美联储降息预期下降，商品有何影响 20251126 摘要 美联储 12 月降息预期分歧加大，官员对经济数据解读和未来政策路径 存在明显差异，鸽派认为劳动力市场疲软支持降息，鹰派则担忧通胀反 弹，政策不确定性增加。 国内宏观经济方面，11 月 LPR 维持不变，央行认为货币政策仍有空间 但边际效率下降，年内进一步宽松可能性不大，或留待明年发力稳增长。 黑色商品分化，煤焦类商品大幅下跌，焦煤单周跌幅达 9%，焦炭跌幅 超 4%；铁矿石表现相对强劲，全周上涨约 1.2%。螺纹钢和热卷市场整 体表现反复，处于窄幅震荡整理状态。 铁矿石近期表现强于其他品种，但随着基差修复完成及发运增长带来到 港量上升，未来供需矛盾可能加剧，短期内价格可能呈现宽幅震荡走势。 贵金属延续偏弱格局，金银比徘徊在 81 附近，美联储内部分歧导致 12 月降息概率降低，俄乌、中美关系缓和等因素使得黄金中短期缺乏上涨 动力，或维持高位震荡。 原油市场中期供给宽松趋势压制油价反弹，地缘政治因素短期扰动，但 中长期供需错配仍是主要矛盾，IEA 预测今年及明年全球原油供应过剩 压力依然存在。 生猪现货价格持续下行，养殖户亏损，出栏节奏高位但消费未显著增 ...

Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, resulting in an estimated loss of $1.5 trillion, with the overall impact to be assessed over weeks or months[4] - The IMF predicts that the U.S. GDP growth for Q4 will be below the previous forecast of 1.9% due to the shutdown[4] - U.S. October PPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while core PPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations[4][5] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Fed officials are divided on interest rate decisions, with some advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while others prefer to maintain current rates[4] - The probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in December decreased from 66.9% to 44.4%[5] - The weighted average expected policy rate for the end of 2026 increased from 2.90% to 2.96%[5] Group 3: Global Market Trends - U.S. stocks saw modest gains, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones up by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.5%[11] - European stocks rose, with the STOXX 600 index increasing by 1.8% driven by healthcare valuations[11] - The dollar index weakened by 0.26%, while the euro and pound strengthened against the dollar[20] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.2% and 0.6%, respectively, closing at $64.4 and $60.1 per barrel[18] - Gold prices increased by 1.9%, reaching $4,071.1 per ounce, while silver surged by 6.8% to $52.0 per ounce[18]

在美联储官员释放鹰派信号叠加市场对人工智能（AI）企业业绩"泡沫"的担忧等因素下，全球股市上周 遭遇"黑色星期五"。作为全球首个开市的主要市场，中东股市率先为本周的交易"试水"。 数据显示，埃及股市涨超2.5%，创收盘历史新高，沙特、卡塔尔股指跌1%，表现差异明显。 中东市场表现分化 另外，美银和野村已经在研报中预计，美联储将在12月按兵不动。 周日（11月16日），沙特证交所全股指数微幅跳空低开之后持续震荡，之后持续下跌，截至当日收盘， 指数收跌1.12%，报11052.61点。个股方面，沙特阿美（ARAMCO.AB）收跌1.08%，报25.58沙特里亚 尔。 在沙特上市的Albilad南方东英MSCI香港中国股票ETF收跌0.63%，报12.54沙特里亚尔。 埃及证交所EGX 30指数表现强势，收涨2.54%，报41211.27点，指数突破11月9日所创收盘历史最高位 40821.96点，尾盘一度刷新盘中历史最高位至41342.05点。 卡塔尔证交所指数收跌1.01%，连续三个交易日下挫，报10846.84点；科威特证交所超级市场价格回报 指数收跌0.57%，报9388.58点。 美联储12月降息概率跌破 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the price trends and key support and resistance levels of various futures contracts on November 13, 2025 [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro News and Trading Alerts - China - Spain leaders met and witnessed the signing of 10 cooperation documents in economic, technological, and educational fields [7]. - Chinese and US economic officials emphasized the importance of economic and trade cooperation [7]. - Chinese officials welcomed foreign retail enterprises to invest in China [7]. - Seven Chinese government departments jointly issued an opinion to strengthen science and technology education in primary and secondary schools [7]. - The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill, potentially ending the 43 - day government shutdown [8]. - The US Treasury Secretary announced upcoming "substantial" tariff news and a "tariff dividend" plan [8]. - Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [8]. 2. Commodity Futures - related Information - On November 12, US and Brent crude oil futures prices fell, with OPEC lowering its global oil demand forecast [9]. - On November 12, international precious metal futures generally rose, driven by factors such as the approaching end of the US government shutdown and geopolitical risks [9]. - On November 12, most London base metals rose [10]. - The EIA adjusted its 2025 and 2026 crude oil price forecasts [10]. - The IEA believes that global oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050 [11]. - OPEC expects the oil market to achieve supply - demand balance in 2026 [11]. - The Simandou iron ore project officially started production, with proven reserves of 4.4 billion tons [11]. - On November 12, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar and the RMB central parity rate both rose [11]. - On November 12, the US dollar index fell slightly, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [12]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.1 Stock Index Futures - On November 12, the main contracts of stock index futures showed different trends, with overall weak rebounds [12][13][14]. - A - share markets were volatile on November 12, with some sectors rising and others falling [14]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investors Conference was held, with officials announcing measures to optimize the capital market [15][16]. - Overseas investors' holdings of A - shares have increased, and institutions are generally optimistic about A - shares in 