云需求持续强劲，关注数据中心交付进度 甲骨文（ORACLE)(ORCL.N) ——甲骨文 FY26Q2 业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 秦和平(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | qinheping@gtht.com | S0880523110003 | | 刁云鹏(研究助理) | 021-38674878 | diaoyunpeng@gtht.com | S0880125070016 | 本报告导读： 大幅上调 FY2026 资本支出，数据中心建设进度或为收入兑现的瓶颈。甲骨文采用 多种手段应对融资和现金流问题。OCI 具备灵活性，可快速适配多元化客户。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 52,961 | 57,399 | 67,046 | 84,328 | 127,751 | | 同比增长 | 6.0% | 8 ...

Oracle Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Oracle - **Quarter**: Recent earnings call discussing financial performance and strategic initiatives Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: Slightly below expectations by 0.76% - **SaaS Revenue**: Experienced growth despite overall revenue decline - **AI Subscription Rate**: Significant increase noted - **Pre-Tax Profit**: $2.7 billion, exceeding expectations due to the sale of Ampere business - **Gross Margin**: Remained stable, with a slight decline - **RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations)**: Increased by 15% to $523 billion, with a 12-month collection rate of approximately 10% [2][5][3] Revenue Guidance - **Annual Revenue Guidance**: Maintained at $67 billion, with expectations for improvement in FY2027 - **Cloudflare Investment**: Expanded to $12 billion, with annual guidance raised to $50 billion [2][5] Business Segment Performance - **OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure)**: Revenue grew by 68% year-over-year, annualized revenue exceeding $16 billion, with a target of $18 billion [2][5] - **Data Center Expansion**: Accelerated rollout, increasing multi-cloud database regions from 34 to 45, with a target of 72 regions [2][5] - **GPU Revenue**: Increased by approximately 177% year-over-year [4][8] Debt and Financing - **Long-term Debt**: Increased to over $90 billion, while short-term debt slightly decreased [6] - **Debt Management**: Company management reassured that total debt would remain below $100 billion, utilizing diverse data center construction models to mitigate financial risks [3][6] Strategic Partnerships - **Collaboration with OpenAI**: Progressing as expected, with models running on OCI cloud [4][7] - **Partnerships with NVIDIA and AMD**: Enhanced flexibility in chip supply strategies, maintaining neutrality among suppliers [4][7] Market Performance - **U.S. Market Growth**: Revenue in the U.S. increased by 17% year-over-year, reaching approximately $10.1 billion [9] - **RPO Growth**: Increased by 15% quarter-over-quarter and 439% year-over-year, driven by partnerships with major companies [9] Profitability and Cost Management - **Data Center Gross Margin**: Stabilized around 68%, slightly below management's target of 30-40% [11] - **Operating Profit**: Slightly below expectations by 1.56 percentage points, while net profit was slightly better than expected [11] Future Focus Areas - **Profitability Improvement**: Aiming to optimize gross and profit margins while accelerating RPO realization [12] - **Data-Related Business Expansion**: Focus on enhancing traditional database capabilities and building a unified data platform [12] - **AI Model Deployment**: Plans to deploy numerous AI models through OCI to create a data-centric ecosystem [12] Cash Flow Situation - **Free Cash Flow**: Reported at negative $10 billion, significantly below market expectations [16] - **CAPEX Investment**: Increased by approximately $3 billion, with plans for a more flexible CAPEX model to alleviate cash flow pressure [16]

Core Insights - Oracle's stock has experienced a significant decline of approximately 30% in one month, resulting in billions lost in market capitalization and erasing previous gains [2] - The decline is attributed to the market's waning enthusiasm for AI, alongside specific financial concerns regarding Oracle's operations [3] Financial Concerns - **Debt and Capital Risk**: There are rising concerns about Oracle's aggressive capital investments and increasing debt load, with credit default swaps indicating a heightened risk profile for the company [3] - **Client Concentration Risk**: The substantial $300 billion contract with OpenAI poses a significant client concentration risk for Oracle [3] - **Lagging Cloud Margins**: Oracle's cloud margins are trailing behind primary competitors by several percentage points, indicating potential financial liabilities due to rapid expansion fueled by borrowing [4] Market Performance History - Historical data shows that Oracle has faced severe stock declines during market downturns, including a 77% drop during the Dot-Com Bubble and a 41% decline during the Global Financial Crisis [6] - Even minor market corrections have led to significant downturns for Oracle, highlighting its vulnerability despite strong fundamentals [6] Future Risks - **AI Investment Risk**: The $300 billion agreement with OpenAI is under scrutiny due to potential financial pressures and negative free cash flow, with capital expenditures expected to reach $35 billion in FY26 [10] - **Cloud Market Lag**: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) holds only a 3% share in the cloud market as of Q3 2025, significantly trailing competitors like AWS, Azure, and Google [10] - **Cerner Slowdown**: Sales for Oracle Health (Cerner) are projected to either decline or remain flat in FY25/26, compounded by acquisition-related debt and client satisfaction challenges [10]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call primarily discusses Oracle Corporation and its cloud infrastructure business, particularly focusing on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and its various segments including AI infrastructure, distributed cloud, and enterprise applications. Key Points and Arguments Growth and Performance - OCI is experiencing significant growth across multiple segments, with enterprise customers showing