1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - In July, influenced by macro - policies such as "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", black - series coking coal and coke led the rise. Stable - economy policies from meetings boosted the polyolefin futures. After the digestion of positive factors, prices returned to fundamental trading. With multiple new plants coming into operation in July and more to come, the supply - side pressure is high. Currently in the maintenance season, the pressure from new capacity expansion is temporarily offset. OPEC+ production - increase plans dragged down oil prices, weakening cost - side support. Downstream demand is in the seasonal off - season, with limited highlights expected. Mid - and upstream inventories are slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher compared to the same period [1][2]. - Domestic new plants: Jilin Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton/year HDPE plant and Yulong Petrochemical's 500,000 - ton/year PP plant were successfully put into operation in July. Many other plants are waiting to start production, indicating continuous growth in domestic polyolefin new - plant capacity. For domestic existing plants, PE maintenance losses are at a high level year - on - year, some PDH plants have restarted, and PDH - made PP plant maintenance has decreased. Overseas, no new plants were put into operation in July, and overseas under - construction plants face many uncertainties and delays may be common. Overseas PE and PP operating rates have decreased slightly. The LLDPE import window is closed, and China's PE and PP imports are continuously decreasing [2]. - In terms of inventory and demand, downstream demand for polyolefins remains in the seasonal off - season, with factories mainly making rigid purchases. The operating rate of PE's downstream agricultural film has a slight rebound, while the demand for packaging film is weak. The operating rate of PP's downstream woven products fluctuates slightly. The demand side is expected to remain weak. Mid - and upstream polyolefin inventories are slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher year - on - year [2]. 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - delivery: L09 - L01 reverse spread, PP09 - PP01 reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: Narrow the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 [3] 4. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report provides charts of the main contract trends, basis, and inter - delivery spreads of LL and PP, including LL North China - main contract basis, L1 - L5, L5 - L9, L9 - L1 for LL, and PP East China - main contract basis, PP1 - PP5, PP5 - PP9, PP9 - PP1 for PP [15]. 4.2 Polyolefin Production Plan - Domestic: Multiple plants have been put into operation in 2025, and many are waiting to start production, such as ExxonMobil Huizhou's 500,000 - ton/year LDPE plant. The total planned production capacity of new domestic plants is large, indicating continuous growth in domestic supply [18][20]. - Overseas: Some plants were put into operation in 2025, and many are in the un - started state. Overseas under - construction plants face many uncertainties, and delays may be common [22]. 4.3 Polyolefin Maintenance Plan - PE: The maintenance season of PE plants has ended, and maintenance losses have increased. The report shows historical maintenance data of PE, oil - based PE, coal - based PE, and alkane - based PE [23][36]. - PP: PP plant maintenance losses fluctuate slightly, and the maintenance volume of PDH - made PP plants is still at a high level [36]. 4.4 Polyolefin Monthly Output - In June, domestic PE output was 2.555 million tons, a decrease of 49,000 tons from May. LLDPE output decreased by 44,000 tons, HDPE increased by 27,000 tons, and LDPE decreased by 33,000 tons. Domestic PP output was 3.165 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from May. PP fiber output increased by 12,000 tons, PP homopolymer decreased by 10,000 tons, and PP copolymer remained unchanged [47]. 4.5 Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE: The production profit of oil - based PE is - 130 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is 90.2%, an increase of 6.3% from last month. With the restart of maintenance plants, the operating rate is expected to increase [62]. - PP: The production profit of oil - based PP is - 522 yuan/ton, and that of PDH - made PP is 394 yuan/ton. The PDH - made PP operating rate is rising. The overall PP operating rate is 83.6%, a decrease of 0.6% from last month [62]. 4.6 Polyolefin Non - standard Price Spread and Operating Ratio - PE: The production ratio of LLDPE and HDPE has decreased, while that of LDPE has increased. The operating ratio of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE has changed accordingly. The non - standard price spreads between HD injection - LL and LDPE - LLDPE have different trends [69]. - PP: The production ratios of PP fiber and PP copolymer injection have decreased, while that of PP non - standard homopolymer injection has increased. The operating ratios of different PP products have also changed, and the non - standard price spread between PP low - melt copolymer and PP fiber has declined [69]. 4.7 Polyolefin Outer - market Price Spread and Import - Export Profit - LL: The import profit in East China is - 26 yuan/ton, and the export profit is - 69 US dollars/ton. The import window is closed, and China's PE imports are decreasing [85]. - PP: The import profit of PP fiber in East China is - 445 yuan/ton, and the export profit is - 26 US dollars/ton. China's PP imports and exports have decreased [85]. 4.8 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE: The operating rate of PE's downstream agricultural film is 27%, an increase of 10% from last month. The operating rate of PE's downstream packaging film is 51%, remaining unchanged from last month [109]. - PP: The operating rate of PP's downstream woven products is 41%, a decrease of 1% from last month. The operating rate of PP's downstream BOPP is 58%, a decrease of 1% from last month. The operating rate of PP's downstream injection molding remains unchanged [109]. 