化工板块今日（10月21日）震荡上行，反映化工 板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后多数时间 红盘震荡，截至发稿，场内价格涨0.55%。 成份股方面，民爆用品、钾肥、锂电、其他化学原料等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，广东宏大、 亚钾国际双双大涨超3%，藏格矿业涨超2%，杭氧股份、新宙邦、易普力等多股涨超1%。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 ▼ | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 图加 九龙 图技 工具 @ (2 > | | | 4. TETE O | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 100 | | | | 516020[化工ETF] 10:09 价 0.732 混跌 0.004(0.55%) 均价 0.731 威交量 4522 1. | | | | 11:44 | E | 0.732 | | +0.004 +0.55% | | 0.731 | | | | | | | | 0.41% | | SSE CNY 10:09:53 ...

公募基金方面，本期较上一期持股增加的公募基金共计1个，即化工ETF，持股增加占比达0.54%。本期 较上一季度持股减少的公募基金共计2个，包括诺德价值优势混合、南方中证500ETF，持股减少占比小 幅下跌。本期较上一季未再披露的公募基金共计288个，主要包括景顺长城成长龙头一年持有期混合A 类、景顺长城优选混合、景顺长城环保优势股票、景顺长城创新成长混合、兴业兴睿两年持有期混合A 等。 2025年10月18日，三棵树(603737.SH)发布2025年第三季报。截至2025年10月17日，共有9个机构投资者 披露持有三棵树A股股份，合计持股量达8668.33万股，占三棵树总股本的11.75%。其中，机构投资者 包括三棵树涂料股份有限公司-第五期员工持股计划、香港中央结算有限公司、景顺长城基金-中国人寿 保险股份有限公司-分红险-景顺长城基金国寿股份成长股票型组合单一资产管理计划(可供出售)、全国 社保基金五零三组合、全国社保基金四零四组合、华泰证券股份有限公司-鹏华中证细分化工产业主题 交易型开放式指数证券投资基金、中国农业银行股份有限公司-中证500交易型开放式指数证券投资基 金、全国社保基金四一三组合、中 ...

一、今日市场回顾 股市今日大幅回调，所有主要指数均收跌，所有板块均收于水面之下。高股息股表现出色而成长股受损最严重。反馈普遍认为，市场情绪降温源于区域政治 事件的不确定性和流动性减弱，但更多询问集中在"为什么是现在，为什么是今天"。这可能是由于不愿在整个周末持有大量风险敞口，也可能是投资者在假 期后经过一周的考虑，面对剧烈的市场风格转变而平仓。 具体来看，宏观扰动因素主要有以下两点： 持续的国际贸易摩擦忧虑，其实今天不止AH股，整个亚太股市都在收跌； 三、化工行业近期下跌原因：主要系宏观影响，行业方面磷化工回调显著 本周化工板块主要系磷化工回调显著，核心原因是部分资金关注Q3的涨价情况，在Q3涨价结束之后，Q4就会偏向淡季，那到淡季的时资金会做再平衡，因 此会产生调仓的过程。 此外部分短线资金，会在季报前埋伏，导致业绩放出后或者业绩下修后卖出，但是这并不影响对公司长期的价值判断。 四、化工行业基本面及后市展望 1、财报：Q3环比Q2略有增长，景气有所改善 2、基本面：从年度级别看化工板块仍处在历史的底部。 （1）价差：如下图红色的线条可以看到化工行业在历史的十年维度底部运行，甚至行业价差指数持续创十年最低点。 ...

10月14日，A股三大股指均出现不同程度的下跌，上证指数下跌0.62%，深证成指下跌2.54%，创业板指下跌3.99%。主流宽基指数中，科创50指数下跌 4.26%，跌幅相对居前。全市场仅1,740只股票上涨。港股主流指数集体收跌。其中，恒生中国央企指数下跌1.02%，跌幅相对较小。沪深两市成交额为25762 亿元人民币，相较上个交易日大幅增量，达2215亿。融资余额达24302亿元，再创历史新高。 | 证券名称 | 日涨跌幅 | 今年以来 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 北证50 | -0.22% | 43.01% | | 上证指数 | -0.62% | 15.32% | | 中证A50 | -1.13% | 12.95% | | 沪深300 | -1.20% | 15.35% | | 中证1000 | -1.95% | 23.76% | | 中证500 | -2.46% | 25.66% | | 深证成指 | -2.54% | 23.82% | | 科创100 | -3.98% | 48.48% | | 创业板指 | -3.99% | 38.03% | | 科创综指 | -4.00 ...

