Canalys的最新研究显示，2025年第二季度全球智能手机出货量小幅下降至2.889亿部，受限于相对温和的消费者需求，市场增长受抑。三 星在本季度保持最大出货量厂商地位，出货5750万部，同比增长7%。其表现主要得益于面向大众市场的Galaxy A系列。苹果(AAPL.US) 排名第二，iPhone出货量为4480万部，同比下降2%。尽管面临中国市场激烈竞争以及美国市场库存调整带来的挑战(主要由于快速变化的 关税政策)，苹果依然展现出强劲的韧性。小米(01810)守住第三名，出货4240万部，在拉丁美洲和非洲市场表现尤为强劲。vivo位列第 四，同比增长2%，出货2640万部，印度市场增长尤为明显。传音排名第五，出货2460万部，同比下降3%。 | Europe: top smartphone vendors, Q2 2025 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Vendor | | Unit share | Annual growth | | Samsung | | 31% | -10% | | #2 1 | Xiaomi | 23% | +11% | | #3 | A ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price has recently declined, reaching a two-month low, primarily due to downward revisions in smartphone shipment forecasts, particularly in the Indian market [1][2] Group 1: Smartphone Market Performance - Xiaomi's smartphone shipment volume for Q2 2025 is expected to be slightly lower than previous forecasts, with a 25% year-on-year decline in the Indian market impacting overall performance [1] - The global smartphone market experienced a 1% decline in shipments compared to the same period last year, marking the first drop in six consecutive quarters [1] - Despite a stable performance, Xiaomi achieved a historical high of 15% market share globally in Q2 2025, although this was accompanied by a decrease in gross margin [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Total revenue for Xiaomi in Q2 2025 is projected to be 112.6 billion RMB, slightly below market expectations, while adjusted net profit is forecasted at 10.2 billion RMB, aligning with market expectations [1] - Forecasts for IoT revenue in the second half of 2025 have been revised downward due to changes in national subsidy policies [1] Group 3: Electric Vehicle Business - Xiaomi's electric vehicle deliveries are expected to reach 82,000 units in Q2 2025, benefiting from the delivery of the SU7 Ultra, with an average selling price of 242,000 RMB and an improved gross margin of 25% [1] - The company has initiated deliveries of the YU7 in July, with the second-phase factory expected to commence production by the end of September [1] Group 4: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Due to downward revisions in smartphone gross margin forecasts, analysts have lowered Xiaomi's earnings per share estimates for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 7%, and reduced the target price from 78 HKD to 72 HKD [2] - Nomura has raised Xiaomi's target price by 79% to 61 HKD based on SOTP valuation but downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to limited upside potential [2] - Analysts expect Xiaomi to face challenges in the coming quarters, including lower-than-expected smartphone shipments and high market expectations for its electric vehicle business [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price fell over 5% to HKD 51.2, marking a new low since June 13, 2023, ahead of its Q2 2025 earnings announcement on August 19, 2023 [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Daiwa forecasts Xiaomi's Q2 2025 smartphone shipments to be slightly below previous estimates, primarily due to a 25% year-on-year decline in the Indian market [1] - Despite achieving a historical high global market share of 15% in Q2 2025, this was at the cost of declining gross margins [1] - Total revenue for Q2 2025 is projected at RMB 112.6 billion, slightly below market expectations, while adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 10.2 billion, in line with market expectations [1] Group 2: Adjustments and Ratings - Daiwa has revised down its IoT revenue forecast for the second half of 2025, reflecting changes in national subsidy policies [1] - Due to the downward revision of smartphone gross margin forecasts, Daiwa has lowered Xiaomi's earnings per share estimates for 2025-2027 by 2%-7% [1] - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 78 to HKD 72, based on an average P/E ratio of 36 times for 2025-2026, down from 38 times, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 3: Risks - Key risks include macroeconomic headwinds and slower-than-expected ramp-up in electric vehicle production capacity [1]

Core Insights - In Q2 2025, China's smartphone shipments declined by 2.4% year-on-year, attributed to seasonal factors and demand front-loading due to subsidies [1] - Huawei maintained its leading position for the second consecutive quarter, increasing its market share from 15% to 18.1% year-on-year, driven by strong sales of the mid-range nova 14 series and significant price reductions on high-end models [1] - Vivo ranked second in shipments, supported by its strong offline channel network and the successful performance of its Y series in lower-tier cities, along with a surge in demand for the newly launched S30 series during back-to-school promotions [4] - OPPO successfully launched the Reno 14 series before the 618 shopping festival, continuing the strong sales momentum of the Reno 13 series, while its sub-brand OnePlus achieved notable growth by focusing on the gaming experience [4] - Xiaomi recorded the second-fastest growth rate in Q2 2025 with a market share of 15.7%, maintaining growth through price reductions on popular models like Redmi K80 and Xiaomi 15, despite not launching new mid-range products during promotions [5] - Apple performed strongly during the 618 shopping festival due to unprecedented price cuts on the iPhone 16 series, particularly the Pro models, although this may pressure sales of the iPhone 17 base model in the second half of the year [5] - Honor is responding to intense market competition by expanding its product lineup, with the mid-range HONOR 400 series launched at the end of May showing promising initial results [5] Industry Outlook - The demand for smartphones in China remains weak, aligning with previous expectations from Counterpoint, although promotions and subsidies have provided some support for stable sales [6] - Counterpoint anticipates a year-on-year growth in the Chinese market for 2025, albeit at a slower pace, with summer promotions and the early release of flagship products in Q3 expected to boost sales and lay a solid foundation for Q4 performance [6] - The industry will continue to monitor the evolving global market landscape, particularly regarding tariff policies, rising component costs, and changes in consumer demand [6]

