Core Insights - Despite ongoing tariff issues, U.S. smartphone shipments are expected to see a slight year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, driven by rising imports from Vietnam and India, even as imports from China decline [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - In Q2 2025, U.S. smartphone shipments grew by 2% year-on-year, attributed to increased imports from regions outside China [2] - Apple's market share has declined both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, although the iPhone 16e has shown strong performance, maintaining annual shipment growth [1][3] - Samsung experienced a slight year-on-year increase of 1 basis point, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3 basis points, primarily due to strong growth from Google [1][3] - Motorola's performance weakened in Q3, with declines in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter market share, attributed to soft prepaid demand influenced by macroeconomic and political factors [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Samsung achieved a double-digit year-on-year growth, benefiting from increased shipments of high-end models, raising its market share by 3 basis points to 27% [3] - Motorola has maintained a double-digit market share for five consecutive quarters, driven by competitive pressure in the prepaid market and an early launch of the RAZR 2025 series [3][4] - HMD's exit from the U.S. market creates new opportunities for other smartphone brands to capture market share [4] Group 3: Historical Trends - In Q1 2025, smartphone shipments increased by 9% year-on-year, largely due to preemptive stocking to avoid potential tariff impacts, especially in March [5] - Apple's market share reached a record high of 57% in Q1 2025, driven by the launch of the iPhone 16e and early shipments before April [5] - Samsung's market share fell from 31% in Q1 2024 to 25%, partly due to increased shipments from Apple and weaker performance of the S25 model [5]

智通财经APP获悉，市场研究机构Counterpoint Research周三表示，苹果(AAPL.US)预计将在2025年超越 三星，成为全球智能手机市场出货量第一的厂商，这将是苹果时隔14年再次站上全球榜首。 Counterpoint向媒体提供的数据显示，苹果今年预计出货约2.43亿部iPhone，而三星出货量预计为2.35亿 部。苹果在全球智能手机市场的占有率将达到19.4%，略高于三星的18.7%。 从更长周期来看，Counterpoint预测苹果将至少在2029年前保持全球智能手机市场的第一位置。研究机 构列出了多重支撑因素：其一，从2023年至2025年第二季度，全球共有3.58亿部二手iPhone售出，这些 用户未来很可能升级到新款iPhone，从而构成苹果稳定且庞大的需求基础。 研究报告指出，中美达成贸易协议，使苹果供应链遭受的关税冲击远低于预期；此外，美元走弱以及更 稳健的经济前景带动消费者信心，这些都为苹果带来顺风因素。Wang表示："在这些结构性利好下，苹 果极有可能在 2025 年首次在年度出货量上超过三星。" 展望未来，Counterpoint预计苹果明年将推出入门级的iPhone ...

Group 1 - The Southeast Asian smartphone market is projected to decline by 1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with shipments reaching 25.6 million units, marking the third consecutive quarter of decline [1][3] - Entry-level smartphone shipments are experiencing increased volatility, making management more challenging, yet they remain a key factor in market share rankings [3] - OPPO and vivo are focusing on value rather than volume, while Honor and Xiaomi are increasing shipments to enhance brand penetration, with Honor's Q3 shipments doubling compared to the same period in 2024 [3] Group 2 - After a sluggish first half of 2025, manufacturers are expected to adopt more aggressive strategies in the second half, including the early launch of new products, due to healthier inventory levels [3] - Rising material costs driven by increased memory and storage prices will significantly impact low-priced devices, especially in a price-sensitive market where over 60% of smartphones are priced below $200 [3] - Manufacturers will need to balance competitive pricing with adjustments in selling prices, reductions in hardware costs, or cuts in marketing expenditures to protect profit margins [3]

Core Insights - Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by strong performances in emerging markets like India, MEA, Japan, and parts of Asia-Pacific, despite declines in mature markets such as North America and Europe [1] Market Performance - Developed markets continue to show strong demand for high-end models, while emerging markets are increasingly favoring affordable 5G devices [1] - The Chinese market is experiencing a slowdown due to inventory reduction strategies, and consumer confidence in Latin America remains weak, leading to moderate overall growth [1] - Japan's smartphone market saw a 15% year-on-year growth, supported by the strong sales of iPhone 16 and iPhone 16e, as well as Samsung's Galaxy S25 series [1] Regional Highlights - The MEA region experienced a 14% year-on-year increase in shipments, primarily driven by strong performances from Samsung and Xiaomi, with Apple leading the high-end segment [1] - In India, smartphone shipments grew by 9% year-on-year, benefiting from early festive season demand, government relief measures improving consumer sentiment, and widespread adoption of high-end and mid-range models due to aggressive discounts and promotions [1] Brand Performance - Samsung led the global market in Q3 2025 with a 19% shipment share and a 6% year-on-year growth, driven by the strong performance of the Galaxy A series and the new Galaxy Z Fold7 [4] - Apple recorded a 9% year-on-year growth, making it the fastest-growing brand among the top five, with significant growth in Japan, China, Western Europe, and parts of Asia-Pacific [4] - Xiaomi maintained a 14% shipment share with a 2% year-on-year growth, particularly strong in Southeast Asia, MEA, and Latin America, benefiting from operator partnerships and promotional activities [4] - OPPO and vivo ranked fourth and fifth globally, with OPPO achieving growth through affordable 5G models in Southeast Asia and MEA, while vivo maintained steady growth in India and Southeast Asia [4] Other Notable Brands - Google saw an 18% year-on-year increase in shipments, with its Pixel 9 series performing well, supported by the integration of AI features and regional expansion strategies [5]