4.9 Polyolefin Downstream Inventory and Order Situation - PE: The raw - material inventory days of PE's downstream agricultural film are 8.1 days, remaining unchanged from last month. The order days are 2.8 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from last month. The raw - material inventory days of PE's downstream packaging film are 7.2 days, an increase of 0.1 days from last month. The order days are 8.1 days, an increase of 0.2 days from last month [115]. - PP: The raw - material inventory days of PP's downstream BOPP are 9.1 days, a decrease of 0.4 days from last month. The finished - product inventory days are 10.6 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from last month. The order days are 8.7 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last month. The raw - material inventory days of PP's downstream woven products are 6.7 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from last month. The finished - product inventory days are 6.1 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last month. The order days are 6.9 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from last month [115]. 4.10 Polyolefin Actual Inventory - The upstream petrochemical inventory is 750,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last month. As the downstream is still in the off - season in August, the inventory is expected to increase slightly [130].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for LLDPE is neutral, with a trend strength of 0, indicating neither a strong bullish nor bearish outlook [3][4]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, LLDPE is expected to trade in a range. The conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, leading to an expected retracement of the premium caused by polyethylene import risks. The spot market has weak high - price transactions, and the negative feedback from the demand side has affected the industry chain. Although geopolitical issues may fluctuate, the overall short - term trend is sideways [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The L2509 contract closed at 7271 yesterday, down 0.27%. The trading volume was 309,550, and the open interest decreased by 12,263 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the 09 contract was 9 yesterday, compared to 50 the previous day. The 09 - 01 contract spread was 47 yesterday, down from 51 the previous day [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the North China region, the price was 7280 yuan/ton yesterday, down from 7300 yuan/ton the previous day. In the East and South China regions, the prices remained unchanged at 7350 yuan/ton and 7430 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Spot Market News - LLDPE market prices partially declined, with a price range of 20 - 110 yuan/ton. The futures market opened lower and traded weakly, causing cautious market sentiment. Petrochemical companies lowered some ex - factory prices, and traders followed suit. Terminal buyers showed low enthusiasm and a cautious purchasing attitude [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Macro - factors**: The easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel is expected to lead to a retracement of the premium caused by polyethylene import risks. The weak high - price transactions in the spot market and the continuous weakening of the basis have led to negative feedback in the industry chain due to weak demand. However, geopolitical issues may still fluctuate [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: In the 09 contract of 2025, the expected new production capacity of domestic PE plants is 2.05 million tons, resulting in significant supply pressure. Although there are many maintenance activities in June, it is not enough to change the high - production pattern. On the demand side, the shed film industry is in the traditional off - season, with weak market demand and low orders. Most enterprises only maintain phased production. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate has decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous period. Downstream factories have phased low - price restocking, but the continuous restocking strength is insufficient [2]. - **Future Considerations**: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene. Due to the continuous decline in HDPE inventory in the first half of the year and the relatively low inventory year - on - year, the HD - LL price difference has widened, and there may be a switch in production capacity between the two. If full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE production, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated. Also, the price difference between LDPE and EVA products should be monitored [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The rebound of LLDPE is difficult to sustain, and it will be in a mid - term oscillatory market. Factors such as cost increase, supply - demand imbalance, and weak demand on the consumer side all contribute to this situation. There are also potential changes in supply due to capacity switching [1][2]. 