南华原油市场日报 ——油价反弹修复，但缺乏实质性利好支撑 2025年8月22日 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 盘面反弹修复，原油市场延续短线反弹态势，7月以来的横盘震荡格局得以巩固，虽无新驱动因素，但重心 小幅上移，主要归因于三方面：一是俄乌局势进展放缓，市场对局势快速降温的预期减弱，地缘溢价存在 情绪修复；二是需求仍处季节性峰值，拐点尚未显现，提供必要支撑；三是欧美原油进入移仓换月阶段， 近月空头减仓与远月多头增仓的仓位调整形成技术性支撑。不过，宏观情绪偏负面，恐慌指数低位抬升、 美股高位回调，未对原油形成利好。展望后市，8月下旬后需求将随美国夏季出行结束及炼厂秋检进入季节 性下滑通道，而OPEC+9月会议若如预期决定10月暂停增产，短期或提振情绪，但因产量配额已处高位，叠 加需求下滑，供需失衡压力将使基本面对原油呈利空导向。同时，美联储9月降息预期概率降至75%，年底 降息预期次数缩减。整体来看，近期反弹缺乏实质性利好支撑，上行空间有限，未来逻辑中性偏空，需警 惕下行风险及宏观情绪波动带来的影响。 【多空分析】 一、多头 ...

原油：等待美俄会谈落地，油价低位震荡 正信期货原油周报 20250818 研究员：付馨苇 投资咨询编号：Z0022192 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 5 原油供需平衡总结 内容要点 Ø 宏观方面：美国CPI符合预期，降息预期升温。CME"美联储观察" ：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为15.4%，降息25个基点 的概率为84.6%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为42.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为51.5%。 Ø 供应端：地缘方面，8月15俄罗斯总统普京与美国总统特朗普的会谈落地。特朗普表示，与普京的会晤"极其富有成效"，但 同时强调，结束冲突的协议尚未最终达成。总体谈判气氛积极，但没有实质内容。美国方面，美国至8月15日当周石油钻井总数 412口，前值411口。欧佩克方面，OPEC+八国于达成9月增产54.8万桶/日的决议，全面退出自2023年起八个成员国实施的220万 桶/日减产协议。7月份欧佩克+原油 ...

主要能源机构8月平衡表 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号： Z0016296 2025年8月13日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 EIA 02 OPEC 01 EIA 1.1 EIA平衡表 供应 消费 平衡 平衡变化 2025Q1 103.59 102.16 +1.43 +0.26 2025Q2 105.06 103.71 +1.35 +0.08 2025Q3 106.11 104.49 +1.62 +0.88 2025Q4 106.63 104.53 +2.10 +1.03 2025 105.35 103.72 +1.06 +0.56 2026Q1 105.77 103.51 +2.26 +0.50 2026Q2 106.37 104.90 +1.47 +0.40 资料来源：EIA 全球原油平衡 -4 -2 0 2 4 21-1 21-7 22-1 22-7 23-1 23-7 24-1 24-7 25-1 25-7 26-1 26-7 全球原油平衡 预估值 EIA在8月报告中进一步全面强化了今明年每个季度供应过剩的 程度（其中今年106万桶/日→163万桶 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as Russia - US negotiations have recently caused many disturbances, leading to a short - term decline in oil prices. However, the overall good performance of crude oil processing demand and the weak actual production increase of OPEC+ support oil prices. The supply side has uncertainties, and the demand side shows an overall upward trend with stable growth [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly View and Strategy - **Inventory**: Last week, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.3 million barrels to 227.1 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 565,000 barrels to 113 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma increased by 453,000 barrels [4][20]. - **Supply**: US crude oil production remained at 13.3 million barrels per day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, and 8 OPEC+ countries are expected to increase production by a cumulative 2.467 million barrels per day from April to September. Since 2022, OPEC+ has cut production by 5.85 million barrels per day, about 5.7% of global supply. The supply side has uncertainties [4][33]. - **Demand**: US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 213,000 barrels per day to 17.124 million barrels per day, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 1.5 percentage points to 96.9%. Gasoline demand decreased by 112,000 barrels per day but remained above 9 million barrels per day. In June, China's industrial crude oil processing increased year - on - year, and the demand side is expected to rise steadily [4]. - **View**: Geopolitical factors have led to a short - term decline in oil prices, but good processing demand and weak OPEC+ production increase support oil prices. The supply - side production increase progress needs to be observed, and the demand side is expected to be boosted [4]. - **Strategy**: Buy operations [4] 3.2. Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides detailed data on global crude oil production, consumption, inventory net withdrawals, and end - of - period inventories from 2024 to 2025, including breakdowns by OPEC, non - OPEC, OECD, and non - OECD regions [6]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: It shows the processing flow of crude oil from the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit to various refined products such as ethylene, propylene, diesel, and gasoline [9] 3.3. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures - Spot Structure**: It presents data on domestic and foreign price differences, monthly price differences, INE crude oil futures - spot price differences, and BRENT crude oil term price differences [11][13][15] - **Freight Index and Port Freight Rates**: It shows the trends of the crude oil transportation index (BDTI), the refined oil transportation index (BCTI), and port freight rates [16] 3.4. Inventory - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: Last week, due to increased exports, US crude oil inventory decreased, and the net import volume also decreased [4][20]. - **China Crude Oil Inventory**: In June, the inventory increment declined because of the increase in domestic crude oil processing demand [25]. - **Crude Oil Warehouse Receipts**: The INE crude oil warehouse receipts have recently remained at a low level, indicating a low inventory level of deliverable oil depots [29] 3.5. Supply Side - **OPEC Production**: In June, OPEC+ daily crude oil production was 41.559 million barrels, an increase of 349,000 barrels from May but lower than the planned increase. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the 8 - country production increase plan from April to September is 2.467 million barrels per day [33]. - **US Production**: Last week, US crude oil production remained at 13.3 million barrels per day. The growth space of US shale oil production is limited, and the production may enter a bottleneck period [38]. - **Global Production**: The supply side has uncertainties, including the uncertain OPEC+ production increase process, the impact of sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan crude oil, and the limited growth of US shale oil production [42] 3.6. Demand Side - **China Demand**: In June, China's industrial crude oil processing increased year - on - year. With the boost of travel demand, China's crude oil demand is expected to recover. China's crude oil imports and exports data from January to July 2025 are also provided [49][54][57]. - **US Demand**: US refinery crude oil processing volume increased, the capacity utilization rate rose, and gasoline demand remained above 9 million barrels per day. The US is in the driving season, and demand is slightly better than last year [61][64]

