从去年到今年，促消费、促内需，一直是社会的重要议题。 此前，重要工作会议更是将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"定位明年八大重点任务之首。 但回望过去一年，在大盘整体上涨的趋势之中，跌幅居前的，仍大多是消费板块。 但，转机往往在危机之中酝酿，在今年最惨的板块之中，又到底能否酝酿出新的机遇呢？ 01 白酒板块 年内跌幅12.44% "买你的白酒去吧，老登。" 这句以一己之力打造出老登股和小登股概念的话，足以表现出如今白酒板块的尴尬处境。 同花顺数据显示，在申万二级行业指数之中，今年年内下跌的16个行业中，有十个均为消费板块。 | 申万二级行业指数排名 | | --- | | | 简称 | 年涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | T | 专业连锁II | -14.72 | | 2 | 铁路公路 | -12.86 | | 3 | 三恩山 | -12.44 | | 4 | 房屋建设 II | -11.80 | | 5 | 非白酒 | -11.61 | | 6 | 出版 | -7.22 | | 7 | 调味发酵品 II | -6.04 | | 8 | 煤炭开采 | -5.55 | | g | 中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant downturn in various consumer sectors, particularly the liquor and retail industries, highlighting the challenges and potential opportunities for recovery amidst changing consumer behaviors and market dynamics [2][4][43]. Group 1: Liquor Industry - The liquor sector, especially the white liquor segment, has faced substantial declines, with the overall white liquor market down by 12.44% this year [9][15]. - Major brands like Wuliangye have reported significant drops in revenue and profit, with a 10.26% decline in revenue and a 13.72% drop in net profit for the first three quarters [17]. - The white liquor industry is experiencing a shift from a growth-driven model to one focused on consumer preferences, with a need for companies to adapt to changing consumption patterns [26][27]. Group 2: Retail Industry - The professional chain sector has seen a dramatic decline of 14.72%, with many traditional retail models struggling to survive [28][30]. - Companies like Renrenle have faced severe financial difficulties, leading to a significant reduction in store numbers and ultimately triggering delisting procedures [34][35]. - The shift towards online shopping and changing consumer preferences have forced traditional retailers to innovate or face extinction [36][39]. Group 3: Non-White Liquor Sector - The non-white liquor sector, including beer and wine, has also suffered, with a reported decline of 11.61% this year [40]. - Major players like Budweiser APAC have experienced significant sales drops, with a 9.5% revenue decrease and a 24.4% decline in net profit [46]. - The industry is witnessing a trend of cross-industry competition, with liquor companies diversifying into other beverage categories to adapt to market changes [51][56]. Group 4: Publishing Industry - The publishing sector has faced a 7.22% decline, with the overall market for printed books down by 10.40% [60]. - Despite the downturn, some publishing companies have managed to increase profits through cost control and operational efficiency, with a 14.65% rise in net profit for listed companies [61][62]. - The industry is undergoing significant transformation, moving from traditional sales models to more dynamic content management and IP development strategies [70][71]. Group 5: Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector has seen a 6.04% decline, with companies like Qianhe Flavor struggling due to a drop in revenue and profit [74]. - The industry is facing challenges from both market saturation and changing consumer preferences, necessitating a shift in strategy for many companies [81]. Group 6: Traditional Chinese Medicine - The traditional Chinese medicine sector has experienced a 5.02% decline, with companies like Pian Zai Huang facing significant revenue and profit drops [86]. - The industry is under pressure from regulatory changes and increased competition, pushing companies to innovate and diversify their product offerings [91][92]. Group 7: Digital Media - The digital media sector has reported a 4.95% decline, with traditional advertising models struggling to adapt to new market realities [97][100]. - Companies like Mango TV have seen significant revenue drops, highlighting the challenges of maintaining profitability in a rapidly changing landscape [101][104]. Group 8: Kitchen and Bathroom Appliances - The kitchen and bathroom appliance sector has faced a 4.11% decline, with major players like Boss Electric experiencing revenue drops for the first time in years [112]. - The industry is grappling with reduced demand due to a slowdown in the real estate market, necessitating a shift towards innovation and international expansion [117][118]. Group 9: White Goods - The white goods sector has seen a 2.02% decline, with companies like Gree Electric facing significant challenges due to market saturation and increased competition [126][129]. - The industry is shifting towards a more rational consumer base that prioritizes product quality and brand reputation over traditional growth drivers [133]. Group 10: Hotel and Restaurant Industry - The hotel and restaurant sector has experienced a 1.37% decline, with many businesses struggling to convert increased tourism into profits [140][141]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more refined operational models, with companies focusing on member engagement and digital transformation to enhance profitability [142][143].