3. Key Points from Each Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2509 was 7415, with a daily decline of - 0.38%, trading volume of 414,225, and an increase of 6149 in positions [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 09 - contract basis was - 15, compared to - 82 the previous day; the 09 - 01 contract spread was 68, compared to 63 the previous day [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the North China region, it was 7400 yuan/ton (7380 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 7450 yuan/ton; in the South China region, it was 7550 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot News The upward trend of LLDPE market prices slowed down, with price fluctuations between 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened high and closed low. Some prices of PetroChina and Sinopec were raised, but traders were more cautious, and downstream factories were hesitant to buy, resulting in poor transactions [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Macro - factors**: The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran led to a significant rebound in crude oil prices, raising the cost of polyethylene. In 2024, Iran's polyethylene imports were 133.02 million tons, accounting for 9.6% of the total imports, and there may be import disruptions in the future. However, the high - price transactions in the polyethylene spot market weakened, and the basis continued to decline [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: In the 2025 09 - contract, the expected new domestic PE plant capacity is 2.05 million tons, with high supply pressure. Although there are many maintenance activities in June, it cannot change the high - production pattern. The demand side is weak, with the greenhouse film industry in the off - season and low orders. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate decreased by - 0.7% compared to the previous period. Downstream factories' continuous restocking ability is insufficient [2]. - **Future Considerations**: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene, as well as the price difference between LDPE and EVA products. If full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE production, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE short-term outlook is bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, leading to a short-term volatile and bullish trend in polyethylene prices. Future polyethylene imports from Iran may be disrupted. The supply pressure of PE remains high in 2025, while the demand is in a downward trend. The demand from downstream factories is insufficient to drive significant destocking of polyethylene. Attention should be paid to the spread between low-pressure and linear polyethylene, and the possible capacity switch between HDPE and LLDPE may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of L2509 futures was 7462, with a daily increase of 0.96%, trading volume of 432,373, and an increase in open interest of 2116. The 09 contract basis was -82, and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 63. The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7380 yuan/ton, 7450 yuan/ton, and 8550 yuan/ton respectively [1] Spot News - The domestic PE market fluctuated upwards this week. Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, the crude oil price rose continuously. The market was bullish on LDPE, and its price increase was more significant than that of LLDPE and HDPE. Although the quotations of petrochemical companies and traders increased, the factory orders did not follow up well, and the market trading volume did not increase [1] Market Condition Analysis - In 2024, Iran's polyethylene imports accounted for 9.6% of the total imports. In 2025, the new production capacity of domestic PE plants on the 09 contract is expected to be 2.05 million tons. The maintenance in June is not enough to change the high - production pattern. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate has decreased by 0.5%. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate has decreased by 0.45%. The HD - LL spread has widened, and there is a possibility of capacity switch between HDPE and LLDPE. Some plants have already started to switch production [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, indicating a relatively bullish trend [4]

Report Overview - Report Date: April 29, 2025 - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Iran port incident caused supply disruptions. The import dependence of domestic polyethylene on Iranian sources is about 3.3% and decreasing annually. LDPE is more affected, with Iranian imports accounting for about 18% of total LDPE imports. The import interruption concern led to a significant increase in LDPE prices. However, the supply - side impact has weakened as the port resumed cargo import and export on the 27th. With high inventory and weakening demand peak season, it's difficult to support continuous upward movement of plastics. [4] - PP has a low import dependence and was less affected by this incident. Currently, upstream PP device maintenance is intensive, providing temporary support to the supply side. But downstream product exports are restricted and the peak season is fading, resulting in weakening demand and intensified supply - demand game, leading to narrow - range consolidation at low levels. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7063 | 7101 | 7122 | 7063 | 26 | 0.37% | 44163 | - 426 | | Plastic 2505 | 7348 | 7353 | 7383 | 7331 | - 14 | - 0.19% | 23834 | - 8998 | | Plastic 2509 | 7135 | 7164 | 7189 | 7133 | 16 | 0.22% | 482064 | - 10575 | | PP2601 | 7013 | 7054 | 7070 | 7013 | 19 | 0.27% | 16157 | 217 | | PP2505 | 7179 | 7195 | 7219 | 7178 | 3 | 0.04% | 19227 | - 4703 | | PP2509 | 7088 | 7112 | 7128 | 7085 | 10 | 0.14% | 397139 | - 9623 | [3] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory level of major producers today is 655,000 tons, a 5,000 - ton increase (0.77%) from the previous workday, compared to 710,000 tons in the same period last year. [5] - PP market prices fluctuated narrowly. The slight increase in PP futures boosted the sentiment of the spot market. Most producer factory prices remained stable, and the overall offers of traders changed little. Some low - stock grades tried to increase prices slightly, and downstream factories made low - price rigid - demand replenishments. