Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices continued to decline due to Iran's missile attack on US bases in Qatar and Iraq and the expected cease - fire. In the short - term, geopolitical situations may change, and oil prices will remain highly volatile. The market will be in a state of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads in the 3rd quarter, and oil prices may test the shale oil cost line in the 4th quarter [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $78/barrel, closing at $67.23/barrel, with a high of $78.4/barrel, a low of $66.6/barrel, a decline of 8.95%, and a trading volume of 70.42 million lots. Brent's opening price was $78.9/barrel, closing at $69.73/barrel, with a high of $79.4/barrel, a low of $98.64/barrel, a decline of 7.62%, and a trading volume of 78.92 million lots. SC's opening price was 566.9 yuan/barrel, closing at 518.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 572.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 518.6 yuan/barrel, a decline of 9%, and a trading volume of 52.65 million lots [6] - **Supply - side**: In the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically completed the planned production increase. Considering Trump's concerns about high oil prices, OPEC+ may further increase production [7] - **Demand - side**: In the June report, due to the suspension of the Sino - US tariff conflict, the crude oil demand outlook improved. However, due to the expected supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment of the balance sheet was limited, and the market will accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short - term, oil prices will be highly volatile. Consider reverse spreads in the 3rd quarter, and oil prices may test the shale oil cost line in the 4th quarter [7] 2. Industry News - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to Trump's cease - fire plan with Iran. The Israeli Defense Forces detected missiles launched from Iran, and the defense system was activated. The Israeli Defense Minister instructed the military to strongly respond to Iran's cease - fire violations and conduct high - intensity strikes on targets in Tehran's core areas [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, various spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][12][18]

请阅读正文后的声明 行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 17 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: May 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - Short - term: With the progress of China - US negotiations, market risk appetite has increased, and oil prices may rebound in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure at previous highs [7] - Medium - term: There is a clear expectation of inventory accumulation in the second quarter, and the accumulation amplitude is significantly larger than that in the same period of 2024. Without a reversal of OPEC+'s production - increasing intention or a definite alleviation of tariff concerns, oil prices still face downward risks. It is advisable to consider buying put options [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Variety | Opening Price ($/barrel) | Closing Price ($/barrel) | Highest Price ($/barrel) | Lowest Price ($/barrel) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | WTI (Main Contract) | 59.84 | 60.58 | 60.98 | 59.49 | 1.78 | 16.37 | | Brent (Main Contract) | 63.07 | 63.88 | 64.27 | 62.84 | 1.65 | 32.62 | | SC (Main Contract, Yuan/barrel) | 475 | 482.3 | 482.3 | 469.9 | 2.95 | 9.58 | - News: China - US negotiations achieved substantial progress, with both sides set to significantly cut tariffs in the next 90 days. Oil prices once soared nearly 4%, but the gains later narrowed [6] Operation Suggestions - Short - term: Expect an oil price rebound and pay attention to the pressure at previous highs - Medium - term: Consider buying put options due to inventory accumulation expectations and other factors [7] Group 5: Industry News - US - Iran Talks: On May 11, a US senior government official said that the US Middle East envoy Witkoff held the fourth round of direct and indirect talks with Iran in Muscat, Oman. Both sides discussed the "technical elements" of the nuclear agreement and agreed to hold another meeting in the near future [8] - Russia - Ukraine Negotiations: On May 11, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Russia's proposal to resume direct negotiations was a good sign. Ukraine hopes for a full, long - lasting and reliable cease - fire starting from May 12 and is willing to negotiate [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), WTI fund positions (lots), Brent fund net positions (lots), Dtd Brent price ($/barrel), WTI spot price ($/barrel), Oman spot price ($/barrel), US crude oil production growth rate (thousand barrels per day), and EIA crude oil inventory (thousand barrels) [10][11][18]