2026 [15][16]. - On November 12, the Hong Kong stock market rose, with different performances among sectors [16]. - On November 12, US and European stock markets showed different trends, and institutions are cautious about the future performance of US stocks [17]. - It is expected that stock index futures will oscillate and consolidate on November 13, 2025, and will have wide - range oscillations in November [18]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On November 12, the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures rose slightly, with weak rebounds [33][39]. - On November 12, the central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 130 billion yuan [34]. - On November 12, short - term Shibor rates declined [34]. - It is expected that the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will have wide - range oscillations on November 13, 2025 [36][40]. 3.3 Precious Metal Futures - On November 12, the main contract of gold futures had a slight decline, with weakening upward momentum [40]. - On November 12, the main contract of silver futures rose significantly, hitting a record high [48]. - It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contracts of gold and silver futures will have strong wide - range oscillations, and the silver futures will hit a record high. On November 13, 2025, both are expected to oscillate strongly [40][41][49][50]. 3.4 Base Metal Futures - On November 12, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, and tin futures rose slightly, with varying degrees of upward momentum [53][57][61]. - It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contracts of copper, aluminum, and tin futures will have strong wide - range oscillations. On November 13, 2025, they are expected to oscillate strongly [53][57][61]. 3.5 Other Commodity Futures - On November 12, the main contracts of polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, fuel oil, and PTA futures showed different trends [65][66][72][75][77][84][89][94][96]. - It is expected that on November 13, 2025, polysilicon and lithium carbonate futures will have wide - range oscillations; rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and PTA futures will oscillate weakly; crude oil and fuel oil futures will oscillate weakly [66][73][75][77][85][89][94][96].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has ended its shutdown after a bipartisan agreement was reached, impacting 670,000 federal employees who were on unpaid leave, while 1.52 million continued to work and receive pay, representing 52% of federal civilian employees [48][46][69] - The October ADP employment report showed an increase of 42,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 30,000, alleviating concerns about a weakening U.S. economy [60][57][69] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for October fell to 48.7, indicating contraction, while the services PMI rose to 52.4, suggesting stability in the job market [57][69] Group 2 - Global stock indices mostly declined, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% and the Nasdaq down 3.0%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.3% [1][8] - In the U.S. stock market, sectors such as energy, healthcare, and real estate saw increases of 1.5%, 1.3%, and 1.0% respectively, while information technology and consumer discretionary sectors fell by 4.2% and 1.5% [5][8] - Emerging market indices also experienced declines, with the Korean Composite Index down 3.7% and the Indian SENSEX30 down 0.9% [1][8] Group 3 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained stable at 4.11%, while yields in other developed countries increased, with France's yield rising to 3.46% and Germany's to 2.75% [12][17] - The dollar index decreased by 0.2% to 99.55, while most major currencies appreciated against the dollar, including the euro and yen [21][28] - Commodity prices mostly fell, with WTI crude oil down 2.0% to $59.8 per barrel and COMEX gold remaining flat at $3995.2 per ounce [32][38]

Core Insights - By the end of 2025, the market will continue to be overshadowed by the "data vacuum" and "policy divergence" in the US. The relatively certain macro trends before the end of the year are: 1) The Federal Reserve has shifted to a loose monetary policy, benefiting US Treasuries and gold; 2) The oil market is facing oversupply, negatively impacting oil prices; 3) China's policy remains stable, favoring the bond market and providing thematic opportunities for A-shares; 4) Europe and Japan lack endogenous growth momentum, with Japan's "high market trading" peaking and Europe's economy stagnating [3][5]. Stock Market - Increasing Divergence, Seeking Structural Oases - A-shares are currently in a phase of negotiation between policy expectations and economic realities, with market performance highly dependent on signals from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. The focus is shifting from "monetary easing" to "fiscal expectations," with expectations for a shift towards greater fiscal stimulus