2月18日，海外股市、黄金、白银集体拉升。 欧洲股市高开高走，英国富时指数涨逾1%，续刷历史新高；法国CAC指数涨0.53%，德国DAX指数涨 0.91%。 土耳其主要银行指数涨幅扩大，上涨超3%；土耳其主要的伊斯坦布尔证交所100指数上涨2%。 国际油价突然拉升，布伦特原油期货涨近2%，WTI原油期货盘中涨幅也扩大至近2%。消息面上，斯洛 伐克政府宣布石油紧急状态，将动用国家石油储备。 国际金属全线走强，截至发稿，现货黄金上涨0.8%，现货白银涨超3%。LME伦铜涨幅扩大至1%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月18日，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬会见到访的俄罗斯能源部部长齐维廖夫。佩 泽希齐扬表示，伊朗决心迅速准确地落实两国全面战略合作计划，并推动两国合作实现飞跃。他表示， 本地区各国应拓展彼此关系，使其无需借助域外势力干预即可解决本地区事务。 此前，当地时间2月17日，第二轮伊美间接谈判在瑞士日内瓦举行。伊朗外长阿拉格齐当天介绍，目前 双方立场仍存在差距。但是，一个"新的机会之窗"已经打开。美国副总统万斯17日表示，美伊谈判"在 某些方面进展顺利"，但伊方尚不愿意承认美国总统提出的部分"红线"。 另外，在瑞士日内瓦举 ...

Group 1: Employment and Economic Indicators - In January, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, significantly exceeding market expectations of 70,000, with the previous value revised down to 48,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month, also above expectations [1][6] - The U.S. budget deficit for the first four months of the fiscal year 2026 decreased by 17%, from $840 billion in the same period last year to $697 billion. This reduction was aided by increased tariff revenues, although it is insufficient to offset other factors that may expand the deficit [6][7] Group 2: International Trade and Aid - The European Parliament approved a financial aid package for Ukraine, which will provide €90 billion in loans from 2026 to 2027, with €60 billion allocated for defense needs [2][7] - French wine and spirits exports to the U.S. fell below 30 million cases in 2025, with a 21% decrease in export value to €3 billion, attributed to geopolitical tensions and currency fluctuations [2][7] Group 3: Commodity Markets - OPEC reported that the average total oil production of OPEC+ in January was 42.45 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day from the previous month, due to production declines in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran [2][7] - Crude oil prices saw an increase, with the main U.S. oil contract rising by 1.45% to $64.89 per barrel, and Brent oil increasing by 1.15% to $69.60 per barrel [4][8] Group 4: Financial Markets - U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 6.41 basis points to 3.512%, and the 10-year yield rising by 2.77 basis points to 4.170% [5][8] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.07% to 96.92, while non-U.S. currencies showed mixed performance against the dollar [5][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent sharp decline in the market does not change the global inflation narrative, with the core driver of overseas markets being Trump's policies [1] - Domestic policies clearly aim to boost inflation, and globally, geopolitical tensions continue to drive the competition for mineral and energy resources [2] - In the short - term, be vigilant about market volatility, while in the long - term, inflation trends remain unchanged unless there is an economic recession or strong interest - rate hike expectations [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh's policy of "rate cuts + balance - sheet reduction" led to a significant decline in silver and gold prices, and put pressure on Bitcoin, precious metals, and US stocks. On February 10, Warsh may make his first public speech as a Fed candidate [1] - Hasset believes that employment data may slow down, but it does not hinder strong economic growth [1] - The central economic work conference emphasized consumption promotion and price stability. The central bank cut interest rates on January 15, and the Ministry of Finance issued five important policy documents on January 20 [2] - The US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January, with the ADP employment increase of 22,000 people, lower than the expected 45,000. The US and India reached a trade agreement framework, and Trump confirmed India's commitment to stop importing Russian oil [2] - The ruling coalition in Japan won a majority in the House of Representatives election. Prime Minister Kaoi Sanae announced plans to discuss food tax cuts and promote private - public investment [2][4] - Due to the political turmoil of UK Prime Minister Starmer, the UK's stock, bond, and foreign - exchange markets all declined [2][4] Commodity Analysis - In the non - ferrous sector, long - term supply constraints remain unresolved, and precious metals have regained allocation value after the adjustment. In the energy sector, OPEC+ will keep oil production stable in March. The US plans to "sell on behalf" of Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel [2] - In the chemical sector, products like methanol and PTA are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage. For agricultural products, weather and short - term pig diseases need attention, and for the black metal sector, domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair potential are key points [2] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals on dips [3] Important News - Hasset expects a slight decline in employment data, consistent with high GDP growth [4] - Kaoi Sanae will promote food tax - cut discussions in Japan, not issue deficit bonds, and seek to raise funds through non - tax revenues and subsidy reviews. She hopes to visit the US next month [4] - The ruling coalition in Japan won a majority in the House of Representatives election [4] - Two key officials of UK Prime Minister Starmer resigned [4] - Zelensky said the US hopes to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict by summer, and a new round of tripartite talks may be held this week [2][4]

