聚烯烃日报 | 2025-10-10 新装置投产，聚烯烃供应压力增加 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7077元/吨（-76），PP主力合约收盘价为6745元/吨（-107），LL华北现货为7000 元/吨（-120），LL华东现货为7140元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6750元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-77元/吨（-44），LL 华东基差为63元/吨（+76）， PP华东基差为5元/吨（+107）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为247.7元/吨（+72.5），PP油制生产利润为-382.3元/吨（+72.5），PDH制PP生产利 润为-224.0元/吨（+40.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-41.5元/吨（-0.1），PP进口利润为-517.2元/吨（-0.1），PP出口利润为13.4美元/吨（+0.0）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工 率为44.3%（+0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Petrochemical Industry Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry in China is facing challenges such as refining capacity nearing its limit and an oversupply of ethylene, necessitating adjustments in supply through anti-involution policies for high-quality development [1][2][4] - The overall profitability of the chemical industry is weak, with only a few resource-advantaged products performing well [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Regulatory Changes**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) will implement policies to stabilize growth in response to industry demand changes, particularly focusing on refining and ethylene sectors [2][4] - **Capacity Control**: New refining projects will require equivalent replacements, and approvals for small coal-to-methanol projects will become more stringent [1][4][7] - **Old Facility Elimination**: Small, outdated refining and ethylene facilities, especially those over 20 years old, will face elimination, with approximately 60 million tons of capacity targeted for adjustment [1][12][15] - **Investment Trends**: Investment in propane dehydrogenation units is decreasing due to poor profitability, while ethylene capacity is regulated to maintain reasonable industry profitability [5][6] Market Dynamics - **Global Market Opportunities**: As European and Korean petrochemical industries face supply tightness and shutdowns, China is positioned to fill market gaps through modern, large-scale production facilities [2][14][17] - **Export Potential**: China can leverage its cost advantages to export to Europe and Southeast Asia, especially as global ethylene markets are expected to rebalance with increasing demand [2][22] Challenges and Future Outlook - **Approval Challenges**: New projects must incorporate advanced materials technology to gain approval, complicating the project initiation process for many companies [8][9] - **Environmental Standards**: The government is emphasizing energy efficiency and environmental standards, which will impact the approval of new projects and the operation of existing facilities [10][13] - **Employment Impact**: The consolidation of small, inefficient facilities may lead to job losses, but the government plans to mitigate this through retraining and support measures [26][28] Strategic Directions - **Industry Consolidation**: The government aims to increase industry concentration by encouraging the integration of smaller firms into larger, more efficient operations [29][33] - **Focus on High-Quality Development**: The anti-involution policy seeks to reduce ineffective competition and promote larger, more capable enterprises to enhance international competitiveness [33][36] Conclusion - The petrochemical industry in China is undergoing significant structural changes driven by regulatory reforms, market dynamics, and a focus on sustainability. The future will likely see a consolidation of capacity, increased export opportunities, and a shift towards high-quality, environmentally friendly production practices.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Plastic - Supply - demand contradiction eases, with strong bottom support. The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional consumption season is coming, downstream demand shows signs of recovery, and supply pressure eases, but there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the LL main contract will fluctuate in the range of 7200 - 7500, and short - selling opportunities should be watched [8]. PP - There is significant trend pressure, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Although the supply side maintains high pressure, the downward space of the market is limited. It is expected that the PP main contract will fluctuate weakly, and the range of 6950 - 7300 should be watched [9]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On August 29, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7287 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63 yuan/ton or - 0.86%. The average price of LDPE was 9650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%; the average price of HDPE was 7982.