石化行业框架和反内卷专题 20250806 摘要 全球原油需求增长结构变化，中国需求下降，新兴经济体成主要拉动力 量，但全球原油需求增长仍维持在 70-80 万桶/天。 美国页岩油产量受资本开支纪律影响，4 月关税战后大幅下修资本开支 预期，导致今年美国页岩油产量几乎零增，目前产量约为 1,350 万桶/天， 或为阶段性峰值。 OPEC+通过主动调控供给稳定市场，沙特在减产中发挥核心作用，但 2024 年中期曾计划增产，直至 2025 年 4 月才落地，并加速增产。 短期内，原油市场面临下行风险，包括季节性需求回落、OPEC 逐步增 产以及中国和印度囤库完成，可能导致油价跌至 70 美元以下。 中石油被视为红利属性最强标的，天然气板块成本与油价相关，业绩相 对平稳，预计今年利润水平可达 1,400-1,500 亿元。 石化行业面临供给压力和原料压力，炼油能力过剩，成品油需求衰减， 乙烯自给率上升，预计"十五五"规划将调整政策方向。 恒力石化和荣盛石化是炼油弹性最大的标的，估值处于低位，盈利稳定， 若政策落地，有望通过 EPS 拉动实现业绩向上弹性。 Q&A 石油定价的基本逻辑是什么？ 石油定价的基本逻辑主要基 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil prices opened lower and rebounded, remaining in a low - level volatile state. Trump's remarks increased concerns about US sanctions on Russian oil. The IEA raised the global crude oil surplus forecast for 2025 but also mentioned a "near - term peak - season tightness." This week, the situation regarding sanctions and subsequent trade tariff issues is expected to become clearer, and the market will experience significant fluctuations. Short - term prices are expected to range between 507 - 513, and long - term investors are advised to add to their long positions on dips [3]. - The short - term market is driven by geopolitical conflicts, while in the long - term, it awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: US envoy Witkoff is expected to visit Russia on Wednesday. Trump set a Friday deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war, threatening new sanctions otherwise. Trump also plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase and resale of Russian oil. Venezuelan oil exports in July decreased by about 10% month - on - month due to partners awaiting US approval for business expansion [3]. - **Basis**: On August 4, the spot price of Oman crude was $71.20 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $70.51 per barrel, with a basis of 8.96 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price was at par with the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.5 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period increased by 7.698 million barrels, against the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 690,000 barrels. As of August 4, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.249 million barrels [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of July 29, the main long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil increased [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump plans to raise tariffs on Indian goods due to India's large - scale purchase and resale of Russian oil. In 2023, India became the largest market for Russian crude oil, and last year, Russia supplied about 550 million barrels of crude oil to India, while the US only exported 52 million barrels [5]. - The EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months according to an agreement with the US [5]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and well - known bond fund manager Gundlach believes the Fed will cut rates twice this year [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - **Positive Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to rise [6]. - **Negative Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 1.31%, - 1.54%, - 2.14%, and - 3.46% respectively [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.59% to - 3.77% [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API and EIA inventories showed different trends from May to July. API inventory increased by 1.539 million barrels in the week ending July 25, and EIA inventory increased by 7.698 million barrels during the same period [10][13]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position increased by 2,692 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position increased by 33,959 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy suggestion is to stay on the sidelines [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from a production - cut cycle to an increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase space of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August. However, the actual production increase is far from the target. It's recommended to focus on the actual production implementation of OPEC+ members [2][6][27] - There are concerns in the market that the US's secondary sanctions on Russia may disrupt Russian oil exports, but India and Brazil have refused to stop buying Russian oil, so the implementation of US sanctions may face challenges [2][7][27] - Overall, it is estimated that supply will exceed demand. The market will run weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual production execution of OPEC+ members [2][27] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices fluctuated. SC2509 opened at 513, reached a high of 535, a low of 501, and closed at 527, with a weekly increase of 15 or 2.92%. It showed short - term fluctuations [3] 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Maintains Its Stance on Production Increase - In June, OPEC's total production increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production increased by 173,000 barrels per day to 9.356 million barrels per day, and the UAE's production increased by 83,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day [5] - The OPEC+ JMMC meeting on July 28 did not propose production policy suggestions, pointed out that some countries did not comply with their quotas, and the next meeting will be held on October 1 [5] - Eight major oil - producing countries decided to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September, and will adjust the production increase rhythm flexibly according to market conditions [5] 3.2.2 Russia: Gradually Fulfilling Production Cuts, Monitor the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). Last month, Russia's daily crude oil loading was stable at 4.68 million barrels, and its daily refined oil exports decreased by 110,000 barrels to 2.55 million barrels [7] - IEA said that Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports in June were at an extremely low level, the lowest in the same period in five years. From 2024 to 2025, Russia's exports showed a downward trend, raising questions about its ability to maintain upstream production capacity [7] - Trump proposed to set a new deadline of 10 - 12 days for Russia. If there is no progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the US will impose tariffs and take other measures. