发布日期：2026年1月9日 【行情分析】 【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 塑料2605合约增仓震荡上行，最低价6602元/吨，最高价6685元/吨，最终收盘于6674元/ 吨，在60日均线下方，涨幅0.17%。持仓量减少14010手至491289手。 现货方面： PE现货市场涨跌互现，涨跌幅在-100至+100元/吨之间，LLDPE报6500-6770元/吨，LDPE报 8650-9110元/吨，HDPE报6750-8340元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 1月9日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在87%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月9 日当周，元旦节后，PE下游开工率环比上升0.06个百分点至41.21%，农膜逐步退出旺季，农膜订单继 续下降，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续下降，包装膜订单小幅上升，整体PE下游开工 率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。原 油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前该国关键石油设施未受损， 且其产量仅占全球供应 ...

塑料日报：震荡运行 【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2026年1月8日 【行情分析】 1月8日，新增福建联合全密度2线、浙江石化LDPE 二期等检修装置，塑料开工率下降至87%左右， 目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月2日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.68个百分点至41.15%，农膜逐 步退出旺季，农膜订单继续下降，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续下降，包装膜订单小 幅上升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处 于近年同期中性水平。原油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前 该国关键石油设施未受损，且其产量仅占全球供应不足1%，特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万 至5000万桶石油，原油价格依然疲软。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE在10 月投产，70万吨/年的中石油广西石化11月投产，近日50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）投产。近期塑料 开工率略有下降。农膜逐步退出旺季，订单持续下降，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少， 北方棚膜生产基本停滞，农膜价格继续下跌，预计后续下游开工率下降。下游企业采购意愿不足， 刚 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月7日 【行情分析】 1月7日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在88%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月2 日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.68个百分点至41.15%，农膜逐步退出旺季，农膜订单继续下降，处 于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续下降，包装膜订单小幅上升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近 年同期偏低位水平。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。原油供应过剩 之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前该国关键石油设施未受损，且其产量 仅占全球供应不足1%，特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，原油价格依然疲软。 供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE在10月投产，70万吨/年的中石油广西石化11 月投产，近日50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）成功产出合格产品。近期塑料开工率略有下降。农膜逐步 退出旺季，订单持续下降，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞，农 膜价格继续下跌，预计后续下游开工率下降。下游企业采购意愿不足，刚需为主，部分行业进入淡 季，贸 ...

聚烯烃月报 | 2026-01-04 下游开工延续走低，关注装置检修兑现情况 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价6472元/吨（+11），PP主力合约收盘价6348元/吨（+27），LL华北现货6300元/ 吨（+0），LL华东现货6450元/吨（+50），PP华东现货6160元/吨（+0），LL华北基差-172元/吨（+9），LL华东基差 -72元/吨（-11）， PP华东基差-188元/吨（-17）。 上游供应方面，PE上月产量301万吨（+12），LLDPE产量143万吨（+9），PE开工率84%（+0%）；PP上月产量356 万吨（+9），PP开工率77%（-3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润64.5元/吨（+78.3），PP油制生产利润-415.5元/吨（+78.3），PDH制PP生产利润-828.8 元/吨（-35.7）。 进出口方面，PE11月进口量106万吨（+5），11月出口量9万吨（+0）；PP11月进口量30万吨（+3），11月出口量26 万吨（+2）。LL进口利润99.3元/吨（-2.5），PP进口利润-351.2元/吨（+7.4），PP出口利润-22.4美元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 31, 2025, the restart of maintenance devices at Maoming Petrochemical led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, and the overall plastics supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. It is expected that the upward space for plastics in the near term is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The restart of Maoming Petrochemical's LDPE and other maintenance devices on December 31 increased the plastics operating rate to around 87%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, with the agricultural film gradually exiting the peak season, orders declining, and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level, and the cost - end crude oil price has limited rebound. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will further decline. The overall plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to fall [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract showed a position - reducing and oscillating operation, closing at 6472 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.23%. The position decreased by 11,359 lots to 501,425 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 31, the restart of maintenance devices at Maoming Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to around 87%, at a neutral level. - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 41.83% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film gradually exited the peak season, orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday increased by 30,000 tons to 630,000 tons compared to the previous day, 110,000 tons higher than the same period last year, at a relatively high level in recent years. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $62 per barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat [4].