aimed at expanding domestic demand and building a modern industrial system [6]. - The US stock market's strong performance is primarily driven by a few tech stocks, contrasting with the deteriorating data vacuum and macroeconomic realities, facing significant correction pressure before the end of the year. The Federal Reserve's recent dovish actions have increased policy uncertainty, negatively affecting risk asset valuations [8][14]. - The Japanese stock market, driven by new Prime Minister's fiscal policies, has shown signs of fatigue, with recent profit-taking leading to a decline. The market is returning to fundamentals, and any global risk aversion, especially in the AI sector, could lead to significant volatility [16]. - European stock markets are lacking upward catalysts due to economic stagnation and a neutral central bank stance, with core economies like Germany and France facing growth challenges [21]. Bond Market - Turning Interest Rate Cycle, Seeking Balance of Safety and Yield - The US Treasury market is entering a rate-cutting cycle, with the yield curve showing a "non-typical" steepening, highlighting the value of long-term bonds. The Federal Reserve's recent dovish shift signals a significant opportunity for long-term US Treasuries [31][32]. - In the domestic bond market, the People's Bank of China is maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy, providing stable support for the bond market. The low correlation of Chinese bonds with global indices makes them a valuable safe haven amid geopolitical risks [37]. Commodity Market - The Game of Hedging and Oversupply - Gold prices are expected to recover after a healthy correction following a record high, with the long-term bullish logic remaining intact due to declining real interest rates and ongoing central bank purchases [41][43]. - The oil market is under pressure from oversupply, with prices expected to remain weak. The increase in production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries has led to a significant oversupply, overshadowing geopolitical risks [47][49]. Overall Asset Allocation Summary - The report suggests prioritizing assets that benefit from the clearest macro trends, such as US Treasuries and gold, while avoiding assets affected by uncertainties like the US data vacuum and AI bubble. The recommended allocation order is: 1) Safe assets benefiting from Fed easing (US Treasuries, gold); 2) Structurally independent opportunities (domestic bonds, Indian stocks); 3) Markets awaiting catalysts (Vietnam); 4) Risk assets facing stagnation or bubble peaks (US, Japanese, European stocks); 5) Cyclical commodities under supply pressure (oil) [52][53].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is actively promoting its accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), emphasizing its potential to enhance multilateralism and free trade amid rising unilateralism and protectionism [1][2] Economic Impact - Research from the Development Research Center of the State Council and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences indicates that China's accession to the CPTPP could generate economic benefits for member countries, regional cooperation, and the global economy [1] - The Chinese market's large scale is expected to provide significant growth opportunities for CPTPP members, enhancing the agreement's global influence [1] - The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimates that China's membership could increase member GDP by 0.2% to 1.1% and exports by 2.5% to 11.8% [1] - The Development Research Center projects that global real GDP could grow by 0.2% and trade volume by 2.8% as a result of China's accession [1] Regional Cooperation - China's entry into the CPTPP is anticipated to foster a more extensive and closely-knit production and supply chain system within the region, enhancing the breadth, depth, and convenience of industrial cooperation [1] - Key sectors such as oil, agriculture, and educational services are expected to gain new growth opportunities from this enhanced cooperation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is actively pursuing membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which is expected to positively impact global economic growth and trade [1][3]. Economic Impact - China's accession to the CPTPP is projected to increase global real GDP by 0.2% and trade volume by 2.8% [1]. - Research from two Chinese institutions indicates that China's membership could lead to GDP growth among CPTPP members ranging from 0.2% to 1.1% and export growth between 2.5% and 11.8% [3]. Regional Cooperation - Joining the CPTPP is anticipated to enhance the formation of larger and more integrated supply chains within the region, benefiting industries such as oil, agriculture, and educational services [3]. Commitment to Open Economy - The Chinese government emphasizes its commitment to expanding high-level foreign trade and hopes that CPTPP members will recognize the positive significance of China's membership [5].