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions on Russia, and the UK lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $47.60 per barrel from September 2. But India and Brazil refused to stop buying Russian oil, so the implementation of US secondary sanctions may face challenges [7] 3.2.3 US: Stable Production - The US's weekly crude oil production decreased by 41,000 barrels per day to 13.314 million barrels per day. As of July 25, the number of active oil - drilling rigs was 415, the lowest since September 2021, 7 less than the previous week and 67 less than the same period last year. The continuous decline in the number of oil rigs for three months has affected the growth of US crude oil production [8] - The US Energy Information Administration predicts that the US's daily crude oil production will drop to about 13.37 million barrels next year, from about 13.42 million barrels this year [8] 3.2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Growth - IEA's June monthly report: Global oil production capacity is expected to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. It is expected that global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025. The supply growth forecast for non - OPEC+ countries in 2025 has been lowered from 1.5 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and it is expected to reach 920,000 barrels per day in 2026 [14] - IEA's July monthly report: This year's global oil supply is expected to increase by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day compared with the previous forecast [14] - OPEC stated that in 2025, the supply from countries outside OPEC+ will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day [14] 3.2.5 Inventory: Decrease - As of April 2025, OECD's commercial crude oil and liquid inventories were 2.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 94.42 million barrels compared with the same period last year [15] - As of the week of July 25, 2025, according to API data, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.539 million barrels, and gasoline inventories decreased by 1.739 million barrels. According to EIA data, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 829.432 million barrels, an increase of 7.94 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventories were 426.691 million barrels, an increase of 7.7 million barrels; and gasoline inventories were 228.405 million barrels, a decrease of 2.73 million barrels [15] 3.2.6 Consumption: Weak - The disappointing US non - farm payroll data has raised expectations of interest rate cuts, which may boost weak crude oil demand. In July, the US non - farm employment only increased by 73,000, far below market expectations, and historical data was significantly revised downward. On one hand, the weak labor market has increased concerns about slowing oil demand; on the other hand, market expectations of US interest rate cuts have risen, and there is a possibility that interest rate cuts will boost crude oil demand [20] - Both IEA and EIA have lowered their forecasts for new crude oil demand, and the predicted new demand is less than the new supply. In IEA's July monthly report, it mentioned that the consumption in emerging crude oil markets is weak, and the forecast for the increase in crude oil demand in 2025 is 700,000 barrels per day, a contraction of 400,000 barrels per day compared with the beginning of the year. EIA's July monthly report also shows a similar downward trend, with the forecast for demand increase in 2025 at 800,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 500,000 barrels per day compared with the beginning of the year [20] 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from a production - cut cycle to an increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase space of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August. However, the actual production increase is far from the target. It's recommended to focus on the actual production implementation of OPEC+ members [27] - There are concerns in the market that the US's secondary sanctions on Russia may disrupt Russian oil exports, but India and Brazil have refused to stop buying Russian oil, so the implementation of US sanctions may face challenges [27] - Overall, it is estimated that supply will exceed demand. The market will run weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual production execution of OPEC+ members [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The improvement of the macro - sentiment due to the US reaching tariff agreements with major economies and the rise in geopolitical risk premiums are the main drivers for the rebound of domestic and international oil prices this week. However, with OPEC+ oil - producing countries continuing to accelerate production increases in September, the supply is under negative pressure, and the supply - demand structure of crude oil has weakened. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [5][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Price Soars and Basis Discount Narrows Significantly - As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was reported at $71.26 per barrel, equivalent to RMB 509.5 per barrel, with a significant weekly increase of RMB 26.3 per barrel. The main contract 2509 of domestic crude oil futures closed at RMB 527.9 per barrel, rising significantly by RMB 15.0 per barrel week - on - week. The discount narrowed significantly, and the basis between the two was RMB 18.4 per barrel [9]. 3.1.2 Oil - Producing Countries Increase Production Again, and Crude Oil Declines Weakly - The US reaching tariff agreements with other countries improves the macro - factor, boosting the risk appetite of the global commodity market. The US increasing sanctions on Russian crude oil may lead to a decline in supply. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries maintain the production increase plan for September, the actual supply growth may be less than expected. Due to OPEC+ continuing to accelerate production increases in September, under the suppression of supply negative factors, last Friday, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a weak downward trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed down 2.95% to RMB 513.0 per barrel [5][15]. 3.2 Escalation of Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus and Faster Production Increase Rhythm 3.2.1 OPEC+ Accelerates Capacity Release, and the Expectation of Supply Surplus Increases - After a significant and unexpected production increase in May, OPEC+ oil - producing countries accelerated production increases for the second consecutive month, exceeding market expectations. In May and June, they each increased production by 411,000 barrels per day. In the past three months, OPEC+ has cumulatively increased production by 2.2 million barrels per day, completing nearly half of the 18 - month production cutback task. Saudi Arabia, Russia and other countries have reiterated their commitment to market stability and increased production. This decision may suppress oil prices in the short term but may intensify quota disputes among members and raise concerns about supply surplus in the long term. In June 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 27.235 million barrels per day, with a slight month - on - month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 700,000 barrels per day [22][23][24]. 3.2.2 Non - OPEC Oil - Producing Countries' Capacity Remains at a High Level - As the leader of non - OPEC oil - producing countries, the US has maintained a high level of crude oil production since 2024. As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 415, a slight weekly decrease of 7 and a decrease of 67 compared to the same period last year. The US daily crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels, a slight weekly increase of 41,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 14,000 barrels per day. The EIA predicts that the growth rate of US domestic crude oil production in 2025 will slow down further, with an expected increase of 160,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day this year and flat production in 2026 [37][38]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil Demand in the Northern Hemisphere is in the Seasonal Peak - The US, as the largest crude oil consumer, has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. July - August is the peak season for gasoline consumption. However, after the US announced a comprehensive tariff policy, many financial institutions have adjusted their crude oil demand growth forecasts downward. Energy institutions such as EIA, IEA, and OPEC have also lowered their global crude oil demand growth expectations for 2025. It is expected that the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2025 will further decline [41][42]. 3.2.4 US Crude Oil Inventories Decrease Significantly, and Refinery Utilization Rate Increases Slightly - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.7 million barrels, a significant weekly increase of 7.698 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.358 million barrels compared to the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.553 million barrels, with a slight weekly increase of 690,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 402.7 million barrels, with a slight weekly increase of 238,000 barrels. The US refinery utilization rate was maintained at 95.4%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.1 percentage points, a slight monthly increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 5.3 percentage points [44]. 3.2.5 China's Crude Oil Imports Increase Slightly in June 2025 - In June 2025, China's crude oil production maintained a stable growth trend, with the output of industrial enterprises above the designated size reaching 18.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The crude oil processing volume turned from a decline to an increase, reaching 62.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In June, China's crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase of 7.38%. Looking forward to 2025, China's crude oil processing and import consumption may be restricted by weak demand [48]. 3.3 Iran - Israel Ceasefire, and Crude Oil Premium Drops Significantly - Since the Iran - Israel conflict, domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. After the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, the crude oil premium has rapidly shrunk. The conflict has exposed Iran's weaknesses in internal security, air defense systems, and the influence of the main - peace faction [59]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Decrease Significantly Week - on - Week - Since July 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak and volatile trend, and the market's bullish power has shrunk. As of July 22, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 153,331 contracts, a significant weekly decrease of 9,096 contracts and a significant decrease of 52,648 contracts compared to the June average, a decline of 25.56%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 227,245 contracts, a significant weekly decrease of 11,576 contracts, and a significant increase of 40,622 contracts compared to the June average, an increase of 21.83% [61].