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 7090 - 7320 yuan/ton, East China was 7200 - 7330 yuan/ton, and South China was 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton. [5] - Some PE market prices increased. In North China, individual linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure prices increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and individual low - pressure prices fluctuated by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure prices increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and low - pressure prices fluctuated by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, some high - pressure prices increased by 20 - 150 yuan/ton, and low - pressure and linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The LDPE market price continued to rise, and downstream buyers mainly made rigid - demand replenishments with actual transactions focusing on negotiation. The LLDPE price in North China was 7350 - 7650 yuan/ton, in East China was 7350 - 7950 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7550 - 7800 yuan/ton. [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish outlook for the plastics industry [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future outlook for plastics is weak, with a cautious and bearish stance. The plastics 2509 contract closed at 7,143 yuan/ton on April 18, down 109 yuan/ton from the previous week. Spot prices of plastics declined across the board. In the second quarter, the domestic PE market is expected to face significant supply pressure due to planned new capacity of 2.15 million tons. Downstream demand is generally weak, with a sharp decline in the agricultural film sector as the peak season ends, and mediocre demand in the packaging film and pipe sectors. Inventory remains neutral, with no obvious de - stocking trend and low willingness among downstream players to replenish inventory at low prices. However, tariffs may provide some support to market prices. It is expected that the plastics 2505 contract will fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic Weekly Market Review - On April 18, the plastics 2509 contract closed at 7,143 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton from the previous week. The market fluctuated at the bottom this week, and the trade war brought great uncertainty, intensifying market fluctuations. LLDPE's South China basis reached 694.65 yuan/ton, a 15.71% increase from the previous week, and the May - September spread was 168 yuan/ton (up 69). Spot prices of plastics declined across the board, with the LDPE average price at 9,166.67 yuan/ton, a 1.08% decrease from the previous week, the HDPE average price at 8,140.00 yuan/ton, a 0.88% decrease, and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China at 7,837.65 yuan/ton, a 0.19% decrease [4][8] 3.2 Key Data Tracking - Month Spread | Month Spread | April 18, 2025 (yuan/ton) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 - 5 | -230 | -48 | | 5 - 9 | 168 | 69 | | 9 - 1 | 62 | -21 | [15] 3.3 Key Data Tracking - Spot Price - Spot prices of various plastics products showed different degrees of decline. For example, the LDPE average price decreased by 1.08%, the HDPE average price decreased by 0.88%, and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China decreased by 0.19%. Specific prices and changes in different regions and product categories are detailed in the report [4][8][16] 3.4 Key Data Tracking - Cost - This week, WTI crude oil closed at $63.75 per barrel, up $2.27 from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $67.85 per barrel, up $3.26 from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,020 yuan/ton (down 20). It is expected that the crude oil market will maintain a low - level fluctuating trend, and the coal market price has slightly increased [19] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Profit - The profit of oil - based PE was - 33 yuan/ton, down 249 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 1,237 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous week. It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE and coal - based PE will run weakly [22] 3.6 Key Data Tracking - Supply - This week, the operating rate of China's polyethylene production was 83.81%, up 0.17 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly polyethylene output was 633,500 tons, a 0.88% increase from the previous week. The maintenance loss this week was 91,900 tons, down 3,900 tons from the previous week. Some enterprises' devices are under maintenance, and there are many planned new capacity projects in 2025 [25][27] 3.7 Key Data Tracking - 2025 Production Plan - Many enterprises have new production capacity plans in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 5.43 million tons. Some projects have already started production, some are in the process of starting up, and others are scheduled to start at different times throughout the year [27] 3.8 Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics - Several enterprises carried out device maintenance this week, such as Baolai LyondellBasell's HDPE device from April 14 to April 20, and Daqing Petrochemical's LLDPE device which stopped on April 16 with an undetermined restart time [28] 3.9 Key Data Tracking - Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 30.09%, down 7.45% from the previous week; the operating rate of PE packaging film was 47.56%, down 0.51% from the previous week; and the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.50%, down 0.17% from the previous week. The peak season of agricultural film is coming to an end, with an expected further decline, and the operating performance of packaging film and pipes is mediocre due to weak downstream demand [29] 3.10 Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio - Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 36.1%, which is 2% different from the annual average level. The ratio of low - pressure pipes shows a significant difference from the annual average data, currently accounting for 6%, a 4.2% difference from the annual average [34] 3.11 Key Data