NetEase (NasdaqGS:NTES) Q3 2025 Earnings Call November 20, 2025 07:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBrandi Piacente - Head of Investor RelationsNone - Company RepresentativeBill Pang - VP of Corporate DevelopmentThomas Chang - Managing DirectorWilliam Ding - CEOJialong Shi - Managing DirectorConference Call ParticipantsYu Qingzeng - AnalystFelix Liu - Lead Analyst and Executive DirectorRitchie Sun - Equity Research AnalystAlicia Yap - Equity Research AnalystLincoln Kong - Equity Research AnalystOperatorGood day ...

BREAKING: Nvidia Drives Futures Higher Chinese video game and internet services provider NetEase (NTES) early Thursday delivered mixed results for the third quarter. NetEase stock fell on the news. NetEase earned an adjusted $2.09 per U.S. share on sales of $4 billion in the September quarter. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected earnings of $2.06 a share on sales of $4.05 billion. On a year-over-year… Related news Get instant access to exclusive stock lists, expert market analysis and powerful tools wit ...

Core Insights - The company reported a 9% YoY growth in total revenue to RMB27.9 billion, which was 2% below consensus expectations [3] - Operating profit increased by 30% YoY to RMB9.1 billion, also missing consensus by 1% [1] - Cash revenue reached RMB21.2 billion, reflecting a 20% YoY increase and beating forecasts by 3%, indicating successful summer campaigns [1] Financial Performance - Core online game revenue grew 15% YoY to RMB22.1 billion, slightly below consensus estimates [3] - Gross profit margin expanded to 64.7%, exceeding the consensus of 63.4% [3] - The company has a deferred revenue of RMB16.1 billion, which is a 28% YoY increase [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on rejuvenating existing game portfolios and improving operational efficiency, prioritizing quality over quantity in game development [1] - Successful summer campaigns for key franchises such as Marvel Rivals and Where Winds Meet were highlighted, supported by strong operational capabilities [1] - Upcoming game launches include Destiny Rising and Diablo II, with a focus on cross-terminal global launches [1] Operational Adjustments - The company has streamlined its game development and marketing operations, leading to improved efficiency [1] - Significant increases in operating expenses (opex) by 6-8% were noted, particularly in sales and marketing (S&M) estimates, which were raised by 10-14% [2] Valuation and Outlook - The target price has been uplifted to US$153/HK$240 based on adjusted earnings per share and net cash [3] - The company has repurchased approximately 0.5 million shares and has a remaining buyback quota of US$3.0 billion until January 2026 [3]

Financial Performance - NetEase's market capitalization was $854 billion as of August 13, 2025[9] - Net revenues for 2Q25 reached $39 billion[9] - Net income attributable to the company's shareholders for 2Q25 was $12 billion[9] - Basic net income per ADS (GAAP) for 2Q25 was $188[9] - Net cash as of June 30, 2025, amounted to $198 billion[9] Revenue Breakdown (2Q25) - Games and related value-added services generated $3184 million in net revenues[12] - Youdao's net revenues were $198 million[20] - NetEase Cloud Music's net revenues reached $275 million[23] - Innovative businesses and others contributed $237 million in net revenues[26] Games Performance - Online games accounted for 97% of games and related value-added services revenue in 2Q25[12] - Fantasy Westward Journey Online reached over 293 million peak concurrent players in August[18] ESG Ratings - NetEase received an AA rating from MSCI[9, 40] - NetEase's Sustainalytics rating indicates a low-risk company[40]

Core Viewpoint - NetEase, Inc. reported its unaudited financial results for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting a slight decrease in net revenues compared to the previous quarter, but a year-over-year increase, driven primarily by growth in its gaming segment and new game launches [1][2]. Financial Highlights - Net revenues for Q2 2025 were RMB27.9 billion (US$3.9 billion), a decrease of 3.1% from RMB28.8 billion in Q1 2025 but an increase of 9.4% from RMB25.5 billion in Q2 2024 [7][14]. - Net revenues from games and related services were RMB22.8 billion (US$3.2 billion), down 5.0% from RMB24.0 billion in Q1 2025 but up 13.7% from RMB20.1 billion in Q2 2024 [8][14]. - Net income attributable to shareholders was RMB8.6 billion (US$1.2 billion), down from RMB10.3 billion in Q1 2025 but up from RMB6.8 billion in Q2 2024 [17][18]. - Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders was RMB9.5 billion (US$1.3 billion), compared to RMB11.2 billion in Q1 2025 and RMB7.8 billion in Q2 2024 [18][19]. Operational Highlights - The company emphasized its commitment to product innovation and community engagement, which are seen as key drivers for future growth [5][6]. - New game launches, including "FragPunk," "Dunk City Dynasty," and "MARVEL Mystic Mayhem," achieved significant rankings in download charts across various platforms [14]. - Established franchises like "Sword of Justice" and "Identity V" maintained strong player engagement, contributing to the overall performance [14]. Segment Performance - Youdao's net revenues were RMB1.4 billion (US$197.9 million), showing a slight increase from both the previous quarter and the same quarter last year [9]. - NetEase Cloud Music generated RMB2.0 billion (US$274.8 million), remaining stable compared to Q1 2025 but slightly down from Q2 2024 [10]. - Innovative businesses and others reported RMB1.7 billion (US$237.2 million), reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase but a year-over-year decrease [11]. Cost and Profitability - Cost of revenues for Q2 2025 was RMB9.8 billion (US$1.4 billion), a decrease from RMB10.3 billion in Q1 2025 [12]. - Gross profit was RMB18.1 billion (US$2.5 billion), an increase of 12.5% compared to Q2 2024 [13]. - Total operating expenses were RMB9.0 billion (US$1.3 billion), showing a slight decrease from the same quarter last year [14]. Cash Flow and Financial Position - As of June 30, 2025, the company's net cash totaled RMB142.1 billion (US$19.8 billion), an increase from RMB131.5 billion at the end of 2024 [20]. - Net cash provided by operating activities was RMB10.9 billion (US$1.5 billion) for Q2 2025, down from RMB12.1 billion in Q1 2025 [20]. Dividend and Share Repurchase - The board approved a dividend of US$0.1140 per share for Q2 2025, payable in September 2025 [21]. - The company has repurchased approximately 22.1 million ADSs for a total cost of US$2.0 billion under its share repurchase program [23].