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the historical Prohibition era in the United States and current economic challenges, suggesting that extreme policies may exacerbate societal issues rather than resolve them [3][30]. Historical Context of Prohibition - The Prohibition era began in 1920 with the 18th Amendment, aiming to reduce alcohol consumption and improve societal morals, but it led to increased crime and a thriving black market [5][11]. - The initial goals of Prohibition, such as reducing crime and improving public health, were not achieved; instead, it resulted in a significant loss of tax revenue and increased illegal activities [6][8][26]. Economic Impact - During Prohibition, the price of alcoholic beverages surged, with beer prices increasing by 700% and overall alcohol consumption rising by 50% [7][27]. - The government faced escalating costs to enforce Prohibition, with expenditures on enforcement rising from $440,000 to $1.34 million over the years [26]. Rise of Organized Crime - Prohibition created lucrative opportunities for organized crime, exemplified by figures like Al Capone, who capitalized on the illegal alcohol trade, generating estimated annual revenues of $100 million by 1927 [19][25]. - The black market for alcohol thrived, with organized crime syndicates establishing extensive distribution networks and engaging in violent turf wars [16][24]. Social Consequences - The societal issues intended to be addressed by Prohibition, such as alcohol-related health problems, worsened, with alcohol consumption increasing and incidents of alcohol poisoning rising dramatically [27]. - The failure of Prohibition highlighted the disconnect between government policies and public behavior, leading to a growing movement to repeal the law [29][30]. Conclusion and Modern Parallels - The article concludes that current economic policies in the U.S., such as tariffs and trade restrictions, may similarly burden the public and lead to unintended consequences, echoing the lessons learned from the Prohibition era [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the historical Prohibition era in the United States and current economic challenges, highlighting how extreme policies can lead to unintended consequences and societal issues. Group 1: Historical Context of Prohibition - The Prohibition era began in 1920 with the aim of reducing alcohol consumption and improving societal morals, but it resulted in increased crime and a thriving black market for alcohol [2][4][6]. - The initial goals of Prohibition, such as reducing crime rates and improving public health, were not achieved; instead, the government lost tax revenue and incurred high enforcement costs [3][20]. - The rise of organized crime, particularly figures like Al Capone, was fueled by the lucrative illegal alcohol trade, leading to significant societal and economic impacts [12][16][17]. Group 2: Economic Implications - During Prohibition, the average annual alcohol consumption in the U.S. increased by 50%, and prices for alcoholic beverages skyrocketed, with beer prices rising by 700% [21][22]. - The government spent millions on enforcement, yet the lack of regulation led to dangerous practices in alcohol production, resulting in increased health risks for the public [21][22]. - The economic downturn during the Great Depression contributed to calls for the repeal of Prohibition, as restoring the alcohol industry was seen as a way to stimulate the economy and create jobs [22][23]. Group 3: Modern Parallels - The article suggests that current U.S. policies, such as tariffs and trade restrictions, are reminiscent of Prohibition, as they may lead to increased burdens on ordinary citizens and encourage alternative methods to circumvent regulations [24][25]. - The historical lesson indicates that extreme policies can exacerbate existing problems rather than resolve them, highlighting the need for more balanced approaches to economic challenges [24][25].