a year-over-year growth rate of 33% from 2025 to 2026, while the multi-cloud database business is growing at over 1500% [21][22] - The distributed cloud segment is growing at 77% year-over-year with an average deal size of $67 million [32] - Cloud native workloads are growing at 49% year-over-year, with an average deal size of nearly $100 million [39] - AI infrastructure is seeing a remarkable 117% year-over-year growth in annualized consumed revenue [47] Customer Engagement and Ecosystem - Oracle's ecosystem includes partnerships with Independent Software Vendors (ISVs) that enhance the value proposition for enterprise customers [17][28] - The company emphasizes its ability to provide a seamless transition for existing enterprise applications to OCI, which is a key differentiator compared to competitors [27][66] - Specific examples of customers include NASDAQ, which moved its CAP Cloud to OCI, and Goldman Sachs, which utilizes OCI for high-performance computing [29][68] AI and Technology Integration - AI is a central theme, with Oracle integrating AI capabilities into its applications and infrastructure, making it a core component of its offerings [95] - The AI data platform is highlighted as a significant growth area, with investments aimed at enhancing its capabilities across all cloud providers [92] Financial Outlook - Oracle has contracted for $65 billion in additional commitments across infrastructure contracts in a recent 30-day period, indicating strong demand [83] - The company is currently supply constrained rather than demand constrained, focusing on securing the necessary resources to meet customer needs [85][86] Market Position and Strategy - Oracle positions itself as a leader in performance and price efficiency, particularly in the cloud infrastructure space [41][42] - The company is actively working on expanding its AI infrastructure capabilities and enhancing its data center efficiency to support growing customer demands [49][90] Other Important Content - The call includes discussions on the importance of partnerships with data center providers, energy providers, and hardware suppliers to accelerate growth [55] - The company is focused on optimizing its operations to align revenue and expenses effectively, particularly in the context of new infrastructure projects [52][53] - Oracle's commitment to providing a comprehensive cloud solution that includes both infrastructure and applications is emphasized as a unique selling point [34][72] This summary captures the essential insights and data points from the conference call, reflecting Oracle's strategic direction and market performance.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals [3]. Core Insights - Oracle's FY2026 Q1 financial results exceeded market expectations, with RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations) totaling over $455 billion, reflecting a 359% year-over-year increase [9][10]. - The demand for AI computing infrastructure is driving significant growth in Oracle's cloud services, with OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) expected to reach $18 billion in FY26 and grow to $144 billion by FY30 [12][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of both AI training and inference, highlighting the growing need for database capabilities and data governance in the AI ecosystem [24][17]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Oracle's Financial Performance - Oracle's FY2026 Q1 RPO surpassed expectations, driven by strong demand for AI computing infrastructure, with a notable increase in cloud contracts with leading AI companies [9][10]. - The cloud infrastructure revenue reached $3.3 billion, marking a 54% increase year-over-year, while cloud database services grew by 32% [10][11]. Section 2: AI Industry Chain Updates - Recent developments include Tesla's proposed $1 trillion compensation plan for Elon Musk, Microsoft's $17.4 billion GPU infrastructure contract with Nebius Group, and Haiguang Information's stock incentive plan [25][26][28]. - The report highlights the ongoing advancements in AI infrastructure and the strategic moves by major players in the industry [24]. Section 3: Market Performance Review - The computer sector saw a 3.37% increase in the second week of September 2025, with notable stock performances from companies like Chunzong Technology and Kaipu Cloud [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - Oracle has been upgraded to a buy with a target price of $410 per share due to unexpectedly strong bookings and a bullish forecast for the next 3 to 5 years [1][2]. Financial Performance - The recent quarter showed a significant increase in bookings, with $300 billion of new Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) added to the business, surpassing market expectations [3]. - Revenue and EPS estimates for FY28 have increased by 25% to 30%, indicating strong future growth potential [4]. Growth Projections - Oracle's consolidated revenue growth is expected to approach 50% in the coming years, which is notable for a company of its size [5]. - The cloud infrastructure business (OCI) is projected to grow from $18 billion in 2026 to $144 billion by 2030, reflecting a dramatic ramp-up in revenue [7]. Valuation Insights - Despite the recent share price increase of nearly 40%, Oracle's valuation remains comparable to Microsoft, trading at a mid-30s earnings multiple for FY28 [6]. - The forward-looking valuation for FY26 suggests continued revenue and earnings growth acceleration as new capacity comes online [9]. Market Position and Customer Base - Oracle is expected to convert its RPO into revenue effectively, supported by high-quality customers such as Meta, XAI, OpenAI, and Microsoft, which are well-funded and reliable [9][10]. - The company anticipates additional contracts and potential profitability increases as it approaches its upcoming AI world conference [5][10].