Core Insights - NetEase (NTES) is set to announce its second-quarter 2025 results on August 14, with revenue expectations of $3.86 billion, reflecting a 10.02% year-over-year growth [1] - The consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) is $2.04, an increase of 2 cents over the past month, compared to $1.66 in the same quarter last year [1][9] - NTES has exceeded earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 9.17% [2] Revenue Drivers - The anticipated growth in Q2 2025 is attributed to strong gaming revenues and successful global launches, building on the momentum from Q1 [3] - Key titles such as Marvel Rivals, FragPunk, and Once Human are expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with Marvel Rivals maintaining high engagement after its Season 2 update [4][9] - Established titles like Where Winds Meet and Identity V are also projected to provide stable contributions, supported by ongoing content releases and regional expansions [5] Challenges - Despite the positive outlook, certain segments are expected to face challenges, particularly Youdao's learning services and NetEase Cloud Music, which may continue to struggle with revenue pressures [6] - The innovative businesses segment, including the Yanxuan e-commerce platform, is likely to experience intensified competition, impacting revenue growth [6] Earnings Expectations - The Zacks model indicates that NTES currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.25% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting a lower likelihood of an earnings beat compared to previous quarters [7]

Investment Ratings - Kuaishou: Buy rated, share price increased by 55% YTD and 28% post 1Q result [3] - Tencent Music: Buy rated, share price increased by 80% YTD and 37% post 1Q result [5] - NetEase: Buy rated, share price increased by 52% YTD and 25% post 1Q result [11] - Focus Media: Buy rated, share price increased by 11% YTD and 8% post 1Q result [14] - Bilibili: Buy rated, share price increased by 31% YTD and 22% post 1Q result [18] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong rally in major games and entertainment names post 1Q25 results, driven by resilient growth profiles, disciplined competition, AI applications potential, and rising expectations on game pipelines [1] - Key focus areas for the upcoming earnings season include advertising outlook, game momentum into the summer peak season, AI applications monetization, and pricing strategies [2] - The report anticipates that further upside in share prices will require continued earnings delivery or new growth engines contributing to revenue growth in future years [1] Kuaishou - Kuaishou is expected to deliver in-line results for 2Q25 with a 12% year-over-year growth in ads and a 13% growth in GMV, with a 3Q25 outlook of 14% ads growth [3][4] - The company is positioned to improve sequential ads from 2Q onwards due to higher monetization efforts, despite competition from peers [4] - The revenue target for Kling AI has been raised from US$100 million to over US$140 million for FY25 [4] Tencent Music - Tencent Music is projected to achieve a 17% year-over-year growth in music revenue for 2Q25, with an ARPU increase of 9% [8] - The company is expected to maintain good momentum in ARPU due to lower discounts on SVIP subscriptions and new content initiatives [9] - Long-term growth visibility remains strong, with expectations of mid-teen year-over-year music revenue growth [10] NetEase - NetEase is expected to report a 15% year-over-year growth in game revenue for 2Q25, with operating profit increasing by 20% [11][12] - The company is focusing on updates for its 2026 game pipeline, with expectations of stable performance from legacy titles [13] - The stock is trading at 16X 2025E PE, with potential for further EPS upgrades [13] Focus Media - Focus Media's revenue is expected to increase by 1% year-over-year in 2Q25, with operating profit up by 3% [14] - The company anticipates a 6% year-over-year sales increase in 2H25 due to rising ad demand from internet and selective consumer players [15] - The collaboration with Alipay aims to target 400K devices across tier 1/2 locations [17] Bilibili - Bilibili's game sales are projected to increase by 58% year-over-year in 2Q25, with ads up by 18% [18] - The company is expected to face a high comparison in 2H24 but has reset market expectations lower, with potential catalysts from new game approvals [19] - Despite valuation concerns, Bilibili is expected to deliver faster than industry growth in ads and livestreaming [20] Price Targets and Estimates - For NetEase, revenue estimates for 2025-27E have been slightly adjusted downwards, while net profit estimates have been raised [21] - Focus Media's revenue estimates have been trimmed slightly, but the price target has been revised up to Rmb8.3 [21] - Across game coverage, price targets and estimates for XD have been raised due to solid new game releases and better profit margins [21]

