以下文章来源于波波夫同学 ，作者波波夫 波波夫同学 . 关注被技术异化的世界 本文来自微信公众号： 波波夫同学 ，作者：波波夫，题图来自：AI生成 最激进的变革还是来自美国。 美国公司Palantir在今年8月推出的精英奖学金计划，但直到前几周被《华尔街日报》等媒体曝光，这 才在全美引起轰动。 不再相信大学能培养人才 Palantir在官方声明中直言不讳： "美国大学已经迷失了方向，它们奖励平庸而非原创，奖励安全感 而非冒险。精英制度 （Meritocracy） 在大学里已经消失了。" 作为Palantir 的首席执行官，亚历克斯·卡普此前已经多次批评美国的高等教育，他说现代大学变成 了空话连篇的温床，与其招聘被大学灌输了四年特定意识形态的毕业生，不如在高中生还没被同化 前，就将他们招入公司进行实战培养。 Palantir这一招聘计划，在美国引发了激烈的两极分化讨论： 赞同派认为，认为这是打破阶级固化的创新。 在Hacker News这样的工程师社区中，就有不少人认 为，顶尖的高中生在技术能力上往往不亚于甚至超过普通大学生，直接参与实战项目 （如乌克兰战 场的支持工作、医院系统调度） 能让人成长更快。不过，更 ...

Market Overview - The Law Enforcement Software Market was valued at USD 18.86 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 40.82 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 10.13% from 2026 to 2033 [1]. Growth Drivers - The expanding use of digital tools for public safety management, crime prevention, and investigation is driving growth in the law enforcement software market [2]. - The adoption of automated platforms and digital technologies is enhancing operational efficiency in police and public safety organizations [4]. Market Segmentation By Component - The solutions segment dominated the market with over 68.25% market share in 2025, driven by the need for operational efficiency and advanced tools [5]. - The services segment is expected to grow at the highest CAGR of 10.57% during the forecast period due to the demand for continuous support and training [5]. By Deployment - The cloud segment represented more than 71.48% of the market share in 2025, favored for its scalability, cost-efficiency, and accessibility [7]. - The on-premises segment is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of over 10.63%, offering customizable solutions for agencies [7]. Regional Insights - North America accounted for more than 36.23% of the law enforcement software market in 2023, integrating advanced technologies like AI and Big Data analytics [8]. - The Asia Pacific region is experiencing the highest growth rate with a CAGR of over 12.25% from 2026 to 2033, driven by urbanization and demand for advanced public safety solutions [9]. Key Players and Developments - Notable companies in the market include Axon, Motorola Solutions, Tyler Technologies, IBM, and Oracle, among others [12]. - Recent developments include Axon's introduction of new AI-powered tools and Oracle's enhancements to its Public Safety Suite with officer-worn cameras and real-time analytics [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in skepticism regarding artificial intelligence (AI) has led to a decline in major stock indices, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% and the Nasdaq down 3%, marking the worst weekly performance since April [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Reactions - The stock prices of AI-focused companies Palantir and Nvidia have faced significant short-selling pressure, with Palantir experiencing a maximum drawdown of approximately 18% and Nvidia 16% from their highs, contributing to the overall poor performance of tech stocks [1] - Despite Palantir's stock price increasing nearly 200% over the past year, its static price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio reached as high as 1000 times, raising concerns about its valuation amidst strong growth in AI and data analytics [2] - Following a strong third-quarter earnings report, Palantir's stock saw a decline of nearly 9% as investors took profits, despite the company reporting revenue of $1.181 billion, a 63% year-over-year increase, and adjusted net income of $477 million, up 220% [2] Group 2: Valuation Concerns - Analysts have raised concerns about Palantir's valuation, with reports indicating that its valuation is over 200 times expected earnings for 2025 and sales multiples exceeding 80 times [2] - The company has adjusted its revenue expectations for 2025 from approximately $4.14–4.15 billion to about $4.4 billion, projecting an average annual revenue growth of around 25% and an earnings per share (EPS) growth of approximately 26%–30% [4] - Despite the strong growth projections, the high valuation poses challenges for Palantir to reduce its P/E ratio from 80 times to a more typical range of 30-40 times, which could take around three years [5] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Amidst market pessimism, some investment banks have raised their target prices for Palantir, with Bank of America increasing its target from $215 to $255, citing Palantir's unique AI solutions and strong growth in both government and commercial sectors [4] - In contrast, Citigroup maintains a neutral stance with a target price of $190, acknowledging the strong quarterly performance but highlighting the high expectations and extreme valuation reflected in the post-earnings stock price movement [4] - Overall, institutional sentiment remains cautiously optimistic about tech stocks, with expectations for a year-end "Santa Rally" despite recent volatility [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The skepticism surrounding AI investments is intensifying, with concerns about high spending and low returns, leading to significant declines in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Reactions - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.6% and the Nasdaq index dropped by 3%, marking the worst weekly performance since April [1] - Short selling of AI stocks, particularly Palantir and Nvidia, has heightened market panic, with Palantir and Nvidia experiencing maximum drawdowns of approximately 18% and 16% from their highs [1] - Despite strong quarterly earnings, Palantir's stock saw a nearly 9% drop as investors took profits [3] Group 2: Company Performance and Valuation - Palantir's stock price surged nearly 200% over the past year, with a static PE ratio reaching as high as 1000 [3] - The company reported Q3 revenue of $1.181 billion, a 63% year-over-year increase, and adjusted net profit of $477 million, up 220% year-over-year, exceeding expectations [3] - Palantir's valuation is considered extremely high, with reports indicating a PE ratio exceeding 200 times projected earnings for 2025 and a sales multiple over 80 times [3][5] Group 3: Analyst Opinions and Target Prices - Amid market pessimism, Bank of America raised Palantir's target price from $215 to $255, citing the company's strong growth and unique AI solutions [5] - Citigroup maintains a neutral stance with a target price of $190, acknowledging strong quarterly performance but highlighting extreme valuations [5] - Palantir's revenue forecast for 2025 was raised to approximately $4.4 billion, with expected annual revenue growth of about 25% and EPS projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 26%-30% [5] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite recent volatility, institutions remain optimistic about the tech sector, anticipating a "Santa Claus rally" by year-end [8] - Goldman Sachs noted that the recent market fluctuations are primarily due to profit-taking, with core drivers like financial conditions and economic growth still supporting upward price trends [8] - Morgan Asset Management emphasized that while there are doubts about the AI market, the overall narrative remains intact, suggesting that market adjustments could attract long-term investments [8]