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%; the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7591.18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.09%. The LLDPE South China basis was 304.18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 90.81%; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 68 yuan/ton (- 5), with the basis widening and the month spread narrowing [8][11]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil was at 64.01 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.35 US dollars/barrel from the previous month; Brent crude oil was at 67.46 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.32 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+30). The profit of oil - based PE was - 305 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton from the previous month; the profit of coal - based PE was 936 yuan/ton, a decrease of 206 yuan/ton from the previous month [8]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of polyethylene was 78.68%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points from the previous month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 61.78 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. The maintenance of petrochemical enterprise equipment remained at a high level, and the maintenance loss this week was 13.20 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons from the previous week [8][32]. - **Demand**: The overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 17.46%, an increase of 4.83% from the previous month; the PE packaging film start - up rate was 49.56%, an increase of 1.49% from the previous month; the PE pipe start - up rate was 30.17%, an increase of 1.34% from the previous month [8][39]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.20 tons, an increase of 0.36 tons or 0.64% from the end of last month [8]. Main Operating Logic - The traditional consumption season is coming, downstream demand recovers, and supply pressure eases. However, due to the large amount of production capacity to be put into operation in the second half of the year, there is still resistance to upward breakthrough. The short - term supply - demand contradiction eases, which strongly supports the market [8]. Key Points of Attention - Downstream demand, Fed rate cuts, Sino - US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [8]. PP Market Changes - On August 29, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6974 yuan/ton, a decrease of 144 yuan/ton from the previous month [9][53]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil was at 64.01 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.35 US dollars/barrel from the previous month; Brent crude oil was at 67.46 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.32 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+30). The profit of oil - based PP was - 327.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.90 yuan/ton from the previous month; the profit of coal - based PP was 364.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 212.60 yuan/ton from the previous month [9][70]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 80.00%, an increase of 3.06 percentage points from the previous month. The weekly output of PP pellets was 80.88 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.86%; the weekly output of PP powder was 7.39 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.29% [9][77]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate was 49.74% (+1.37). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 42.30% (-1.20), the start - up rate of BOPP was 60.40% (+0.40%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 57.44% (+1.64%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.37% (+0.20%) [9][83]. - **Inventory**: The domestic PP inventory was 53.85 tons (-5.91%); the inventory of two major oil companies decreased by 12.93% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 1.81% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 2.73% month - on - month [9][92]. Main Operating Logic - The weekly output of PP has increased again, and the supply side remains loose. Although downstream demand is still weak, there is an expectation of an increase in start - up due to the consumption season and low prices. The downward space of the market is limited [9]. Key Points of Attention - Downstream demand, Fed rate cuts, Sino - US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [9].

Summary of Conference Call on Chemicals Industry Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the chemicals industry, particularly in relation to the proposed anti-involution policies in China aimed at addressing chronic oversupply in the petrochemical sector [1][3][8]. Key Points 1. **China's Anti-Involution Policies**: - The proposed policies are viewed as a good intention to tackle the oversupply issue in the petrochemical sector, but there are concerns regarding the execution and effectiveness of these measures [3][8]. - Analysts suggest that prohibiting new capacities is the most effective way to address the structural oversupply [3]. 2. **Market Reactions**: - Saudi petrochemical share prices have increased by 13-23% following news of the anti-involution policies, although chemical prices in China and Northeast Asia have not shown similar recovery [4][8]. - The market remains cautious, with many investors adopting a "wait and see" approach until tangible changes occur [15]. 3. **Current Supply-Demand Dynamics**: - The fundamentals of the petrochemical market remain weak, characterized by a significant supply overhang and lack of demand recovery [4][10]. - Spot prices for key chemicals such as HDPE, LDPE, and PP have remained flat compared to July, with only MEG expected to see a modest price increase of 3% [4]. 4. **Capacity Management**: - The potential closure of older capacities in China could theoretically reduce global PE/PP capacities by 3.6-5.1%, but the impact on industry utilization rates is expected to be minimal and diminish over time as new capacities come online [10]. - Local governments in China are required to submit assessments of aging petrochemical facilities, but complexities in execution may hinder effective capacity management [11]. 