Report Title - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Weekly Report - Industrial Silicon with No Prominent Contradictions, Polysilicon Continuing the Game between Policy Expectations and Negative Feedback [1] Report Date - November 9, 2025 [1] Report Author - An Ran [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the current trading logic is that although there is supply pressure, the expected slight inventory reduction due to the southwest's production cut in the dry season leads to a loose balance overall, with no prominent supply - demand contradictions. The valuation is relatively neutral to low, and it is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the fourth quarter. The risk of breaking through the lower limit comes from the coal end. It is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [61]. - For polysilicon, there is still a large divergence between industry policy - oriented expectations and the weak reality from the bottom - up of components. In the fourth quarter, the market will continue to repeatedly game the progress of mergers and acquisitions of production capacity. It will operate in a range - bound manner, with the lower limit anchored to the downstream's willingness - to - hold price and the upper limit pressured by the weak reality. When the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, one can try to buy out - of - the - money call options [66]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Overview and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Overview (11.3 - 11.7)** - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of 553 remained unchanged week - on - week, the price of 99 silicon in Xinjiang increased by 100 yuan, and the price of 421 remained unchanged. The prices of some raw materials such as petroleum coke and charcoal increased. The production in the northwest was basically stable, while the production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The total weekly production of industrial silicon decreased by 8504 tons, a decrease of 8.2% [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of N - type polysilicon dense material decreased slightly, the weekly production decreased by 0.12 million tons, a decrease of 4.3%. The inventory of polysilicon factories decreased slightly. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased slightly, and the production and inventory of silicon wafers also decreased [9]. - **Organic Silicon**: The data of DMC was not updated this week. New orders were weak, and the production of DMC was under pressure. The monomer factories were cautious in purchasing industrial silicon and tried to lower the price [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The silicon consumption increased by 7.4% month - on - month, maintaining the rigid demand rhythm [9]. - **Export**: The export volume decreased by 8.4% month - on - month. Although some overseas aluminum alloy factories had purchase orders, the transaction price was difficult to rise [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with a decrease of 0.21 million tons, a decrease of 0.29%. The social inventory decreased, while the factory inventory increased [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation** - **Industrial Silicon**: For the month - spread between November and December contracts, it is recommended to wait and see when it is around 2000 - 2200. For the 06 contract, one can try to short lightly at 11700 - 11800. One can also consider selling out - of - the - money put options on dips [62][64]. - **Polysilicon**: When the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, one can try to buy out - of - the - money call options [66]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply - **Price/Spread/Cost/Profit** - **Price**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon showed different trends, with the price of 99 silicon in Xinjiang rising and others remaining stable [7]. - **Cost**: The costs of industrial silicon in different regions were different, and the costs in some regions increased slightly [7]. - **Profit**: Most regions were in a loss state, and the profit situation in some regions improved slightly [7]. - **Industrial Silicon Supply** - **Monthly Production**: The production in different regions showed different trends, with the production in Xinjiang stable and the production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing significantly [7]. - **Weekly Production**: The total weekly production of industrial silicon decreased, mainly due to the significant decrease in the production in Yunnan and Sichuan [7]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory/Supply - Demand Difference** - **Inventory**: The total inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with the social inventory decreasing and the factory inventory increasing [9]. - **Supply - Demand Difference**: The supply - demand situation showed a loose balance, with no prominent contradictions [61]. 3. Industrial Silicon Demand - Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Supply Analysis** - **Price/Spread/Cost/Profit**: The price of polysilicon decreased slightly, the cost was stable, and the profit decreased slightly [9]. - **Polysilicon Supply**: The weekly production of polysilicon decreased, and it was expected that the production in November would be less than 1.2 million tons [9]. - **Polysilicon Demand Analysis** - The demand for polysilicon was affected by the production cut of silicon wafers, and the consumption decreased [9]. - **Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Chain Inventory Analysis** - The inventory of polysilicon factories decreased slightly, and the inventory of silicon wafers also decreased [9].