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are facing downward pressure due to OPEC+ decisions to increase production and concerns over global energy demand [1][2][5] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September [1] - The eight countries involved in this decision include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman [1] - OPEC+ has shifted from a reduction strategy to an increase strategy, with a cumulative increase of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August [1] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - On August 1, international oil prices saw a significant drop, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices falling nearly 3% [2] - Brent crude oil futures for October fell below $70 per barrel [2] - The decline in oil prices is linked to disappointing U.S. employment data and concerns over global energy demand due to U.S. tariff policies [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global crude oil supply is increasing, with EIA reporting a June production of 104.9 million barrels per day, up by 628,000 barrels from May [3] - Demand for crude oil is growing at a slower pace, with EIA reporting a June demand of 104.43 million barrels per day, an increase of 182,000 barrels from May [3] - OECD commercial crude oil and petroleum product inventories stood at 2.796 billion barrels at the end of June, a decrease of 420,000 barrels from May [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict a long-term oversupply in the oil market, with countries like India and Brazil continuing to purchase Russian oil despite U.S. pressure [5] - The end of the peak consumption season for refined products is expected to exert further pressure on crude oil prices [5] - Current oil prices are anticipated to have downward potential, with opportunities for short positions in the future [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market features "strong reality, weak expectation", with short - term support factors and long - term suppression logic coexisting. In the short term, factors such as the peak consumption season, improved macro - environment, and OPEC+ actual production increase lower than planned support oil prices. In the long term, OPEC+ is expected to fully release the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase by the end of the fourth quarter, while seasonal demand will weaken, leading to a long - term structural surplus. The proposed US sanctions on Russia may cause short - term supply concerns and oil price rebounds, but the actual supply reduction may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure of WTI crude oil prices at $70 - 72 per barrel, and consider short positions if sanctions are lower than market expectations [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, oil prices first fluctuated widely and then rose. The "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern of crude oil, the expected peak consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, and the decline in EIA crude oil inventories supported oil prices. Although OPEC+ planned to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, the market had already priced it in, and the actual increase was much smaller. The threat of US sanctions on Russia also supported oil price rebounds. However, in the fourth quarter, the shift from peak to off - peak consumption and OPEC+ production increases may lead to supply surpluses and limit oil price increases [5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Trade Agreements - The short - term trade tension has been alleviated as the US reached trade agreements with China, the EU, and Japan. However, the long - term impact on the global economy is still uncertain. The US also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil [6]. 3.2.2 Fed's Interest Rate Decision - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. There were two dissenting votes advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September rate cut dropped from about 65% to below 50% [10]. 3.2.3 Geopolitical Tensions - Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine by August 8. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about supply disruptions and supported oil prices [11]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 OPEC+ Production - OPEC+ increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. It is expected to continue increasing production in September to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target. However, Kazakhstan's failure to cut production as promised may lead to concerns about an internal price war within OPEC+ [14][15]. 3.3.2 Forecasts from Different Institutions - In July, IEA raised the global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts [17]. 3.3.3 Supply from Different Regions - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 221,000 barrels per day in June, mainly due to Saudi Arabia's production increase. Non - OPEC production increased by 129,000 barrels per day, mainly from Kazakhstan and Russia. US crude oil production decreased by 120,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 25, and the number of oil rigs also decreased [19][21][24]. 3.3.4 Demand from Different Regions - China's apparent crude oil consumption increased by 3% in June. However, China's manufacturing PMI decreased in July. In the US, refinery utilization rates increased, but the manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and the Chicago PMI continued to decline [32][38][39]. 3.3.5 Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 7.74 million barrels in the week ending July 25. Although the seasonal peak may drive inventory reduction, the reduction space is limited [48].