隔夜股市 | 标的 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | -0.07% | | 深证成指 | -0.51% | | 恒生指数 | -1.17% | | 日经225指数 | -1.63% | | 韩国KOSPI | 0.03% | | 德国DAX30 | 0.02% | | 英国富时100 | -0.04% | | 法国CAC40 | 0.12% | | 欧洲斯托克50 | -0.33% | | 道琼斯指数 | 0.55% | | 标普500指数 | 0.01% | | 纳斯达克指数 | -0.44% | 美东时间周四，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.55%，标普500指数涨0.01%，纳指跌0.44%。热 门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.09%。 市场交易员目前至少计入了美联储今年两次降息的预期，尽管美联储在去年12月释放出明显分歧信号， 暗示2026年可能仅有一次降息。美联储预计将在本月会议上维持利率不变。因此，周五公布的12月美国 就业报告将成为市场关注的关键数据。 商品市场 | 标的 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | | NYMEX WTI原油 | 3.16 ...

报告日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 上证指数创史上最长连阳纪录 中国人民银行部署 2026 年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政 策工具，保持流动性充裕。据央视财经，我国情绪消费市场规模快速攀升，从 2022 年 1.63 万亿元升至 2024 年 2.31 万亿元，2025 年将达 2.72 万亿元，2029 年将突破 4.5 万亿元。昨日上证指数收涨 1.5%报 4083.67 点，创史上最长连阳 纪录。开源航班追踪数据和地面观察员的观测显示，近日有大批美军飞机突然飞 往欧洲，其中 1 月 3 日至少有 10 架 C-17 运输机从美国飞往欧洲，一名美国高级 官员表示，特朗普总统及其团队正在讨论多种获取格陵兰岛的方案。隔夜美债收 益率上行，美股再创新高，夜盘大宗商品价格普遍走强。 重点品种：股指、铝、焦煤 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指继续大幅上涨，有色金属板块领涨， 通信板块下跌，市场成交额 2.83 万亿元。资金方面，1 月 5 日融资余额增加 192.66 亿元至 25434.22 亿元。我们预计 2026 年供给侧改革持续并将推升大宗商品的价 ...

毛宁强调指出，中国和委内瑞拉的合作是主权国家之间的合作，是受到国际法和两国法律保护的。 经济观察网据央视新闻客户端消息，1月7日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。有记者就美国对委内 瑞拉石油业实施非法单边制裁提问。 毛宁表示，美国长期对委内瑞拉石油业实施非法的单边制裁，近日还悍然对委内瑞拉使用武力，严重冲 击了委内瑞拉的经济社会秩序，也威胁全球产供链的稳定，中方已经对此进行了强烈谴责。 ...

【资讯导读】 ·美联储官员：目前可能已接近"中性利率" ·阻止购买俄石油特朗普再次威胁对印度提高关税 ·受美封锁影响委内瑞拉被迫削减原油产量 ·法国民众消费降温 ·2026年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利表示，目前美国利率水平可能已接近"中性利率"， 未来美联储政策走向将取决于最新经济数据。 ·美联储前主席耶伦警告称，庞大的债务规模可能迫使央行将利率维持在低位以降低偿债成本，而非专 注于遏制通胀。据美国国会预算办公室预计，美国赤字今年将达1.9万亿美元，债务占GDP比重将升至 100%并持续攀升。 ·美国总统特朗普4日警告，如果印度不按美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提高对印度产品 征收的关税。 ·美国对委内瑞拉继续实施石油禁运令，以迫使对方在政治上屈服，令其视作经济支柱的石油出口陷于 停滞。据路透社报道，委内瑞拉国家石油公司已在酝酿减产，因为一来出口受阻，二来储油设施已 快"满仓"。 ·瑞士联邦委员会5日发表声明说，瑞士决定冻结委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及相关人员在瑞士持有的所有资 产。此项资产冻结令立即生效，有效期暂定为4年。 ·多家市场机构最新调查显示，2025年节日消费季法国人价格敏感度明 ...

