【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年3月31日 【行情分析】 3月31日，停车装置变化不大，塑料开工率维持在80%左右，目前开工率处于偏低水平。截至3月 27日当周，PE下游开工率环比上升2.16个百分点至39.75%，春节假期结束第五周，下游陆续复产，但 还未恢复至节前正常水平，整体PE下游开工率季节性变动。春节假期后石化库存有所去化，目前石 化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，尽管美国释放谈判信号，但同时威胁打击伊朗的能源设施， 中东冲突仍实质性存在，目前美伊达成停火协议的可能性不大。原油供应中断风险也并未解除，原 油价格维持在高位。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化 LDPE/EVA在2026年1月已投产。一季度已无新增产能计划投产。近期塑料开工率持续下降。元宵节后 下游工厂复工增加，刚需集中释放，春耕旺季，华北、华东、华南地区农膜价格均继续上涨。塑料 国内自身供需格局有所改善，化工反内卷仍有预期，中东局势提振能源化工，伊朗PE进口占中国总 进口量约8%，占国内产量约3%，不过整个中东地区进口占国内产量约20%，中东地区PE产能占全球1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, but the Middle East situation is changeable, the market fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to temporarily exit the market and wait and see, while paying attention to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the festival and the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On March 26, new shutdown devices such as Tarim Petrochemical's full - density were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to about 81%, which is at a moderately low level [1][4] - As of the week of March 20, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 3.76 percentage points to 37.59% month - on - month. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but have not returned to pre - holiday levels, showing seasonal changes [1][4] - After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have been reduced, and currently petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level in recent years [1][4] - There are reports that the US may stop the fire for a month to discuss a 15 - point agreement with Iran. Crude oil prices fell from a high and then stabilized. The new production capacities of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in the first quarter [1] - After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories resumed work, and the rigid demand was released intensively. The prices of agricultural films in North, East, and South China continued to rise. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, but there is resistance to high prices in the downstream, and spot transactions are weak. The supply reduction expectation of plastics still exists due to the non - navigability of the Strait of Hormuz [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract opened higher, increased positions, and fluctuated. The lowest price was 8620 yuan/ton, the highest was 8864 yuan/ton, and it closed at 8767 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. The position increased by 2213 lots to 322033 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price changes, with price changes ranging from - 200 to + 200 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 8380 - 9570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 10430 - 11810 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8600 - 9940 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 26, new shutdown devices such as Tarim Petrochemical's full - density were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to about 81%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 20, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 3.76 percentage points to 37.59% month - on - month, showing seasonal changes [4] - Petrochemical inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 805,000 tons, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year, at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose to $104/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by $50/ton to $1400/ton month - on - month, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also decreased by $50/ton to $1400/ton month - on - month [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in sectors focusing on domestic demand, high dividends, and import substitution [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as butadiene (up 42.36%), ethylene (up 39.18%), and LDPE (up 27.01%), while products like dichloromethane and pure MDI saw substantial declines [4][5][6] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is expected to lead to a significant increase in international oil prices, with Brent crude at $104.49 per barrel and WTI at $92.35 per barrel [6][17] - The report suggests focusing on helium, biodiesel, and agricultural chemicals as potential investment opportunities due to their expected growth driven by rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions [8][9][21] Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their impact on chemical prices, suggesting a focus on products that are significantly affected by these events [20][22] Price Trends - The report details the weekly price movements of various chemical products, noting that while some products have rebounded, others continue to decline, indicating a mixed market sentiment [17][18][19] Specific Product Insights - The report identifies helium as a key investment opportunity due to its supply constraints and price elasticity during geopolitical conflicts [20] - Biodiesel is highlighted as a growing market in Europe, driven by rising SAF prices and energy security concerns [21] - Agricultural chemicals are expected to benefit from rising food prices, with a projected increase in demand for fertilizers and pesticides [21] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the fluctuations in the propane market, indicating a return to rational pricing amid geopolitical tensions and supply constraints [27][28] - It also notes the stability in the spray coal market, supported by seasonal demand and stable pricing [29][30] PTA and Polyester Market - The PTA market is experiencing upward price pressure due to geopolitical risks and supply constraints, while the polyester market is facing challenges with demand and pricing stability [34][36][37] Urea Market - The urea market is characterized by narrow price declines amid a complex supply-demand dynamic, with expectations of increased supply from upcoming production restarts [38][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in sectors