7月15日，IDC发布初步数据显示，2025年第二季度中国智能手机市场出货量为6900万部，同比下降 4.0%。华为出货量1250万部，以18.1%的市场份额重回首位；vivo（1190万部）、OPPO（1070万部）、 小米（1040万部） 、苹果（960万部）分列二至五位。此前，中国信通院在月初发布的数据显示，5月 份国内市场智能手机出货量为2252.6万部，同比下降21.2%，占同期手机出货量的95%；1-5月，智能手 机出货量为1.09亿部，同比下降4.9%，占同期手机出货量的92.3%。 | Company | 2025Q2 Shipments | 2025Q2 Market Share | 2024Q2 Shipments | 2024Q2 Market Share | YOY Growth | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. Huawei | 12.5 | 18.1% | 12.9 | 18.0% | -3.4% | | 2. vivo | 11.9 | 17.3% | 13.3 | 18.5% | -10.1% | | 3. OPPO | ...

Core Insights - The global smartphone market is projected to decline by 1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking the first drop in six consecutive quarters, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2][4] - Samsung maintained its market leadership with a 19% share, followed by Apple at 16% and Xiaomi at 15%, while Transsion and OPPO each held 9% [1][5] Market Performance - Despite a slight decrease in shipments, major manufacturers demonstrated stability and resilience amid a slowing market due to the waning replacement demand from the pandemic and ongoing weak consumer demand [2][4] - The U.S. market is an exception, where manufacturers like Apple, Samsung, and Motorola maintained high inventory levels in response to geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties [2] Consumer Behavior - Many consumers who delayed upgrades in early 2025 are expected to make purchases during year-end shopping festivals and promotional events, with effective pricing strategies and promotions being crucial for success [4] - Price-sensitive consumers remain the primary drivers of upgrade demand, preferring to replace old devices at reasonable prices [4] Market Share Data - The preliminary market share data for Q2 2025 shows: - Samsung: 19% - Apple: 16% - Xiaomi: 15% - Transsion: 9% - OPPO: 9% - Others: 33% [5] Industry Outlook - The smartphone industry is anticipated to stabilize in 2025, with manufacturers prepared to address the expected flat market, leveraging new product launches that emphasize design, ecosystem innovation, and privacy features [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - Apple plans to release the iPhone 17e in spring next year, aiming to maintain annual iPhone shipments between 220 million and 230 million units [1][3]. Group 1: iPhone 17e and OLED Display - The iPhone 17e will continue to use the 6.1-inch OLED display from the iPhone 16e, which itself reused the display from the iPhone 14 [3]. - BOE, Samsung Display, and LG Display are involved in the OLED screen development for the iPhone 17e, with BOE having the highest shipment share for the iPhone 16e's OLED screen [1][3]. Group 2: iPhone SE Series and Market Strategy - The iPhone SE series has historically reused components from previous models while incorporating the latest application processors to compete in the market [3]. - The first-year shipment of the iPhone SE series was approximately 20 million units, and the iPhone 16e series is expected to have similar shipment figures this year [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Releases - Apple increased its annual iPhone shipments to 230 million units during the home office period in 2020, while Samsung's Galaxy smartphone shipments fell to the same level [3]. - Analysts predict that Apple will continue to release iPhone E series models annually after the iPhone 17e, reflecting a consistent market strategy [4].

Core Insights - In Q1 2025, smartphone shipments in Europe decreased by 2% year-on-year, totaling 32.4 million units, primarily due to weak demand for entry-level devices [1] - Demand for high-end models remains strong, driven by Apple and Samsung, with devices priced above €800 accounting for a record 32% of shipments in the first quarter [1]

Core Insights - In Q1 2025, smartphone shipments in Europe (excluding Russia) declined by 2% year-on-year, totaling 32.4 million units, primarily due to weak demand for entry-level devices [1] Group 1 - The decline in smartphone shipments is attributed to a lack of demand for entry-level devices [1] - Google entered the top five rankings in the European smartphone market for the first time, with shipments of 900,000 units [1]