地缘冲突波及的经济体2025年表现各不相同。巴勒斯坦基础设施损失巨大，大部分产业生产停摆、市场 活动受限，援助与重建需求是当前核心经济议题。也门经济困境加剧，经济规模预计进一步收缩。伊朗 经济几乎陷入停滞甚至面临衰退压力。叙利亚和黎巴嫩经济在2024年收缩的基础上有望温和增长。以色 列经济则在2024年显著放缓后开始提速，高科技产业复苏明显。 海湾合作委员会国家的经济2025年增速加快、活力提升，这得益于结构性改革和数字创新。"多元化和 数字化转型不再是可选项，它们对长期稳定和繁荣至关重要，对非石油部门的战略投资和创新是未来维 持经济增长和稳定的关键。"世界银行海湾合作委员会主任萨法·塔耶布·科加利说。 埃及和摩洛哥引领北非国家经济增长。中东地区经济大国土耳其在国内消费和服务业推动下也实现经济 稳健增长。 （来源：经济参考报） 2025年的中东 经济仍处于地缘 冲突破坏与多元 化转型交织的历史 阶段。冲突对经济 的影响尚未退 去，多 元化转型已成为拉动经济增长的中坚力量，使整体呈现出更具韧性的态势。 据国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计，2025年中东和北非地区经济增长将达到3.3%。IMF中东和中亚部主 任吉哈 ...

类似今年上涨72%并创新高的黄金，投资者同样在实物和纸面上囤积白银，希望借此储存财富，并对冲 美元等货币的风险。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 黄金和白银价格12月份持续飙升。美国知名投资人预测，贵金属的猛涨行情，可能预示美国金融存在危 机。 白银价格今年涨幅超过一倍，超过黄金。美国纽约商品期货交易所白银期货价格在29日亚洲交易时段首 次突破每盎司80美元关口，再创新高，超过一桶原油的价格。原油价格在26日报收于每桶56.74美元。 黄金和白银价格12月份持续飙升。美国知名投资人预测，贵金属的猛涨行情，可能预示美国金融存在危 机。 与此同时，珠宝商、医疗器械制造商、电动汽车生产商、数据中心开发商，尤其是太阳能电池板工厂， 都对白银保持着旺盛需求。美国花旗集团分析师估计，太阳能行业消耗全球近30%的白银年产量。 与此同时，印度投资者对白银的需求激增。《华盛顿邮报》本月早些时候报道，印度央行近期决定允许 发放以白银为抵押品的贷款。据金属行业媒体金拓新闻网站报道，印度现在是全球第二大白银投资市 场。 美国《华尔街日报》27日报道，新开采的白银不太可能大量涌入市场。世界上纯粹的银矿 ...

