智通财经APP获悉，当地时间10月5日，OPEC+同意11月小幅增加原油产量，增产幅度为13.7万桶/日。此举缓解了交易员对超大规模增产的担忧，油价周一 开盘走高。截止发稿，布伦特原油涨0.93%，报65.13美元/桶;WTI原油涨0.94%，报61.45美元/桶。 然而，随着部分消费需求开始放缓，未来数月市场格局可能出现变化。国际能源署(IEA)就预测，随着OPEC+持续增产及其竞争对手供应攀升，2026年全球 石油供应将出现创纪录过剩。 消息人士透露，在此次会议召开前，OPEC+内部两大核心产油国——俄罗斯与沙特阿拉伯的立场存在分歧。两名消息人士表示，俄罗斯主张维持与10月持 平的小幅增产幅度，一来可避免对油价造成下行压力，二来受乌克兰冲突相关制裁影响，俄罗斯自身也难以大幅提高产量。而会议前另有消息人士指出，沙 特阿拉伯原本希望将增产量提升至这一数字的2倍、3倍甚至4倍，即分别为27.4万桶/日、41.1万桶/日或 54.8 万桶/日。沙特提出这一诉求的原因在于其拥有 闲置产能，且希望更快夺回市场份额。 今年以来，在经历多年产量限制后，OPEC+正通过逐步恢复闲置产能的策略重新争夺市场份额。尽管供应增加， ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货原油季报 基本面支撑，油价有望反弹 20250928 黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 审核：孙伟涛，从业资格号：F0276620，交易咨询号：Z0014688 季度观点及策略 季度观点 库存：由于需求上升，美国原油和成品油库存下降。原油库存减少60.7万桶，至4.148亿桶，而市场预期为增加23.5万桶。俄克拉荷马州库欣交付中心的原油库存增 加17.7万桶。美国原油净进口量增加160万桶/日，而原油出口量下降79.3万桶1日，至448万桶/日。汽油库存减少110万桶，至2.166亿桶，而预期为增加15万桶。包 括柴油和取暖油在内的馏分油库存减少170万桶，至1.23亿桶，预期为减少49.4万桶。市场正密切关注馏分油需求，因为它是工业需求、商业运输和取暖需求的晴雨 表。 供应：上周美国原油产量维持在1340万桶/日水平。OPEC+产油国联盟决定10月再次提高石油产量目标，再次增产将意味着OPEC+开始解除第二层减产计划，该计划的 减产幅度约为165万桶/日，占全球需求量的1.6%，解除 ...

2025-09-26原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 1.基本面：国际文传电讯社援引俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克报道，俄罗斯政府计划禁止不生产柴油的供应商 出口柴油，禁令将持续到今年年底，诺瓦克表示政府还考虑将目前的汽油出口禁令延长至今年年底； 乌方消息人士称，袭击行动导致位于俄罗斯新罗西斯克港口附近的石油装运设施以及终端设备瘫痪， 相关设施每日出口原油约200万桶；印度官员再次向特朗普政府表明，若要该国炼油商大幅削减俄罗斯 石油进口，美方需允许其从受制裁的伊朗和委内瑞拉购买原油；中性 2.基差：9月25日，阿曼原油现货价为70.83元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69 ...

原油周报：风险偏好回落，供需压力逐渐兑现 研究员：童川 期货从业证号：F3071222 投资咨询证号：Z0017010 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 11 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 上周初，市场计价美联储降息带来的利好，叠加欧美持续施压制裁俄油贸易、俄乌局势持续紧张，油价表现强势，周内 Brent主力合约突破68美金/桶。周四美联储降息25BP，未超出市场预期，美元指数触底反弹，宏观风险偏好回落，而 地缘端无更多利好，油价大幅回调。临近周末，Brent主力跌至66美金/桶附近。 供需方面，8、9月份欧佩克持续增产，中东地区原油需求旺季结束， Dubai月差走弱、原油发运量高位 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 23 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-22原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 1.基本面：投资者对需求前景的担忧拖累油价，随着夏季消费旺季结束，炼油厂对原油的需求将持续 下降。炼厂检修季将进一步降低需求，炼油厂通常在春秋两季关闭生产装置进行大规模检修；据知情 人士透露，欧盟正考虑针对其剩余的俄罗斯石油进口采取贸易措施。该联盟执行机构正在审查通过 "友谊"输油管道向匈牙利和斯洛伐克输送的俄油持续进口情况；中性 2.基差：9月19日，阿曼原油现货价为69.51元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为68.81元/桶，基差30.18元/ 桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至9月12日当周AP ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market has a slight edge for bearish factors. Concerns about oversupply and weak signs on the demand side are the main pressures suppressing oil prices. Although oil prices once broke through the previous low - level oscillation range supported by geopolitical factors and the volatility increased, there was a lack of follow - up momentum after the positive factors were realized. The development of geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East needs to be monitored. For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, high - sulfur fuel oil supply tightened due to reduced shipments from major exporters, and its demand and inventory showed mixed trends; low - sulfur fuel oil supply tended to be loose due to increased exports from Nigeria [3][4][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - OPEC + continues the production increase plan. In October, OPEC + will increase production by 13.7 million barrels per day. Since the first quarter of 2025, the actual crude oil production increase of OPEC + has been about 1.5 million barrels per day, significantly lower than the announced target of 2.5 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price to Asian customers and asked buyers to increase提货量, and its production in August increased by 258,000 barrels per day to 9.71 million barrels per day. The attack on Russian energy facilities and new sanctions may bring short - term supply risk premiums [3][11]. - U.S. crude oil production remains at a high level [22]. Demand Side - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but this has been fully anticipated by the market. It is more of a preventive measure against potential economic risks, and it is difficult to quickly boost demand. After the interest rate cut, the U.S. dollar index rose instead of falling, weakening the attractiveness of dollar - denominated crude oil. The performance during the distillate oil stocking peak season was poor, leading to an inverse - seasonal increase in inventory. The operating rate of U.S. refineries decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 93.3% from the annual high, indicating the gradual start of traditional autumn inspections [4]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the power generation demand from the Middle East will seasonally decline, Saudi Arabia's imports will decrease, but Egypt's procurement will increase. In the industrial field, fuel oil demand is challenged by the extension of natural gas pipeline networks and the acceleration of power substitution, and there are concerns about the long - term demand outlook [7]. Inventory - As of September 12, EIA data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels, and Cushing inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 100,000 barrels, and distillate oil inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1 million barrels [4][44]. - In the week of September 15, the