证券研究报告 海外MNC动态跟踪系列（十七） 辉瑞发布2025Q3财报：Nectin-4 ADC表现亮眼 医药 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 医药团队 分析师： 叶寅 投资咨询资格编号:S1060514100001 邮箱：YEYIN757@PINGAN.COM.CN 韩盟盟 投资咨询资格编号:S1060519060002 邮箱：HANMENGMENG005@PINGAN.COM.CN 张梦鸽 投资咨询资格编号:S1060525070003 邮箱：ZHANGMENGGE752@PINGAN.COM.CN 2025年11月20日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 行业观点 2 事件：辉瑞公布2025Q3业绩，Q3营收由去年同期的177亿美元降至166.5亿美元，同比下降7%（全文均以Oper增速为口径，剔除汇 率影响），主要受新冠产品（Paxlovid和Comirnaty）需求下滑拖累。尽管如此，公司上调了其全年盈利预测，因其非新冠业务增长 抵消整体营收滑坡。2025年前三季度总营收450.22亿美元，同比下降2%。 核心产品销售分析：肿瘤板块是三个板块增速最快板块，成为辉瑞业绩增长引擎。扛起肿瘤业务大旗的还是乳腺癌 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer's Q3 revenue decreased by 6% year-over-year to $16.65 billion, primarily due to a decline in demand for COVID-19 products, but the company raised its full-year earnings guidance due to growth in non-COVID business segments [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was $16.65 billion, down from $17.7 billion in the same quarter last year, with an operational decline of 7% [5][6]. - Net income for Q3 was $3.54 billion, a 21% decrease year-over-year, while adjusted net income was $4.95 billion, down 18% [5][6]. - Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.87, an 18% increase compared to the previous year, exceeding market expectations [5][6]. Business Segmentation - Global Biopharmaceuticals (Biopharma) revenue for Q3 was $16.31 billion, a 6% decline year-over-year [7]. - Pfizer CentreOne (PC1) revenue grew by 21% to $344 million [7]. - Pfizer Ignite revenue nearly vanished, dropping 99% year-over-year [7]. Guidance and Cost Management - The company maintained its full-year revenue guidance at $61 billion to $64 billion, while raising the adjusted diluted EPS forecast to $3.00-$3.15 from $2.90-$3.10 [8]. - Pfizer aims to achieve approximately $7.2 billion in net cost savings by the end of 2027 through previously announced cost improvement plans [9]. Market Dynamics - The decline in performance was mainly attributed to a significant drop in sales of COVID-related products, with Paxlovid's revenue down 55% and Comirnaty's down 20% [11]. - Non-COVID product revenue showed resilience, with a 4% operational growth driven by key products [12]. Strategic Developments - Pfizer announced a historic agreement with the Trump administration to ensure U.S. patients receive drug prices comparable to other developed countries, in exchange for tariff exemptions [12]. - The company faces challenges in the lucrative weight-loss drug market, having filed lawsuits against competitors regarding a key acquisition [12]. Product Performance - Sales of the anticoagulant drug Eliquis grew by 22% due to increased global demand and net pricing advantages in the U.S. [13]. - Rare disease drug Vyndaqel series saw a 7% operational growth, benefiting from ongoing promotion in the U.S. and other developed markets [13]. - Migraine medication Nurtec ODT/Vydura experienced a 22% operational growth, driven by strong demand in the U.S. and recent international market entries [13].

Core Insights - Pfizer is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on November 4, with a focus on oncology drug sales, which represent over 25% of total revenues [1] - The company has a strong presence in other therapeutic areas, including internal medicine, vaccines, inflammation & immunology, and rare diseases [2] Oncology Segment - Key oncology drugs include Ibrance, Xtandi, Lorbrena, Braftovi/Mektovi, and ADCs from the Seagen acquisition, such as Padcev [1] Primary Care Segment - Alliance revenues and direct sales from Eliquis are expected to rise due to increased global demand, though partially offset by lower pricing from the Inflation Reduction Act [3] - Sales of the Prevnar vaccine family are anticipated to increase, driven by strong adult uptake, despite lower pediatric sales [3] COVID-19 Related Products - Revenues from the COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty and antiviral pill Paxlovid are likely to have increased, with most Paxlovid sales coming from commercial channels [4] Newer Products - Sales of the RSV vaccine Abrysvo are expected to be limited due to restricted recommendations for RSV vaccinations [5] - Strong demand for Nurtec ODT/Vydura is anticipated, although impacted by the IRA Medical Part D redesign and the 340B program [5] Specialty Care Segment - Sales of Vyndaqel are expected to remain strong due to continued demand growth, while sales of Xeljanz and Enbrel are likely to decline [6][7]

Group 1: Core Business Performance - Pfizer is set to report second-quarter results on August 5, with a focus on oncology drug sales, which contribute approximately 25% to total revenues [1] - Key oncology drugs include Ibrance, Xtandi, Lorbrena, Braftovi/Mektovi, and ADCs from the Seagen acquisition, such as Padcev [1] - In Primary Care, revenues from Eliquis are expected to decline due to pricing pressures from the Inflation Reduction Act, offsetting higher demand [3] - Sales of the Prevnar vaccine are anticipated to decrease due to lower international market performance [3] - The COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty saw revenue increases in Q1, but the continuation of this trend in Q2 remains uncertain [4] - Sales of Paxlovid are likely to decline due to reduced COVID-19 infection rates [5] - In Specialty Care, Vyndaqel sales are expected to remain strong, while Xeljanz and Enbrel may see declines [6] Group 2: Financial Outlook and Valuation - Pfizer's stock has decreased by 1.8% this year, compared to a 1.3% decline in the industry [7] - The non-oncology Q2 outlook indicates growth in Vyndaqel and Nurtec, but mixed trends in vaccine sales [8] - Pfizer's shares are trading at a price/earnings ratio of 8.20, lower than the industry average of 14.60 and below its 5-year mean of 10.85 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has slightly decreased from $3.06 to $3.05 per share, and for 2026 from $3.09 to $3.08 per share over the past 60 days [12]