Core Insights - Global smartphone shipments are projected to slightly decline to 288.9 million units in Q2 2025 due to moderate consumer demand, leading to suppressed market growth [1] - Samsung retains the top position in global shipments with 57.5 million units, a 7% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by the Galaxy A series targeting the mass market [1] - Apple ranks second with 44.8 million iPhone units shipped, experiencing a 2% decline, facing challenges from intense competition in China and inventory adjustments in the U.S. market [1] - Xiaomi holds the third position with 42.4 million units shipped, showing strong performance in Latin America and Africa [1] - Vivo ranks fourth with 26.4 million units, a 2% increase, particularly strong in the Indian market [1] - Transsion is fifth with 24.6 million units shipped, reflecting a 3% decline [1] Global Market Overview - In the worldwide smartphone vendor rankings for Q2 2025, Samsung leads with a 20% market share and a 7% annual growth, followed by Apple at 16% with a 2% decline, and Xiaomi at 15% with no growth [1] - Vivo and Transsion hold 9% market shares each, with Vivo growing by 2% and Transsion declining by 3% [1] Regional Insights Latin America - Samsung leads with a 32% market share and an 8% growth, followed by Xiaomi at 20% with an 8% growth [3] - Lenovo holds 15% with a 10% decline, while Honor shows significant growth at 8% with a 70% increase [3] Europe - Samsung has a 31% market share but a 10% decline, while Xiaomi grows by 11% to 23% [3] - Apple holds 21% with a 4% decline, and Lenovo and realme have 5% and 4% shares respectively [3] Mainland China - Huawei leads with an 18% market share and a 15% growth, followed closely by Vivo at 17% with a 10% decline [5] - OPPO and Xiaomi both have 16% and 15% shares respectively, with Xiaomi growing by 3% [5] India - Vivo dominates with a 21% market share and a 31% growth, followed by Samsung at 16% with a 2% growth [6] - OPPO and Xiaomi both hold 13% shares, with OPPO growing by 24% and Xiaomi declining by 25% [6] United States - Apple leads with a 49% market share but a 10% decline, while Samsung follows with 31% and a significant 38% growth [7] - Lenovo and Google hold 12% and 3% shares respectively, with Google growing by 11% [7] Brazil - Samsung leads with a 40% market share but a 3% decline, followed by Lenovo at 24% with an 8% decline [8] - Xiaomi holds 17% with no growth, while Apple has 5% with a 9% decline [8] Mexico - Samsung leads with a 23% market share but a 2% decline, followed by Xiaomi at 18% with a 13% decline [9] - Lenovo and OPPO have 12% and 10% shares respectively, with OPPO declining by 14% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price has recently declined, reaching a two-month low, primarily due to downward revisions in smartphone shipment forecasts, particularly in the Indian market [1][2] Group 1: Smartphone Market Performance - Xiaomi's smartphone shipment volume for Q2 2025 is expected to be slightly lower than previous forecasts, with a 25% year-on-year decline in the Indian market impacting overall performance [1] - The global smartphone market experienced a 1% decline in shipments compared to the same period last year, marking the first drop in six consecutive quarters [1] - Despite a stable performance, Xiaomi achieved a historical high of 15% market share globally in Q2 2025, although this was accompanied by a decrease in gross margin [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Total revenue for Xiaomi in Q2 2025 is projected to be 112.6 billion RMB, slightly below market expectations, while adjusted net profit is forecasted at 10.2 billion RMB, aligning with market expectations [1] - Forecasts for IoT revenue in the second half of 2025 have been revised downward due to changes in national subsidy policies [1] Group 3: Electric Vehicle Business - Xiaomi's electric vehicle deliveries are expected to reach 82,000 units in Q2 2025, benefiting from the delivery of the SU7 Ultra, with an average selling price of 242,000 RMB and an improved gross margin of 25% [1] - The company has initiated deliveries of the YU7 in July, with the second-phase factory expected to commence production by the end of September [1] Group 4: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Due to downward revisions in smartphone gross margin forecasts, analysts have lowered Xiaomi's earnings per share estimates for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 7%, and reduced the target price from 78 HKD to 72 HKD [2] - Nomura has raised Xiaomi's target price by 79% to 61 HKD based on SOTP valuation but downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to limited upside potential [2] - Analysts expect Xiaomi to face challenges in the coming quarters, including lower-than-expected smartphone shipments and high market expectations for its electric vehicle business [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price fell over 5% to HKD 51.2, marking a new low since June 13, 2023, ahead of its Q2 2025 earnings announcement on August 19, 2023 [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Daiwa forecasts Xiaomi's Q2 2025 smartphone shipments to be slightly below previous estimates, primarily due to a 25% year-on-year decline in the Indian market [1] - Despite achieving a historical high global market share of 15% in Q2 2025, this was at the cost of declining gross margins [1] - Total revenue for Q2 2025 is projected at RMB 112.6 billion, slightly below market expectations, while adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 10.2 billion, in line with market expectations [1] Group 2: Adjustments and Ratings - Daiwa has revised down its IoT revenue forecast for the second half of 2025, reflecting changes in national subsidy policies [1] - Due to the downward revision of smartphone gross margin forecasts, Daiwa has lowered Xiaomi's earnings per share estimates for 2025-2027 by 2%-7% [1] - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 78 to HKD 72, based on an average P/E ratio of 36 times for 2025-2026, down from 38 times, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 3: Risks - Key risks include macroeconomic headwinds and slower-than-expected ramp-up in electric vehicle production capacity [1]

