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高盛:中国游戏与娱乐-2025 年第二季度财报季展望、关键市场争议与布局
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-11 01:13
Investment Ratings - Kuaishou: Buy rated, share price increased by 55% YTD and 28% post 1Q result [3] - Tencent Music: Buy rated, share price increased by 80% YTD and 37% post 1Q result [5] - NetEase: Buy rated, share price increased by 52% YTD and 25% post 1Q result [11] - Focus Media: Buy rated, share price increased by 11% YTD and 8% post 1Q result [14] - Bilibili: Buy rated, share price increased by 31% YTD and 22% post 1Q result [18] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong rally in major games and entertainment names post 1Q25 results, driven by resilient growth profiles, disciplined competition, AI applications potential, and rising expectations on game pipelines [1] - Key focus areas for the upcoming earnings season include advertising outlook, game momentum into the summer peak season, AI applications monetization, and pricing strategies [2] - The report anticipates that further upside in share prices will require continued earnings delivery or new growth engines contributing to revenue growth in future years [1] Kuaishou - Kuaishou is expected to deliver in-line results for 2Q25 with a 12% year-over-year growth in ads and a 13% growth in GMV, with a 3Q25 outlook of 14% ads growth [3][4] - The company is positioned to improve sequential ads from 2Q onwards due to higher monetization efforts, despite competition from peers [4] - The revenue target for Kling AI has been raised from US$100 million to over US$140 million for FY25 [4] Tencent Music - Tencent Music is projected to achieve a 17% year-over-year growth in music revenue for 2Q25, with an ARPU increase of 9% [8] - The company is expected to maintain good momentum in ARPU due to lower discounts on SVIP subscriptions and new content initiatives [9] - Long-term growth visibility remains strong, with expectations of mid-teen year-over-year music revenue growth [10] NetEase - NetEase is expected to report a 15% year-over-year growth in game revenue for 2Q25, with operating profit increasing by 20% [11][12] - The company is focusing on updates for its 2026 game pipeline, with expectations of stable performance from legacy titles [13] - The stock is trading at 16X 2025E PE, with potential for further EPS upgrades [13] Focus Media - Focus Media's revenue is expected to increase by 1% year-over-year in 2Q25, with operating profit up by 3% [14] - The company anticipates a 6% year-over-year sales increase in 2H25 due to rising ad demand from internet and selective consumer players [15] - The collaboration with Alipay aims to target 400K devices across tier 1/2 locations [17] Bilibili - Bilibili's game sales are projected to increase by 58% year-over-year in 2Q25, with ads up by 18% [18] - The company is expected to face a high comparison in 2H24 but has reset market expectations lower, with potential catalysts from new game approvals [19] - Despite valuation concerns, Bilibili is expected to deliver faster than industry growth in ads and livestreaming [20] Price Targets and Estimates - For NetEase, revenue estimates for 2025-27E have been slightly adjusted downwards, while net profit estimates have been raised [21] - Focus Media's revenue estimates have been trimmed slightly, but the price target has been revised up to Rmb8.3 [21] - Across game coverage, price targets and estimates for XD have been raised due to solid new game releases and better profit margins [21]
NETEASE INC(9999.HK)2Q25 PREVIEW:PROFIT TO BEAT;SUSTAINABLE PROFITABLE GROWTH IN 2025 AND HIGHLY EXPECTED NEW FRANCHISES IN 2026
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-09 02:16
2Q25 preview: strong PC; flattish YoY mobile; profit beat. We model total revenue will hike 11% YoY to RMB28.2bn, -1% below consensus. We forecast pure online game revenue will jump 16% YoY to RMB22.4bn, -2% below consensus. PC game revenue will grow at 67% YoY to RMB7.6bn, continuously contributed by Marvel Rivals in overseas, domestic Blizzard games and Where Winds Meet PC domestically. Mobile game revenue will be flattish YoY at RMB14.8bn mainly affected by Justice Mobile being offset by Where Winds Meet ...
