Omdia 研究经理周乐轩（Le Xuan Chiew）表示："入门级智能手机出货量波动性越来越大，管理难度提 升，但仍然是市场份额排名的关键因素。"品牌策略方面，OPPO和vivo更注重价值而非出货量，而荣耀 和小米则通过增加出货量来扩大品牌渗透。例如，荣耀X6c借助更广的渠道覆盖推动销量，使荣耀第三 季度出货量较2024年同期翻倍。 他补充道："经历了2025年上半年市场低迷后，厂商进入下半年时库存水平更健康，预计将采取更积极 的策略，包括提前推出第三季度新品。受内存和存储价格上涨推动的物料成本上升，将对低价设备带来 显著压力。鉴于东南亚市场价格高度敏感，超过60%的智能手机售价低于200美元，这一影响尤为明 显。为了应对成本上升，厂商需要在保持竞争力价格与调整售价、降低硬件成本或缩减营销投入以保护 利润率之间做出权衡。"（旺旺） 【环球网科技综合报道】11月18日，Omdia最新研究数据显示，2025年第三季度，东南亚地区智能手机 市场同比下滑1%，出货量达2560万部，连续第三个季度出现同比下跌。 来源：环球网 ...

Core Insights - Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by strong performances in emerging markets like India, MEA, Japan, and parts of Asia-Pacific, despite declines in mature markets such as North America and Europe [1] Market Performance - Developed markets continue to show strong demand for high-end models, while emerging markets are increasingly favoring affordable 5G devices [1] - The Chinese market is experiencing a slowdown due to inventory reduction strategies, and consumer confidence in Latin America remains weak, leading to moderate overall growth [1] - Japan's smartphone market saw a 15% year-on-year growth, supported by the strong sales of iPhone 16 and iPhone 16e, as well as Samsung's Galaxy S25 series [1] Regional Highlights - The MEA region experienced a 14% year-on-year increase in shipments, primarily driven by strong performances from Samsung and Xiaomi, with Apple leading the high-end segment [1] - In India, smartphone shipments grew by 9% year-on-year, benefiting from early festive season demand, government relief measures improving consumer sentiment, and widespread adoption of high-end and mid-range models due to aggressive discounts and promotions [1] Brand Performance - Samsung led the global market in Q3 2025 with a 19% shipment share and a 6% year-on-year growth, driven by the strong performance of the Galaxy A series and the new Galaxy Z Fold7 [4] - Apple recorded a 9% year-on-year growth, making it the fastest-growing brand among the top five, with significant growth in Japan, China, Western Europe, and parts of Asia-Pacific [4] - Xiaomi maintained a 14% shipment share with a 2% year-on-year growth, particularly strong in Southeast Asia, MEA, and Latin America, benefiting from operator partnerships and promotional activities [4] - OPPO and vivo ranked fourth and fifth globally, with OPPO achieving growth through affordable 5G models in Southeast Asia and MEA, while vivo maintained steady growth in India and Southeast Asia [4] Other Notable Brands - Google saw an 18% year-on-year increase in shipments, with its Pixel 9 series performing well, supported by the integration of AI features and regional expansion strategies [5]