Core Insights - Atwood & Palmer Inc. significantly reduced its position in Palantir Technologies by selling 211,505 shares for an estimated $34.28 million during Q3 2025, as reported in their SEC filing on October 15, 2025 [1][2]. Company Overview - Palantir Technologies is a leading provider of advanced data analytics and artificial intelligence software, serving both government and commercial sectors globally [5][7]. - As of October 14, 2025, Palantir's stock price was $179.74, with a market capitalization of $410.54 billion, revenue of $3.44 billion, and net income of $763.29 million for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4]. Investment Position - Following the sale, Palantir represents 4.83% of Atwood & Palmer's reportable U.S. equity assets, maintaining its status as the largest holding in the portfolio [3][8]. - The current value of Atwood & Palmer's remaining position in Palantir is approximately $82 million, down from a potential value of $221 million if the shares had been retained from two years ago [10]. Performance Metrics - Palantir's stock has increased by 314.1% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 299 percentage points [3]. - The price-to-sales ratio for Palantir is currently at 131, indicating potential concerns regarding its valuation [10]. Holdings Comparison - As of September 30, 2025, Atwood & Palmer's top holdings included Palantir Technologies at $82.16 million (4.8% of AUM), followed by Alphabet at $66.46 million (3.9% of AUM) [6].

Core Insights - Palantir Technologies Inc. is recognized as one of the best-performing NASDAQ stocks by hedge funds [1] - The company has denied claims regarding flaws in a battlefield communications system co-developed with Anduril, asserting that no vulnerabilities were found and concerns were part of the normal development process [1][2] - An internal US Army memo flagged "fundamental security" flaws in the NGC2 system, describing it as "very high risk" [2] - Army officials clarified that the memo is part of an ongoing process to address cybersecurity vulnerabilities, indicating that security gaps are typical in complex defense technology projects [3] Company Overview - Palantir Technologies Inc. is a US-based software and data analytics company that develops platforms for integrating, managing, and analyzing large datasets for decision-making [4] - Its core products include Palantir Gotham, Palantir Foundry, Palantir Apollo, and the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) [4]

Core Insights - Palantir's Gotham is transforming data-driven decision-making for various sectors, with plans to integrate and analyze large datasets by 2025 [1] - The platform enhances real-time analysis through AI and machine learning, improving threat detection and situational awareness [2][6] - Gotham's applications extend beyond defense to finance, healthcare, and disaster response, providing organizations with a competitive edge [4][6] Advanced Analytics - Gotham dynamically merges structured and unstructured data, enabling real-time insights [2] - Features such as geospatial mapping and network analysis enhance operational capabilities [2] Security and Collaboration - Gotham is designed with enterprise-grade security, allowing for collaborative work while ensuring data privacy [3] - The platform's user-friendly interface caters to both technical and non-technical users [3] Cross-Industry Applications - The versatility of Gotham supports various industries, driving operational efficiency and superior decision-making [4][6] AI Ecosystem - Palantir is positioned alongside NVIDIA and C3.ai in the AI landscape, with each company playing a distinct role in the technology cycle [5] - Investors should monitor NVIDIA's infrastructure dominance and C3.ai's enterprise expansion as they relate to Palantir's growth [5]