Tracking - Inventory - This week, the social inventory of plastics enterprises was 616,000 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [36] 3.12 Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts - This week, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 1,565 lots, an increase of 939 lots from the previous week [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][14]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 182.069 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.033 billion RMB, a decrease of 22.49% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 43.068 billion RMB, down 6.70% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.082 billion RMB, down 25.87% [2]. - The company’s various business segments are performing stably, with polyurethane sales revenue at 75.844 billion RMB and a gross margin of 26.15% in 2024 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Sales expenses increased by 20.25% year-on-year to 1.619 billion RMB in 2024, driven by the expansion of marketing and logistics efforts [3]. - Management expenses rose by 23.38% to 3.023 billion RMB, reflecting increased personnel costs [3]. - R&D expenses grew by 11.51% to 4.550 billion RMB, indicating ongoing technological upgrades [3]. - Asset impairment losses surged by 446.94% to 740 million RMB, primarily due to inventory write-downs and fixed asset impairments [3]. Segment Performance - The polyurethane segment is expected to expand its MDI capacity to 4.5 million tons per year by mid-2026, with a current capacity of 3.8 million tons [4]. - The petrochemical segment generated sales of 72.518 billion RMB in 2024, with a gross margin of 3.52% [4]. - The fine chemicals and new materials segment reported revenue of 28.273 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 12.78% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.970 billion RMB, 14.636 billion RMB, and 15.804 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.45, 4.66, and 5.03 RMB per share [5]. - The current market valuation corresponds to P/E ratios of 12.64X, 12.07X, and 11.18X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Monthly Report [1] - Date: April 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Core View: Maintenance season eases supply pressure, while seasonal demand weakening brews downward risks [5] 2. Market Review - In February, plastics were slightly stronger than PP. In March, the peak season started, downstream开工 increased, and the demand side was strengthened. Mid - to late - March saw high - level maintenance ease supply pressure, and the cost side rebounded. PP05 was supported at 7300, and LLDPE fluctuated around 7700 [11]. - In the spot market, LLDPE monthly average price was 8197 yuan/ton, down 1.35% month - on - month and 0.91% year - on - year. LDPE was 9976 yuan/ton, down 1.60% month - on - month and up 7.80% year - on - year. HDPE prices varied. PP in East China had a drawstring average of 7347.25 yuan/ton, down 0.72% month - on - month and 1.38% year - on - year, and copolymer was 7593.25 yuan/ton, down 0.94% month - on - month and 0.04% year - on - year [12]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Supply - In March 2025, PP production was estimated at 3.2833 million tons, up 11.52% month - on - month and 13.64% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to March was 9.5209 million tons, up 12.13% year - on - year. The PP plant operating rate was estimated at 79.66%, up 0.58 percentage points from February [12]. - PE production in March was estimated at 2.6685 million tons, up 7.06% month - on - month and 12.1% year - on - year. The operating rate was estimated at 81.97%, down 1.72 percentage points from last month. There were some PE plant overhauls in March [13]. - New polyolefin production capacities are planned to be put into operation in 2025, with many concentrated in the first half of the year [25][26]. 3.2 Import and Export - In February 2025, PE imports were 1.3252 million tons, up 9.43% month - on - month and 27% year - on - year. PP imports were 307,900 tons, up 15.93% month - on - month. From January to February, PP exports increased significantly, while PE exports decreased [27]. - In March, the import window was difficult to open, and PP exports were expected to remain high [27]. 3.3 Inventory - Currently in the destocking cycle, inventory pressure was prominent in the early stage and eased in the middle and late stages. By the end of March, PP producer inventory decreased by 6.13% month - on - month, and trader inventory decreased by 16.46% month - on - month. PE social sample average inventory decreased by 2.69% month - on - month and 17.53% year - on - year [36]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Coal: In the off - season, coal prices were under pressure, but there was support during the spring inspection in April [43]. - Crude oil: OPEC+ supply decreased, and US sanctions tightened supply. Oil prices were expected to bottom out and rebound [43]. - Oil - based production: Losses in oil - based PP decreased, and naphtha - based PE profits increased [44]. - Coal - based production: Profits of coal - based PP and PE increased [44]. - PDH - based production: Losses in PDH - based PP decreased [45]. 3.5 Downstream Demand - In March, downstream开工 continued to increase, but subsequent orders were insufficient. PP downstream开工 increased, but demand support was limited [51][54]. - From January to February 2025, the domestic sales market was good. After the national subsidy policy was extended, consumer sentiment was cautious. In April, the production of air - conditioners increased, while that of refrigerators decreased and that of washing machines slightly increased [62]. 4. Outlook - In the short term, it is a volatile market as maintenance eases supply pressure and cost support exists. In the long term, supply pressure and tariff impacts may drag down prices, so a short - selling strategy is recommended [7][70].