消息面上，国庆后六氟散单报价7.3万元吨，较9月低点上涨15%，部分厂商10月排产已锁满，Q4行业开 工率预计维持85%以上。 规模最大的化工ETF紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，中证细分产业主题指数系列由细分有色、细 分机械等7条指数组成，分别从相关细分产业中选取规模较大、流动性较好的上市公司证券作为指数样 本，以反映相关细分产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 化工ETF(159870)，场外联接(A：014942；C：014943；I：022792)。 券商研究方面，有关机构表示：（1）6-9月行业主动去库，主流厂商库存降至7天，低于安全库存15 天，Q4减产检修规模超2万吨，占季度供给20%;（2）出口方面，9月六氟出口量环比+22%，日韩电池 厂提前锁单缓解国内淡季需求缺口;（3）成本曲线陡峭，现金成本6.5万元/吨，价格若涨至8.5万元/吨， 龙头单吨净利修复至1.2万元，天际股份4.5万吨产能对应年化利润5.4亿元，2026年PE仅8x，为板块涨价 弹性最大标的;（4）复盘2019-2021年周期，六氟价格领先电解液涨价3-4个月，2026年Q2若锂电需求中 速增长六氟-电解液价差有望复制2021年行 ...

利空方面主要系固态电池涉及的6F、隔膜领域：昨日商务部、海关总署发布公告，对锂电池、正极材 料、石墨负极进行出口管制，其中锂电池包含能量密度≥300Wh/kg的电芯、电池组以及制造电池的设 备；正极材料包含压实密度≥2.5 g/cm3且克容量≥156mAh/g的铁锂、三元前驱体、富锂锰基、制造正极 的设备；负极材料包含人造石墨、人造天然混合的负极以及生产负极的相关设备。这一消息被市场解读 为重大利空，导致储能、锂电池、风电等板块集体下挫。 国金证券指出，化工产品之所具有明显的周期，核心在于供需错配，此次供给侧如果能够形成长期有效 的强约束，在企业决策、技术壁垒和项目审理都呈现出明显的不同，从而根本上改善周期性产品供给端 投放的长期趋势，带动周期性产品也能够获得较长时间的盈利空间。 截至2025年10月10日 14:42，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)成分股方面涨跌互现，新凤鸣(603225) 领涨4.92%，鲁西化工(000830)上涨3.30%，恒逸石化(000703)上涨2.85%；天赐材料(002709)领跌。化工 ETF(159870)最新报价0.74元，盘中净申购6.09亿份。 化工ETF ...

Core Insights - The report presents two industry rotation models: one based on similar expected return differentials and another based on changes in analyst expectations, both aimed at identifying investment opportunities in various sectors [11][22]. Group 1: Similar Expected Return Differential Model - The latest configuration suggests focusing on sectors such as coal, communication, basic chemicals, automotive, real estate, and machinery [21]. - In September 2025, the model achieved a monthly return of +4.56%, outperforming the equal-weighted industry index by +3.66% [21]. - The historical backtest from December 2016 to September 2025 shows that the model has a mean Information Coefficient (IC) of 0.09, indicating strong selection ability [14][15]. Group 2: Analyst Expectation Change Model - The latest configuration highlights sectors including non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, communication, steel, and computers [33]. - In September 2025, the model recorded a monthly return of +1.03%, with an excess return of +0.13% over the equal-weighted industry index [33]. - The historical backtest from December 2016 to September 2025 indicates a mean IC of 0.06, demonstrating significant industry selection capability [23][24]. Group 3: ETF Portfolio Construction - The recommended ETF portfolio for October 2025 includes sectors such as non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, and automotive [35]. - Specific ETFs listed include the Huabao CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF and the Southern CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF, among others, with significant fund shares [35].

