Group 1 - The IMF projects that the U.S. government debt will exceed 143.4% of GDP by 2030, increasing by over 20 percentage points from current levels [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen praised Japan's expansionary fiscal policy during a meeting with Japan's Finance Minister, although no discussions on monetary policy details took place [1] - The negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. regarding a $350 billion investment project are currently stalled, with key issues such as investment methods, amounts, and timelines still under dispute [2] Group 2 - Argentina's ruling coalition led by President Milei won the midterm elections, alleviating investor concerns about potential stagnation in economic reforms [2] - The German business climate index rose from 87.7 to 88.4 in October, indicating improvements in manufacturing, services, and trade, despite a decline in business satisfaction for the third consecutive month [2] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.71% to 47,544.59 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 1.23% to 6,875.16 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 1.86% to 23,637.46 points, all reaching new historical highs [3] - COMEX gold futures fell by 3.40% to $3,997.00 per ounce, and silver futures dropped by 3.61% to $46.83 per ounce [4] Group 4 - U.S. oil futures rose by 0.08% to $61.55 per barrel, while Brent crude futures decreased by 0.09% to $65.14 per barrel [5] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 0.64 basis points to 3.482%, with similar declines observed across other maturities [5] Group 5 - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.12% to 98.82, while the euro and British pound appreciated against the dollar [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the three major RMB exchange rate indices indicates a weakening of the Chinese yuan against a basket of currencies, with the CFETS index hitting its lowest level since December 2020 [1][2]. Exchange Rate Indices - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index is reported at 95.36, down 0.56% week-on-week, marking a low not seen since December 2020 [1][2]. - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index stands at 100.73, down 0.78% week-on-week, the lowest since July 2023 [1][2]. - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index is at 90.21, down 0.54% week-on-week, the lowest since August 2020 [1][2]. Market Context - The geopolitical situation and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have contributed to a decline in the US dollar, which fell 1.52% last week to 97.26, its lowest in nearly three years [5]. - Non-USD currencies saw gains, with the Swiss franc rising 2.35%, the British pound up 1.97%, and the euro increasing by 1.7% [5]. - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1711, down 126 basis points for the week, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1729, down 65 basis points, a decline of 0.09% [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the future trajectory of the RMB is closely tied to the outlook for the US dollar, with a clear direction for gradual appreciation of the RMB in the medium to long term [6]. - Li Liuyang, Chief Analyst at CICC, indicates that the RMB exchange rate will maintain a moderate appreciation in a weak dollar environment, supported by stable exchange rate policies [5][6]. Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to May, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 27,204.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to the previous four months [7]. - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to May, total operating revenue of state-owned enterprises was 328,062.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while total profits were 16,514.5 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the CFETS RMB exchange rate index increased by 0.43% to 95.92 as of June 20 [1] - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index rose by 0.58% to 101.51 [2] - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index saw an increase of 0.39% to 90.75 [2]