要点 Omdia最新研究显示，2025年欧洲智能手机市场出货量下滑1%，至1.342亿部，标志着这一受需求低迷及环 保设计和USB-C新规影响的动荡年份落下帷幕。 三星 仍是欧洲最大的智能手机厂商，出货量小幅增长至4660万部。由于Galaxy A0x系列缺席，三星在2025年 上半年表现低迷，但在2025年下半年强势反弹，这主要得益于降价版Galaxy A16，以及销量强劲的Galaxy A56 带来的增益——该机也是2025年欧洲最畅销的机型。 苹果 新品受到消费者和企业的强烈欢迎，iPhone换机需求激增，苹果2025年的出货量增长6%至3690万部，在 欧洲创下27%的历史最高市场份额。其业绩表现尤其受到iPhone 16、iPhone 16和iPhone 17的Pro Max版本以及 iPhone 16e的驱动。与全球其他市场相比，iPhone 16e是苹果出货量最高的机型之一，主要原因是它接替了因 USB C法规在2024年底停产的iPhone 14及更早机型。 小米 以16%的市场份额继续位居第三，出货量下滑1%至2180万部，主要依靠高性价比的红米系列。2025年 末，小米"新零售战略"的海外 ...

Group 1 - Apple achieved a record annual shipment of 240.6 million iPhones in 2025, marking a 7% year-on-year increase and maintaining its position as the global leader for the third consecutive year [5] - In Q4, Apple set a new quarterly shipment record, with a 26% year-on-year growth in the Chinese mainland market, driven primarily by demand for the iPhone 17 series [5] Group 2 - Xiaomi shipped 165.4 million units in 2025, retaining its position as the third-largest global smartphone manufacturer, although its Q4 shipments declined by 2% [6] - Vivo entered the global top four for the first time with shipments of 105.3 million units, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth [6] - OPPO shipped 100.7 million units, experiencing a 3% year-on-year decline, but returned to growth in Q4 due to new product launches [6] Group 3 - The report indicates that rising costs of key components and memory chips at the end of the year have begun to suppress shipment expectations for 2026 [6] Group 4 - In 2025, the market share of the top ten global smartphone manufacturers was as follows: Apple 19%, Samsung 19%, Xiaomi 13%, Vivo 8%, OPPO 8%, Transsion 8%, Honor 6%, Lenovo 5%, Huawei 4%, and Realme 3% [7]

Core Insights - Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 2% in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units, marking the highest level since 2021, with all regions except Greater China experiencing year-on-year growth [1] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a 4% year-on-year increase in global smartphone shipments, driven by seasonal factors and strong vendor performance, although rising costs of key components began to suppress expectations for 2026 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Apple achieved a record annual shipment of 240.6 million iPhones in 2025, a 7% increase year-on-year, maintaining its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer for the third consecutive year [4] - Samsung rebounded in 2025 with a 7% year-on-year increase in shipments, closing the year with a strong fourth quarter, driven by resilient demand for flagship models and a recovery in the entry-level market [4] - Xiaomi defended its top three position despite a 2% decline in fourth-quarter shipments, impacted by weak entry-level demand and significant market contraction [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Vivo entered the fourth position for the first time, with a 4% year-on-year increase in shipments to 10.53 million units, supported by success in the Indian market and stable domestic performance [5] - OPPO ranked fifth, with annual shipments of 10.07 million units, experiencing a 3% year-on-year decline, but returning to growth in the fourth quarter with the launch of new models [5] - Despite challenges, several manufacturers outside the top five maintained positive growth, with Honor and Lenovo achieving year-on-year increases of 11% and 6%, respectively [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Concerns for 2026 are emerging due to escalating supply-side pressures on DRAM, NAND, and other semiconductors, which may compress profit margins and force price adjustments [8] - Companies must effectively manage supply chain pressures and strengthen long-term partnerships to mitigate the impact of rising costs on consumer demand [8] - The focus for manufacturers will shift towards profitability and exploring alternative revenue sources, with a strategic opportunity to capture upgrade demand and ensure market share sustainability [11]