Core Insights - The research by Canalys indicates a 1% year-on-year growth in smartphone shipments in the U.S. for Q2 2025, driven by manufacturers preemptively stocking up due to tariff concerns [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The share of smartphones assembled in China for the U.S. market has significantly decreased from 61% in Q2 2024 to 25% in Q2 2025 [1] - The majority of the lost market share has been taken over by India, with "Made in India" smartphones experiencing a remarkable year-on-year shipment increase of 240%, now accounting for 44% of total U.S. smartphone imports, up from just 13% in Q2 2024 [1]

Core Insights - Canalys' latest research indicates that U.S. smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, as manufacturers continue to stock up amid tariff concerns [1] Company Performance - iPhone shipments declined by 11% year-on-year, falling to 13.3 million units, showing a significant pullback [1] - Samsung experienced a substantial year-on-year increase of 38%, with shipments reaching 8.3 million units [1] - Motorola continued its steady expansion in the U.S. market, achieving a 2% year-on-year growth, with shipments totaling 3.2 million units [1]

Core Insights - In Q2 2025, China's smartphone shipments declined by 2.4% year-on-year, attributed to seasonal factors and demand front-loading due to subsidies [1] - Huawei maintained its leading position for the second consecutive quarter, increasing its market share from 15% to 18.1% year-on-year, driven by strong sales of the mid-range nova 14 series and significant price reductions on high-end models [1] - Vivo ranked second in shipments, supported by its strong offline channel network and the successful performance of its Y series in lower-tier cities, along with a surge in demand for the newly launched S30 series during back-to-school promotions [4] - OPPO successfully launched the Reno 14 series before the 618 shopping festival, continuing the strong sales momentum of the Reno 13 series, while its sub-brand OnePlus achieved notable growth by focusing on the gaming experience [4] - Xiaomi recorded the second-fastest growth rate in Q2 2025 with a market share of 15.7%, maintaining growth through price reductions on popular models like Redmi K80 and Xiaomi 15, despite not launching new mid-range products during promotions [5] - Apple performed strongly during the 618 shopping festival due to unprecedented price cuts on the iPhone 16 series, particularly the Pro models, although this may pressure sales of the iPhone 17 base model in the second half of the year [5] - Honor is responding to intense market competition by expanding its product lineup, with the mid-range HONOR 400 series launched at the end of May showing promising initial results [5] Industry Outlook - The demand for smartphones in China remains weak, aligning with previous expectations from Counterpoint, although promotions and subsidies have provided some support for stable sales [6] - Counterpoint anticipates a year-on-year growth in the Chinese market for 2025, albeit at a slower pace, with summer promotions and the early release of flagship products in Q3 expected to boost sales and lay a solid foundation for Q4 performance [6] - The industry will continue to monitor the evolving global market landscape, particularly regarding tariff policies, rising component costs, and changes in consumer demand [6]