5. **Investor Sentiment**: - There is a mixed sentiment among investors; while some view the news as a positive step, the majority remain skeptical due to the persistent overcapacity issues [15][16]. - Corporates are cautious about over-extrapolating the potential impact of the anti-involution policies and are not incorporating these changes into their internal forecasts [8][15]. 6. **International Developments**: - Similar capacity reduction plans have been announced in Korea, where the government aims to cut 2.7-3.7 million tons of NCC capacity, representing 29% of total domestic capacity [16]. - However, new capacity additions may offset the impact of these closures, raising questions about the effectiveness of such measures [16]. Additional Insights - Companies such as Borouge, Orlen, SABIC, and Sipchem have expressed cautious optimism regarding the potential for market improvement due to capacity closures, but they also highlight the ongoing challenges posed by oversupply [17]. - The overall sentiment in the petrochemical market remains cautious, with many stakeholders awaiting concrete actions and results from the proposed policies before making significant investment decisions [15][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - In July, influenced by macro - policies such as "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", black - series coking coal and coke led the rise. Stable - economy policies from meetings boosted the polyolefin futures. After the digestion of positive factors, prices returned to fundamental trading. With multiple new plants coming into operation in July and more to come, the supply - side pressure is high. Currently in the maintenance season, the pressure from new capacity expansion is temporarily offset. OPEC+ production - increase plans dragged down oil prices, weakening cost - side support. Downstream demand is in the seasonal off - season, with limited highlights expected. Mid - and upstream inventories are slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher compared to the same period [1][2]. - Domestic new plants: Jilin Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton/year HDPE plant and Yulong Petrochemical's 500,000 - ton/year PP plant were successfully put into operation in July. Many other plants are waiting to start production, indicating continuous growth in domestic polyolefin new - plant capacity. For domestic existing plants, PE maintenance losses are at a high level year - on - year, some PDH plants have restarted, and PDH - made PP plant maintenance has decreased. Overseas, no new plants were put into operation in July, and overseas under - construction plants face many uncertainties and delays may be common. Overseas PE and PP operating rates have decreased slightly. The LLDPE import window is closed, and China's PE and PP imports are continuously decreasing [2]. - In terms of inventory and demand, downstream demand for polyolefins remains in the seasonal off - season, with factories mainly making rigid purchases. The operating rate of PE's downstream agricultural film has a slight rebound, while the demand for packaging film is weak. The operating rate of PP's downstream woven products fluctuates slightly. The demand side is expected to remain weak. Mid - and upstream polyolefin inventories are slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher year - on - year [2]. 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - delivery: L09 - L01 reverse spread, PP09 - PP01 reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: Narrow the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 [3] 4. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report provides charts of the main contract trends, basis, and inter - delivery spreads of LL and PP, including LL North China - main contract basis, L1 - L5, L5 - L9, L9 - L1 for LL, and PP East China - main contract basis, PP1 - PP5, PP5 - PP9, PP9 - PP1 for PP [15]. 4.2 Polyolefin Production Plan - Domestic: Multiple plants have been put into operation in 2025, and many are waiting to start production, such as ExxonMobil Huizhou's 500,000 - ton/year LDPE plant. The total planned production capacity of new domestic plants is large, indicating continuous growth in domestic supply [18][20]. - Overseas: Some plants were put into operation in 2025, and many are in the un - started state. Overseas under - construction plants face many uncertainties, and delays may be common [22]. 4.3 Polyolefin Maintenance Plan - PE: The maintenance season of PE plants has ended, and maintenance losses have increased. The report shows historical maintenance data of PE, oil - based PE, coal - based PE, and alkane - based PE [23][36]. - PP: PP plant maintenance losses fluctuate slightly, and the maintenance volume of PDH - made PP plants is still at a high level [36]. 4.4 Polyolefin Monthly Output - In June, domestic PE output was 2.555 million tons, a decrease of 49,000 tons from May. LLDPE output decreased by 44,000 tons, HDPE increased by 27,000 tons, and LDPE decreased by 33,000 tons. Domestic PP output was 3.165 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from May. PP fiber output increased by 12,000 tons, PP homopolymer decreased by 10,000 tons, and PP copolymer remained unchanged [47]. 