Group 1 - The company announced the completion of routine maintenance for its wholly-owned subsidiary's PDH unit, which began on July 29, 2025, and resumed production on August 7, 2025 [1][2] - The board of directors guarantees the announcement's content is free from any false records, misleading statements, or significant omissions [1] - The announcement was made on August 9, 2025, confirming the resumption of operations [2]

本次停产检修是根据年度计划进行的例行检修，对公司的生产经营不会产生重大影响。 特此公告。 天津渤海化学股份有限公司董事会 2025年8月1日 证券代码：600800 证券简称：渤海化学 编号：临2025-037 天津渤海化学股份有限公司关于全资子公司PDH装置例行停产检修的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据化工企业生产工艺和生产装置的要求，为确保生产装置安全有效运行，按照年度计划，天津渤海化 学股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）全资子公司天津渤海石化有限公司的PDH装置（60万吨/年）于 2025年7月29日开始停产检修，预计检修18天。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Bohai Chemical announced a scheduled maintenance shutdown of its PDH unit, which has a capacity of 600,000 tons per year, starting from July 29, 2025, for an estimated duration of 18 days [2] - The maintenance is part of the annual plan and is necessary to ensure the safe and effective operation of the production facilities [2] - The company stated that this routine maintenance will not have a significant impact on its production and operations [2]

格隆汇7月31日丨渤海化学(600800.SH)公布，根据化工企业生产工艺和生产装置的要求，为确保生产装 置安全有效运行，按照年度计划，天津渤海化学股份有限公司全资子公司天津渤海石化有限公司的PDH 装置（60万吨/年）于2025年7月29日开始停产检修，预计检修18天。本次停产检修是根据年度计划进行 的例行检修，对公司的生产经营不会产生重大影响。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for liquefied petroleum gas is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - If geopolitical risks do not reach an extreme scenario, the fundamental situation of LPG will loosen marginally in the second half of this year. The supply side will have greater adjustment flexibility driven by the expansion of terminals in the U.S. Gulf and the increase in OPEC+ production, while propane chemical demand will be negatively impacted by the Sino - U.S. tariff game. If the Sino - U.S. tariffs do not ease unexpectedly, the FEI - CP central level is expected to remain weak in the second half of the year. The domestic market will be more affected by the C4 end and warrant trading, and the PG/SC gas - oil ratio is expected to remain weak [4][107] 3. Summary by Table of Contents 3.1 1H25 Market Review - In Q1, both domestic and international contracts oscillated within a range. The fundamental contradictions of LPG itself changed relatively little. The rise of LPG was weaker than that of crude oil. In mid - February, the game around the basis of domestic near - month contracts increased significantly. After the oil price dropped, the basis supported the 03 contract and suppressed the long - term sentiment. From March to April, a positive spread trend emerged instead of the reverse spread trend in previous years. In March, due to the reduction of supply caused by increased maintenance of domestic liquefied gas plants and strong chemical demand, the near - month spreads of domestic and international markets showed a positive spread trend [17] - In Q2, the market volatility increased significantly, and the trading logics of domestic and international markets diverged. The change in Sino - U.S. tariff policy was the main factor affecting international prices. After the U.S. imposed a 34% tariff on China on April 4, the FEI price dropped sharply in early April. After the unexpected easing of Sino - U.S. tariffs on May 12, the FEI/CP spread strengthened, but the domestic market was suppressed by the weak C4 demand and a large number of warrants and fell smoothly [18] - In June, the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict brought a new round of shocks. The FEI/CP spread soared, and the domestic market's spread continued to weaken [19] 3.2 Supply in the Second Half of the Year 3.2.1 United States - In the first half of the year, the U.S. C3 production increased, with the average net C3 production in Q1 at 265 million barrels per day and further rising to 283 million barrels per day by mid - June. In the second half of the year, only one fractionation unit is planned to be put into operation in Q3, and the marginal increase in production is limited. It is expected that the C3 production will only increase slightly in Q3 and decline marginally in Q4 [26][27] - From January to May, the U.S. LPG export volume increased by 5% year - on - year. The export capacity will expand in the second half of the year, with ETP and Targa's export capacities expected to increase by 3.85 million and 0.6 million tons per year respectively. However, the actual export volume will be affected by factors such as Northeast Asian demand, Sino - U.S. tariff game, and potential substitution demand due to the Middle East conflict. In addition, the hurricane season from June to November may impact the export rhythm [32][35][37] 3.2.2 Middle East - In the first half of the year, the Middle East's LPG export volume increased by 3.3% year - on - year. The supply increment mainly came from countries other than Saudi Arabia. In the second half of the year, the supply increment space is relatively limited. Although there are some planned projects, the actual increment that can be realized this year is likely to be small. If OPEC+ relaxes oil production cuts as planned, the potential export increment in the Middle East is about 150,000 tons per month. However, if the geopolitical conflict persists, the supply may face significant tightening risks [43][44][45] 3.3 Demand in the Second Half of the Year 3.3.1 Combustion Demand - India's LPG demand was strong in the first half of the year, with imports increasing by 5.2% year - on - year from January to May. It is expected