Core Insights - Global smartphone shipments are projected to slightly decline to 288.9 million units in Q2 2025 due to moderate consumer demand, leading to suppressed market growth [1] - Samsung retains the top position in global shipments with 57.5 million units, a 7% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by the Galaxy A series targeting the mass market [1] - Apple ranks second with 44.8 million iPhone units shipped, experiencing a 2% decline, facing challenges from intense competition in China and inventory adjustments in the U.S. market [1] - Xiaomi holds the third position with 42.4 million units shipped, showing strong performance in Latin America and Africa [1] - Vivo ranks fourth with 26.4 million units, a 2% increase, particularly strong in the Indian market [1] - Transsion is fifth with 24.6 million units shipped, reflecting a 3% decline [1] Global Market Overview - In the worldwide smartphone vendor rankings for Q2 2025, Samsung leads with a 20% market share and a 7% annual growth, followed by Apple at 16% with a 2% decline, and Xiaomi at 15% with no growth [1] - Vivo and Transsion hold 9% market shares each, with Vivo growing by 2% and Transsion declining by 3% [1] Regional Insights Latin America - Samsung leads with a 32% market share and an 8% growth, followed by Xiaomi at 20% with an 8% growth [3] - Lenovo holds 15% with a 10% decline, while Honor shows significant growth at 8% with a 70% increase [3] Europe - Samsung has a 31% market share but a 10% decline, while Xiaomi grows by 11% to 23% [3] - Apple holds 21% with a 4% decline, and Lenovo and realme have 5% and 4% shares respectively [3] Mainland China - Huawei leads with an 18% market share and a 15% growth, followed closely by Vivo at 17% with a 10% decline [5] - OPPO and Xiaomi both have 16% and 15% shares respectively, with Xiaomi growing by 3% [5] India - Vivo dominates with a 21% market share and a 31% growth, followed by Samsung at 16% with a 2% growth [6] - OPPO and Xiaomi both hold 13% shares, with OPPO growing by 24% and Xiaomi declining by 25% [6] United States - Apple leads with a 49% market share but a 10% decline, while Samsung follows with 31% and a significant 38% growth [7] - Lenovo and Google hold 12% and 3% shares respectively, with Google growing by 11% [7] Brazil - Samsung leads with a 40% market share but a 3% decline, followed by Lenovo at 24% with an 8% decline [8] - Xiaomi holds 17% with no growth, while Apple has 5% with a 9% decline [8] Mexico - Samsung leads with a 23% market share but a 2% decline, followed by Xiaomi at 18% with a 13% decline [9] - Lenovo and OPPO have 12% and 10% shares respectively, with OPPO declining by 14% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price has recently declined, reaching a two-month low, primarily due to downward revisions in smartphone shipment forecasts, particularly in the Indian market [1][2] Group 1: Smartphone Market Performance - Xiaomi's smartphone shipment volume for Q2 2025 is expected to be slightly lower than previous forecasts, with a 25% year-on-year decline in the Indian market impacting overall performance [1] - The global smartphone market experienced a 1% decline in shipments compared to the same period last year, marking the first drop in six consecutive quarters [1] - Despite a stable performance, Xiaomi achieved a historical high of 15% market share globally in Q2 2025, although this was accompanied by a decrease in gross margin [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Total revenue for Xiaomi in Q2 2025 is projected to be 112.6 billion RMB, slightly below market expectations, while adjusted net profit is forecasted at 10.2 billion RMB, aligning with market expectations [1] - Forecasts for IoT revenue in the second half of 2025 have been revised downward due to changes in national subsidy policies [1] Group 3: Electric Vehicle Business - Xiaomi's electric vehicle deliveries are expected to reach 82,000 units in Q2 2025, benefiting from the delivery of the SU7 Ultra, with an average selling price of 242,000 RMB and an improved gross margin of 25% [1] - The company has initiated deliveries of the YU7 in July, with the second-phase factory expected to commence production by the end of September [1] Group 4: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Due to downward revisions in smartphone gross margin forecasts, analysts have lowered Xiaomi's earnings per share estimates for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 7%, and reduced the target price from 78 HKD to 72 HKD [2] - Nomura has raised Xiaomi's target price by 79% to 61 HKD based on SOTP valuation but downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to limited upside potential [2] - Analysts expect Xiaomi to face challenges in the coming quarters, including lower-than-expected smartphone shipments and high market expectations for its electric vehicle business [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price fell over 5% to HKD 51.2, marking a new low since June 13, 2023, ahead of its Q2 2025 earnings announcement on August 19, 2023 [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Daiwa forecasts Xiaomi's Q2 2025 smartphone shipments to be slightly below previous estimates, primarily due to a 25% year-on-year decline in the Indian market [1] - Despite achieving a historical high global market share of 15% in Q2 2025, this was at the cost of declining gross margins [1] - Total revenue for Q2 2025 is projected at RMB 112.6 billion, slightly below market expectations, while adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 10.2 billion, in line with market expectations [1] Group 2: Adjustments and Ratings - Daiwa has revised down its IoT revenue forecast for the second half of 2025, reflecting changes in national subsidy policies [1] - Due to the downward revision of smartphone gross margin forecasts, Daiwa has lowered Xiaomi's earnings per share estimates for 2025-2027 by 2%-7% [1] - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 78 to HKD 72, based on an average P/E ratio of 36 times for 2025-2026, down from 38 times, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 3: Risks - Key risks include macroeconomic headwinds and slower-than-expected ramp-up in electric vehicle production capacity [1]

Canalys最新研究显示，2025年第二季度，美国智能手机出货量同比增长1%，厂商在关税担忧下持续提 前备货。中国组装的智能手机在美国出货中的占比已从2024年第二季度的61%大幅下降至2025年第二季 度的25%。大部分份额由印度承接——"印度制造"的智能手机出货量同比激增240%，目前已占美国进 口智能手机总量的44%，而2024年第二季度这一比例仅为13%。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Canalys最新研究显示，2025年第二季度，美国智能手机出货量同比增长1%，厂商在关税担忧下持续提 前备货。第二季度，iPhone出货量同比下滑11%，降至1330万部，回调幅度明显。三星出货量同比大增 38%，达到830万部。摩托罗拉延续其在美国市场的稳步扩张，同比增长2%，出货量达320万部。 ...