Market Analysis - Trump announced Kevin Warsh as the nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, aiming for a "rate cut + balance sheet reduction" policy, which led to silver dropping over 30% and gold experiencing an 11% decline, the largest single-day drop since March 1980[1] - The current tight liquidity environment necessitates aggressive rate cuts to achieve Warsh's balance sheet reduction goals, with Fed Governor Milan suggesting a need for more than 100 basis points of rate cuts this year[1] - The December Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy, with a 0.25 percentage point rate cut announced on January 15[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in January, with growth rates reaching the fastest level since 2022, driven by new orders and production increases[2] - The ADP reported a job increase of 22,000 in January, falling short of the expected 45,000, indicating a cooling labor market despite some stability signs[5] - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with ongoing negotiations regarding oil supplies and trade agreements, including a deal between the U.S. and India to reduce tariffs from 25% to 18%[2] Commodity Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector continues to face supply constraints, maintaining high certainty for investment, while precious metals regain allocation value post-adjustment[3] - OPEC+ plans to maintain stable oil production in March, with geopolitical factors providing short-term support for oil prices, although long-term expectations for Venezuelan production increases pose risks[3] - The chemical sector shows resilience against downturns, while agricultural products remain sensitive to weather conditions and disease outbreaks in livestock[3] Strategy and Risks - The recommendation is to accumulate positions in precious metals on dips, while being cautious of geopolitical risks and potential economic downturns impacting risk assets[4] - Key risks include geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices, unexpected global economic downturns, and tighter monetary policies from the Federal Reserve[4]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The general trend of inflation narrative remains unchanged, and the current sharp decline in precious metals does not change this trend [1][2] - Domestic policies clearly promote inflation, and the global geopolitical situation remains tense, which may drive up inflation [2] - In the short term, be vigilant against market fluctuations, and different commodity sectors have different investment opportunities and risks [3] Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and the market priced in the "review of Fed independence", causing silver to fall by over 30% and gold to fall by 11%, the largest single - day decline since March 1980 [1] - The core driver overseas is Trump's policies, with the core appeal of nominating Warsh being to cut interest rates, lower credit card rates, and boost the real estate market [1] - Fed Governor Milan said the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year [1][5] Inflation and Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized measures to boost consumption and regulate "involution - style" competition [2] - On January 15, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [2] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance issued 5 important policy documents to support various types of loans [2] - On February 3, 2026, the Central No. 1 Document was released to promote rural revitalization [2][5] Geopolitical and Trade - Trump said negotiations on Greenland are about to reach an agreement [2] - On February 2, Trump announced that the US and India had reached a trade agreement, with the US "reciprocal tariff" on India dropping from 25% to 18%, and India reducing tariffs and non - tariff barriers to zero and promising to buy over $500 billion worth of US energy products [2][5] - Trump said the US is negotiating with Iran, and the Iranian Supreme Leader's advisor said a "negotiation framework" is taking shape [3][5] Commodity Analysis - The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector remain unrelieved, and precious metals have allocation value again after the adjustment [3] - OPEC+ plans to keep oil production stable in March, and the US will "sell on behalf of" Venezuelan oil, with Trump hoping to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel [3] - In the chemical sector, methanol, PTA and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [3] - For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases; for the black sector, focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, go long on precious metals at low prices [4]