Seeking China Exposure? Use This Zacks Screen
ZACKS· 2025-06-11 01:21
Group 1: Investment Themes - Zacks Thematic Screens offers insights into 30 dynamic investment themes, including technology, renewable energy, and healthcare innovations [1][10] - The China Technology theme focuses on China-based technology companies listed on the U.S. stock market, covering sectors like Internet services, e-commerce, and online gaming [5][3] Group 2: China Technology Sector - The China Technology sector is characterized by companies that are leaders in their fields, aiming to reduce reliance on Western technology amid Sino-U.S. trade tensions [3][4] - Recent U.S. restrictions on high-tech exports have prompted China to accelerate self-sufficiency efforts in critical industries, enhancing its position in technology [4] Group 3: NetEase Performance - NetEase (NTES) is highlighted as a top-ranked stock within the China Technology screen, benefiting from strong quarterly results and a favorable EPS outlook [2][6] - The company reported a 7% year-over-year revenue growth in its latest quarter, driven by popular games like Marvel Rivals [8][7]
4 Stocks From the Tech Industry of China to Keep an Eye On in 2H25
ZACKS· 2025-06-04 15:21
Core Insights - China's technology sector is expected to show resilience in H2 2025, leveraging global trade pressures to foster indigenous innovation despite facing significant U.S. tariffs and export restrictions [2] - Major Chinese tech companies are pivoting investments towards AI infrastructure and emerging technologies, with strong demand for AI outpacing supply [2] - The semiconductor industry in China has captured over 25% of the global market share in advanced packaging technologies, showcasing its competitive edge [5] Company Highlights - **NetEase**: - Demonstrated strong financial momentum with Q1 2025 gaming revenues increasing by 12.1% year over year to RMB24.0 billion and net income rising by 35% to RMB10.3 billion [9][11] - Upcoming game titles and a robust pipeline position the company for growth in the second half of 2025 [10][11] - **Alibaba**: - Reported Q4 fiscal 2025 non-GAAP earnings surged by 23% year over year to $1.73 per ADS, exceeding estimates by 16.89% [12][13] - The Cloud Intelligence segment achieved 18% revenue growth, with AI-related products maintaining triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [12] - **Taiwan Semiconductor**: - Achieved Q1 2025 revenues of $25.53 billion, a 35% year-over-year increase, with net income rising by 53% to nearly $11 billion [15] - Plans to increase capital spending to between $38 and $42 billion in 2025 to meet growing AI-driven demand for advanced chips [16] - **Tencent**: - Reported Q1 revenues of RMB180 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, with gaming division growth accelerating [17] - Integrated AI capabilities are enhancing user engagement and advertising effectiveness, positioning the company favorably in the market [18][19] Industry Trends - The robotics sector in China is advancing with innovations such as sophisticated humanoid robots, while the electric vehicle ecosystem is bolstered by companies like Zeekr and Great Wall Motor [6] - Augmented reality companies in Beijing are developing advanced AR solutions, reflecting China's strategy to lead in high-tech sectors [7] - The overall technological advancements and significant investments in development present substantial growth opportunities for investors in the Chinese tech landscape [8]
网易:2025 年第一季度业绩速览 —— 第一季度表现出色,游戏收入和利润率超预期
2025-05-18 14:09
ab 15 May 2025 A: We expect upward consensus revisions given the strong Q1 bottom line beat. Q: How would we expect investors to react? First Read NetEase Q125 results quick take: Very solid Q1 with game revenue and margin beats Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? A: NetEase's Q125 was a beat on both revenue and margin, echoing our constructiveness into results. Q1 revenue grew 7.4% YoY, beat UBSe/consensus by 2/1%, respectively. The core game revenue growth accelerated notably to 15% YoY, up fr ...
NETEASE INC(9999.HK):1Q25 SOLID BEAT ESPECIALLY PROFIT;BEARING N-T FRUITS FROM EFFICIENCYORIENTED STREAMLINED ADJUSTMENTS
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-16 17:40
Total revenue grew +7% YoY to RMB28.8bn, 1% above consensus. Core onlinegame grew 15% YoY to RMB23.4bn, 5%/ 2% beat consensus/ BOCIe. PC andmobile game revenue delivered +85% YoY/ -4% YoY respectively, 0%/ 3%ahead of BOCIe. Marvel Rivals, Where Winds Meet, Blizzard games and Naraka:Bladepoint contributed to skyrocketed PC game revenue. GPM expanded bothYoY/ QoQ to 64.1%, 61.8% above consensus. Along with disciplined opexespecially S&M (down -33% YoY/ -4% QoQ), operating profit grew 37% YoYwith 36.2% OPM, si ...
