发布日期：2026年2月5日 2月5日，新增广东石化全密度1线等检修装置，塑料开工率下跌至90.5%左右，目前开工率处于 中性偏高水平。截至1月30日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.77个百分点至37.76%，农膜订单和农膜 原料库存小幅减少，处于近年同期中性水平，包装膜订单同样小幅减少，整体PE下游开工率仍处于 近年农历同期偏低位水平。1月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端， 伊朗地缘局势反复，美国降低对印度加征的关税，印度炼厂或将增加中东和美洲地区的原油采购， 原油价格反弹。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA 在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有下降。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓， 北方需求减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞，农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，农膜和包装膜开 工率下降，预计后续下游开工率继续下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限，终端工厂刚需采购为主。 塑料供需格局改善有限，1月底现货跟进有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，上游石化库存偏低，目前基 差有所修复，预计塑料区间震荡。由于塑料近日有新增产能投产，开 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年2月4日 【行情分析】 2月4日，新增中化泉州HDPE等检修装置，塑料开工率下跌至91%左右，目前开工率处于中性偏高 水平。截至1月30日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.77个百分点至37.76%，农膜订单和农膜原料库存 小幅减少，处于近年同期中性水平，包装膜订单同样小幅减少，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历 同期偏低位水平。1月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，伊朗地缘 局势反复，美国降低对印度加征的关税，印度炼厂或将增加中东和美洲地区的原油采购，原油价格 反弹。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1 月投产。近期塑料开工率小幅上升。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求 减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞，农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，农膜和包装膜开工率下降， 预计后续下游开工率继续下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限，终端工厂刚需采购为主。塑料供需 格局改善有限，1月底现货跟进有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，上游石化库存偏低，目前基差有所修 复 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡运行 期货方面： 塑料2605合约增仓震荡运行，最低价6811元/吨，最高价6937元/吨，最终收盘于6865元/ 吨，在60日均线上方，跌幅1.15%。持仓量增加15259手至511685手。 现货方面： PE现货市场多数下跌，涨跌幅在-200至+0元/吨之间，LLDPE报6700-7170元/吨，LDPE报 8600-9180元/吨，HDPE报6810-8090元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 发布日期：2026年2月3日 【行情分析】 2月3日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在92%左右，目前开工率处于中性偏高水平。截至 1月30日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.77个百分点至37.76%，农膜订单和农膜原料库存小幅减少， 处于近年同期中性水平，包装膜订单同样小幅减少，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历同期偏低位 水平。1月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，地缘局势降温，本次 寒潮转弱，原油价格大幅下跌。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, Daotong Technology, and others [10]. Core Views - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as p-nitrochlorobenzene (up 27.91%) and LLDPE (up 24.72%), while products like natural gas and LDPE saw substantial declines [6][18]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of fluctuating international oil prices [6][19]. - The report anticipates that international oil prices will stabilize around $65 per barrel in 2026, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of price declines [19]. Summary by Sections Product Price Movements - Notable price increases this week include p-nitrochlorobenzene (27.91%), LLDPE (24.72%), and liquid chlorine (20.90) [18]. - Conversely, significant declines were observed in natural gas (-22.34%) and LDPE (-18.02%) [5][21]. Industry Performance - The chemical industry remains in a weak position overall, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21]. - Specific sectors like the glyphosate industry are showing signs of potential recovery, with decreasing inventories and rising prices, suggesting a possible entry into a favorable cycle [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Ruifeng New Materials and Baofeng Energy [21]. - It emphasizes the importance of domestic chemical fertilizer and pesticide sectors, which are expected to maintain stable demand due to self-sufficiency [21]. - The report also highlights the benefits for major oil companies like Sinopec, which are expected to gain from lower raw material costs due to declining oil prices [21].

1月30日，万华化学发布公告称，公司拟以自有资金及自筹资金对全资子公司万华烯烃公司进行增资， 增资总额合计190.86亿元。 根据公告，此次增资将采用资产和债权共同出资。万华化学将其持有的价值约145.86亿元的120万吨乙 烯一体化相关资产，以及持有的万华烯烃公司45亿元债权，一并注入万华烯烃公司。 其中，10亿元计入注册资本，剩余180.86亿元则计入资本公积。增资完成后，万华烯烃公司的注册资本 将从30亿元升至40亿元，仍为万华化学的全资子公司。 这一现象的出现，主要是2025年上半年石化行业烯烃等产品产能集中释放，导致供需格局失衡，油价持 续走低造成石化产品价格承压。 为应对行业压力，万华化学还在推进产能改造，其烟台产业园乙烯一期装置原料改造已全部完成，实现 了乙烷、丙烷两种原料可以切换的柔性进料方式，原料结构得到优化，成本有望下降。 整体来看，受化工行业周期影响，2025年前三季度万华化学实现营收1442亿元，同比下降2.29%；归母 净利润为91.57亿元，同比下降17.45%。不过，化工行业正逐步走出周期低谷，其单季业绩已出现回 升。第三季度实现营收为533亿元，同比增长5.52%；归母净利润为 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡运行 【行情分析】 1月30日，茂名石化HDPE等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至90%左右，目前开工率处于中 性水平。截至1月30日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.77个百分点至37.76%，农膜订单和农膜原料库 存小幅减少，处于近年同期中性水平，包装膜订单同样小幅减少，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农 历同期偏低位水平。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，寒 冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。供应上， 新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑 料开工率略有上升。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜 生产基本停滞，农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，农膜和包装膜开工率下降，预计后续下游 开工率继续下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限，终端工厂刚需采购为主。低估值、寒冷天气及伊 朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，塑料短期跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是塑料供需格局改善 有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，塑料反弹 ...

