有机构指出，往后看驱动化工向好的因素颇多：短期看，春节后迎来旺季，预计存在补库涨价，全球产业链库存不高。3月 两会，观察"十五五"开局之年有无稳增长政策。全球降息周期，从海外消费传导到上游材料需求需要时间，预计下半年进 入加速期。 产能周期看，行业扩产高峰已过，主动型资本开支下降，诸多子行业产能增速为0，有的在出清途中。"十五五"规划建议， 对化工等传统行业提质升级，实现绿色低碳发展。最近无论是陕西出台对高耗能差别电价政策，还是国家取消部分大宗品 的出口退税，上层优化行业意图越发明显，促进供给侧改革。 化工供给增量及存量都会受到控制，简单低效扩产时代过去了。基于此，化工中长期景气向上，持续性可能会超越过去两 轮。久期拉长，估值也有望提升。重视化工的长牛、大机会。市场纠结的方面是有些股价提前打了一些预期，产品价格尚 未大涨。流动性充裕，长线资金提前布局，底部位置本身机构持仓比较低，如果预期后续确定基本面长周期向上，有大的 机会，提前几个月也算正常。 投资上，推荐两个方向，一个是顺周期弹性及成长（核心龙头公司；PTA/涤纶长丝、硅化工、纯碱/氯碱；钾肥/制冷剂/磷 化工等）；二个是成长类（新材料等）。 截至202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry has been in a downturn for approximately 3.5 years, with capital expenditure continuing to decline and outdated overseas capacity exiting the market, leading to a low growth phase for industry capacity. The industry is expected to see a cyclical turning point due to favorable supply-side factors and rapid growth in demand from sectors like new energy [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The chemical price index and profit margins are currently at low levels, with a 10.3% decline in China's chemical product price index from early 2025, placing it at the 10.4% percentile since 2012. The profit margin for chemical raw materials and products was only 4.14% from January to October 2025, the lowest since 2017 [1]. - The capital expenditure of petrochemical companies is projected to decrease by 18.3% in 2024 and 10.1% in the first three quarters of 2025, with construction projects down by 13.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The exit of outdated overseas capacity, particularly in Europe and Japan, is expected to alleviate global supply-demand imbalances for related products [2]. - The demand growth for bulk chemical products remains resilient, with expectations that the real estate sector will have a diminishing impact on chemical product demand growth by 2026 [2]. Group 3: Key Segments and Future Outlook - Early-cycle products such as chemical fibers are expected to see rapid consumption growth from 2020 to 2024, with chemical fibers projected to be among the fastest-growing bulk chemical products by 2026 [3]. - The industry is anticipated to experience a turning point in the capacity cycle, driven by favorable supply-side factors and rapid growth in demand for materials in the new energy sector [3]. - The company is optimistic about leading chemical firms with low valuations and expects significant profit growth in the chemical fiber supply chain, as well as in sectors like lithium battery materials and emerging industries related to AI and robotics [3].