Core View - Company is expected to report 2Q25 results in late August 2025, forecasting an 11% YoY topline growth and a 16% YoY increase in pure online game revenue, which is slightly below consensus estimates [1][3] - Anticipated strong performance in PC games with a 67% YoY growth to RMB7.6 billion, while mobile game revenue is expected to remain flat YoY at RMB14.8 billion [1][3] - Adjusted net profit is projected to rise 28% YoY to RMB10.0 billion, exceeding consensus by 4%, with a forecasted 20% YoY growth in adjusted profit for 2025 to RMB40.3 billion [1][2] Revenue Forecast - Total revenue for 2Q25 is modeled to increase by 11% YoY to RMB28.2 billion, which is 1% below consensus [3] - Pure online game revenue is expected to jump 16% YoY to RMB22.4 billion, also 2% below consensus [3] - Cash revenue is forecasted to grow 17% YoY to RMB20.6 billion [1][3] Game Pipeline and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to experience a relatively light game pipeline in 2025, with key launches including "Marvel Mystic Mayhem" and "Supervive" [2] - Sustainable profitable growth is anticipated due to stable existing game franchises, channel optimizations, and a structural shift in game revenue mix [2] - The company is expected to achieve a gross profit margin (GPM) of 63.8% and an adjusted net profit margin (NPM) of 35.4%, both exceeding market expectations [3] Valuation and Target Price - The company maintains a BUY rating with an increased target price of US$150.0/HK$236.0, based on various valuation components including adjusted EPADS and stakes in Youdao and Cloud Music [4]

Group 1: Investment Themes - Zacks Thematic Screens offers insights into 30 dynamic investment themes, including technology, renewable energy, and healthcare innovations [1][10] - The China Technology theme focuses on China-based technology companies listed on the U.S. stock market, covering sectors like Internet services, e-commerce, and online gaming [5][3] Group 2: China Technology Sector - The China Technology sector is characterized by companies that are leaders in their fields, aiming to reduce reliance on Western technology amid Sino-U.S. trade tensions [3][4] - Recent U.S. restrictions on high-tech exports have prompted China to accelerate self-sufficiency efforts in critical industries, enhancing its position in technology [4] Group 3: NetEase Performance - NetEase (NTES) is highlighted as a top-ranked stock within the China Technology screen, benefiting from strong quarterly results and a favorable EPS outlook [2][6] - The company reported a 7% year-over-year revenue growth in its latest quarter, driven by popular games like Marvel Rivals [8][7]

Core Insights - China's technology sector is expected to show resilience in H2 2025, leveraging global trade pressures to foster indigenous innovation despite facing significant U.S. tariffs and export restrictions [2] - Major Chinese tech companies are pivoting investments towards AI infrastructure and emerging technologies, with strong demand for AI outpacing supply [2] - The semiconductor industry in China has captured over 25% of the global market share in advanced packaging technologies, showcasing its competitive edge [5] Company Highlights - **NetEase**: - Demonstrated strong financial momentum with Q1 2025 gaming revenues increasing by 12.1% year over year to RMB24.0 billion and net income rising by 35% to RMB10.3 billion [9][11] - Upcoming game titles and a robust pipeline position the company for growth in the second half of 2025 [10][11] - **Alibaba**: - Reported Q4 fiscal 2025 non-GAAP earnings surged by 23% year over year to $1.73 per ADS, exceeding estimates by 16.89% [12][13] - The Cloud Intelligence segment achieved 18% revenue growth, with AI-related products maintaining triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [12] - **Taiwan Semiconductor**: - Achieved Q1 2025 revenues of $25.53 billion, a 35% year-over-year increase, with net income rising by 53% to nearly $11 billion [15] - Plans to increase capital spending to between $38 and $42 billion in 2025 to meet growing AI-driven demand for advanced chips [16] - **Tencent**: - Reported Q1 revenues of RMB180 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, with gaming division growth accelerating [17] - Integrated AI capabilities are enhancing user engagement and advertising effectiveness, positioning the company favorably in the market [18][19] Industry Trends - The robotics sector in China is advancing with innovations such as sophisticated humanoid robots, while the electric vehicle ecosystem is bolstered by companies like Zeekr and Great Wall Motor [6] - Augmented reality companies in Beijing are developing advanced AR solutions, reflecting China's strategy to lead in high-tech sectors [7] - The overall technological advancements and significant investments in development present substantial growth opportunities for investors in the Chinese tech landscape [8]