focusing on domestic demand, high dividends, and import substitution [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as butadiene (up 42.36%), ethylene (up 39.18%), and LDPE (up 27.01%), while products like dichloromethane and pure MDI saw substantial declines [4][5][6] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is expected to lead to a significant increase in international oil prices, with Brent crude at $104.49 per barrel and WTI at $92.35 per barrel [6][17] - The report suggests focusing on helium, biodiesel, and agricultural chemicals as potential investment opportunities due to their expected growth driven by rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions [8][9][21] Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices, which are expected to remain volatile [22][23] - It notes that the domestic demand for agricultural chemicals is likely to increase due to rising food prices, benefiting companies in the phosphate and potash sectors [21] Price Trends - The report details the weekly price movements of various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance with notable increases in certain sectors while others faced declines [4][5][6] - Specific products like butadiene and ethylene have shown remarkable price growth, while dichloromethane and pure MDI have experienced significant drops [17][18] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the current state of the propane market, indicating a high price level with fluctuations expected due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues [27][28] - It also highlights the stability in the spray coal market, with prices showing slight increases amid rising demand from steel manufacturers [29][30] Agricultural Chemicals - The report indicates that the agricultural sector is likely to see increased demand for fertilizers and pesticides due to rising food prices, with specific companies identified as beneficiaries [21][38][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On March 24, 2026, with new parking devices such as Tarim Petrochemical's HDPE, the plastic operating rate dropped to around 82.5%, at a moderately low level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 3.76 percentage points week - on - week to 37.59% as of the week of March 20, but it hasn't returned to the pre - holiday level. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. The cost of crude oil fluctuated due to the news of US - Iran relations. New production capacity was put into operation in January 2026, and there is no plan for new capacity in the first quarter. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, but there are factors like high - price resistance from downstream and weak spot trading. Recently, plastic prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption after the holiday and the situation in the Middle East [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - New parking devices such as Tarim Petrochemical's HDPE on March 24 led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to around 82.5%, which is at a moderately low level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 3.76 percentage points week - on - week to 37.59% as of the week of March 20, showing a seasonal change. Petrochemical inventory has decreased after the Spring Festival and is currently at a neutral level in recent years. The cost side was affected by the news of US - Iran relations, causing oil prices to fluctuate. New production capacities of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA have been put into operation in January 2026, and there is no plan for new capacity in the first quarter. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, but downstream shows high - price resistance and spot trading is weak. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, refinery load reduction will increase. Recently, plastic prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2605 contract opened lower, reduced positions, and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 8,857 yuan/ton, the highest was 9,313 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8,918 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 3.57%. The position volume decreased by 58,310 lots to 314,927 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 200 to + 900 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 8,930 - 9,770 yuan/ton, LDPE at 10,880 - 11,880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8,970 - 10,140 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 24, new parking devices such as Tarim Petrochemical's HDPE led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to around 82.5%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 20, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 3.76 percentage points week - on - week to 37.59%. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming production, but the level has not returned to pre - holiday levels, with a seasonal change in the overall downstream operating rate of PE [4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 15,000 tons week - on - week to 905,000 tons, 55,000 tons higher than the same lunar period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract dropped to $102/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by $25/ton week - on - week to $1,450/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also increased by $25/ton week - on - week to $1,450/ton [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On March 18, the change in parking devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 87.5%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83% week-on-week as of the week of March 13. After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory continued to decline, and is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil remains high. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into production in January 2026, and there are no plans to put new production capacities into operation in the first quarter. The domestic supply-demand pattern of plastics has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The situation in the Middle East boosts the energy and chemical industry. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the refinery load reduction will further increase. Recently, the plastic price has been oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream enterprises after the festival and the development of the Middle East situation [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 18, the plastic operating rate remained at around 87.5%, at a neutral level. As of the week of March 13, the downstream PE operating rate increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83% week-on-week. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory continued to decline, currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil remains high. New production capacities were put into production in January 2026, and there are no plans to put new production capacities into operation in the first quarter. The domestic supply-demand pattern of plastics has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The situation in the Middle East boosts the energy and chemical industry. The shortage of raw materials has increased the load reduction of olefin plants at home and abroad, and the downstream has a resistance to high prices, with weak spot transactions. Recently, the plastic price has been oscillating strongly [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract opened lower and then increased positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 8,357 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,683 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8,431 yuan/ton, above the 60-day moving average, with a decline of 0.78%. The position increased by 10,242 lots to 343,958 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from -100 to +50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 8,280 - 8,970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 10,130 - 11,260 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8,370 - 9,440 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 18, the change in parking devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 87.5%, currently at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 13, the downstream PE operating rate increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83% week-on-week. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream enterprises gradually resumed production but have not returned to the pre-holiday level, showing a seasonal change [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 850,000 tons week-on-week, 35,000 tons higher than the same period last lunar year, currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell below $102/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by $50/ton to $1,250/ton week-on-week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also increased by $50/ton to $1,250/ton week-on-week [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, Daotong Technology, and others [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as liquid chlorine (up 97.90%) and p-nitrochlorobenzene (up 80.33%), while products like coke and lithium battery electrolyte experienced notable declines [3][4][14]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as helium, biodiesel, and agricultural chemicals due to the geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices and supply chains [5][6][7][17]. - Brent crude oil prices reached $103.14 per barrel, reflecting an increase of 11.27% from the previous week, while WTI prices rose by 8.59% to $98.71 per barrel [5][14]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and their impact on oil prices, which are expected to rise significantly [5][18]. - It identifies helium as a key investment opportunity due to its supply constraints and price elasticity during geopolitical conflicts [6][17]. - Biodiesel is highlighted as a growing sector, particularly in Europe, where demand is expected to increase due to rising oil prices and energy security concerns [7][17]. - Agricultural chemicals are projected to benefit from rising food prices, with a potential increase in demand for fertilizers and pesticides [7][17]. Price Trends - The report details the price movements of various chemical products, noting significant increases in liquid chlorine, p-nitrochlorobenzene, and other chemicals, while also reporting declines in coke and lithium battery electrolyte prices [3][4][14]. - It provides a comprehensive overview of the price dynamics in the petrochemical sector, indicating a volatile market influenced by geopolitical factors [18][24]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report includes a table of key companies with their earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, reinforcing the "Buy" recommendation for these firms [9]. - Companies such as Sinopec and CNOOC are noted for their high dividend yields and strong correlation with oil prices, making them attractive investments in the current market environment [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, Daotong Technology, and others [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as liquid chlorine (up 97.90%) and p-nitrochlorobenzene (up 80.33%), while products like coke and lithium battery electrolyte saw declines [3][4][14]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors like helium, biodiesel, and agricultural chemicals due to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [5][7][17]. - Brent crude oil prices reached $103.14 per barrel, reflecting an increase of 11.27% from the previous week, while WTI prices rose by 8.59% to $98.71 per barrel [5][14]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and their impact on oil prices, which are expected to remain high due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East [18][24]. - It identifies helium as a key investment opportunity, particularly due to its supply constraints and price elasticity during geopolitical conflicts [6][17]. - Biodiesel is highlighted as a growing market, especially in Europe, where