Core Insights - The total scale of ETFs in the A-share market has reached a historic high of 5.63 trillion yuan as of September 30, with stock ETFs surpassing 3.7 trillion yuan and bond ETFs exceeding 690 billion yuan [1][2][4] - The ETF market has experienced significant growth this year, with total shares increasing by 362.78 billion shares and total scale growing by 1.84 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 13.72% and 48.47% respectively [4] - The rise in ETF scale is attributed to institutional investments from insurance, annuities, and pension funds, as well as individual investors seeking diversified and efficient investment tools [1][9] ETF Market Growth - The number of ETFs has increased to 1,325, with 274 new ETFs launched this year [5] - The trading volume of ETFs has also surged, with a total trading amount of 554.88 billion yuan on September 30, representing a year-on-year increase of 139.32% [5] - Seven ETFs have now surpassed the 100 billion yuan mark, with the addition of one new member compared to 2024 [6][8] Performance of Specific ETFs - The top three ETFs by share growth this year are the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, the Securities Company ETF, and the Chemical ETF, with increases of 59.59 billion shares, 38.18 billion shares, and 23.06 billion shares respectively [4] - The largest ETFs by scale include the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF at 425.58 billion yuan, followed by the E Fund CSI 300 ETF at 304.80 billion yuan [8] - ETFs tracking the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index have shown the best performance, with several achieving a net value growth rate exceeding 110% this year [4] Future Outlook - The trend towards index-based investment is expected to continue, driven by supportive policies and increased allocations from both institutional and individual investors [9] - The potential for more ETFs to enter the "trillion yuan club" is high, particularly those linked to the STAR Market and ChiNext indices, as market reforms are anticipated to enhance the attractiveness and competitiveness of the capital market [8][9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance and trends of various ETFs, highlighting significant movements in different sectors and the overall market sentiment as of September 30, 2025 [1][2][4]. Market Overview - The market temperature gauge indicates a 75% confidence level, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index showing historical P/E ratios at the 96.3%, 67.17%, and 52.45% percentiles respectively [1]. - The overall market performance shows a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.52%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.35%, and ChiNext Index remaining unchanged [1]. Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include real estate (+2.12%), non-ferrous metals (+3.22%), and defense industry (+2.59%) [2]. - Conversely, sectors experiencing declines include non-bank financials (-57.00 billion), telecommunications (-55.17 billion), and electric power equipment (-38.24 billion) [2]. ETF Performance - Notable ETFs include the Non-ferrous Metals ETF, which has increased by 50.00% over the past six months, and the Defense Industry ETF, which has risen by 2.59% [4]. - The Chemical Industry sector is highlighted for its recent strong performance, with the index showing a nearly 2% increase, marking five consecutive days of gains [6]. Investment Trends - The article emphasizes the ongoing development in the domestic AI industry, particularly the collaboration between AI models and chip technology, which is expected to accelerate breakthroughs in AI computing facilities [6]. - The chemical sector is noted for its potential recovery in profitability due to the ongoing optimization of supply and demand structures, driven by efforts to eliminate inefficient production capacity [6].

Core Viewpoint - The total scale of ETFs in China has reached a historical high of 5.63 trillion yuan, driven by increasing market participation from institutional and individual investors [2][3][6]. Market Overview - As of September 30, the total scale of ETFs in the market reached 5.63 trillion yuan, with stock ETFs exceeding 3.7 trillion yuan and bond ETFs surpassing 690 billion yuan, both marking historical highs [6][7]. - Year-to-date, the total number of ETF shares has increased by 362.78 billion shares, with a total scale growth of 1.84 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.72% in shares and 48.47% in scale [7]. ETF Performance - Stock ETFs have seen the largest scale growth this year, increasing by 820.82 billion yuan, while bond ETFs have experienced nearly a threefold increase, marking the fastest growth among ETF categories [8]. - The top three ETFs in terms of share growth are the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, the Securities Company ETF, and the Chemical ETF, with respective increases of 59.59 billion shares, 38.18 billion shares, and 23.06 billion shares [8]. Trading Activity - The trading volume of ETFs has also surged, with a total trading amount of 554.88 billion yuan as of September 30, representing a year-on-year increase of 323.03 billion yuan, or 139.32% [9]. Growth of Large-Scale ETFs - There are currently seven ETFs with scales exceeding 100 billion yuan, an increase of one compared to 2024 [12][14]. - The largest ETF is the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, with a scale of 425.58 billion yuan, followed by the E Fund CSI 300 ETF at 304.80 billion yuan [14][15]. Future Outlook - The increasing scale of ETFs is expected to continue, supported by favorable policies and a growing inclination towards index-based investment strategies among investors [15].