Core Insights - The volatility in the U.S. stock market is significantly lower compared to other asset classes, with gold and oil experiencing notable fluctuations [1] - Geopolitical risks are driving increased volatility in commodities and currencies, while stock market volatility remains concentrated at the individual stock level [1][2] - Gold has seen a remarkable rise in 2026, achieving its largest monthly gain since 1999, despite a recent sharp decline [1][2] Group 1: Market Volatility - U.S. stock market volatility is subdued, while gold and oil markets are experiencing heightened fluctuations [1] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remains below its one-year average, indicating low overall market volatility despite individual stock movements [1] - The divergence in stock price movements has led to a decrease in overall volatility metrics, with individual stocks like Microsoft showing significant price drops [2] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold's recent performance has been characterized by a significant increase in both spot prices and volatility, with a record inflow into gold ETFs [2] - The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has attracted over $20 billion in the past eight months, reflecting strong investor interest [2] - The implied volatility of GLD has reached historical highs relative to the S&P 500, indicating a strong demand for bullish bets on gold [2] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar has faced significant downward pressure, particularly against the Japanese yen, following geopolitical developments and comments from President Trump [4][5] - The appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair has led to a more stable bond market, with investors showing interest in shorting long-term bond volatility [5] - Despite low implied volatility in the bond market, there is a narrowing path for potential U.S. interest rate cuts, as indicated by options on secured overnight financing rates (SOFR) [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Global Macro Environment** with a focus on currency fluctuations, particularly the **US Dollar (USD)**, and its implications for various markets and economies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **USD Weakness**: The USD has weakened sharply, with the DXY index dropping to **96.2**, a decline of **0.9%**. This is attributed to President Trump's comments indicating he is unconcerned about the dollar's decline, suggesting it should "just seek its own level" [5][2][1]. 2. **Market Reactions**: The weakening dollar has led to a sell-off in long-end rates as market participants speculate on potential FX interventions. The US 10-year yield rose to **4.24%**, an increase of **2.6 basis points** [5][2][1]. 3. **Safe-Haven Assets**: Investors are migrating towards safe-haven currencies and gold, which has increased by **3%** to nearly **$5,200/oz**. The Swiss Franc (CHF) gained **2%** against the USD, while the Euro (EUR) surpassed **1.20**, a high not seen since 2021 [5][2][1]. 4. **Oil Prices**: Brent oil prices climbed by **3%** to nearly **$68/bbl** due to weather-related supply disruptions, with US oil production reportedly losing up to **2 million barrels per day**, approximately **15%** of national output [5][2][1]. 5. **Inflation Expectations**: Rising oil prices and a weakening USD have boosted inflation expectations, leading to a steepening of the US rates curve. Long-end rates underperformed, while front-end rates strengthened following a miss in consumer confidence data [5][2][1]. 6. **Emerging Markets Performance**: Emerging market currencies, particularly in Latin America, have outperformed amid the dollar's decline. The Brazilian Real (BRL) appreciated by **1.9%** against the USD [5][2][1]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Government Shutdown Speculation**: Prediction markets are pricing in a potential partial government shutdown, with Senate Republicans hesitant to pass the Homeland Security funding bill separately from other unpassed funding bills [5][2][1]. 2. **Japanese Yen (JPY) Movements**: The JPY gained **1.3%** to approximately **152.6 per USD** as Japan's Finance Minister reiterated intentions to coordinate FX actions with the US [8][2][1]. 3. **UK Fiscal Concerns**: Long-end gilts sold off due to fiscal concerns following the UK government's announcement of tax breaks for businesses, indicating potential instability in the UK bond market [8][2][1]. 4. **Central Bank Actions**: The Bank of Chile (BCCh) maintained its policy rate at **4.50%**, signaling a flexible stance that may allow for future cuts, while the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) kept its rate at **6.50%** but hinted at possible cuts if conditions stabilize [10][14][1]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic environment's impact on currencies, commodities, and market expectations.