Core Insights - Omdia's latest research indicates that global smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 2% in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units, marking the highest level since 2021. All regions except Greater China are projected to see year-on-year growth, while mainland China is expected to experience a slight decline due to underwhelming effects of national subsidy policies in 2025 [1][9] Group 1: Market Performance - In Q4 2025, global smartphone shipments increased by 4% year-on-year, driven by seasonal factors and strong performance from manufacturers. However, rising costs of key components and memory are beginning to suppress shipment forecasts for 2026 [2] - Apple achieved a record annual shipment high in 2025, with iPhone shipments growing by 7% to 240.6 million units, maintaining its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer globally for the third consecutive year. The fourth quarter saw the highest single-quarter iPhone shipments, with mainland China market growth of 26% driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series [5] - Samsung rebounded significantly in 2025 after three consecutive years of decline, with a 7% year-on-year increase in shipments, slightly below Apple's figures. The company ended the year strongly with a 16% increase in Q4 shipments, supported by resilient demand for flagship models and a recovery in the mass market [5] - Xiaomi maintained its top three position in 2025 despite facing challenges at year-end, with a 2% decline in Q4 shipments. The company's strategy of expanding its product range from entry-level to high-end models, along with AIoT products, is central to its value growth [6] - Vivo entered the fourth position for the first time, with a 4% year-on-year increase in shipments to 10.53 million units, benefiting from continued success in the Indian market and stable performance in the domestic market. OPPO ranked fifth, with annual shipments of 10.07 million units, down 3% year-on-year [6] Group 2: Emerging Trends and Challenges - Outside the top five, several manufacturers continued to show positive growth despite a challenging market environment. Honor and Lenovo grew by 11% and 6% respectively, achieving historical highs. Huawei regained the top position in mainland China for the first time in five years, while Nothing became the fastest-growing manufacturer in 2025, with shipments surging by 86% to over 3 million units [7] - Omdia's senior analyst highlighted that while 2025 was positive for most manufacturers, concerns about the outlook for 2026 have emerged. Supply-side pressures on DRAM, NAND, and other semiconductors are causing significant worry among manufacturers, potentially compressing profit margins and forcing price adjustments, which could ultimately suppress consumer demand [9][11] - As market contraction becomes increasingly inevitable in 2026, manufacturers will focus on profitability and explore alternative revenue sources. The current market volatility presents a competitive window for manufacturers, suppliers, and partners to quickly respond to challenges and capture opportunities among upgrade and replacement users [11][12]

Group 1 - The global smartphone market is expected to see a second consecutive year of growth in 2025, with a 2% year-on-year increase in shipments, driven by high-end trends and the rising adoption of 5G devices in emerging markets [1] - Apple leads the market with a 20% share and a 10% year-on-year growth, making it the fastest-growing brand [1] - Samsung follows closely with a 19% market share, while Xiaomi holds the third position with 13% [1] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, smartphone shipments showed a modest increase of 1% year-on-year, impacted by previous inventory buildup [4] - Apple achieved a record high with a quarter of global shipments, supported by its expansion in emerging and mid-tier markets, and strong demand for the iPhone 17 series [4] - Samsung's growth is attributed to the demand for the Galaxy A series in the mid-range market and strong performance of the Galaxy Fold 7 and S25 series in the high-end market [4] Group 3 - Xiaomi maintained a stable performance with a 13% market share, supported by its high-end strategy and strong demand in emerging markets [5] - Vivo ranked fourth, achieving a 3% year-on-year growth due to its high-end strategy and strong execution in the Indian market [5] - OPPO experienced a 4% year-on-year decline in shipments, facing challenges in the Chinese and Asia-Pacific markets despite growth in India and the Middle East [5] Group 4 - The merger of realme with OPPO and OnePlus is expected to result in a combined market share of 11%, positioning them as the fourth-largest player in the global smartphone market [5] - The outlook for the smartphone market in 2026 is cautious, with a 3% downward revision in shipment forecasts due to supply shortages and rising prices [6] - Apple and Samsung are expected to remain resilient due to their strong supply chain capabilities and positioning in the high-end market, while Chinese brands focusing on lower price segments may face greater pressure [6]