来源：中国能源网 以华北市场为例，2025年华北LLDPE主流6100-9000元/吨，低点出现在12月23日，高点在1月1日，华北 LDPE普通膜料主流7800-10550元/吨，低点出现在12月26日，高点在1月1日，HDPE以低熔指注塑为 例，全年价格6550-7950元/吨，低点出现在12月24日，高点在6月末。 2025年国内PE市场持续下行，连刷新低点，其中LLDPE跌幅最大，年终较年初价格跌29.76%，其次是 LDPE，年终较年初跌22.35%，HDPE跌幅相对较小，年终较年初跌13.45%，聚乙烯综合跌幅20.28%。 期间"高供应、弱需求、高库存"矛盾深刻，市场信心严重缺失，LLDPE期货持续疲软，现货市场全年成 交低迷，导致国内上游生产企业纷纷降价促进成交，以期稳定市场份额，减缓资金压力。2025年中美贸 易关系恶化导致需求雪上加霜，全年需求低迷，参与操守以规避风险为主。市场可分为两个阶段，一， 上半年行情下行但伴随小幅反弹。上半年国内PE产能继续扩张，加上2024年四季度扩张产能产量不断 释放，同时受中美贸易摩擦等因素影响，需求提升远不及预期，市场在供需矛盾加大下持续下行。5月 12日 ...

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, with limited upside potential for plastics in the near term due to new capacity additions and the exit of the agricultural film peak season. The L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Group 3 - Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25, the restart of maintenance devices at Yangzi Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to about 87.5%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%, with agricultural film orders and raw material inventory decreasing. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical de - stocking has accelerated, but inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years. With an oversupply of crude oil and geopolitical tensions, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation recently. The overall sentiment of bulk commodities has improved, but the supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and some spot prices are weak [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6356 yuan/ton, the highest was 6446 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6390 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.63%. The position increased by 2047 lots to 542399 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price changes between - 50 and + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7790 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 25, the restart of maintenance devices at Yangzi Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to about 87.5%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 80,000 tons to 610,000 tons, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical de - stocking has accelerated, but inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton [4].

