips and NXP) and its Chinese parent company, Wingtech Technology, amid U.S. export controls and Dutch government intervention [5][28][36]. Group 1: Background of Nexperia - Nexperia originated as a core semiconductor division of Philips and later became a part of NXP, which has shifted its focus to high-profit sectors like IoT and automotive chips, leading to Nexperia being spun off due to its lower profit margins in power semiconductors [15][16]. - Nexperia specializes in power semiconductors, which include diodes and transistors, and has established itself as a leader in automotive-grade chips, holding significant market shares in various segments, including 40% of the global inverter chip market for electric vehicles [18][20][25]. Group 2: Acquisition and Growth - In 2019, Wingtech Technology acquired Nexperia for over 34 billion yuan, transforming it into a Chinese subsidiary, which subsequently experienced significant growth, with revenue increasing by 60% and net profits multiplying since the acquisition [23][25]. - Nexperia's success has been bolstered by the rise of China's new energy vehicle market, with 40% of its shipments directed to Chinese automakers, contributing to substantial tax revenues and job creation in Europe [25]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - In December 2022, Wingtech was placed on the U.S. export control entity list, which was later expanded to include Nexperia, prompting the Dutch government to intervene and take control of the company, citing national security concerns [28][31]. - The Dutch government's actions included freezing Wingtech's global subsidiaries and replacing its management, which has been criticized as a capitulation to U.S. pressure and a move to seize valuable assets [31][34]. Group 4: Impact on the Semiconductor Supply Chain - Following the Dutch government's intervention, China responded with export controls on Nexperia's products, halting shipments from its critical manufacturing facilities in Dongguan and Huizhou, which are essential for the global supply chain [36][37]. - The European automotive industry expressed alarm over potential chip shortages, with major manufacturers warning that their production lines could face immediate disruptions due to the lack of semiconductor supplies [41][42]. Group 5: Future Implications - The situation highlights the fragility of global supply chains in the semiconductor industry, where geopolitical tensions can rapidly escalate into significant operational challenges for companies [46]. - The article suggests that the era of easily seizing foreign assets through legal means is over, emphasizing the need for careful consideration before leveraging such strategies in a globalized economy [47][48].