目前万华化学持有的碳二产业资产为一套120万吨/年以乙烷+石脑油为原料的乙烯装置及配套的 LDPE 装置等相关资产，万华烯烃公司持有的资产为一套120万吨/年以乙烷为原料的乙烯装置及下游 PO/SM 装置、HDPE 装置、LLDPE 装置、PVC装置等相关资产。 增资后，万华烯烃公司注册资本将由30亿元增加至40亿元，仍然为万华化学的全资子公司。 格隆汇1月30日丨万华化学(600309.SH)公布，公司碳二产业快速发展，产业规模不断增大，为提升公司 碳二产业资产的运营管控效率，万华化学拟将其持有的120万吨乙烯一体化相关资产计145.86亿元及其 持有的全资子公司万华化学集团(烟台)烯烃有限公司45亿元债权共计190.86亿元增资至万华烯烃公司， 实现万华化学碳二产业在同一法人主体万华烯烃公司集中运营管控，进一步提升公司碳二产业的竞争 力，本次增资中10亿元人民币计入注册资本，180.86亿元计入资本公积。 ...

【行情分析】 1月28日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月 23日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.4个百分点至39.53%，农膜订单基本稳定，处于近年同期中性水 平，农膜原料库存基本稳定，包装膜订单小幅回升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历同期偏低位 水平。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，寒冷天气推动柴 油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。供应上，新增产能50万 吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有 下降。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞， 农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，预计后续下游开工率下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限， 终端工厂刚需采购为主。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，塑料短期 跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是塑料供需格局改善有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，塑料反弹可持续 性谨慎对待。由于塑料近日有新增产能投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On January 23, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a moderately high level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points week-on-week to 39.53%, still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price dropped. New production capacity was put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate decreased slightly. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, and plastic will fluctuate in a range. The L-PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 23, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points week-on-week to 39.53%. The agricultural film orders were basically stable, and the raw material inventory was basically stable. The packaging film orders increased slightly. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price dropped due to increased inventory. New production capacity was put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate decreased slightly. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, and the terminal demand has decreased. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, and plastic will fluctuate in a range. The L-PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a closing price of 6865 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.87%. The position increased by 3532 lots to 519056 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets rose, with a price change range of -0 to +150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6720 - 6970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8600 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6860 - 8140 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 23, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points week-on-week to 39.53%, still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The agricultural film orders were basically stable, and the raw material inventory was basically stable. The packaging film orders increased slightly [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons week-on-week to 500,000 tons, 35,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January, but average recently. The current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $65/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week-on-week at $710/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week-on-week at $690/ton [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On January 21, 2026, the plastic maintenance devices changed little, with an operating rate of about 91%, at a moderately high level. The downstream PE operating rate dropped to 40.93%, and the agricultural film orders continued to decline. The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. With the easing of the Iran situation, the crude oil price declined. New plastic production capacity was put into operation recently, and it is expected that the plastic will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the L - PP spread will decline [1]. - The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated, closing at 6666 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase, and the open interest increased to 504,362 lots [2]. - The PE spot market mostly declined, with LLDPE at 6520 - 6870 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8450 - 9180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6840 - 8140 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The plastic operating rate remained at about 91%, and the downstream PE operating rate dropped by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The Iran situation eased, and the crude oil price declined. New production capacity was put into operation, and the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L - PP spread expected to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated, closing at 6666 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase, and the open interest increased by 9150 lots to 504,362 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market mostly declined, with LLDPE at 6520 - 6870 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8450 - 9180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6840 - 8140 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 21, the plastic operating rate remained at about 91%, at a moderately high level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 16, the downstream PE operating rate dropped by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, the agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream PE operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory on Wednesday decreased by 10,000 tons to 550,000 tons, higher than the same period last year, and was at a neutral level in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $64/barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $710/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price dropped by $10/ton to $690/ton [4].