截至2025年12月30日，美元兑加元报1.3684，微跌0.0438%，当日高低点1.3695/1.3684，延续震荡下 行。汇价此前逼近12月26日五个月低点1.3642，受美联储宽松预期、加央行偏鹰及油价反弹影响，短期 承压显著。 美加央行政策分化是汇价核心驱动力。美联储2025年三次降息累计75基点，利率区间至3.50%-3.75%； 虽官方预测2026年仅再降息一次，但市场仍押注宽松。CME FedWatch显示1月维稳概率81.7%，而12月 降息遭三位官员反对，内部分歧限制美元跌幅。 加央行则中性偏鹰，年内四次降息累计100基点后，12月连续两月维持利率2.25%，行长表态当前利 率"合适"，引发2026年加息预期。加拿大三季度GDP增长2.6%，11月就业超预期、失业率降至6.5%， 经济韧性支撑政策立场。美加利差收窄成为美元兑加元承压主因。 作为商品货币，加元走势高度关联油价，加拿大作为美最大原油供应国，油价直接影响其贸易与货币估 值。近期WTI原油反弹至57.20美元/桶，中东局势提供支撑。虽2025年油价累计跌15.2%，但WCS与 WTI价差收窄及供应链担忧，推动资金流入加元资产。 技 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3676, reflecting a narrow fluctuation pattern driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Canada, alongside factors such as international oil price volatility, economic fundamentals, and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Bank of Canada has completed four rate cuts totaling 100 basis points this year and maintained the overnight rate at 2.25% on December 10, indicating a neutral to hawkish stance that has led to market expectations of a rate hike in 2026 [1]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve has implemented its third rate cut of the year in December, lowering the key interest rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, with internal dissent highlighting significant policy divergence within the Fed [2]. - The contrasting monetary policies of the two central banks are a primary driver of the ongoing pressure on the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Canada's economy showed resilience with a 2.6% annualized GDP growth in Q3, reversing previous contractions, and a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.5%, the lowest in nearly 16 months [1]. - The Canadian dollar, as a commodity currency, is influenced by oil prices, which have declined by 15.2% since 2025, impacting Canada's oil export revenues and providing some support for the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently characterized by bearish dominance but with slowing momentum, as indicated by technical indicators [3]. - Short-term price fluctuations are expected to remain within the range of 1.3740-1.3830, with key support at 1.3720-1.3680 and resistance at 1.3830 and 1.3890 [3]. - Some institutions are beginning to adopt a bullish outlook on the Canadian dollar, anticipating it could rise to 77 cents against the USD by 2026 due to factors such as narrowing interest rate differentials and enhanced economic resilience [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the USD/CAD exchange rate will depend on multiple factors, including guidance from the Bank of Canada on interest rate hikes, core inflation data, and statements from Federal Reserve officials [3]. - Additionally, OPEC+ production policies, international oil price trends, and developments in US-Canada trade negotiations will be critical variables influencing the exchange rate [3]. - The ongoing divergence in monetary policies, oil price recovery, and the pace of Canada's economic recovery will determine the long-term direction of the exchange rate [3].

Group 1: Major Economic Events - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, while the European Central Bank maintained rates unchanged [1] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 50,000 [58] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly below market expectations, influenced by data quality issues due to the government shutdown [60] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Movements - The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly, while the COMEX silver price surged significantly [1] - The US dollar index increased by 0.3% to 98.71, with most currencies depreciating against the dollar, including the Japanese yen which fell by 1.2% [25] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.6% to $56.5 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 1.2% to $4,354.0 per ounce [36][42] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index showed mixed performance across sectors, with consumer discretionary, materials, and healthcare sectors rising by 1.0%, 0.6%, and 0.6% respectively, while energy and real estate sectors fell by 2.9% and 1.4% [5] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a decline across most sectors, with technology and consumer discretionary sectors dropping by 2.8% and 3.0% respectively [9] Group 4: Bond Market Trends - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell by 3.0 basis points to 4.16%, while yields in other developed markets showed mixed trends [15] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly increased, with Turkey's yield rising by 175.5 basis points to 30.32% [20]

Key Points - The article discusses the recent economic developments, including the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data [2][64][76] - The Japanese government has approved a significant economic stimulus plan amounting to 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 118 billion USD), marking a 31% increase from the previous year's budget [64] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, which was above market expectations [74] - The U.S. CPI for November was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, significantly below market expectations, influenced by data quality issues due to the government shutdown [76] Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data Asset Classes - The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly, while COMEX silver saw a significant increase [2] - Major stock indices in developed markets showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 up 0.1% and the Nasdaq up 0.5% [3] - The WTI crude oil price decreased by 1.6% to 56.5 USD per barrel, while COMEX gold increased by 1.2% to 4,354.0 USD per ounce [2][45] Economic Data - The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs in November, surpassing expectations [74] - The CPI for November was reported at 2.7%, significantly lower than expected, with core CPI at 2.6% [76] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, while the European Central Bank maintained its rates [2][64] Commodity Prices - Most commodity prices saw increases, with WTI crude oil down 1.6% and COMEX silver up 9.4% [45][52] - The prices of various metals, including LME copper and aluminum, also increased [52]