4.5 Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE: The production profit of oil - based PE is - 130 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is 90.2%, an increase of 6.3% from last month. With the restart of maintenance plants, the operating rate is expected to increase [62]. - PP: The production profit of oil - based PP is - 522 yuan/ton, and that of PDH - made PP is 394 yuan/ton. The PDH - made PP operating rate is rising. The overall PP operating rate is 83.6%, a decrease of 0.6% from last month [62]. 4.6 Polyolefin Non - standard Price Spread and Operating Ratio - PE: The production ratio of LLDPE and HDPE has decreased, while that of LDPE has increased. The operating ratio of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE has changed accordingly. The non - standard price spreads between HD injection - LL and LDPE - LLDPE have different trends [69]. - PP: The production ratios of PP fiber and PP copolymer injection have decreased, while that of PP non - standard homopolymer injection has increased. The operating ratios of different PP products have also changed, and the non - standard price spread between PP low - melt copolymer and PP fiber has declined [69]. 4.7 Polyolefin Outer - market Price Spread and Import - Export Profit - LL: The import profit in East China is - 26 yuan/ton, and the export profit is - 69 US dollars/ton. The import window is closed, and China's PE imports are decreasing [85]. - PP: The import profit of PP fiber in East China is - 445 yuan/ton, and the export profit is - 26 US dollars/ton. China's PP imports and exports have decreased [85]. 4.8 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE: The operating rate of PE's downstream agricultural film is 27%, an increase of 10% from last month. The operating rate of PE's downstream packaging film is 51%, remaining unchanged from last month [109]. - PP: The operating rate of PP's downstream woven products is 41%, a decrease of 1% from last month. The operating rate of PP's downstream BOPP is 58%, a decrease of 1% from last month. The operating rate of PP's downstream injection molding remains unchanged [109]. 4.9 Polyolefin Downstream Inventory and Order Situation - PE: The raw - material inventory days of PE's downstream agricultural film are 8.1 days, remaining unchanged from last month. The order days are 2.8 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from last month. The raw - material inventory days of PE's downstream packaging film are 7.2 days, an increase of 0.1 days from last month. The order days are 8.1 days, an increase of 0.2 days from last month [115]. - PP: The raw - material inventory days of PP's downstream BOPP are 9.1 days, a decrease of 0.4 days from last month. The finished - product inventory days are 10.6 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from last month. The order days are 8.7 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last month. The raw - material inventory days of PP's downstream woven products are 6.7 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from last month. The finished - product inventory days are 6.1 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last month. The order days are 6.9 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from last month [115]. 4.10 Polyolefin Actual Inventory - The upstream petrochemical inventory is 750,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last month. As the downstream is still in the off - season in August, the inventory is expected to increase slightly [130].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for LLDPE is neutral, with a trend strength of 0, indicating neither a strong bullish nor bearish outlook [3][4]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, LLDPE is expected to trade in a range. The conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, leading to an expected retracement of the premium caused by polyethylene import risks. The spot market has weak high - price transactions, and the negative feedback from the demand side has affected the industry chain. Although geopolitical issues may fluctuate, the overall short - term trend is sideways [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The L2509 contract closed at 7271 yesterday, down 0.27%. The trading volume was 309,550, and the open interest decreased by 12,263 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the 09 contract was 9 yesterday, compared to 50 the previous day. The 09 - 01 contract spread was 47 yesterday, down from 51 the previous day [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the North China region, the price was 7280 yuan/ton yesterday, down from 7300 yuan/ton the previous day. In the East and South China regions, the prices remained unchanged at 7350 yuan/ton and 7430 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Spot Market News - LLDPE market prices partially declined, with a price range of 20 - 110 yuan/ton. The futures market opened lower and traded weakly, causing cautious market sentiment. Petrochemical companies lowered some ex - factory prices, and traders followed suit. Terminal buyers showed low enthusiasm and a cautious purchasing attitude [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Macro - factors**: The easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel is expected to lead to a retracement of the premium caused by polyethylene import risks. The weak high - price transactions in the spot market and the continuous weakening of the basis have led to negative feedback in the industry chain due to weak demand. However, geopolitical issues may still fluctuate [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: In the 09 contract of 2025, the expected new production capacity of domestic PE plants is 2.05 million tons, resulting in significant supply pressure. Although there are many maintenance activities in June, it is not enough to change the high - production pattern. On the demand side, the shed film industry is in the traditional off - season, with weak market demand and low orders. Most enterprises only maintain phased production. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate has decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous period. Downstream factories have phased low - price restocking, but the continuous restocking strength is insufficient [2]. - **Future Considerations**: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene. Due to the continuous decline in HDPE inventory in the first half of the year and the relatively low inventory year - on - year, the HD - LL price difference has widened, and there may be a switch in production capacity between the two. If full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE production, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated. Also, the price difference between LDPE and EVA products should be monitored [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The rebound of LLDPE is difficult to sustain, and it will be in a mid - term oscillatory market. Factors such as cost increase, supply - demand imbalance, and weak demand on the consumer side all contribute to this situation. There are also potential changes in supply due to capacity switching [1][2]. 3. Key Points from Each Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2509 was 7415, with a daily decline of - 0.38%, trading volume of 414,225, and an increase of 6149 in positions [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 09 - contract basis was - 15, compared to - 82 the previous day; the 09 - 01 contract spread was 68, compared to 63 the previous day [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the North China region, it was 7400 yuan/ton (7380 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 7450 yuan/ton; in the South China region, it was 7550 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot News The upward trend of LLDPE market prices slowed down, with price fluctuations between 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened high and closed low. Some prices of PetroChina and Sinopec were raised, but traders were more cautious, and downstream factories were hesitant to buy, resulting in poor transactions [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Macro - factors**: The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran led to a significant rebound in crude oil prices, raising the cost of polyethylene. In 2024, Iran's polyethylene imports were 133.02 million tons, accounting for 9.6% of the total imports, and there may be import disruptions in the future. However, the high - price transactions in the polyethylene spot market weakened, and the basis continued to decline [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: In the 2025 09 - contract, the expected new domestic PE plant capacity is 2.05 million tons, with high supply pressure. Although there are many maintenance activities in June, it cannot change the high - production pattern. The demand side is weak, with the greenhouse film industry in the off - season and low orders. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate decreased by - 0.7% compared to the previous period. Downstream factories' continuous restocking ability is insufficient [2]. - **Future Considerations**: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene, as well as the price difference between LDPE and EVA products. If full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE production, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE short-term outlook is bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, leading to a short-term volatile and bullish trend in polyethylene prices. Future polyethylene imports from Iran may be disrupted. The supply pressure of PE remains high in 2025, while the demand is in a downward trend. The demand from downstream factories is insufficient to drive significant destocking of polyethylene. Attention should be paid to the spread between low-pressure and linear polyethylene, and the possible capacity switch between HDPE and LLDPE may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of L2509 futures was 7462, with a daily increase of 0.96%, trading volume of 432,373, and an increase in open interest of 2116. The 09 contract basis was -82, and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 63. The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7380 yuan/ton, 7450 yuan/ton, and 8550 yuan/ton respectively [1] Spot News - The domestic PE market fluctuated upwards this week. Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, the crude oil price rose continuously. The market was bullish on LDPE, and its price increase was more significant than that of LLDPE and HDPE. Although the quotations of petrochemical companies and traders increased, the factory orders did not follow up well, and the market trading volume did not increase [1] Market Condition Analysis - In 2024, Iran's polyethylene imports accounted for 9.6% of the total imports. In 2025, the new production capacity of domestic PE plants on the 09 contract is expected to be 2.05 million tons. The maintenance in June is not enough to change the high - production pattern. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate has decreased by 0.5%. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate has decreased by 0.45%. The HD - LL spread has widened, and there is a possibility of capacity switch between HDPE and LLDPE. Some plants have already started to switch production [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, indicating a relatively bullish trend [4]