that the import and demand growth rates in the second half of the year will be similar to those in the first half, with an annual import growth rate of about 5%. Other Asian regions' combustion demand showed no bright spots in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to Japan's summer inventory - building progress [61][62] 3.3.2 Chemical Demand - In the cracking end, the demand in the first half of the year was weak due to the poor relative economy of LPG. It is expected that the cracking demand in the second half of the year will be weaker than that in the first half, depending on the change in the relative economy of FEI - MOPJ. Regarding the PDH end, although the PDH device profit improved in Q1, it was under pressure in Q2 due to tariff policies. In the second half of the year, the profit repair space is limited, and the operating rate is likely to decline marginally [69][73][74] 3.4 China's LPG Supply - Demand Balance - In the first half of the year, the domestic production of LPG decreased slightly year - on - year. The supply of domestic gas is expected to increase marginally in the second half of the year, mainly supported by the new CDU units in Zhenhai and Daxie. The domestic demand side is facing pressure, with the combustion demand weakening and the C4 chemical route performing weakly. Overall, if the current Sino - U.S. tariff scenario and geopolitical conflict intensity remain unchanged, the supply - demand balance in China is expected to be looser in the second half of the year [82][84][85] 3.5 Transportation Cost - If the geopolitical conflict remains at the current intensity, the impact on transportation costs in the second half of the year is limited. The freight rate on the U.S. Gulf - Far East route is expected to be relatively strong in the third quarter, mainly supported by factors such as geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, the hurricane season in the Atlantic, and potential congestion in the Panama Canal. However, the freight rate may weaken in the fourth quarter due to the planned launch of new ships [97][98] 3.6 Investment Suggestion - If geopolitical risks do not reach an extreme scenario, the fundamental situation of LPG will loosen marginally in the second half of the year. If the Sino - U.S. tariffs do not ease unexpectedly, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities. The domestic market will be affected by the C4 end and warrant trading, and the PG/SC gas - oil ratio is expected to remain weak [107]

1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff disturbances and the resulting trade re - balancing were the main themes in the H1 2025 LPG market. In H2 2025, with the concentrated launch of new production capacities in the Middle East and the US, and the weak growth of domestic chemical demand, the supply - demand balance will turn to looseness [2][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 H1 LPG Market Review - **Analysis of Different Stages**: - In Q1 2025, the domestic civil gas market was in a seasonal peak. The lowest deliverable domestic LPG was Shandong civil gas with a spot price around 4,800 - 4,900 yuan/ton. The LPG market fluctuated widely with costs under the pressure of cancellation [9]. - The 04 - contract LPG showed strength. Against the backdrop of weakening global crude oil and FEI prices, the domestic LPG price was strong, and the basis once shrank to around 100 yuan/ton. The contract mainly traded on the squeeze - out of the futures market and the expected tariff counter - measures due to Trump's potential global taxation [9]. - After Trump's global equal - tariff policy and high - tariff measures against China, China imposed a 125% counter - tariff on US imports. The global crude oil and FEI prices tumbled. The domestic LPG market was initially strong but then followed the decline of civil gas prices, while the internal - external price spread rebounded rapidly and fluctuated until early May [9]. - After the Sino - US phased tariff suspension agreement on May 12, the FEI market reversed, and the domestic LPG price fell sharply under the weakening civil gas and large - scale warehouse receipts, with the basis widening [9]. 3.2 2025 H2 LPG Operating Logic 3.2.1 LPG Import Pattern Outlook - **Historical Growth**: In the past 5 years, with the rapid expansion of domestic PDH and other capacities, the chemical demand for LPG increased significantly, and the average annual growth rate of the total imports of propane and butane was 14.10% [11]. - **2025 H1 Import Situation**: From January to March, the cumulative imports of LPG were 8.514 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.44%. However, from April to May, under the impact of Trump's 125% tariff on China, the imports dropped to 5.0209 million tons, a 11.54% decrease from the Q1 average. Even after the tariff suspension in May, the procurement of US propane did not increase significantly due to policy uncertainty and supply - chain substitution [14]. - **Import Source Changes**: The share of US propane in China's imports dropped sharply. In May, it accounted for only 21.17% (310,000 tons). The shortfall was mainly filled by the Middle East (increasing to 55.12% in May 2025 from 23.96% in 2024) and non - traditional sources such as Canada, Australia, and North Africa [15]. 