Core Insights - Despite ongoing tariff issues, U.S. smartphone shipments are expected to see a slight year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, driven by rising imports from Vietnam and India, even as imports from China decline [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - In Q2 2025, U.S. smartphone shipments grew by 2% year-on-year, attributed to increased imports from regions outside China [2] - Apple's market share has declined both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, although the iPhone 16e has shown strong performance, maintaining annual shipment growth [1][3] - Samsung experienced a slight year-on-year increase of 1 basis point, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3 basis points, primarily due to strong growth from Google [1][3] - Motorola's performance weakened in Q3, with declines in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter market share, attributed to soft prepaid demand influenced by macroeconomic and political factors [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Samsung achieved a double-digit year-on-year growth, benefiting from increased shipments of high-end models, raising its market share by 3 basis points to 27% [3] - Motorola has maintained a double-digit market share for five consecutive quarters, driven by competitive pressure in the prepaid market and an early launch of the RAZR 2025 series [3][4] - HMD's exit from the U.S. market creates new opportunities for other smartphone brands to capture market share [4] Group 3: Historical Trends - In Q1 2025, smartphone shipments increased by 9% year-on-year, largely due to preemptive stocking to avoid potential tariff impacts, especially in March [5] - Apple's market share reached a record high of 57% in Q1 2025, driven by the launch of the iPhone 16e and early shipments before April [5] - Samsung's market share fell from 31% in Q1 2024 to 25%, partly due to increased shipments from Apple and weaker performance of the S25 model [5]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is expected to surpass Samsung in global smartphone shipments by 2025, marking its return to the top position after 14 years [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Apple is projected to ship approximately 243 million iPhones this year, while Samsung's shipments are expected to be around 235 million [1] - Apple's market share in the global smartphone market is anticipated to reach 19.4%, slightly above Samsung's 18.7% [1] - The strong performance of Apple is attributed to the iPhone 17 series launched in September, which has seen explosive sales during the holiday season [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The current consumer upgrade cycle, particularly among those who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 pandemic, is driving a new wave of demand [2] - The iPhone 17 series has outperformed the iPhone 16 series by 12% in the first four weeks of launch in the U.S., and in China, sales have increased by 18% compared to the previous generation [1][2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Samsung may face challenges in reclaiming the top position due to intense competition from Chinese manufacturers in the mid-to-low-end market [2] - Counterpoint predicts that Apple will maintain its leading position in the global smartphone market at least until 2029, supported by a large base of users upgrading from the 358 million second-hand iPhones sold from 2023 to mid-2025 [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Apple plans to launch an entry-level iPhone 17e and a foldable phone next year, with a major design upgrade for the iPhone expected in 2027 [2] - The expansion of Apple's product line and its strategic focus on emerging markets and the "light luxury" segment are expected to enhance its appeal and maintain its competitive edge [3]

Group 1 - The Southeast Asian smartphone market is projected to decline by 1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with shipments reaching 25.6 million units, marking the third consecutive quarter of decline [1][3] - Entry-level smartphone shipments are experiencing increased volatility, making management more challenging, yet they remain a key factor in market share rankings [3] - OPPO and vivo are focusing on value rather than volume, while Honor and Xiaomi are increasing shipments to enhance brand penetration, with Honor's Q3 shipments doubling compared to the same period in 2024 [3] Group 2 - After a sluggish first half of 2025, manufacturers are expected to adopt more aggressive strategies in the second half, including the early launch of new products, due to healthier inventory levels [3] - Rising material costs driven by increased memory and storage prices will significantly impact low-priced devices, especially in a price-sensitive market where over 60% of smartphones are priced below $200 [3] - Manufacturers will need to balance competitive pricing with adjustments in selling prices, reductions in hardware costs, or cuts in marketing expenditures to protect profit margins [3]

