Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint The price of polyethylene has an upward expectation due to the support from the demand - side, especially with the arrival of consumption seasons. However, the supply - side pressure from the continuous release of new production capacity is hard to relieve, so the price rebound height is expected to be limited. Technically, the plastic main contract faces obvious pressure at the gap on the K - line chart, and it's difficult for the price to break through the levels of 7450 and 7650 [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 New Production Capacity and Output Growth - From Q4 2024 to H1 2025, the new ethylene cracking device investment is highly concentrated, increasing the domestic supply pressure, especially in low - pressure and linear polyethylene, intensifying homogeneous competition. As of now, 343 million tons of new polyethylene devices have been put into production in 2025 [1]. - In the first eight months of 2025, China's polyethylene maintenance loss was 323.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.03%. The output was 2068.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15%. The industry's operating rate has been around 75% since Q2. More devices are planned to be put into production later, mainly high - pressure and low - pressure, with limited linear production pressure, and most are scheduled for the end of the year [4]. - Multiple companies have new polyethylene device investment plans in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 663 million tons. The pressure on the general - purpose material market mainly comes from the first half of the year, and the output release in H1 still affects H2 [2]. 3.2 Demand in Traditional Peak Season - The operating rate of the plastic downstream industry has been lower year - on - year, and demand support has been insufficient. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the demand of most downstream products industries has increased, but it is still weaker than expected [7]. - In the agricultural film industry, demand is increasing, and the industry is in the peak production season. The operating rate will gradually reach the annual high, with a 20 - point increase space, and the demand will peak in early November. However, downstream factories mainly make rigid purchases [9]. - In the PE packaging film sector, supported by domestic and foreign holidays, orders are concentratedly released. Export orders for some products are increasing, and the demand for rigid products is expected to rise [9]. - In September, the PE pipe market is expected to shift from the off - season to the peak season, but the recovery of relevant industries is insufficient, and the demand recovery amplitude may be limited. After late September, demand is expected to improve [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish outlook for the plastics industry [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future outlook for plastics is weak, with a cautious and bearish stance. The plastics 2509 contract closed at 7,143 yuan/ton on April 18, down 109 yuan/ton from the previous week. Spot prices of plastics declined across the board. In the second quarter, the domestic PE market is expected to face significant supply pressure due to planned new capacity of 2.15 million tons. Downstream demand is generally weak, with a sharp decline in the agricultural film sector as the peak season ends, and mediocre demand in the packaging film and pipe sectors. Inventory remains neutral, with no obvious de - stocking trend and low willingness among downstream players to replenish inventory at low prices. However, tariffs may provide some support to market prices. It is expected that the plastics 2505 contract will fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic Weekly Market Review - On April 18, the plastics 2509 contract closed at 7,143 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton from the previous week. The market fluctuated at the bottom this week, and the trade war brought great uncertainty, intensifying market fluctuations. LLDPE's South China basis reached 694.65 yuan/ton, a 15.71% increase from the previous week, and the May - September spread was 168 yuan/ton (up 69). Spot prices of plastics declined across the board, with the LDPE average price at 9,166.67 yuan/ton, a 1.08% decrease from the previous week, the HDPE average price at 8,140.00 yuan/ton, a 0.88% decrease, and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China at 7,837.65 yuan/ton, a 0.19% decrease [4][8] 3.2 Key Data Tracking - Month Spread | Month Spread | April 18, 2025 (yuan/ton) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 - 5 | -230 | -48 | | 5 - 9 | 168 | 69 | | 9 - 1 | 62 | -21 | [15] 3.3 Key Data Tracking - Spot Price - Spot prices of various plastics products showed different degrees of decline. For example, the LDPE average price decreased by 1.08%, the HDPE average price decreased by 0.88%, and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China decreased by 0.19%. Specific prices and changes in different regions and product categories are detailed in the report [4][8][16] 3.4 Key Data Tracking - Cost - This week, WTI crude oil closed at $63.75 per barrel, up $2.27 from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $67.85 per barrel, up $3.26 from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,020 yuan/ton (down 20). It is expected that the crude oil market will maintain a low - level fluctuating trend, and the coal market price has slightly increased [19] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Profit - The profit of oil - based PE was - 33 yuan/ton, down 249 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 1,237 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous week. It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE and coal - based PE will run weakly [22] 3.6 Key Data Tracking - Supply - This week, the operating rate of China's polyethylene production was 83.81%, up 0.17 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly polyethylene output was 633,500 tons, a 0.88% increase from the previous week. The maintenance loss this week was 91,900 tons, down 3,900 tons from the previous week. Some enterprises' devices are under maintenance, and there are many planned new capacity projects in 2025 [25][27] 3.7 Key Data Tracking - 2025 Production Plan - Many enterprises have new production capacity plans in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 5.43 million tons. Some projects have already started production, some are in the process of starting up, and others are scheduled to start at different times throughout the year [27] 3.8 Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics - Several enterprises carried out device maintenance this week, such as Baolai LyondellBasell's HDPE device from April 14 to April 20, and Daqing Petrochemical's LLDPE device which stopped on April 16 with an undetermined restart time [28] 3.9 Key Data Tracking - Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 30.09%, down 7.45% from the previous week; the operating rate of PE packaging film was 47.56%, down 0.51% from the previous week; and the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.50%, down 0.17% from the previous week. The peak season of agricultural film is coming to an end, with an expected further decline, and the operating performance of packaging film and pipes is mediocre due to weak downstream demand [29] 3.10 Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio - Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 36.1%, which is 2% different from the annual average level. The ratio of low - pressure pipes shows a significant difference from the annual average data, currently accounting for 6%, a 4.2% difference from the annual average [34] 3.11 Key Data Tracking - Inventory - This week, the social inventory of plastics enterprises was 616,000 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [36] 3.12 Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts - This week, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 1,565 lots, an increase of 939 lots from the previous week [44]