3.2.1.1 Tariff 1.0 - **2018 - 2020 Trade War Impact**: In 2018, after the US imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese goods, China counter - imposed tariffs on US LPG. The US LPG imports dropped by about 290,000 tons/month on average. China supplemented imports through increasing Middle East imports, seeking non - traditional sources, and exchanging goods with Japan and South Korea. However, there was still a shortfall of about 40,000 tons/month [19]. - **2025 Situation**: By 2024, US propane accounted for 59% of China's imports, over 17 million tons annually. If US imports were to stop, it would be difficult to reshape the trade logistics, and the arrival cost of LPG would likely increase. Chinese PDH enterprises might face production cuts or shutdowns [21]. 3.2.1.2 Middle East LPG Supply - **H1 2025 Supply**: Since 2023, the average annual growth rate of Middle East LPG exports has been between 2.5 - 3%. From January to May 2025, it increased by 2.88% year - on - year. The supply from Saudi Arabia and Qatar decreased, while the increments mainly came from Iran and Kuwait [23]. - **H2 2025 New Capacity**: From 2025 - 2026, the new LPG capacity in the Middle East is estimated to be between 14 - 16 million tons, mainly contributed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This expansion will add nearly 10% to the global LPG supply, intensify market competition, and may put downward pressure on international prices [27]. - **Change in Export Direction**: Due to the slowdown in Indian demand and the change in the North Asian import pattern, the Middle East's LPG exports will be more focused on China, Southeast Asia, and Europe [27]. 3.2.1.3 US LPG Supply - **Historical Growth**: In the past 5 years, the average annual growth rate of US propane exports was 10.69%. From January to May 2025, the exports increased by 6.51% year - on - year. Affected by the North American cold wave, exports in February decreased by 9.34% year - on - year and recovered to about 7% in March [33]. - **H2 2025 Outlook**: In H2 2025, US LPG production is expected to increase with expanding exports. The Permian Basin's associated LPG supply will remain high, and with the launch of the Enterprise14 fractionation project and terminal expansion, the export capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million barrels per day in H1 to 2.4 million barrels per day [35]. - **Logistics Pattern Change**: After Trump's "global equal - tariff" policy, the total US propane exports were not significantly affected, but the logistics pattern changed. China's procurement of US propane decreased significantly, while Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America increased their imports [37]. - **Export Capacity Constraints**: US LPG exports are highly concentrated in a few major terminals. Without considering terminal expansions, if the 1 - 5 month's 5% export growth rate is maintained, the average capacity utilization rate of the four major terminals in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to reach 91%. If calculated based on the average 10% growth rate in the past 5 years, it will rise to 98%, indicating a bottleneck in export capacity [42]. 3.2.2 Domestic LPG Supply Outlook - **H1 2025 Supply**: From January to May 2025, the domestic crude oil processing volume decreased by 4.12% year - on - year, dragging the LPG production into negative growth. The total LPG production was 22.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.56% [47]. - **Refinery Operations**: In H1 2025, the overall refinery operations were sluggish. The main refineries had a peak - and - trough pattern during the spring maintenance from March to May, while Shandong independent refineries started the year with a sharp decline and then stagnated at a low level [50]. - **H2 2025 New Capacity**: In H2 2025, new refinery capacities of 27 million tons/year will be gradually released, which is expected to increase the crude oil processing capacity by 2.5 - 3% and theoretically drive the marginal increase of LPG production by 3,500 - 4,500 tons/day [54]. 3.2.3 Domestic LPG Demand Outlook 3.2.3.1 PDH - **Profit and Operation in H1 2025**: In Q1 2025, the average profit of domestic PDH plants was 290 yuan/ton, a 71% year - on - year increase, mainly due to the falling import propane price and relatively stable propylene price. The average operating rate was 71.73%, a 1.59% increase from the previous quarter and an 8.47% increase year - on - year [58]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: After the Sino - US tariff increase in April, the import cost of US propane soared, and the theoretical profit of PDH plants once fell below - 5,500 yuan/ton. Enterprises turned to the Middle East for procurement, making profit recovery difficult. The operating rate dropped from 70% in March to 60% in mid - May and then rebounded to 70% after the tariff suspension in May but fell again later. As of June 12, the theoretical profit was - 357 yuan/ton [59]. - **Capacity Expansion**: In H1 2025, 2.46 million tons/year of new PDH capacities were put into operation, and another 1.45 million tons/year are expected to be launched in H2. The total new capacity in 2025 will reach 3.91 million tons, increasing the propane demand by about 2 million tons. With the concentrated release of propylene capacity in H2 and weak downstream demand, the PDH operating rate may decline [62]. 3.2.3.2 C4 Demand - **MTBE**: In H1 2025, MTBE first rose and then declined. In Q1, it was supported by costs and policies, but in Q2, the market turned sluggish due to increased supply and weak gasoline - blending demand. In H2, the situation may improve slightly during the summer peak season. The expected new production capacity in 2025 is 2.742 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 12% [64][67]. - **Maleic Anhydride**: In H1 2025, maleic anhydride showed a one - way downward trend due to over - capacity. The expected new production capacity in 2025 will exceed 1.5 million tons/year, with a growth rate of over 40% [67].