网易(NTES):买入热门游戏表现出色
Hui Feng Yin Hang· 2025-05-16 05:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase, with a target price increase to USD 130 from USD 120, implying a 21.4% upside from the current share price of USD 107.11 [6][11][100] Core Insights - NetEase's recent earnings report showed a 25% beat in earnings, a 5% beat in game revenue, and an 11% beat in deferred revenue, leading to a revision of EPS growth to +18% year-on-year in 2025 [2][11] - The strong deferred revenue growth of 19% year-on-year indicates potential for accelerating game revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [2][97] - Upcoming game launches, including Marvel Mystic Mayhem and Destiny Rising, are anticipated to be key focus areas following the annual product launch event [2][11] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, NetEase reported total revenue of RMB 28,829 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7% [91] - Online game revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, driven by strong performances from titles such as Identity V, Where Winds Meet, and Marvel Rivals [94] - The gross profit margin (GPM) for games and related value-added services (VAS) was reported at 67%, with a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 11,393 million, representing a 34% year-on-year increase [91][94] Game Highlights - Mobile game revenue only fell by 4% year-on-year, outperforming consensus expectations of a 6% decline, thanks to strong performances from Identity V and Where Winds Meet [3][94] - PC game revenue saw an impressive growth of 85% year-on-year, significantly above the consensus estimate of 67%, driven by contributions from WWM PC and Blizzard titles [3][94] - The launch of Once Human mobile resulted in 6 million new users in its first week, boosting the PC version's revenue by 500% [3][94] Margin Discussions - The report notes an increase in games and related VAS gross profit margin quarter-on-quarter, attributed to a reduced focus on non-game businesses and a shift towards profitability [4][94] - The report anticipates that it will take a few quarters for sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue to normalize [4] Valuation Metrics - The report provides estimates for future financial performance, projecting revenue of RMB 116,721 million for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [98] - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is 12.6, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [7][14] Pipeline and Future Outlook - The report highlights key upcoming titles such as Ananta, expected to launch in 2026, which could significantly contribute to future revenue streams [2][90] - The successful return of Overwatch in China has set new records for peak concurrent users, indicating strong market demand for NetEase's offerings [94]
网易(NTES):网易来之不易的胜利
Ubs Securities· 2025-05-16 05:45
ab 16 May 2025 First Read NetEase A hard earned victory Strong Q125 with significant bottom line beat NetEase's Q125 was very strong with beat in both mobile and PC game revenue and notable margin beat, driven by higher than expected game margin and lower than expected S&M. Net, Q1 was 30/25% beat to UBSe/consensus bottom line. See our quick take. Key takeaways from conference call 1) PC game revenue grew strongly by 85% YoY, mainly driven by 1) the strong launch of Marvel Rivals; 2) record performance of e ...
高盛:网易 - 2025 年第一季度业绩超预期,增长前景愈发明朗;上调目标价,建议买入
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-16 05:29
16 May 2025 | 2:24AM HKT NetEase Inc. (NTES) Buy Earnings Review: 1Q clean beat and rising growth visibility for 2025; Raise TP, Buy | NTES | 12m Price Target: $140.00 | Price: $107.11 | Upside: 30.7% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9999.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$219.00 | Price: HK$168.10 | Upside: 30.3% | NetEase delivered a clean beat across revenue/GP/OP line in 1Q25, with Game revenue up 15% and OP up 34% yoy. We believe this set of results should ease investors' concern over its legacy/mobile games weakn ...
网易20250515
2025-05-15 15:05
网易 20250515 摘要 • NetEase's Q1 2025 shows a 7% YoY revenue increase, driven by new game successes and flagship titles, boosting gaming and value-added services revenue by 12% YoY to RMB 24.0 billion. This growth is fueled by global expansion and diversification of its game portfolio. • "Marvel Rivals" has sustained strong global player engagement, reclaiming the top spot on Steam's Global Top Seller chart after Season 2's launch in April, which introduced new maps, heroes, and themes. This demonstrates NetEa ...