total inventory of Fujeirah petroleum products plummeted by 18%, decreasing by 2.935 million barrels to 13.089 million barrels, hitting a record low. In the week of September 17, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.118 million barrels to 25.41 million barrels, reaching a three - week low. In the week of September 11, ARA region's fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.5% to 1.04 million tons [7]. Global Crude Oil Balance Sheet - There has been unexpected inventory accumulation for two consecutive years, with a cumulative surplus of over 2.6 billion barrels of crude oil. From 2025 - 2026, non - OPEC production will increase from 67.5 to 70.3 million barrels per day (+4.1%), while OPEC production will only slightly increase by 0.7 million barrels per day. U.S. shale oil and Brazilian deep - sea oil are the main sources of incremental production. OECD demand has stagnated, and non - OECD demand has fluctuated sharply [59][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern, with Brent and WTI hovering in the range of $68 - 69 per barrel, and SC being relatively stronger due to warehouse receipt support [5]. - Supply tightening supports oil prices as Russian exports are blocked, US production declines, and OPEC+ continues to cut production, offsetting some demand concerns [5]. - There are differences in demand resilience. Strong US gasoline consumption offsets the weakness of distillates, but the weakening of Asian import demand limits the upside space [5]. - Macro - level pressure has not been lifted. Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the expectation of strategic petroleum reserve release and the risk of economic recession still put pressure on long - term prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On September 17, 2025, the domestic SC crude oil main contract rose slightly by 1.07% to 499.3 yuan per barrel, while WTI and Brent prices remained stable. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads strengthened by $0.92 per barrel to $1.78 and $5.72 per barrel respectively, and the Brent - WTI spread remained stable at $3.94 per barrel [2]. - SC warehouse receipt inventory decreased significantly by 320,000 barrels to 5.401 million barrels, and fuel oil warehouse receipts increased by 25,600 tons [3]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: Russian crude oil exports decreased due to drone attacks on Baltic ports by Ukraine. US shale oil production contracted marginally, and EIA data showed a week - on - week decline of 394,000 barrels per day in the week's put - into - production crude oil volume, along with a 3.111 million - barrel decrease in imports, leading to an unexpected drawdown of 9.285 million barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories. Personnel adjustments at Venezuela's state - owned oil company may bring uncertainty to its crude oil export stability [4]. - Demand side: The US refinery utilization rate dropped to 93.3% (expected 94.5%), but the derived data of crude oil demand significantly rebounded to 20.5 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels, indicating strong terminal consumption, while distillate inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels, showing weak industrial demand. Japan's crude oil imports in August decreased by 2.5% year - on - year [4]. - Inventory side: US Cushing inventories continued to decline by 296,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories slightly decreased by 10,000 barrels. Global crude oil visible inventories tightened overall, but the differentiation of refined oil inventories may limit refineries' restocking motivation [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose by 1.07% to 499.3 yuan per barrel, WTI decreased by 1.98% to $63.27 per barrel, and Brent decreased by 0.85% to $67.91 per barrel [7]. - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, while prices of other types of crude oil such as Oman, Victory, etc. had different changes [7]. - Spreads: SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI spreads all increased, with increases of 153.76%, 43.74%, and 17.77% respectively [7]. - Other assets: The US dollar index rose by 0.35%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.10%, the DAX index rose by 0.13%, and the RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.15% [7]. - Inventory,开工: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.19%, Cushing inventories decreased by 1.24%, and the US refinery weekly utilization rate decreased by 1.69% [7]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose by 1.29% to 2,831 yuan per ton, LU rose by 1.89% to 3,459 yuan per ton, and NYMEX fuel oil decreased by 1.87% [8]. - Spot prices: Prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions had different changes [8]. - Spreads: The Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 4.67%, and other spreads also had corresponding changes [8]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventories decreased by 3.18%, and US distillate inventories had different degrees of increase or decrease [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - Venezuela appointed a new trade vice - president for its state - owned oil company on September 17, 2025, which may affect its crude oil export policy [9]. - US EIA data showed a decrease in put - into - production crude oil volume and imports in the week ending September 12, and Russian weekly crude oil exports decreased significantly due to drone attacks [10]. - Japan's crude oil and LNG imports in August decreased year - on - year [10]. 