Core Insights - Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by strong performances in emerging markets like India, MEA, Japan, and parts of Asia-Pacific, despite declines in mature markets such as North America and Europe [1] Market Performance - Developed markets continue to show strong demand for high-end models, while emerging markets are increasingly favoring affordable 5G devices [1] - The Chinese market is experiencing a slowdown due to inventory reduction strategies, and consumer confidence in Latin America remains weak, leading to moderate overall growth [1] - Japan's smartphone market saw a 15% year-on-year growth, supported by the strong sales of iPhone 16 and iPhone 16e, as well as Samsung's Galaxy S25 series [1] Regional Highlights - The MEA region experienced a 14% year-on-year increase in shipments, primarily driven by strong performances from Samsung and Xiaomi, with Apple leading the high-end segment [1] - In India, smartphone shipments grew by 9% year-on-year, benefiting from early festive season demand, government relief measures improving consumer sentiment, and widespread adoption of high-end and mid-range models due to aggressive discounts and promotions [1] Brand Performance - Samsung led the global market in Q3 2025 with a 19% shipment share and a 6% year-on-year growth, driven by the strong performance of the Galaxy A series and the new Galaxy Z Fold7 [4] - Apple recorded a 9% year-on-year growth, making it the fastest-growing brand among the top five, with significant growth in Japan, China, Western Europe, and parts of Asia-Pacific [4] - Xiaomi maintained a 14% shipment share with a 2% year-on-year growth, particularly strong in Southeast Asia, MEA, and Latin America, benefiting from operator partnerships and promotional activities [4] - OPPO and vivo ranked fourth and fifth globally, with OPPO achieving growth through affordable 5G models in Southeast Asia and MEA, while vivo maintained steady growth in India and Southeast Asia [4] Other Notable Brands - Google saw an 18% year-on-year increase in shipments, with its Pixel 9 series performing well, supported by the integration of AI features and regional expansion strategies [5]

Core Insights - Global smartphone shipments are projected to slightly decline to 288.9 million units in Q2 2025 due to moderate consumer demand, leading to suppressed market growth [1] - Samsung retains the top position in global shipments with 57.5 million units, a 7% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by the Galaxy A series targeting the mass market [1] - Apple ranks second with 44.8 million iPhone units shipped, experiencing a 2% decline, facing challenges from intense competition in China and inventory adjustments in the U.S. market [1] - Xiaomi holds the third position with 42.4 million units shipped, showing strong performance in Latin America and Africa [1] - Vivo ranks fourth with 26.4 million units, a 2% increase, particularly strong in the Indian market [1] - Transsion is fifth with 24.6 million units shipped, reflecting a 3% decline [1] Global Market Overview - In the worldwide smartphone vendor rankings for Q2 2025, Samsung leads with a 20% market share and a 7% annual growth, followed by Apple at 16% with a 2% decline, and Xiaomi at 15% with no growth [1] - Vivo and Transsion hold 9% market shares each, with Vivo growing by 2% and Transsion declining by 3% [1] Regional Insights Latin America - Samsung leads with a 32% market share and an 8% growth, followed by Xiaomi at 20% with an 8% growth [3] - Lenovo holds 15% with a 10% decline, while Honor shows significant growth at 8% with a 70% increase [3] Europe - Samsung has a 31% market share but a 10% decline, while Xiaomi grows by 11% to 23% [3] - Apple holds 21% with a 4% decline, and Lenovo and realme have 5% and 4% shares respectively [3] Mainland China - Huawei leads with an 18% market share and a 15% growth, followed closely by Vivo at 17% with a 10% decline [5] - OPPO and Xiaomi both have 16% and 15% shares respectively, with Xiaomi growing by 3% [5] India - Vivo dominates with a 21% market share and a 31% growth, followed by Samsung at 16% with a 2% growth [6] - OPPO and Xiaomi both hold 13% shares, with OPPO growing by 24% and Xiaomi declining by 25% [6] United States - Apple leads with a 49% market share but a 10% decline, while Samsung follows with 31% and a significant 38% growth [7] - Lenovo and Google hold 12% and 3% shares respectively, with Google growing by 11% [7] Brazil - Samsung leads with a 40% market share but a 3% decline, followed by Lenovo at 24% with an 8% decline [8] - Xiaomi holds 17% with no growth, while Apple has 5% with a 9% decline [8] Mexico - Samsung leads with a 23% market share but a 2% decline, followed by Xiaomi at 18% with a 13% decline [9] - Lenovo and OPPO have 12% and 10% shares respectively, with OPPO declining by 14% [9]