Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PP powder market price continued to rise slightly today, with the price center increasing by 0 - 100 yuan/ton. The polypropylene futures market showed a strong trend, which supported the trading confidence of market participants. However, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers weakened, and the actual trading volume was limited. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to the intense long - short game [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream - Brent crude oil price rose from 65.47 to 66.52, an increase of 1.05 [1] - The price of动力煤 remained unchanged at 706 [1] - The price of methanol (East China) decreased from 2257 to 2240, a decrease of 17 [1] - The price of propane (imported in South China) remained unchanged at 604 [1] - The price of imported propylene rose from 6258 to 6378, an increase of 120 [1] - The price of propylene in Shandong rose from 5995 to 6110, an increase of 115 [1] - The price of propylene in East China rose from 6250 to 6325, an increase of 75 [1] Spot - The price of PP powder in Shandong remained unchanged at 6470 [1] - The price of PP powder in East China rose from 6500 to 6550, an increase of 50 [1] - The price of PP拉丝 in North China rose from 6500 to 6600, an increase of 100 [1] - The price of PP拉丝 in East China remained unchanged at 6500 [1] - The PP主力 price rose from 6590 to 6592, an increase of 2 [1] - The PP拉丝 basis in East China decreased from - 90 to - 92 [1] - The price of PP oil - made拉丝 in East China remained unchanged at 6850 [1] - The price of low - melt copolymer in East China remained unchanged at 6750 [1] - The price of high - melt fiber in East China remained unchanged at 805 [1] - The PP Southeast Asia CIF price rose from 6874.49 to 6900.73, an increase of 26.24 [1] Others - The number of warrants remained unchanged at 17508 [2] - The proportion of拉丝 decreased from 27.56% to 27.09%, a decrease of 0.47% [2] - The proportion of homopolymer injection molding decreased from 15.02% to 18.12%, a decrease of 3.1% [2] - The proportion of copolymer injection molding increased from 1.45% to 16.36%, an increase of 14.91% [2] - The proportion of fiber production increased from 0.21% to 9.21%, an increase of 9.42% [2] - The proportion of BOPP decreased from 3.42% to 0.0%, a decrease of 3.42% [2] - The proportion of pipes increased from 1.12% to 1.53%, an increase of 0.41% [2] - The parking rate increased from 17.27% to 18.52%, an increase of 1.25% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polypropylene market in China continues to experience a downward trend in prices due to supply and demand pressures, with prices dropping to 6150 RMB/ton as of December 19, a decrease of 210 RMB/ton or 3.3% from the beginning of the month [2][10]. Supply Side Analysis - There is no new production capacity added in December, but the market shows a "sufficient total supply with localized tightness" characteristic. Some production units are unstable, and logistics disruptions in the northwest have led to structural tightness in certain areas. However, overall operating rates of existing facilities remain high, indicating a stable supply from major producers [3][11]. - The demand side is exacerbating the weak market atmosphere. Although there is stable rigid demand from downstream, a "fear of falling prices" sentiment dominates trading, leading to cautious purchasing strategies among intermediaries and downstream factories [3][11]. Price Dynamics - The combination of weak oil prices, insufficient cost support, and a lack of favorable macroeconomic policies has resulted in multiple negative factors affecting the polypropylene market. As a result, there is a lack of upward momentum for prices, which are expected to continue seeking a bottom in a weak range [3][11]. Future Outlook for 2026 - The core driving logic for the domestic polypropylene market in 2026 is expected to remain anchored in supply and demand fundamentals, with a likely continuation of a "supply increase exceeding demand increase" scenario, putting overall market operations under pressure [5][14]. - The first half of 2026 may provide a critical window for inventory digestion due to a slowdown in new production capacity releases, with most of the planned 5.65 million tons of new capacity expected to be released in the second half of the year [6][14]. Inventory Management and Market Strategy - In the short term, the focus should be on inventory transfer progress and the financial turnover pressure within the industry chain, adopting a prudent inventory management strategy. In the medium to long term, attention should be directed towards the demand recovery rhythm in March 2026 and the new production capacity release in the second half of the year [7][15]. - The polypropylene market is expected to remain in a phase of weak low levels, with a focus on waiting for clear recovery signals from the spring peak season before making significant moves [7][15].