Investment Rating - The report suggests that the domestic HNB (Heated Not Burned) industry is on the verge of significant growth, driven by international tobacco giants shifting towards new tobacco products [5]. Core Insights - The global cigarette market is experiencing an irreversible decline, with smoking rates dropping from 30.75% in 2005 to 21.74% in 2022, and cigarette market size decreasing from 53,908 billion sticks in 2018 to an estimated 51,561 billion sticks in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -0.74% [1][13]. - Major tobacco companies, including Philip Morris International (PMI), are focusing on new tobacco products as a core growth driver, with PMI planning for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030 [1][20]. - The Japanese market serves as a reference point, showing that the rapid penetration of heated tobacco products has not negatively impacted tax revenues, with the market size growing from 37.28 billion sticks in 2019 to 64.50 billion sticks in 2024, a CAGR of 11.59% [2][51]. Summary by Sections Section 1: HNB as a Core Development Category - International tobacco giants are increasingly focusing on new tobacco products as a long-term performance core, with significant contributions to profitability [1.1]. - The global market for heated tobacco and electronic cigarettes is projected to grow, with sales expected to reach $38.85 billion and $23.04 billion respectively by 2024, reflecting growth rates of 12.7% and 9.5% [1.1][13]. Section 2: Domestic Tobacco Industry Challenges - The traditional cigarette market in China is under pressure, with production increasing from 23,642 billion sticks in 2019 to 24,655 billion sticks in 2024, but at a slowing growth rate [3][55]. - The inventory levels in the tobacco industry have risen significantly, from 150 billion yuan in 2010 to approximately 4,394 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a high stock level [3][56]. Section 3: Regulatory Framework for HNB - The regulatory landscape for heated tobacco products is becoming clearer globally, with established frameworks in the US, Japan, and Europe, providing a roadmap for compliance [4][62]. - The US has implemented a structured regulatory process for HNB products, which includes pre-market tobacco application (PMTA) requirements, ensuring a predictable compliance environment [4][66]. Section 4: Domestic Product Development and Market Readiness - Chinese tobacco companies have made significant strides in developing HNB products, with several companies launching domestic HNB devices and achieving a substantial number of patents in the field [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and international expansion for the high-quality development of the domestic tobacco industry [3][5]. Section 5: Company Analysis - Companies like Huabao International and Smoore International are highlighted for their strong technical reserves and potential for growth in the HNB sector, with Huabao expected to benefit from its leading position in the flavoring segment [5][5.1][5.2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that the decline in traditional cigarette sales is an irreversible trend, with tobacco giants focusing on new tobacco products as a core driver for long-term development. The European market is transitioning from disposable to refillable and open products, creating new opportunities for compliant companies [1]. Group 1: Philip Morris International - In Q1-Q3 2025, Philip Morris International's new tobacco business generated revenue of 12.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, with revenue contribution rising by 3.0 percentage points to 41.3% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue from new tobacco products increased by 18.9% to 4.4 billion USD, continuing a favorable growth trend [1]. - The HNB shipment volume reached 116.7 billion sticks in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, with Q3 shipments up by 15.5% to 40.836 billion sticks [2]. Group 2: British American Tobacco - In H1 2025, British American Tobacco's new tobacco business revenue was 1.689 billion GBP, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, with vapor products down 15.0% and HNB products down 3.2% [3]. - The Glo market share increased by 0.4 percentage points to 16.8% by H1 2025, with Glo Hilo launched in Japan, Poland, and Italy since September 2025 [3]. Group 3: Altria - In Q1-Q3 2025, Altria's oral tobacco business revenue was 2.096 billion USD, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6%, while Q3 revenue decreased by 4.6% [4]. - The On! brand achieved sales of 134 million cans in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [4]. - Altria has completed the redesign of NJOY ACE and is assessing the possibility of re-entering the U.S. market after resolving patent disputes [4]. Group 4: Imperial Brands - In FY2025, Imperial Brands' new tobacco business revenue was 368 million GBP, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, with European new tobacco revenue growing by 7.7% [5]. - The company launched new products in the UK, France, Italy, and Greece, contributing to stable revenue growth in the European market [5]. Group 5: Japan Tobacco - In Q1-Q3 2025, Japan Tobacco's new tobacco business generated revenue of 91.3 billion JPY, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, with sales volume up by 27.0% [7]. - The Ploom Aura product has achieved cumulative sales of over 2 million units, marking the fastest record in Japanese tobacco history [7]. - Japan Tobacco plans to invest 650 billion JPY in Ploom Aura's development and marketing from 2025 to 2027, indicating a focus on the competitive HNB market [7]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Smoore International (06969) due to the significant expansion of the compliant vapor market in Europe and the ongoing global promotion of Hilo [8]. - It also suggests paying attention to the new tobacco industry chain, including vapor, HNB, and oral tobacco products [8].

Group 1: PMI and HNB Market Insights - PMI's investor event highlighted that the share of vaporized e-cigarettes in IQOS's customer acquisition channels in Europe has increased to 20%, indicating a growing appeal of HNB products among vaporized cigarette consumers [1] - The proportion of IQOS users who also use Philip Morris's ZYN or VEEV products has doubled from 16% in Q1 2024 to 32% in Q1 2025, showcasing the increasing cross-utilization effect among different tobacco product categories [1] - HNB product penetration is expected to accelerate due to new product launches and improved user experiences, with current global penetration below 6% [2] Group 2: Product Development and Market Trends - The latest IQOS product iteration, Iluma i series, was released in March 2024, and significant technological advancements are anticipated in the next iteration expected in 2026 [2] - The company has upgraded its status from a secondary plastic component supplier to a primary supplier for complete devices and key heating components, which is expected to enhance revenue contributions [2] - The air purification and water purification markets are projected to grow significantly, with the U.S. air purifier market expected to rise from approximately $4.546 billion in 2024 to $6.82 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of about 7.2% [3] Group 3: Diversification and Growth Opportunities - The automotive electronics sector is anticipated to maintain rapid growth, with a projected market size increase from CNY 614 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19% [4] - The collaboration with Logitech has deepened, leading to increased revenue from gaming and video collaboration products, with gaming product revenue growing from $245 million in 2016 to $1.338 billion in 2024 [4] - The brain-computer interface sector is gaining traction, with successful collaborations and product sales to numerous educational and research institutions, which may contribute positively to future performance [6] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 46.09 billion, CNY 57.51 billion, and CNY 67.59 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 29.01%, 24.77%, and 17.52% respectively [7] - Net profits are projected to reach CNY 4.60 billion, CNY 6.41 billion, and CNY 8.34 billion for the same period, with significant growth rates of 82.86%, 39.41%, and 30.05% respectively [7]