（原标题：Counterpoint Research：尽管关税问题持续存在 2025年Q3美国智能手机出货量仍同比小幅增 长） 智通财经APP获悉，Counterpoint Research发文称，尽管关税问题持续存在，2025 年 Q3 美国智能手机出 货量仍同比小幅增长。虽然来自中国的进口量有所下降，但来自越南和印度等地区的进口却有所增加， 使本季度整体出货量有所增长。苹果得出货份额同比和环比均有所下降，但由于年初 iPhone 16e 表现强 劲，该智能手机品牌的年度出货量仍保持增长。iPhone 17 系列出货一直保持稳定，但也面临着强劲需 求带来的挑战。三星同比小幅增长 1 个基点，但环比下滑 3 个基点，主要是因为谷歌的同比和环比均强 劲增长。由于宏观经济和政治因素影响导致预付费需求疲软，导致摩托罗拉在 Q3 表现走弱，其份额同 比和环比均有所下降。 市场亮点 尽管美国在 4 月宣布征收关税，但 2025 年 Q2 美国智能手机出货量仍同比增长2%。虽然来自中国的进 口量有所下降，但来自越南和印度等其他地区的进口量却有所增加，使整体出货量实现增长。 由于本季度安卓系统的出货量增幅高于iOS系统，苹 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the smartphone market trends and shipment volumes, highlighting the performance of major brands in the U.S. market for Q3 2025 and the impact of various economic factors on these trends [4][8][11]. Market Highlights - Despite ongoing tariff issues, U.S. smartphone shipments saw a slight year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, attributed to a rise in imports from Vietnam and India, compensating for the decline in imports from China [8][11]. - Apple experienced a decline in market share both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, yet maintained growth in annual shipments due to strong performance from the iPhone 16e. The iPhone 17 series shipments remained stable but faced challenges from strong demand [8][11]. - Samsung's market share saw a minor increase of 1 basis point year-on-year but a decrease of 3 basis points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to strong growth from Google [8][11]. - Motorola's performance weakened in Q3 due to soft prepaid demand influenced by macroeconomic and political factors, leading to a decline in its market share [8][11]. - HMD exited the U.S. market, prompting a cessation of tracking for this brand by the research firm [8][11]. Brand Performance - In Q2 2024, Apple held a 52% market share, which increased to 53% in Q3 2024, but dropped to 50% by Q3 2025. Samsung's share fluctuated, reaching 24% in Q3 2024 and stabilizing at 24% in Q3 2025. Lenovo's share remained consistent at 12% during the same period [9][15]. - The overall smartphone shipment volume in Q1 2025 increased by 9% year-on-year, driven by preemptive stocking to avoid potential tariff impacts, particularly in March [15][21]. - Motorola achieved its highest market share of 11% in Q1 2025, attributed to the early launch of its G series and improved positioning in the prepaid market [15][21]. Economic Impact - The article notes that the U.S. smartphone market faced a 9% year-on-year decline in Q4 2024, influenced by low upgrade rates and extended upgrade cycles. Apple and Samsung both experienced declines in shipments during this period [18][21]. - In Q3 2024, the U.S. smartphone market saw a 6% year-on-year decline, primarily due to weak demand in both prepaid and postpaid channels [21].

Group 1 - The report highlights that large model technology continues to iterate, leading to an innovation wave in consumer electronics driven by AI integration [5][21][30] - Traditional consumer electronics have entered a phase of slow growth, with smartphones and PCs stabilizing in sales, while TWS devices are also experiencing low growth [15][19] - The development of model compression technology lays the foundation for deploying large models on edge devices, which offer low cost, high performance, and privacy advantages [6][30] Group 2 - The penetration rate of AI terminals is expected to rise rapidly as major companies like Google and Huawei launch AI-enabled devices, enhancing user experience [6][34] - The report predicts a compound annual growth rate of approximately 115% for high-end AI PCs and 32% for AI smartphones from 2023 to 2027 [6][52] - The introduction of system-level AI capabilities in smartphones and PCs is anticipated to set new standards in the industry, prompting other manufacturers to follow suit [36][40] Group 3 - The demand for ASICs is strong, driven by their cost-effectiveness compared to GPUs, leading many tech companies to develop their own ASICs [7][75] - The global market for ASICs is projected to grow from $6.6 billion in 2023 to $55 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 53% [7][76] - OpenAI's recent decision to rent Google TPU for its products marks a significant milestone for ASICs, indicating their acceptance by leading AI firms [7][76] Group 4 - The report suggests focusing on companies within the edge AI and ASIC supply chains, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the electronics sector [8][9] - Specific companies to watch in the edge AI sector include Rockchip, Hengxuan Technology, and Espressif Technology, while those in the ASIC space include Chipone and Aojie Technology [8][9]