1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The national propylene market price fluctuated slightly this period, with the Shandong market price at 6,205 yuan/ton as of Friday, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous Friday, and further dropping over the weekend [1][5]. - The cost side was volatile this period. Crude oil had significant fluctuations with mixed factors; propane FEI rose slightly during the week but overall showed a weak oscillation, and the far - month 0102 is a relatively peak season for propane; methanol and coal prices declined after the policy sentiment faded. Overall, cost disturbances increased [5]. - The supply side remained relatively loose this week. The operation rate of major refineries was at a high level, the load of local refineries increased, the operation rate of MTO units remained stable, and the operation rate of PDH decreased slightly due to the maintenance of some units [5]. - On the demand side, there were not many changes overall. The production of PP pellets remained at a high level, the operation rate of PP powder increased compared to before, the operation rate of propylene oxide increased due to improved profits, the operation rate of butanol increased due to the resumption of production at CNOOC Shell, and other downstream sectors had little change. In addition, in the Shandong region, due to the maintenance of some units, the supply decreased this period, while the demand increased slightly due to the resumption or increased load of some units, and the supply - demand gap decreased [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Profit Data - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil closed at $69.52, down $2.26 from the previous day and up $1.13 from the previous week; WTI crude oil closed at $67.26, down $2.1 from the previous day and up $2.19 from the previous week. Other upstream prices such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also had corresponding changes [8]. - **Mid - stream Prices**: FOB Korea was at $730, CFR China was at $765, etc. The prices in different regions in China, such as East China, Shandong, etc., also showed certain fluctuations [8]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of propylene oxide increased by 550 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the prices of other downstream products such as PP pellets, PP powder, etc., also had corresponding changes [1][3]. - **Profits**: The profit of major refineries was 976.96 yuan/ton, and the profit of local refineries was 225.17 yuan/ton. The profits of different production processes such as MTO, PDH, etc., also had different degrees of change [8][10]. 3.2 Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: The overall operation rate of propylene was 72.97% (- 0.86%), and the production was 1.1636 million tons (- 7,700 tons). The operation rate of major refineries was 81.55% (0.34%), the operation rate of independent refineries was 48.20% (+ 0.04%), the operation rate of steam cracking was 83.08% (+ 2.9%), the operation rate of PDH was 73.58% (- 1.72%), and the operation rate of MTO was 85.27% (+ 0.32%) [2]. - **Demand**: The operation rate of PP pellets was 76.94% (- 0.03%), and the production was 773,300 tons (- 300 tons); the operation rate of PP powder was 36.04% (- 2.95%), and the production was 65,000 tons (- 5,300 tons); the operation rate of propylene oxide was 72.87% (- 0.44%), and the production was 118,800 tons (- 700 tons). The operation rate of butanol increased to 96.29% (+ 8.63%) [3]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of propylene was 33,600 tons (+ 1,800 tons), and the inventory was generally moderately high [3]. - **Import and Export**: The price difference between China and South Korea has slightly narrowed recently but still remains open. South Korea had relatively more maintenance in July, and it is expected that the domestic imports will decrease slightly in July [4]. 3.3 Shandong Balance Sheet - The supply in the Shandong region decreased this week, and the demand increased. Dongming Petrochemical carried out maintenance on July 29, including 96,000 tons of MDH and 100,000 tons of catalytic cracking units; Jinhai's 210,000 - ton light hydrocarbon cracking unit was under maintenance on July 29, reducing the external supply. On the demand side, Dongming's 200,000 - ton PP unit was under maintenance, Jinneng's 450,000 - ton 3PP unit resumed production, and some units such as CNOOC Fine Chemical and Jinling Chemical increased their propylene oxide load slightly [6][8]. 3.4 Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions - **Upstream Operation**: The operation rate of major refineries was 81.55%, up 0.34% from the previous week; the operation rate of local refineries was 48.2%, up 0.04% from the previous week. The operation rates of different production processes such as naphtha cracking, MTO, etc., also had corresponding changes [38]. - **Mid - stream Propylene**: Propylene production was 1.1636 million tons, down 13,800 tons from the previous week; the operation rate was 72.97%, down 0.86% from the previous week; the in - plant inventory was 33,600 tons, up 1,800 tons from the previous week [38]. - **Downstream Products**: The production and operation rates of downstream products such as PP pellets, PP powder, propylene oxide, etc., also had corresponding changes. For example, the production of PP pellets was 773,300 tons, down 300 tons from the previous week; the operation rate was 76.94%, down 0.03% from the previous week [38]. 3.5 Device Maintenance Situation - **MTO**: Many MTO units such as Cornell Chemical, Changzhou Changde, etc., are in a long - term shutdown or maintenance state [40]. - **PDH**: Many PDH units such as Hebei Haiwei, Jiangsu Sierbang 2, etc., are in a shutdown, maintenance, or planned maintenance state [41]. 3.6 Supply and Demand in South Korea and Japan - **South Korea**: South Korea's propylene production, domestic trade, and inventory all showed certain seasonal characteristics. It is expected that the production will decrease slightly in July and increase after the resumption of production in August [4][165][166]. - **Japan**: Japan's propylene production, sales, and inventory also showed certain seasonal characteristics [170].