Report Overview - Report Date: April 29, 2025 - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Iran port incident caused supply disruptions. The import dependence of domestic polyethylene on Iranian sources is about 3.3% and decreasing annually. LDPE is more affected, with Iranian imports accounting for about 18% of total LDPE imports. The import interruption concern led to a significant increase in LDPE prices. However, the supply - side impact has weakened as the port resumed cargo import and export on the 27th. With high inventory and weakening demand peak season, it's difficult to support continuous upward movement of plastics. [4] - PP has a low import dependence and was less affected by this incident. Currently, upstream PP device maintenance is intensive, providing temporary support to the supply side. But downstream product exports are restricted and the peak season is fading, resulting in weakening demand and intensified supply - demand game, leading to narrow - range consolidation at low levels. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7063 | 7101 | 7122 | 7063 | 26 | 0.37% | 44163 | - 426 | | Plastic 2505 | 7348 | 7353 | 7383 | 7331 | - 14 | - 0.19% | 23834 | - 8998 | | Plastic 2509 | 7135 | 7164 | 7189 | 7133 | 16 | 0.22% | 482064 | - 10575 | | PP2601 | 7013 | 7054 | 7070 | 7013 | 19 | 0.27% | 16157 | 217 | | PP2505 | 7179 | 7195 | 7219 | 7178 | 3 | 0.04% | 19227 | - 4703 | | PP2509 | 7088 | 7112 | 7128 | 7085 | 10 | 0.14% | 397139 | - 9623 | [3] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory level of major producers today is 655,000 tons, a 5,000 - ton increase (0.77%) from the previous workday, compared to 710,000 tons in the same period last year. [5] - PP market prices fluctuated narrowly. The slight increase in PP futures boosted the sentiment of the spot market. Most producer factory prices remained stable, and the overall offers of traders changed little. Some low - stock grades tried to increase prices slightly, and downstream factories made low - price rigid - demand replenishments. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 7090 - 7320 yuan/ton, East China was 7200 - 7330 yuan/ton, and South China was 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton. [5] - Some PE market prices increased. In North China, individual linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure prices increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and individual low - pressure prices fluctuated by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure prices increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and low - pressure prices fluctuated by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, some high - pressure prices increased by 20 - 150 yuan/ton, and low - pressure and linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The LDPE market price continued to rise, and downstream buyers mainly made rigid - demand replenishments with actual transactions focusing on negotiation. The LLDPE price in North China was 7350 - 7650 yuan/ton, in East China was 7350 - 7950 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7550 - 7800 yuan/ton. [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][11][12] Core Views - The petrochemical business is under significant pressure, leading to a downward revision of the company's EPS for 2025-2026 to 4.20/5.45/6.07 RMB, with a target price adjustment to 67.70 RMB based on a 16.12x PE for 2025 [4][11][12] - The company experienced a decline in Q4 performance, with total revenue for 2024 at 182.07 billion RMB, up 3.83% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.03 billion RMB, down 22.49% YoY [12][13] - The company is entering a "Year of Transformation" in 2025, focusing on management reforms to enhance organizational vitality and market expansion [12][13] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections are as follows: 175.36 billion RMB for 2023, 182.07 billion RMB for 2024, 200.01 billion RMB for 2025, 223.95 billion RMB for 2026, and 244.42 billion RMB for 2027, with respective growth rates of 5.9%, 3.8%, 9.9%, 12.0%, and 9.1% [3][5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 16.82 billion RMB for 2023, 13.03 billion RMB for 2024, 13.20 billion RMB for 2025, 17.10 billion RMB for 2026, and 19.07 billion RMB for 2027, reflecting a decline of 22.5% in 2024 [3][5] - The company's gross profit margin for petrochemicals was 3.52% in 2024, with a further decline to 2.31% in the second half of the year [12][13] Business Developments - The company has multiple projects nearing completion, including a second TDI project in Fujian expected to start in May 2025, increasing total TDI capacity to 1.44 million tons/year [13] - A 250,000 tons/year LDPE unit in Yantai is set to commence operations in early 2025, establishing a foundation in high-end polyolefins [13] - New materials projects, including MS and XLPE, are progressing and expected to start in 2025 [13]