3.3.2 Demand - US EIA data showed a decrease in distillate fuel production - derived demand, refinery equipment utilization rate, and refined oil and gasoline production in the week ending September 12 [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - US EIA data showed a significant drawdown in crude oil inventories in the week ending September 12, along with changes in other types of inventories such as strategic reserves, Cushing inventories, and refined oil inventories [12]. - On September 17, 2025, the warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange decreased by 320,000 barrels, and fuel oil warehouse receipts increased by 25,640 tons [12]. 3.3.4 Market Information - The expected Fed interest - rate decision upper limit is 4.25% (previous value 4.50%), and the lower limit is 4.00% (previous value 4.25%) [14]. - US President Trump had a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Modi to ease tensions between the two economies [14]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides 21 data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [15][17][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that OPEC+ has implemented production increases as planned in August 2025, indicating a recovery in oil supply [1] - Predictions for global oil supply and demand are optimistic, with significant increases expected in 2025 and 2026 [2][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production policies in influencing oil prices and market stability [4] Supply and Demand Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 to be 10582.51, 10552.82, and 10460.46 million barrels per day respectively, showing increases from 2024 [2][32] - For 2026, the predicted supply is 10787.62, 10664.34, and 10618.42 million barrels per day, indicating continued growth [2][32] - Global oil demand predictions for 2025 are 10387.45, 10380.99, and 10513.52 million barrels per day, with increases from 2024 [2][32] Price Trends - As of September 16, 2025, Brent crude oil is priced at $68.47, WTI at $64.52, and Russian ESPO at $63.69, with recent price changes showing slight increases [9][10] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent down by 9.82%, WTI down by 11.77%, and Russian ESPO down by 11.48% [9][10] Inventory Insights - Global oil inventory changes are predicted to be +195.06, +171.83, and -53.06 thousand barrels per day for 2025, with an average increase of +104.61 thousand barrels per day [27] - For 2026, the average inventory change is expected to be +150.95 thousand barrels per day [27] Related Companies - Key companies in the industry include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, but it provides insights into market trends and forecasts that could influence investment decisions. Core Insights - Oil prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production increases, but ultimately declining as supply forecasts were adjusted upward by EIA and IEA [1][2]. - OPEC+ has increased production significantly since May, with a total increase of over 1.2 million barrels per day from May to July, and plans to add 137,000 barrels per day in October [2]. - Demand forecasts for oil have been adjusted, with IEA predicting an increase of 740,000 barrels per day for 2025, while EIA's forecast is slightly higher at 900,000 barrels per day [3]. Supply Summary - OPEC+ has been increasing production, with a total increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August and September [2]. - IEA and EIA have raised their forecasts for non-OPEC+ countries' production, expecting increases of 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1 million barrels per day in 2026 [2]. - The supply surplus is expected to grow, with EIA projecting a surplus of 1.73 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.55 million barrels per day in 2026 [3]. Demand Summary - The demand for oil is expected to rise, particularly in Asia, but the growth in demand is not expected to match the increase in supply [3]. - EIA's forecast for 2026 indicates an increase in demand of 1.28 million barrels per day, reflecting a positive adjustment from previous estimates [3]. Inventory Summary - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 3.939 million barrels in the week ending September 5, indicating a build-up as the summer demand season ends [3]. - Gasoline inventories also saw an increase of 1.458 million barrels during the same period [3]. Price Support Analysis - The average breakeven price for U.S. oil companies developing new wells is approximately $65 per barrel, with larger companies having a breakeven price of around $61 per barrel [4]. - The operational cost for maintaining existing oil wells ranges from $26 to $45 per barrel, with larger companies needing about $31 per barrel [4]. - A significant portion of U.S. shale oil production is derived from new wells, which may not provide sufficient support for prices, as evidenced by oil prices falling below breakeven levels multiple times this year [4].