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, with expectations that the policy rate will remain unchanged at 2.25%. The key factor is not the rate adjustment itself, but the guidance in the decision statement [1] - If the central bank reiterates that the current interest rate level is appropriate and that inflation targets still require time to validate, a dovish signal will further delay rate hike expectations, weakening the CAD's interest rate advantage and pushing USD/CAD towards the 1.3600 range [1] - Conversely, if the statement highlights concerns over global demand slowdown and escalating trade frictions, it may suppress market expectations for a rapid appreciation of the CAD, thus limiting the downward space for the exchange rate [1] Group 2 - The CAD's performance is closely tied to oil prices, with WTI crude stabilizing around $61.10, providing temporary support for the CAD [2] - The current supply-side tightening and regional supply disruptions are likely to push oil price volatility higher, benefiting Canada as an energy-exporting nation by improving trade conditions and boosting corporate profits and fiscal revenues [2] - Technically, USD/CAD remains in a delicate balance, with the downtrend from the previous high of 1.3927 unbroken. The price has returned below 1.3700 and is testing lower levels, indicating persistent selling pressure above [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent market turmoil characterized by a simultaneous decline in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar, while gold and silver prices reached historical highs. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.4%, and the dollar index decreased by 1.9% to 97.5 [2][124] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.7% to $65.9 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices rose by 7.5% to $4936.0 per ounce, and COMEX silver prices surged by 15.4% to $102.9 per ounce [2][49][124] - The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy during its January meeting but revised its 2026 core CPI forecast (excluding fresh food) upward to 1.9% and its GDP growth forecast to 1.0% [2][98][124] Group 2 - The article highlights the performance of various stock indices, noting that developed market indices experienced declines, while emerging market indices mostly rose. For instance, the Brazilian IBOVESPA index increased by 8.5% [3][8] - In the U.S. market, most sectors within the S&P 500 saw gains, particularly energy, materials, and communication services, which rose by 3.1%, 2.6%, and 1.1% respectively [8][9] - The Hang Seng Index and its sub-indices, such as the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Technology Index, all experienced declines, with the former down by 0.7% [14][15] Group 3 - The article notes that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remained stable, while yields on 10-year bonds in developed countries mostly increased, with Italy's yield rising by 10.1 basis points to 3.52% [20][21] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly decreased, with Turkey's yield increasing by 122.0 basis points to 29.29%, while India's yield fell by 1.4% to 6.66% [26][27] Group 4 - The article reports on U.S. consumer spending, indicating that the actual PCE consumption for November rose by 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, reflecting robust holiday season spending [92][93] - The article also mentions that the U.S. unemployment claims for the week ending January 17 were 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000, indicating a stable labor market [101][102] Group 5 - The article discusses President Trump's remarks at the World Economic Forum, where he indicated a pause on tariffs and expressed confidence in the U.S. economy, projecting a 5.4% growth rate for Q4 [83][84] - Trump's comments included a commitment to nuclear energy development and a call for Congress to set a credit card interest rate cap at 10% for one year, reflecting his administration's economic priorities [84]

Group 1: Macro Economic Indicators - The 10Y US Treasury yield rose by 6.0 basis points to 4.24%, while the dollar index increased by 0.2% to 99.37 [1][16] - The US TGA balance decreased to $777.1 billion as of January 14, with net issuance of US debt falling to -$9.23 million [1][50] - The US fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 reached $1.82 trillion, lower than the $1.91 trillion recorded in the same period of 2024 [1] Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Spending - The US core CPI for December was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% [1][68] - November retail sales in the US rose by 0.6%, surpassing the expected 0.5%, indicating resilience in consumer spending [1][71] Group 3: Market Performance - Major stock indices showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 down 0.4% and the Nasdaq down 0.7%, while emerging market indices generally rose [2][7] - In the commodities market, Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.9% to $53.76 per barrel, while COMEX gold and silver prices rose by 2.6% and 12.3%, respectively [1][34][41] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Market expectations for Kevin Walsh to become the next Federal Reserve Chair have increased significantly following weaker inflation data [1][63] - Federal Reserve officials expressed optimism regarding the US economy and productivity growth, with potential interest rate cuts being pushed to June and December [1][63]