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant opportunities ahead for companies involved in AI solutions [1][3] - Oracle's recent fiscal results indicate strong demand for AI, with a substantial increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO) and multibillion-dollar contracts signed [5][7] - Palantir Technologies is well-positioned to benefit from Oracle's expansion in AI and cloud infrastructure services due to their partnership [12][16] Group 1: Oracle's Performance - Oracle reported a 12% year-over-year revenue increase to $14.9 billion for fiscal Q1 2026, with adjusted EPS rising 6% to $1.47 [5] - Despite falling short of analysts' expectations, Oracle's RPO surged 359% to a record $455 billion, indicating strong future revenue potential [6][7] - The company's cloud computing segment, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), is expected to grow significantly, with plans to expand its cloud footprint by more than sevenfold over the next five years [10][16] Group 2: Implications for Palantir - Palantir's AI Platform (AIP) has been a key growth driver, with its U.S. commercial segment growing 93% year over year [14] - The partnership with Oracle allows Palantir to leverage OCI for its Foundry workloads and AIP, making it accessible to a broader range of enterprise users [12][16] - Palantir's cloud revenue projections show significant growth, with fiscal 2026 expected to reach $18 billion, up 77%, and fiscal 2029 projected at $144 billion, up 97% [13]

Core Insights - Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) and Coherent Corp. (COHR) are significant players in the AI and data infrastructure sectors [1] Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) - Palantir specializes in enterprise-level AI software, focusing on data integration, large-scale analytics, and decision-making platforms [2] - The company's core platforms, including Palantir Gotham, Foundry, and Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), enable organizations to leverage data for real-time decision-making [2] - In Q2 2025, U.S. commercial revenues increased by 93% to $306 million, while U.S. government business rose by 53% to $426 million, indicating strong growth [4] - AIP allows clients to integrate autonomous AI agents into workflows, enhancing decision-making speed and productivity [5] - AIP bootcamps have accelerated client adoption, reducing time-to-value and receiving positive feedback for user-friendliness and scalability [6] - Total U.S. commercial contract value grew by 222% year-over-year in Q2, with remaining deal value increasing by 145% to $2.79 billion [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PLTR indicates a projected sales growth of approximately 46% and EPS growth of 59% year-over-year [16] Coherent Corp. (COHR) - Coherent reported a 51% revenue increase for fiscal 2025, driven by the demand for AI infrastructure in data centers and communications [8] - The data center segment alone surged by 61%, reflecting the global demand for high-bandwidth optical solutions [8] - Coherent's strategy includes ramping up new products, such as 1.6T transceivers, which are expected to significantly contribute to revenue in fiscal 2026 [9] - The company has expanded its indium phosphide (InP) capacity by 3X year-over-year, enhancing its manufacturing capabilities [10] - Coherent's revenues in communications rose by 42% year-over-year in Q4 fiscal 2025, driven by the adoption of high-speed coherent transceivers [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COHR indicates a projected sales growth of about 9% year-over-year and EPS growth of 29% [19] Valuation Comparison - COHR is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 18.93X, below its 12-month median of 28.04X, suggesting potential undervaluation [23] - In contrast, PLTR has a much higher forward P/E ratio of 202.65X, although still below its median of 267.56X [23] Investment Outlook - Palantir's rapid revenue growth and expanding U.S. commercial contracts position it favorably for near-term upside in the AI sector [24] - Coherent, while essential for AI hardware infrastructure, exhibits steadier growth that is more dependent on hardware cycles [24]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The impact of AI is not limited to software; various sectors are witnessing the rise of software companies seizing opportunities in the AI era, such as Applovin in advertising and Figma and Canva in visual design [1][15] - Companies with strong know-how, proprietary data, complex processes, or regulatory barriers are less likely to be disrupted by large models; instead, these models may enhance their competitive advantages [2][20] - The development of open-source models is beneficial for software companies, allowing them to develop independently or negotiate better with closed-source models [19] Industry Trends - The report highlights a significant growth in AI-related revenues, with OpenAI's annual recurring revenue surpassing $13 billion and Anthropic's revenue reaching $4 billion, a fourfold increase since the beginning of the year [12] - Concerns about AI disrupting software have led to stock declines in companies like Adobe (down 23%) and ManpowerGroup (down 30%) [14] - The report identifies three types of AI agents: user-created agents, vendor-provided agents, and enterprise-deployed agents, indicating a shift towards personalized and automated solutions [3][37] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in computing power, such as Cambrian, Hygon Information, and others, as well as those developing AI agents like Alibaba and Tencent [7][53] - It also mentions companies in the autonomous driving sector, including Jianghuai Automobile and Xiaopeng Motors, as potential investment opportunities [54]