CHILISMAN CHANNER CONTRACTOR COLLECTION CONSULTION CONSULTION CONSULTION CONTRACT . Wa a | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | ITC国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | PE数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询证:Z0015946 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | | 2025/12/25 从业资格证:F3054270 | | | 指标 | 2025/12/23 2025/12/24 | | 变动值 | 现货综述 | | | Brent | 62. 07 | 62. 38 | 0. 31 p | | | | 动力煤 | 470 | 470 | 0 | | | | 乙烷(CFR中国) | 3080 | 3100 | 20 | | | 上游 | ○乙烯(进口) | 745× | 745 | 0 | | | | 乙烯(山东) | 6150 | 6150 | 0 | | | | 乙 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 23, 2025, the restart of maintenance devices such as Tianjin Petrochemical's LLDPE led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level The PE downstream operating rate decreased to 42.45%, and the overall is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years The plastics supply has increased due to new capacity, while the downstream demand is weak The plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is still falling, so it is expected that the plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near future Also, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 23, Tianjin Petrochemical's LLDPE and other maintenance devices restarted, increasing the plastics operating rate to 86.5%, and the operating rate is at a neutral level As of the week of December 19, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%, with the agricultural film gradually exiting the peak season, orders decreasing, and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years Petrochemical de - stocking is slow, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years Due to oversupply of crude oil and geopolitical tensions, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has increased slightly The agricultural film is out of the peak season, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decline The downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient, and traders are cautious about the future market, so it is expected that the plastics will fluctuate weakly and the L - PP spread will decline [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated, closing at 6296 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.06% The trading volume decreased by 24483 lots to 581559 lots [2] - Spot: Most PE spot prices in the market declined, with a range of - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton LLDPE was reported at 6150 - 6420 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7750 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7900 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 23, the restart of Tianjin Petrochemical's LLDPE and other maintenance devices increased the plastics operating rate to around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of December 19, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%, with the agricultural film gradually exiting the peak season, orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons, which is 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year Petrochemical de - stocking is slow, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $61/barrel, and the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The polyolefin price trend was divided this week. The continuous decline in the PE agricultural film operating rate led the L main contract to seek the bottom unilaterally. The PP operating rate was decent, and the slight increase in the BOPP operating rate supported the PP main contract price. Overall, the fundamental situation remained one of strong supply and weak demand, and there was significant upward pressure on polyolefins as a whole. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly, with attention on the 6300 support level. The PP main contract will fluctuate within a range, with attention on the 6200 support level. The LP spread is expected to narrow [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic - **Weekly Market Review**: On December 19, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6320 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.56%. The average price of LDPE was 8550 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 1.54%. The average price of HDPE was 7012.5 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.60%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6605 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.42%. The LLDPE South China basis was 285 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.75%. The 1 - 5 month spread was -48 yuan/ton (-38) [12]. - **Key Data Tracking - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -48 yuan/ton (-38), the 5 - 9 month spread was -47 yuan/ton (-14), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 95 yuan/ton (52) [18]. - **Key Data Tracking - Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline [20][21]. - **Key Data Tracking - Cost**: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.54 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.99 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.12 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.10 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (-30) [23]. - **Key Data Tracking - Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was -279 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton from the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was -13 yuan/ton, an increase of 163 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - **Key Data Tracking - Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 83.86%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly polyethylene output was 67.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%. The maintenance loss this week was 9.86 tons, an increase of 0.87 tons from the previous week [32]. - **Key Data Tracking - 2025 Commissioning Plan**: A total of 543 tons of new polyethylene production capacity was planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already commissioned and some scheduled for December 2025 [35]. - **Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics**: Many polyethylene production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [37]. - **Key Data Tracking - Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films was 45.18%, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging films was 48.96%, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 31.00%, unchanged from the previous weekend [39]. - **Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear films was the highest, accounting for 37.3%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data was significant, currently accounting for 8.6%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level [42]. - **Key Data Tracking - Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 46.87 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.67% [45]. - **Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11332 lots, unchanged from the previous week [48]. PP - **Weekly Market Review**: On December 19, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83% [52]. - **Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various PP products showed different degrees of decline [54][56]. - **Key Data Tracking - Basis**: On December 19, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi was 6253.33 yuan/ton (-0%). The PP basis was 40 yuan/ton (-84), and the 1 - 5 month spread was -81 yuan/ton (-42) [58]. - **Key Data Tracking - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -81 yuan/ton (-42), the 5 - 9 month spread was -27 yuan/ton (16), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 108 yuan/ton (26) [63]. - **Key Data Tracking - Cost**: The cost situation was the same as that of plastic, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreasing and anthracite price at the Yangtze River port also decreasing [68]. - **Key Data Tracking - Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was -522.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 82.14 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was -576.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.40 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - **Key Data Tracking - Supply**: This week, the operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China was 79.40%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 81.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26%. The weekly output of PP powder was 6.66 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.72% [75]. - **Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [78]. - **Key Data Tracking - Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 53.80% (-0.19). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.00% (-0.06%), the operating rate of BOPP was 63.24% (+0.31%), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.50% (-0.05%), and the operating rate of pipes was 42.07% (-0.23%) [80]. - **Key Data Tracking - Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was -318.03 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4.63 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was -1.18 US dollars per ton, an increase of 1.26 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week [86]. - **Key Data Tracking - Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 53.78 tons (+0.13%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 1.73% week - on - week; the inventory of traders decreased by 4.34% week - on - week; and the port inventory decreased by 1.03% week - on - week. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 1012.13 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.59%. The raw material inventory of BOPP was 10.12 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.91% [89][95]. - **Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 10934 lots, a decrease of 4813 lots from the previous week [99].