Core Insights - In Q2 2025, China's smartphone shipments declined by 2.4% year-on-year, attributed to seasonal factors and demand front-loading due to subsidies [1] - Huawei maintained its leading position for the second consecutive quarter, increasing its market share from 15% to 18.1% year-on-year, driven by strong sales of the mid-range nova 14 series and significant price reductions on high-end models [1] - Vivo ranked second in shipments, supported by its strong offline channel network and the successful performance of its Y series in lower-tier cities, along with a surge in demand for the newly launched S30 series during back-to-school promotions [4] - OPPO successfully launched the Reno 14 series before the 618 shopping festival, continuing the strong sales momentum of the Reno 13 series, while its sub-brand OnePlus achieved notable growth by focusing on the gaming experience [4] - Xiaomi recorded the second-fastest growth rate in Q2 2025 with a market share of 15.7%, maintaining growth through price reductions on popular models like Redmi K80 and Xiaomi 15, despite not launching new mid-range products during promotions [5] - Apple performed strongly during the 618 shopping festival due to unprecedented price cuts on the iPhone 16 series, particularly the Pro models, although this may pressure sales of the iPhone 17 base model in the second half of the year [5] - Honor is responding to intense market competition by expanding its product lineup, with the mid-range HONOR 400 series launched at the end of May showing promising initial results [5] Industry Outlook - The demand for smartphones in China remains weak, aligning with previous expectations from Counterpoint, although promotions and subsidies have provided some support for stable sales [6] - Counterpoint anticipates a year-on-year growth in the Chinese market for 2025, albeit at a slower pace, with summer promotions and the early release of flagship products in Q3 expected to boost sales and lay a solid foundation for Q4 performance [6] - The industry will continue to monitor the evolving global market landscape, particularly regarding tariff policies, rising component costs, and changes in consumer demand [6]

Core Insights - The Chinese smartphone market is experiencing a decline, with Q2 2025 shipments at 69 million units, a year-over-year decrease of 4.0% [1][2] - Huawei regained the top position in the market with a shipment of 12.5 million units, capturing an 18.1% market share [1][2] - Other major players include vivo, OPPO, Xiaomi, and Apple, with respective shipments of 11.9 million, 10.7 million, 10.4 million, and 9.6 million units [1][2] Market Performance - The total smartphone shipments in China for Q2 2025 were 69 million units, down from 71.8 million units in Q2 2024, reflecting a 4.0% decline [2] - The market share distribution for Q2 2025 shows Huawei leading with 18.1%, followed by vivo at 17.3%, OPPO at 15.5%, Xiaomi at 15.1%, and Apple at 13.9% [2] - Year-over-year growth rates for major companies indicate a decline for Huawei (-3.4%), vivo (-10.1%), OPPO (-5.0%), and Apple (-1.3%), while Xiaomi experienced a growth of 3.4% [2] Year-to-Date Performance - In the first five months of 2025, smartphone shipments totaled 109 million units, a decrease of 4.9% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The domestic market's performance in May 2025 showed shipments of 22.5 million units, marking a significant year-over-year decline of 21.2% [1]

| Company | 2025Q2 Shipments | | 2025Q2 Market Share | 2024Q2 Shipments | 20240 Market S | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. Huawei | | 12.5 | 18.1% | 12.9 | 18.00 | | 2. vivo | | 11.9 | 17.3% | 13.3 | 18.5 | | 3. OPPO | | 10.7 | 15.5% | 11.3 | 15.7 | | 4. Xiaomi | | 10.4 | 15.1% | 10.1 | 14.19 | | 5. Apple | | 9.6 | 13.9% | 9.7 | 13.5 | | Others | | 13.8 | 20.0% | 14.5 | 20.2 | | Total | | 69.0 | 100.0% | 71.8 | 100.0 | IDC：中国第二季度智能手机出货量同比下降4.0% 智通财经7月15日电，据国际数据公司（IDC），中国第二季度智能手机出货量同比下降4.0%；苹果第二季度 ...