（Re uters） 中国人民币对美元汇率上升。中国借助稀土出口管制等手段迫使美国做出让步，在这种情况下，美国再 次大幅提高关税的可能性大大降低。从中美的利息差来看，同样进入了人民币的相对价值容易上升的局 面。但中国人民银行似乎在进行调控…… 中国人民币对美元汇率上升。最近升至1美元兑7.10元以上，徘徊在约10个月来的高位。市场对中美关 税等摩擦的担忧消退，人民币抛售压力相较于此前有所缓解。由于中国经济增长率保持在5％以上，被 认为中国允许人民币出现一定程度的升值，未来可能会继续保持温和升值态势。 人民币对美元汇率在上周曾一度达到1美元兑7.1019元，出现了马上突破1美元兑7.1元这一关口进一步实 现人民币升值的局面。这是2024年11月以后约10个月以来的最高人民币升值、美元贬值水平。本周汇率 也主要徘徊在1美元兑7.110～7.114元。 今年4月上旬，人民币汇率曾跌至1美元兑7.3518元，创下2007年以后18年来的人民币贬值、美元升值最 高水平。当时美国特朗普政府对中国征收大幅超过100％的额外关税，由于对中国经济的前景充满担 忧，市场上抛售人民币的动向扩大。 后来，中美于5月就双方将额外关税下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the three major RMB exchange rate indices indicates a weakening of the Chinese yuan against a basket of currencies, with the CFETS index hitting its lowest level since December 2020 [1][2]. Exchange Rate Indices - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index is reported at 95.36, down 0.56% week-on-week, marking a low not seen since December 2020 [1][2]. - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index stands at 100.73, down 0.78% week-on-week, the lowest since July 2023 [1][2]. - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index is at 90.21, down 0.54% week-on-week, the lowest since August 2020 [1][2]. Market Context - The geopolitical situation and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have contributed to a decline in the US dollar, which fell 1.52% last week to 97.26, its lowest in nearly three years [5]. - Non-USD currencies saw gains, with the Swiss franc rising 2.35%, the British pound up 1.97%, and the euro increasing by 1.7% [5]. - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1711, down 126 basis points for the week, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1729, down 65 basis points, a decline of 0.09% [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the future trajectory of the RMB is closely tied to the outlook for the US dollar, with a clear direction for gradual appreciation of the RMB in the medium to long term [6]. - Li Liuyang, Chief Analyst at CICC, indicates that the RMB exchange rate will maintain a moderate appreciation in a weak dollar environment, supported by stable exchange rate policies [5][6]. Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to May, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 27,204.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to the previous four months [7]. - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to May, total operating revenue of state-owned enterprises was 328,062.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while total profits were 16,514.5 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the CFETS RMB exchange rate index increased by 0.43% to 95.92 as of June 20 [1] - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index rose by 0.58% to 101.51 [2] - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index saw an increase of 0.39% to 90.75 [2]