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth rate at constant prices in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - Manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year [1] - Non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in October 2025 was 50.1%, up slightly from 50.0% in the previous month but down from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - China's S&P Manufacturing PMI in October was 50.6, down from 51.2 in the previous month, with the expansion trend slowing [2] - In the first three quarters, the added value of large-scale electronic information manufacturing increased by 10.9% year-on-year, outperforming the overall industry and high-tech manufacturing [2] - China and the EU held export control dialogue consultations in Brussels, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [2] 2.2 Metals - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China suspended and then resumed its gold accumulation business on November 3 [5] - Lithium carbonate prices have been rising recently, driven by unexpected demand and accelerated inventory depletion [6] - The three-month zinc futures on the London Metal Exchange reached $3,097 per ton, a new high since December 2024 [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Baosteel adjusted its production capacity target to "over 80 million tons", focusing on synergy and value creation [8] - Global iron ore shipments from October 27 to November 2 decreased by 174.5 tons compared to the previous period [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On November 3, the main contract of US crude oil closed higher after OPEC+ decided to suspend the planned production increase in Q1 2026 [9] - BP's CEO expects electricity demand to grow from 1% to 10% of the global economy in the next 5 - 10 years, driven by AI [9] 2.5 Agricultural Products - As of last Thursday, the planting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 47% of the expected area [11] - India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year soared by 61.6% year-on-year to a record 5.56 million tons [11] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On November 3, the central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan [12] 3.2 Key News - China's S&P Manufacturing PMI expansion slowed in October, but upcoming policies may support the index [13] - Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth [15] - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5 - 10 in Shanghai [15] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed narrow fluctuations, with long-term bonds performing slightly better [19] - The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly declined, and the 30-year main contract fell 0.11% [19] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1225 against the US dollar on November 3, down 90 points from the previous trading day [24] - The US dollar index rose 0.15% to 99.87 in New York trading [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market will likely remain range-bound, and investors should focus on medium-term, high-coupon credit bonds [25] - Yangtze River Fixed Income expects the bond market to recover in Q4, with the yield of the 10-year treasury bond (tax-exempt) potentially falling to 1.65% - 1.7% [25] 4. Stock Market Key News - A shares rebounded after hitting a low, with Hainan Free Trade Zone and AI application themes leading the gains [30] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3,976.52 points, and the total turnover of A shares was 2.13 trillion yuan [30] - The Hang Seng Index rose 0.97% to 26,158.36 points, and southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$5.472 billion [30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of "narrative trading" on asset pricing, emphasizing that asset pricing is influenced not only by fundamentals but also by popular narratives such as the restructuring of the dollar credit system and the new technological revolution [1][12]. Group 1: Narrative Economics - The influence of narratives on economic phenomena consists of a series of elements: a popular, easily spread story, public behavior, and an epidemiological model for macro-level dissemination [2][16]. - The concept of "herding behavior" is used to illustrate how narratives affect micro-level decision-making, with varying strengths across different phases of narrative development [2][18]. Group 2: Herding Effect in Asset Allocation - Traditional studies of herding behavior focus on individual stocks and short-term market sentiment, but the current narrative-driven environment poses challenges for asset allocation due to the breakdown of continuity in global fiscal, monetary, and trade environments [3][20]. - The article suggests that the herding effect can be quantified and applied to investment portfolio optimization and asset timing strategies [3][20]. Group 3: Measurement of Herding Effect - Four common indicators of herding behavior are identified: Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD), the quadratic coefficient of return dispersion, standard deviation of beta coefficients, and cross-correlation [4][23]. - The CSAD index, which measures the deviation of asset returns from the average, indicates the presence of herding behavior when returns cluster around a certain average level [4][23]. Group 4: Current State of Herding Effect - The CSAD index for major asset classes shows a right-skewed distribution, indicating a tendency for extreme herding behavior, with a mean-reverting characteristic suggesting that extreme trends are difficult to maintain [5][28]. - Since May 2025, the CSAD has decreased significantly, indicating a rapid herding effect, but has started to rebound slightly, suggesting a potential shift towards more balanced asset performance [5][28]. Group 5: Strategy Integration - The article proposes integrating the herding factor into a macro risk parity framework, which has shown superior annualized returns compared to traditional models [6][34]. - The new framework suggests increasing allocations to equities and commodities while reducing bond exposure, indicating a shift in investment strategy based on herding behavior [6][34]. Group 6: Domestic Equity Market Analysis - The herding effect in the domestic equity market, as measured by the CSAD, has shown a decline in right-skewness, indicating lower dispersion compared to historical levels [7][40]. - The herding effect has gone through phases of fermentation, intensification, and now a slight loosening, suggesting a gradual return to individual rationality among investors [7][40].