demand is expected to rise due to energy security concerns [7][17]. - Agricultural chemicals are projected to benefit from rising food prices, with increased demand for fertilizers and pesticides anticipated [7][17]. Price Trends - The report details significant price movements in various chemical products, with notable increases in liquid chlorine, p-nitrochlorobenzene, and others, while some products like coke and lithium battery electrolyte experienced price drops [3][4][14]. - The report also notes that the PTA market saw a substantial increase, with prices rising by 16.8% in the East China market [31][34]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the volatility in the propane market, which saw a significant price increase followed by a decline due to fluctuating demand and geopolitical tensions [23][29]. - It highlights the impact of international oil prices on domestic markets, particularly in the context of the ongoing geopolitical situation in the Middle East [18][24]. - The report indicates that the demand for diesel is expected to improve as construction and logistics activities ramp up with the warming weather [22][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 13th, with new shutdowns like Dushanzi Petrochemical's HDPE, the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87.5%, at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%, still below pre - holiday levels due to seasonal changes. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. Despite the IEA's oil reserve release, slow delivery and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz led to a rebound in crude oil prices. New capacities from BASF (Guangdong) and Yulong Petrochemical were put into production in January 2026, and there are no new capacity plans in Q1. The domestic plastic supply - demand pattern has improved, and with the Middle East situation affecting the energy - chemical sector, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, plastic prices are likely to rise. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption and the Middle East situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - On March 13th, new shutdowns led to a drop in the plastic operating rate to 87.5%. The PE downstream operating rate rose 5.21 percentage points to 33.83% after the Spring Festival. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. Crude oil prices rebounded due to slow reserve delivery and the Strait of Hormuz situation. New capacities were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no Q1 plans. The domestic plastic supply - demand improved, but downstream is cautious in purchasing due to high prices. If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't resume, plastic prices may rise [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract increased in positions, fluctuated upwards, with a low of 8226 yuan/ton, a high of 8584 yuan/ton, closing at 8416 yuan/ton above the 60 - day moving average, up 0.13%. Open interest increased by 15415 lots to 342523 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market had mixed price changes, ranging from - 200 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 8230 - 8970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9930 - 11110 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8300 - 9500 yuan/ton [3] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On March 13th, new shutdowns made the plastic operating rate drop to 87.5%, at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of March 13th, the PE downstream operating rate rose 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%, not yet back to pre - holiday levels due to seasonality [4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday increased by 20,000 tons to 820,000 tons, 45,000 tons higher than the same lunar period last year, at a neutral level in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose to $101/barrel. Northeast Asian ethylene prices rose $30/ton to $1000/ton, and Southeast Asian ethylene prices rose $30/ton to $970/ton [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, has led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, which in turn is impacting the supply chain and causing panic buying in the plastic market in China [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of WTI crude oil reached a peak of $119.48 per barrel, representing a 78% increase compared to pre-conflict levels [5][12]. - In the chemical market, polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) futures saw significant price increases, with PP rising to 8034 yuan/ton and PE to 7944 yuan/ton, marking daily increases of 454 yuan/ton and 449 yuan/ton respectively [5][14]. - The Dongguan market, a major hub for plastic trading, has experienced severe congestion due to panic buying, with trucks waiting for hours to unload [6][9][21]. Group 2: Supply Chain Implications - The conflict has created a ripple effect throughout the supply chain, with rising oil prices affecting the entire petrochemical industry, leading to increased costs for downstream products [13][26]. - Local suppliers in Dongguan have reported frequent price adjustments and speculative buying behavior, indicating a market driven by fear rather than actual demand [24][26]. - The local plastic industry is facing a dual challenge of rising prices from upstream suppliers and stagnant demand from downstream manufacturers, leading to a precarious market situation [26][27]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Dongguan Plastic Industry Association has indicated that while short-term price fluctuations are expected, the core supply channels remain stable, and the overall supply-demand balance is manageable [25]. - However, there are concerns about the accumulation of risks in the market, particularly with high-priced inventory and potential cash flow issues for traders [27]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions may keep oil prices elevated, which could have long-term implications for the manufacturing sector reliant on plastic as a key raw material [27].